EPTTL Mafia XXXVIII
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
This is my first time playing so I don't really think I have the experience to be able to tell which mayor candidates are the best at analysis or the best leader etc. So I am going to base my vote purely on who I think is the most likely to be town. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 10 2011 13:59 Kavdragon wrote: Oh man, Protact, you just made my day. That was brilliant, but not quite thought through enough. The biggest problem, first and foremost, is that other assassins will be gunning for our body guards if you were Mayor/Pardoner. You may have two KP you are willing to lend us, but is it worth it if all the other assassins are going to be attacking townies because of it? Another problem is that putting you in the position of Pardoner OR mayor would give you information about the bodyguards, something that would be quite valuable to the mafia. Since your win condition is not the same as our, I don't think that it would be wise for us to trust you with that information. I loved the idea when I first read it, because I was thinking about how the assassins don't have a conflict of interest with the town, so it'd be great to get them working for us, but the problem becomes that we have to pick one of you to work with. That will set all the others against the town, and that counteracts the usefulness in a pretty big way. I do think making an assassin the mayor would turn the other assassins against the town but they are still extremely limited in what they can do since they only have 3 kills to use. But the 2nd point doesn't make any sense at all. What motive could the assassin possibly have to tell the mafia who the body guards were? The assassin would need to protect his bodyguards just as much as anyone. As long as his body guards are alive hes free to hunt the other assassins without there being any threat to his well being. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
The problem with using the medics on prot would be A) it would give the assassins incentive to attack townies, similar to if he was mayor, also we don't know the role numbers. If we only have 1 medic and there are 3 assassins or 4 assassins and 2 medics then the assassins could still kill prot and our medics power would be wasted. Btw this is assuming we can stack medics if that's not possible someone can correct me. Overall I think its too big of a risk to use the medics on prot and they would be better spent protecting the outspoken town members. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 10 2011 14:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote: good job saying nothing and repeating "pro-town" stuff other people said fos I wasn't trying to repeat what others said I was typing the posts up at the same time. You can see my other post where I basically said the exact same thing as you went up at the same time. If my posts are just saying nothing then I don't have any defense against that haha. I am just adding points I thought were valid. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 10 2011 14:50 DoctorHelvetica wrote: it's just shit everyone else said, sounds like you're regurgitating the points strong players have made to make yourself sound agreeable somehow. if you were typing up that small post at the same time we already went through all that then you're the worlds slowest typist I am really slow. On April 10 2011 14:51 GMarshal wrote: So, to counteract the fact that you have been adding little let me ask you a few little questions Who is your #1 town read? Not counting inactives, who is your number 1 scum read? Who is your favorite Starcraft Player? #1 town read you- a lot of people vouched they could tell if you were mafia. If you were all mafia I don't think they would put themselves out there backing you because if you did end up being mafia it could be traced right back to all of them so I assume their opinions are genuine. #2 kavdragon but only because I didn't agree with his points about the assassin. I don't have any other real analysis. #3 for bw it was mondragon for sc2 jinro I guess I am playing pretty terribly so far regardless of what I am. All I can say is this is my first time playing and I was genuinely trying to help. As the game goes on and I learn I will provide better analysis. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
I believe there are only 2 posts where this could be argued. The first one I made on p27 I basically said exactly what Dr.H did but I posted it at almost the exact same time as him because I was typing it up at the same time. The 2nd post that could look suspicious was on the top of p28. In that post I made 2 points that hadn't been mentioned previously. That A) if we were worried about prot not doing what we tell him if he becomes mayor we can control him with the medics. If we just give him medic protection then hes basically held hostage by us since if he doesn't do exactly what we want we can just not protect him and we don't lose anything. B) that its still a risk to use medics on him since we don't know the actual role numbers and the assassins may outnumber our medics to where we can't possibly protect him. Someone said I was wishy washy for listing both points but I was trying to discuss what our optimal play was so I listed the pros and cons as I saw them, I still gave my opinion that it was too risky to use our medics on him. I want to add I think it is suspicious how Dr.H is playing. It's in the best interest for the town for the new players to post as much as possible. They are the ones most likely to give up information and they will be most easily read by the vets so the more they post the better. With how Dr.H is playing it really discourages new people from posting out of fear that they may just be labeled as bandwagoning onto other pro town comments. Dr.H can say hes just putting pressure on people to force mistakes but I think attacking the new players would be a very viable strategy for an aggressive mafia. After they attack a new player its likely the new player will either attack them back blindly or will start to post less. Either of which would make the new player appear suspicious. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 11 2011 06:29 Robellicose wrote: Going to agree with you here. This just makes mig sooo much more suspicious. Also withdrawing my suspicion from you DocH. Your posts that made me worry have been outweighed by the solid ones since. Also Pandain, if you're going to fake roleclaim, on Day 1 no less, then we can't trust anything you're going to do for the rest of the game really. can we lynch him soon please? Why? I think all my points were accurate. I was trying to give my input into the situation, I don't think I just copied off what others said and I got shit on for supposed bandwagoning. And I think people should be suspicious of anyone who is attacking new players without any evidence. Even if DH is town I think hes going about it the wrong way. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
