EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVI
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
/in | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Also, I'd definitely say we should lynch people who dont want pre-game policy discussions. Seems awfully scummy to me. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On August 31 2012 18:00 thrawn2112 wrote: This is probably (99% sure) going to be my last game. I wish you all glhf. Kreb are you suggesting a pregame lynch on our host kitaman27? Sounds fun.  | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself. Same thing for example if no one dies at night. If theres only a medic role, he now has pretty huge information. Once again, that seems to give the town a pretty big advantage. However if theres unknown amount of medics, town blockers and mafia blockers, it becomes much more interesting to try and find out what actually happened that night. So Im new and I like the roles at least. :p | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 01 2012 19:42 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: The cool thing about having a police with 100% accuracy is that it puts pressure on the maffia. While the town needs to figure out who's scum/townie, the mobsters need to figure out who's the police. I don't think playing police is as easy as you make it out to be. The police can get night killed, which means he needs to leave hints. If they're too vague the town won't be able to spot them. Many maffia games have been lost because the police doesn't manage to get his peaks across. At the same time, if they're too obvious, the mobsters will be able to spot him and kill him off. The town needs to combat this with leaving fake hints as police cover, which in turn will provide info to the town if a fake police is getting lynched. With the current setup I doubt that police covering is a good strategy, at least it's way less important, which removes a cool part of the game. The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15 - 4. Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start. Link to the mafia game library? Personally I looked at the ongoing mafia games thread and looked at ending posts. XX - Town win XXI - Mafia win XXII - Town win XXIII - Town win XXIV - Didnt find XXV - Town win 15-4 for mafia....? Edit (yes I know I cant do it when game starts =) ): Found XXIV thread. Town win. So we have 5-1 to town last 6 newbie mafias. I'd definitely not want a 100% cop then... | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Example: A is twonie and B is mafia. B tries to kill A during the nightr but it doesnt succeed. The following things might have happened: - Medic saved A - Jailer saved A - Jailer blocked B - A is a Veteran and survived What message will B get at dawn? Will it simply say "Your kill was unsuccessful" and as such leave all options open? Or will it say, "target was saved/target was not there/you were blocket/attack was successful but target survived" to distinguish between the four options? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 01 2012 21:53 thrawn2112 wrote: I think you reversed the role of A and B somewhere in there, that situation was kinda confusing Yea I fixed it in an edit. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 01 2012 22:01 Toadesstern wrote: Roleblocks are dealt with prior to night actions. Kind of like a 2 stage process. Firstly all roleblock actions are dealt with. Next thing is everything else. So if you roleblock someone who was about to shoot you that shot won't happen to begin with, so obviously the guy who would have been shot, if not for the RB, won't end up getting a notification because nothing happened to him to begin with. + Show Spoiler [confusion!] + A Jailer is not allowed to target himself but even if he was it wouldn't work because he'd target himself, which would end up roleblocking himself and prevent him from jailing himself in stage-1 of the night I guess? B doesn't get a message at all unless he was roleblocked. So if he get's a roleblock message and his target is still alive it's fairly self-explanatory that his shot wasn't triggered because of the roleblock. If he ended up shooting someone but the target survived (without being roleblocked himself) he won't get a notification either because the shot was successful. It's just that it took away the protection and not the life of his target. So at that point B has no clue wether he shot a vet or someone being protected. So 1, 2, 4 are undistinguable (is that a word?  ) while 3 recieves a "blocked" message!Thanks! | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Morning everyone, this thread got started nicely overnight it seems. About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers. Obviously the chance of getting a scum right on the first day is limited, but generally it keeps the discussion going. You're also not necessarily sacrificing someone important if you're lynching an inactive townie either. Overall it seems like the best of all the options. Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum. (Im gonna have to get used to not editing posts too :p Im way too used doing that!) | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Ok, here we go. Comments on people in order of appearance on the player list! 1) KillingTime Pretty good post. Somewhat agreeing with the reads on Sonic and Jacob (both careful but active posters). Not agreeing on Xatalos. Slight town read. 2) drazak Nothing. Just agreeing. 3) kushm4sta Most information about so far. Two options: A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations. B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial. --- Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains. 4) WeeTee One post. Nothing really. 