EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VI
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 28 2011 09:28 Ciryandor wrote: Also, we already have inactives as far as I've checked their forum activity... Edwin7, Sknowman, Toaddestern and a lurker in Fatesgod You forgot me. It's understandable why there are a fair amount of lurkers on the first day. Outside of zany, no one has done anything unusual, and we don't even know what the setup is yet. There's not a lot to add. | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 29 2011 10:25 Ciryandor wrote: I would still like explanations/excuses for inactivity from [...] JoshKirby Work + Gym. I'm finally back home at ~10 PM. Gonna vote now before dinner. Afterwards I'll see if there's anything I can add. ## Vote Edwin5 | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 29 2011 18:18 Ciryandor wrote: It's better to vote a potentially active (i.e. someone who has at least shown forum activity since the game started) person if the votes threaten to put them onto the lynch threshold, because this would force a response from them. This way, we get information from them and we can still get an inactive either via a late swing or a modkill. One can always lynch someone under pressure if they crack and do scumslips. I agree, since lynching a player who will be mod-killed is like performing a no-lynch this round. In the worst (and likely) case, the inactive player is a townie. Then there are 3 mafia and 8 townies tomorrow night. If everything goes well for mafia, they can win after 2 day cycles. If we lynch an active player, then there are 3 mafia and 7 townies tomorrow night. If everything goes well for mafia, they still have to play 2 day cycles. Furthermore, the detective has a better chance of finding a mafioso since there are less people to consider, and the doctor has a greater chance of saving someone. The downsides to killing an active player are 1) If there's a doctor they get one extra chance to save in the worst-case scenario. The chance of succeeding in that save is small, though (1/6). 2) We might kill the doctor/detective, and revealing their role probably won't help them since in 2/3rds of the setups they're by themselves and will get killed during the night. There's at most a 2/11 chance of that happening, though. Toadesstern is the only active player who's gotten a vote, so I'll vote for him this round. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE Toadesstern | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 30 2011 00:00 Ciryandor wrote: Why not zany? What do you think of him anyway, given that he's the only real read in terms of voting we have really got? And do explain the ratios? GM: Are we presuming that since this is a 12 person game that option 2 in the role set-up is out of the question, as it is made for an 11 person game? zany's suspicious, but nobody else has voted for him. Given the amount of activity it's easier to lynch Toadesstern than anyone else since someone's already voted for him. If people are willing to switch to zany I'll do so as well. Ratios: If we kill an inactive player who's already going to get modkilled, then unless we luck out and Edwin5 is mafia (1/4 chance), we'll enter the night with 3 mafia and 8 town. I'll write this as (3, 8). In this case the doctor has a 1/10 chance of picking the right person to save, and the detective has a 3/10 chance to pick a mafia member. In the worst case town keeps lynching town. This is how that would play out. (3,8) (1/10 chance of save, 3/10 chance of finding mafia) ---> (3,7) (3/10 chance of lynching mafia) ---> (3,6) (1/8 chance of save, 3/8 chance of finding mafia) --> (3,5) (3/8 chance of lynching mafia) --> (3, 4) (1/6 chance of save, 3/7 chance of finding mafia) --> (3, 3) (mafia win) If we kill someone who is active, though, in the worst case we end up with 3 mafia and 7 town. (3, 7) (1/9 chance of save, 3/9 chance of finding mafia) --> (3,6) (3/9 chance of lynching mafia) --> (3,5) (1/7 chance of save, 3/7 chance of finding mafia) --> (3,4) (3/7 chance of lynching mafia) --> (3,3) (mafia win) Therefore, in the worst possible case, town has better odds of saving, detecting, and lynching a mafioso while having the same number of days. If a doctor exists and you have faith in him, then a no-lynch could plausibly be the best choice. I did not realize that the 1 doctor/1 detective was still feasible since there were originally 11 players in that setup. That may help out the detective from being lynched, but only in that scenario (which we have a 1/4 chance of being in). [B]On September 29 2011 22:21 Toadesstern wrote: I mean really? we got 2 or 3 people who are trying to get some activity. Activity is good for town and you want to lynch someone active because he's active? I know that this is a beginners game but srsly, This is totally scum logic. They try to go for blues on day 1 which is going to be hard given there's so few town active, if they can't they're going for someone you gets the activity going because that's so valuable to town as well. I explained why the odds are better for town (in the worst case) if you lynch someone who is active. I did not go into too much detail, and that's my fault, but it's not "scum logic," just math. | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On September 30 2011 01:58 Toadesstern wrote: For the probabilities: Yeah that sounds legit but really isn't of course we get a higher chance to get a safe or a good dt check if few townies are alive and a lot scum are. Hell if there'd be 5 townies alive and 3 scum it would be a 3 out of 8 chance to check a scum and a 1 out of 5 chance to get a nice safe. Still you probably won't suggest to kill townies just to get better safe/check rates. Surely that's not what you're saying, but it's what it comes down to if you think through what you just said. I'm not saying that we kill townies on purpose. Think of it this way: 1. We can only kill mafia by lynching them. 2. If we vote for someone who is inactive (i.e. going to get modkilled), then we've basically lynched nobody. In the worst case we get 2 guaranteed lynchings. If the doctor saves, we get 3. 