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Hello all again. I'm ]343[ with yet another set of good excuses for why we don't have a real MSL post out before the Jaedong vs Zero match that's happening today! Though we're out of school now, I have work, flamewheel's been off at TL HQ (lucky... congratulate him on becoming blue!), nbaker has written something, but not enough for a whole post, and contagi0n (who we are borrowing from the non-existent OSL) has disappeared to some exotic land for a while. So umm... sorry!
Also, I decided to waste my 5000th post on this because I have nothing better to talk about [except maybe math, but no one wants to hear about that... plus I don't know any math.
Maybe if I had actually learned Galois theory instead of half-learning it I can maybe tell you the Main Theorem and some stuff about automorphism groups... ugh. Should've brought my algebra book home T.T] Be sure to check out my 4999th post as well, which did not contribute at all to the thread, but may prove amusing to some of you.Now for your viewing / arguing / flaming pleasure, without further ado, here's my set of predictions for the Semifinals of the ABCMart MSL!
Semifinal Predictions
Match A:
May 26, 2011, 1800 KST
Jaedong <Dante's Peak SE> ZerO
Jaedong <Circuit Breaker> ZerO
Jaedong <La Mancha> ZerO
Jaedong <Monte Cristo> ZerO
Jaedong <Dante's Peak SE> ZerO
May 26th 18:00 KST
Jaedong ZvZ
Overall: 153-51 (75.00%)
Last 10: 6-4 (L W W W W L W L W L)
ZerO ZvZ
Overall: 83-82 (50.30%)
Last 10: 6-4 (L W W L L W W L W W)
Head-to-head*: Jaedong 11-4 ZerO
May 26, 2011, 1800 KST
Jaedong <Dante's Peak SE> ZerOJaedong <Circuit Breaker> ZerOJaedong <La Mancha> ZerOJaedong <Monte Cristo> ZerOJaedong <Dante's Peak SE> ZerOMay 26th 18:00 KST
Jaedong ZvZ
Overall: 153-51 (75.00%)
Last 10: 6-4 (L W W W W L W L W L)
ZerO ZvZ
Overall: 83-82 (50.30%)
Last 10: 6-4 (L W W L L W W L W W)
Head-to-head*: Jaedong 11-4 ZerO
We kick off the MSL Semifinals with yet another ZvZ Bo5. It's the second this season, sixth this year, and twelfth since Calm won the Avalon MSL two years ago. Bleargh. At least a few have been interesting--Calm vs Jaedong in Avalon and Great vs ZerO in PDPop come to mind--so hopefully this one will exceed our expectations for the "coin-flip" micro-fest that is ZvZ.
The big favorite, as usual, is our KeSPA #1, Power Rank #1, all-time best ZvZer Lee Jae Dong. Boasting a peak ZvZ ELO of 2341 (the second-best Zerg killer of all time, edged out only by Flash; higher than Bisu's PvZ peak by 25 points and the next best ZvZer, YellOw, by 92), three separate 10+-game ZvZ win streaks in his career, and an amazing 35-7 (83%) record in the year leading up to his ELO peak--all in what is considered the biggest coinflip matchup in Brood War--JvZ has always been a wonder to behold. Alas, the Dong has fallen off recently, winning only 63% of his ZvZs this year!... How terrible for Jaedong! Sarcasm aside, and more pertinently, Jaedong dropped a ZvZ Bo5 just last season to Hydra, while losing 3 of his last 5 mirror matchups. People have called him "shaky" in the matchup. Boo-hoo. Jaedong is still Jaedong, and it would be a huge upset if he dropped the series.
Is ZerO the man to pull it off, just as Hydra did last year? Unfortunately, Kim Myung Woon has been cursed by an eternal 50% win rate in his mirror matchup.
From the MSL Ro8 Interview by doothegee:
- Do you know that both your career ZvZ rate and MSL rate are at 50%?
▲ Really was known for always staying at a 50% win rate, and I think it's become worse after he moved to our team. Recently he's been complaining that his bed is uncomfortable and sleeping in my bed instead, and I think I got his energy when he did that. Of course, I don't sleep with him, and I run away to some other room (laughs).
- Do you know that both your career ZvZ rate and MSL rate are at 50%?
▲ Really was known for always staying at a 50% win rate, and I think it's become worse after he moved to our team. Recently he's been complaining that his bed is uncomfortable and sleeping in my bed instead, and I think I got his energy when he did that. Of course, I don't sleep with him, and I run away to some other room (laughs).
But who doesn't love Zero, especially for quotes like the one above and for being so cute (except + Show Spoiler [here] +
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Milkis/PLWriteup05/scandalousnew.jpg)
But really, I don't think the Queen of Zerg will take out the Tyrant (so chauvinistic of me
). I predict he'll end up at 50% again. Too bad he passed 50-50 when he beat Calm...Prediction: Jaedong 3-2 ZerO
*In KeSPA-sanctioned games.
Match B:
June 2, 2011, 1800 KST
Hydra <La Mancha> 
Flash
Hydra <Monte Cristo> Flash
Hydra <Circuit Breaker> Flash
Hydra <Dante's Peak SE> Flash
Hydra <La Mancha> Flash
Hydra ZvT:
Overall: 20-15 (57.14%)
Last 10: 6-4 (L W W L L L W W W W)
Flash TvZ:
Overall: 131-55 (70.43%)
Last 10: 8-2 (W W W W L W L W W W)
Head-to-head: Hydra 0-1 Flash
June 2, 2011, 1800 KST
Hydra <La Mancha> FlashHydra <Monte Cristo> FlashHydra <Circuit Breaker> FlashHydra <Dante's Peak SE> FlashHydra <La Mancha> FlashHydra ZvT:
Overall: 20-15 (57.14%)
Last 10: 6-4 (L W W L L L W W W W)
Flash TvZ:
Overall: 131-55 (70.43%)
Last 10: 8-2 (W W W W L W L W W W)
Head-to-head: Hydra 0-1 Flash
The defending MSL champion faces off against the other best vZ player of all time. FvZ is a bit different from JvZ though, since Flash has the advantage of a more stable matchup. He has lost to only 10 Zergs since being eliminated from the Incruit OSL by GGPlay. That was October 2008. Other than his few random losses--featuring a failed 8rax against Hyuk, a tough loss to
Hydra, on the other hand, has been putting rumors of his weak ZvT to rest, scalping Mind, Bogus (did you know Bogus is actually pretty good!?), and even Light in the past month. Even more impressively, he played really well! Hydra ran the gamut from early lings against Light to beating Mind's late mechanic on La Mancha of all maps (and in case you didn't know, mech is why La Mancha is 26-18 TvZ...), showing that perhaps he has a chance after all. And of course, Hydra's goal this MSL is clearly to take out all the TBLS; he's already knocked out the Protoss ones, directly or otherwise, and his eye is on the goal. Effort's around to help, too, so don't count Hydra out quite yet. This is shaping up to be a great series.
I'd still rather not see a ZvZ final though (even if it's a Hydra vs Jaedong rematch.) And I'm sure Flash wouldn't either.
Prediction: Flash 3-2 Hydra
(edit:spelling)