5) thrawn2112 Most thoughtful posting so far. Nothing which really points either way. Could maybe argue he had no reason to step into my defense had he been mafia. If so, he should have preferred to leave it, So possibly a very slight townread for that reason. Seemingly asset-if-town and dangerous-if-mafia though. Posting seem to be similar to his previous posts (as town then). 6) Xatalos Long post, not much else than agreeing and questioning. Also agreeing with senseless post by kush. Agreeing with senseless posting is however more "mafia-ish" than senseless posting itself. Very slight mafia read. Is this what you would call FoS? =) 7) Kville Nothing. 8) Cubu Two short posts. Nothing really. 9) Kreb Myself! 10) Stutters695 No posts. 11) JacobStrangelove Bunch of posts. Not much worth mentioning though. Thoughtful but careful posting. Not actively defending me as thrawn but still not buying the kush posts. Careful being the key word. Nothing worth drawing conclusions on but definitely something worth keeping in mind should this habit change. Too bad he doesnt have a posting history to look at. :p 12) Sonic Death Monkey Solid posting. Also careful though. Seems to have good ideas. Possibly a bit early conclusions, but hes at least aware of it. Ind the end, not much really. Also without history. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Im not sure what words the rest of you prefer. But to me, first day is gonna be almost random. It would be incredibly interesting to know what kind of "mafia hit rate" games have on first day. Because with 9 townies and 3 other mafias, you'd be hitting mafias 25% of the time if D1 lynch was random. And quite frankly I really doubt you're ever gonna get much higher hit rate than that. Maybe even lower. Recent newbie games also supports 25%, although the sample size is obviously VERY small. So to me, I got 11 people I can vote for and 3 mafias. Thats 27%. To me, a "slight" read on someone is if I maybe consider it to be 30 or 35% chance of him being a mafia (mind you, still below 50%). A "medium" read would be closer to if I believe its 50%. A "strong" read would maybe be, I dunno, 75%. When people post they got "solid" or "strong" read on day 1 after 1 post, Im honestly totally going O.O (yes I did exactly that). And I cant help counter-asking, what exactly is a "slight" read for you in that case? Face it, D1 is gonna be a mostly random vote on very small reads. Our chance of hitting wont go up to 50% or anything. Its the name of the game. So since there wont be any strong reads (what I'd call strong), slight reads are better than nothing. Voting on a slight read isnt good, but its the least bad option we have D1. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + You do realize the deadline is very far? Yes. And I have no idea why you would imply I didnt. Question to kush: Why such aggressive, borderline unpleasant, posting due to one post by one person on D1? Try to ignore the fact that this is coming from the guy you accused. Im trying to find out why you would think that KIND of posting was appropriate. You could have expressed your suspicions in a much nicer and more composed way without almost ridiculing me (and maybe got more support for your claim then?). Why did you choose such agressive posting? + Show Spoiler + Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why? I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over. Question to Xatalos regarding this: + Show Spoiler + This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate. If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this: Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. (Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".) Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt). But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational . Confused mafia not knowing how to get stop the bandwagon is just as good of a possibility. He seems to be the most "scared" of getting lynched by turning left and right in his defence, and that is more of a mafia-sign to me.Drazak, Weetee and Stutters started posting. None of them really convincingly (drazak maybe more than the rest). But then again, I'd have 8 or 10 voting candidates should I vote on people who hasnt convinced me of being townish. Kville kinda still has a chance to redeem himself. Dont know if I should just cast my vote and change it later if needed or just wait until later. I guess I'll cast it for now and see what happens. So Im voting for Cubu in the voting thread. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 03 2012 17:57 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: That's both fair points. I don't see lists as inherently bad though, we just need to evaluate the reasoning posters give for their lists (lists or no lists seems like a non-issue as long as we do our job). Personally I kinda like lists because they kinda "forces" out a lot of information. That means you can go back later in the game to try and get clues and try to see patterns. Its likely harder for a mafia to hide and be deceptive if he has to constantly update his thoughts and follow through with his reasonings. If you just post "well I kinda think A and B seems scummy and C seems a bit towny" you revealed much less information and as such dont need to back up as much information later. That said, it obviously doesnt have to be presented in a list format as long as you present the same amount of information. Its more that lists kinda force information out on the board. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu. Dont get ahead of things really. Still votes on other players, and my vote isnt final either. I'll have to figure out if I prefer voting early (and switching later if needed) or just voting late. But went with the early vote this time. | ||
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