3. If we vote for someone who isn't going to get modkilled, then we have a chance of lynching a mafioso (unless they're all inactive, in which case we win anyway). In the worst case we still get 2 more guaranteed lynchings, so we don't have to rely on a save to get a 3rd chance on lynching a mafia member. 4. Unless you're risky it's better to lynch someone who won't get modkilled. On September 30 2011 01:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also note that "active" is not to be meant as "posting at all", but as "posting quite a bit", while lurking is more of a "yeah posted a bit but not really something" and being absend is having no posts at all. I meant "inactive" as in "will be modkilled by the end of the day." This is probably the source of the confusion. On September 30 2011 01:58 Toadesstern wrote: If that's not going to happen we probably should go and try to kill a lurker, the chances to hit a red are way higher that way (only lurking) I don't see how this true. There are many different ways to play a mafioso, and some require a lot of activity. It may be useful to boost participation, however. On September 30 2011 01:19 JoshKirby wrote: zany's suspicious, but nobody else has voted for him. Given the amount of activity it's easier to lynch Toadesstern than anyone else since someone's already voted for him. If people are willing to switch to zany I'll do so as well. Looks like this might happen. ##UNVOTE Toadesstern ##VOTE zany_001 | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
##VOTE zany_001 | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On October 04 2011 07:32 Toadesstern wrote: 1) I still got a grudge on Josh for trying to get a lynch on me with this stupid math thingy which was wrong (except for the part "let's kill someone who's not getting modkilled). It could be wrong in some way, but Toadesstern never gave a good reason why. Toadesstern posted that it was wrong because that would mean that town should keep lynching townies. The post actually said that, in the worst case, we'd keep lynching townies (on accident), and that we'd have a better chance of getting out of the worst case if we lynched somebody who wasn't going to get modkilled. On October 04 2011 07:32 Toadesstern wrote: As far as I am concerned I looked preeeeeetty much town at that point, like a 90% sure town and still he went for me for the sake of getting a lynch. He could easily go for zany in the first place (as we had a vote on him already I think) or established something on his own, like I did with my edwin vote to get at least a bit of information out of voting behaviors rather than the actual lynch itself as it was a modkill-lynch. 1) Unless you do something weird like zany then "looking like town" on the first day is meaningless. Mafia wants to look like town too, and there's very little information to call their bluff. 2) zany did not have a vote for him. A few posts above my vote was the following: On September 29 2011 14:14 sinani206 wrote: Day 1 Votecount jish17 (1) zany_001 Toadesstern (1) Zanfada Sknowman (1) FranzP Followed by two more votes for Ediwn5. There were also a couple votes for Edwin5 above that post which didn't get recorded. 3) I said the reason why I voted for Toadesstern in the same post: On September 29 2011 19:39 JoshKirby wrote: Toadesstern is the only active player who's gotten a vote, so I'll vote for him this round. On October 04 2011 07:32 Toadesstern wrote: 2) Jish and Josh both were the last to switch to zany on day1. That could be a mafia waiting to see how many votes he got and decide whether it's safe to vote zany or not. This is reasonable. However, I stated that I would vote for zany if people would actually vote for him (so that we could lynch a player who wouldn't be modkilled), and I ended up voting for him in the same day. It's a coincidence that I ended up switching after another person did. On October 04 2011 07:32 Toadesstern wrote: In my opnion Zanfa and I am town 99%. This makes me think that Toadesstern inspected Zanfada and found he was clean, but didn't want to say it so that the mafia wouldn't target him. If that's true, then jish17 has to be mafia. We don't have a lot of information on him except that he voted for zany twice, so I can't tell what he is. There's almost certainly no roleblocker (because no one claimed to be roleblocked yesterday), so we probably have no doctor. That would mean that we must lynch somebody today. I'm voting for jish17 unless he can convince me otherwise. ##Vote jish17 | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On October 04 2011 13:31 jish17 wrote: If I was mafia why would zany who we know is mafia push so hard for me to be lynched on day one? That doesn't really make sense. This is pretty confusing, but zany did a lot of weird things. What are your thoughts on the current situation, jish17? | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
It's up to Zanfada to decide now. | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
On October 05 2011 09:18 jish17 wrote:. Josh has done some pretty good scum lurking if u ask me. Please elaborate. On October 05 2011 09:18 jish17 wrote: How can I be mafia when I was the first person targeted for lynching by known scum? If I was mafia why would they try and make it so much easier for town to win by lynching one of there own day 1. They wouldn't it doesn't make sense. It'd be odd, but definitely possible. A couple scenarios: 1) Knowing that he'll be called out for using "clues," zany uses a clue to accuse you, sacrificing himself in order to make one of the mafia members look like a guaranteed townie. 2) zany is a troll player who simply likes causing havoc in the games he plays. The post where he accuses Toadesstern of being mafia could support this. The wide range of strategies mafia can use is why it's very difficult to win when there's no information from a doctor/detective. | ||
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JoshKirby
13 Posts
By the way, the statistics I posted about are pretty useless since the underlying assumptions are too simple to be accurate. | ||
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