The votes surrounding gmarshal are suspicious. Most of the people who voted for him I don't trust (Kavdragon for posting a lot without any analysis I agreed with, Lanaia who has had several different excuses for why she hasn't posted and her only reason for trusting gmarshal is because of how he played previously, Robellicose, kenpachi, Serejai, M0nsterChef who all have posted very little and I don't have much information on, etc. Also I feel like the odds that DrH and prot are working together is extremely small. I believe prot is an assassin and his analysis seems very good to me, especially concerning the fact that gmarshal has tons of fluff posts and almost no actual pro town analysis. So with this information I feel like DrH is a safer bet to actually be town Here are a few small reads on people whose posts I looked through. DrH- Seems to me to likely be a town player. While his reads and plans have changed a lot throughout the game (originally supported gmarshal, didn't want to run for mayor at the start, originally had a strong town read on tnkted, changed the order of which he thought kav should be lynched, etc) most of his changes seem logical and I have agreed with them. I think anyone who is actively looking through the thread for information will have their reads change a lot so this seems more believable to me than someone whose opinion has constantly stayed the same such as gmarshal FOSing mr wiggles the entire game even tho I can't really see anything mr wiggles would have done to warrant the suspicion. aidnai -No super strong reads other than I agreed with his early criticisms of Drh and seeing him support Drh afterwords despite the criticism seems non mafia to me. Wiggles- Had the best argument for why revealing the body guards was a bad idea for the town and I liked his reasoning when responding to gmarshal. So I feel hes probably town. Kitaman- He was the first person to call out M0nsterChef for voting without posting. If M0nsterChef ends up being mafia it means kitaman is almost for sure town. Lanaia- Gave 2 excuses for why she hasn't been posting much (bad internet and watching movie with bf) also she implied that with school starting tuesday she won't be able to post much so an excuse for future lurking. Along with that both her large posts don't have much content and are just filler without any strong opinions other than she likes gmarshal and assassins are bad. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
Personally I do think there's a good chance ON is green but I only say that because I know I am green. If ON is red I don't really know what motivation he would have for saying I am green when he can easily just analyze me as red and most people will agree with him. Also this is the same situation for you GMarshal. If ON flipped green I don't think it would clear you of being a red at all. Especially since you said you would be fine lynching him and if you were both reds then that seems kind of suicidal. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 11 2011 22:06 redFF wrote: If ON flips red it confirms basically everyone thought of as red so far as red. If he flips green(highly unlikely) Then it clears a shit ton of people and we have a few people who would look very red, myself included. I think ON is the lynch which would give us the most information, regardless of how he flips. I disagree that if ON flips red it instantly confirms everyone as red. I say this once again because I know I am green. If he flips red I am probably going to be the next person lynched and then when I flip green you will be back to being uncertain about what everyone is. At the same time if he flips green it really doesn't clear anyone because like I said Gmarshal has already said hes fine lynching ON which he can easily say if hes red but I doubt he would ever say if they were both red. Finally I don't think if he flipped green it would even make you look that red. To me you don't really come off as red you just come as an overzealous green who views everything as black/white instead of realizing the situation probably isn't so clear cut. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 11 2011 22:52 DarthThienAn wrote: how do you know that anyone is green? The game just started... no actions have been done by any blues, so no one know what anyone else's alignment is. Right I don't know about anyone else for sure all I said was that I know that I am green obviously and I made a guess that there's a decent chance ON is green just because if he were red I figured he would have fingered me as red. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 12 2011 22:52 DropBear wrote: Pandain have you died or something? I believe BB said earlier pandain had dropped out and was in the process of being replaced. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
RedFF-obvious reasons that everyone has said already Barundar- I think most of his posts against DrH have been pretty logical. And hes the #1 suspect of DrH so I feel like regardless of the result we would get a lot of information from the check. tnkted- not saying hes scum but he changed his mayor vote twice right near the end of the voting so I think he would at least be worth checking out. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
So I still believe that prot is an assassin, however I think there's a good chance coag is mafia. If prot used his 1 dt check last night and hit a red I think the obvious play for him would be to role claim dt. Then if we lynch that player he called out and its right he can ask for medic protection. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 13 2011 15:57 Lemonwalrus wrote: ^^ For the 68th time, assassins cannot use any of their abilities night 1. Ah my bad ok strike the 2nd part of my post. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
On April 13 2011 15:59 Lemonwalrus wrote: Oh and sorry for the "for the 68th time" thing, that came of extremely dickish of me. /hugs haha np and anyway thinking on it more my idea wasn't very good anyway. A decent plan for prot to survive is to call out anyone as red and hope we lynch them. If hes right people may believe him and give medic protection if hes wrong hes going to die but the assassins would have killed him anyway. I also have to wonder if prot was really a dt and he used his check and found a green what exactly was his plan to convince people that he was telling the truth? It just seems like such a huge risk to take playing the assassin gambit if hes given one of the most important town roles. | ||
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