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Newbie Mini Mafia II
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Liquid`Sheth
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Liquid`Sheth
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Liquid`Sheth
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On January 03 2012 07:01 Bluelightz wrote: Sheth is on a roll @@ this is his 3rd game already lol Play some too? :D | ||
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The possibility of having a RGN random generated number lynch has been talked about in a lot of other mafia games as a way to start off the game. Also, all of this talk of No-Lynch vs Lynch is silly. Not for most of the reasons talked about yet, but because we want everyone to talk, so putting pressure on someone is where you find the mistakes. ESPECIALLY in a game full of newbies. There will be a lynch. Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read. This is invaluable to us, and please use any reads you have on me. I'm actually going to try and post like Arctocod did in our last game. CatsnHats, welcome to your first game of mafia. You say "Not lynching unless reasonably certain". This is a scummy thing to say, as its leaning towards not lynching today. You realize there is no way to be "reasonably certain" on day one. Get it together and find some scum, or I'm picking you for our day one lynch. | ||
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On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta. Yep its fun. You're still not posting anything useful. | ||
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As of now, I'm going to sleep. So far I've seen one post that worries me. Will tell you guys in the morning :D! | ||
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Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? | ||
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I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote: I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly) Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. | ||
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On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. I said this because in the last game we played together I was scum and he was town. Thats why its worded that way. Its just a claim that he has recent experience with me and I have with him. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:25 Probulous wrote: Hang on, this part is really bad Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment. Ok, I kinda agree with this too. I'd thought that anyone willing to start a lynch for a scum (If they were scum) would be crazy or bad. However in this set up with the KP always at one, I geuss its probably not a bad idea to lynch off a mafia first round. Or second round or whatever as long as your the one who brings up the case it should make you more townie. And honestly I still think it is going to make you crazy townie if he flips scum. However arguments like "well he started off the train on killing XXXX and he was mafia, so you must be town" really shouldn't be used here. As unless the mafia has a role (Roleblocker) hes not that important except for in the percentages game. The percentage game is still pretty important though. I don't see mafia starting a bus on one of their players right off the bat. It'd be too meta for me. Percentage wise (and with correct manipulation) its rare that first day lynches are mafia. And it really hurts mafia to lose one of the 3, when theres 9 town left. 2-8 or 3-8, those 3 left over can be so convincing. And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!! | ||
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Don't base me being "Liquid`Sheth" on any reads here. I play mafia to WIN. I'm going to kill people heartlessly. You won't get out of an argument with me because I'm feeling nice. Its stupid to just trust me because that I'm someone you've watched. If I was streaming me playing mafia, I'd be the IdrA of mafia. Only scum would not want to lynch me based on me being "Sheth", it fits inside that little bracket of not wanting to upset others and just staying in the middle. So basically next person who says something like "oh no sheth can't be mafia because hes sheth" I'm going to assume is a little scummier. Just figured I should post this as we win as a team and lose as a team, and I wouldn't want you guys who feel the same way about Xeris or Gretorp to not kill them because you know them. If there scummy, were going to steal Xeris' chair and not give Gretorp a hug. Ok, because I honestly can't stay mean for too long, I wuv u Duran + Andre <3 lol | ||
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And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you. I'm not starting a train on Gretorp. My post with gretorp is almost an inside joke with him. Its how we always start off every game. Are you mafia Andre?! Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that. Let me go re-read / filter cookie. His one post that stuck out to me was him defending Cephiro and saying he was extremely pro-town. Honestly though, with just remembering cookies lines I don't think anything really stuck out. Will go re-read now.. | ||
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Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment." I agreed that nothing conclusive comes out of a lynch. However even if your analysis is perfect it still says other things as well. Things that make someone look scummier or townier. You then say By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red. This post really confuses me. You say both "townie cred only exists from the scum you find" then "That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red" when you'd just said that it did matter if he flips red. Come on, it matters if he flips red for this reason. When mafia want the game to start they don't want to kill off their town members first. Its clear. So even if you want to show your difference from other members you put pressure on them. You put small to medium pressure on. So later if they flip you can say "oh look I pressured them!" You don't write up a huge proof and then really try to nail them to the wall. I feel like I'm talking too much about this, but it bothers me that your not see'ing the same things I am here and you are my towniest read. | ||
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