Newbie Mini Mafia II

On January 03 2012 07:01 Bluelightz wrote:
Sheth is on a roll @@ this is his 3rd game already lol

On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta.

On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)

Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....

Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.

Also...

What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?

On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.

Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.

Player List:
1.CookieMaker

For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.

2.Liquid`Sheth

Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.

3.AnxiousHippo

Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.

5.Tunkeg

Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.

6.Jitsu

Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.

7.Xeris

All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.

8.Gretorp

Same as above, neutral.

9.Gonzaw

Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.

10.Blurry

Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.

11.Probulous

Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.

12.CatsnHats

Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!

I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.

On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote:


I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly)

On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:
About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy.

Anyways: back to the game,

1: Cookiemaker
AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me.

2: Sheth
Theres one post by him that caught my attention:



This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum.

Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell.

3: AnxiousHippo

Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral.

4: Cephiro

Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him.

5: Tunkeg

Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him.

6: Jitsu

I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute.

On January 05 2012 12:25 Probulous wrote:


Hang on, this part is really bad


Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment.