EPTI will not pick traitor this time
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I will not pick traitor this time | ||
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On December 30 2010 16:32 Qatol wrote: Wasn't Radfield's plan the one where the town assigned roles to certain spots and then the players picked an order so they wouldn't overlap? If so, why would you ever try to reproduce that? It lets the mafia control what their members pick, which is the worst thing that could happen to the town. The town wants overlaps so the mafia are either forced into early positions/ roles they cannot use effectively without becoming suspicious or positions later in the draft where the mafia cannot be sure their desired roles will be available. If I remember correctly, I thought Radfield was mafia for most of PYP2 because his plan was so anti-town. Edit: I just realized that this came out really harsh, especially considering the town won PYP2. What I really meant was just as long as the town prevents the mafia from controlling the draft, they are in good shape. I don't think Radfield's method for doing so was as effective as it could have been, but it was certainly sufficient and he should be commended for coming forward and making sure the town tried to do something to take control of the drafting phase. Firstly, the mafia wasn't really able to control the draft, Radfield was the one. When the plan was put in action, I'm pretty sure that people didn't RNG and just chose the best role for them. So basically his plan was telling everyone what number to pick. Now, there was no consideration for where mafia could be. So possibly this would be a change for the plan this game The main weakness I see with his plan was 1) There were some green players due to role overlap. Maximal amount of blues would have been extreamly good for the town. 2) It should have been pretty obvious where the DT was. In fact mafia went after DT the first round. Given, they knew where the DT was because they attempted to take the DT spot but failed. And also the hit failed because the DT was the SK Now, the good stuff with the plan 1) It got rid of the pretty dangerous roles quick. (This could be accomplished by assigning the copy-cat role earlier or later). One trouble in PYP1 was that the comp vig got lost. 2) Medics would have their jobs cut out for them. They know around where the mafia would hit. So possibly obvious blue roles isn't a bad thing. 3) It got an obscene amount of roles out, each incredibly useful. Of course, I immediately see some irreparable weakness with both plans. Chiefly, the traitor messed things up real quick for a while, but then all was good. I'll try working on it, once I see the role list. | ||
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Firstly, as always, I don't really start planning or scumhunting until I get my role PM. So I don't really want to get into too much detail about what I'm going to do Number selection portion I don't believe this area is enforceable. My first post in this game will probably be announcing I chose the numbers [5][1] The thing that is able to be controlled is revealing the plan after the numbers were selected. This way, mafia maneuvers won't really matter. Now, this is placing a significant amount of trust on one person. However, the Egyptian Pyramid Builder method works well here. All we do is kill me day one and see if I'm red or blue. Role Selection Portion Rastaban's plan was clearly superior in this field. Yes he probably placed importance on the wrong areas, but this can be fixed When we look at PYP 2 we see that there actually wasn't that much clash + Show Spoiler + rastaban - (CV) chaoser-(Bad Santa) LSB - (Traitor) Hesmyrr (CV) - VT Inentional zeks (Role Cop) SouthRawrea (Traitor) - VT Subversion (Role Cop)-VS Fishball (Bullet Bill) ~Opz~ (Meth Man) citi.zen (Tracker) BrownBear (Meth Man) - VT JeeJee (Doctor) - (rolled Normal) DarthThienAn (CC) siNiquity (Tracker) - VT Divinek (DV) Radfield (copy Cat) - VT Bill Murray (Mason) bumatlarge (watcher) Pandain (Martyr) We take out Hesmyrr, who intentionally clashed with someone else, and then we see that 3 people clashed. This is a 3/18 rate. 17% In PYP1, there was less roles, so yes there should be less clash. But the amount of people who actually choose roles was much less. + Show Spoiler + Bill Murray (Inventor) [NyC]HoBbes (Meth Man) Radfield (SK) (floridian) d3_crescentia (Doc - Weak) 8 Korynne (Vanilla Town) 10 Foolishness (scum) (CV) 11 JeeJee [6][1] (meth man)->(Vanilla) 12 sidesprang (scum) (Scum Weak Doctor) 13 Scamp (Doc - Normal) 14 ~Opz~ (CV) (Vanilla) 16 Qatol (CC) ->(Vanilla Town) 18 DarthThienAn (scum) (DV) 19 Zona (scum) (Pardoner) We take out everyone who didn't chose a role, and see that there are 4 clashes 4/13 is a 31% rate. The main issue with your plan Qatol is that it left a lot of townies to choose their roles up for themselves. And when this happened, it was left up to the dice. A lot of townies quickly tried to grab important roles, bumping into each other. Radfield's plan was nice because it had significantly more roles. 9 roles Vrs. 16. In reality. There were enough blues that the town didn't really need to scumhunt. | ||
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On January 02 2011 06:31 Qatol wrote: I'm just warning you that I believe announcing your numbers before the drafting order is revealed is suboptimal because it reduces the odds of a conflict in numbers. Also most good plans don't need to get the formulator killed - the whole point of them is they make logical sense to everyone. Killing yourself to earn trust is a weakness to almost any plan because people won't follow it unless it makes sense to them regardless of whether or not they trust your intentions. Although conflict in numbers can be used to generate a list of who is probably mafia, it can be beat. All mafia has to do is assigning two people. [1][1] and [1][2], and your plan falls to shambles. By me publically announcing that I will be taking [5][1] at the beginning of the game. We know if anyone intentionally tries to take a [5][X], something is up with that person. Probably what's going to happen is we'll try to get most of the plan before the number selection occurs, so people are on board. As for clashing, you mischaracterize the facts somewhat. First of all, the mafia disrupted the role selection/assignment more in PYP1 than they did in PYP2 (partially because role assignment hadn't been accepted as the proper course of action) - 2 of those clashes were because mafia selected the role 1 spot higher than the town person assigned to select said role. Out of the 4 clashes you identify, 3 of the players who ended up with vanilla roles from clashing were assigned a selection or small group of selections, so it wasn't really because the townies were left to select roles on their own. Second of all, why did you discount Hesmyrr but not OpZ when he was also likely to clash with someone with their pick based on his assignment (he was told to either take CompVig, Inventor, or JOAT even though 2 of those had already been assigned)? I agree that the organization of the PYP2 method was better, but I still think that PYP1 had it beat in some areas (number selection in particular). Indeed, the same happened with PYP2, the people who had clashes were assigned as part of a group of selections. The thing was, the reason why it was far less was because it was generally organized. Immediately the plan guaranteed the first 3 roles be picked. And also the Bullet Bill / DT be picked. But remember, the more roles the better. Although the mafia can get it's hands on a few good roles. What won the game last time was the mass of imbalanced town roles. iirc, the purpose of not selecting the JOAT, was so that we'd know anyone with a gun was mafia. That way the bullet bill became a 100% scumdar Now, I have in mind a plan, but as always, I don't want to screw myself over if I turn out to be mafia. | ||
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For example, say 1,2,3,4,5 are publically claimed. Sure, the mafia could pick six, however, they will always be behind the people who picked the first five numbers. Fishball, how successful were you at getting the people into the right spots? | ||
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Although Inactivity played a part. The Mafia didn't lose PYP2 just because of inactivity, the chief reason was because over half the town was confirmed and we couldn't do anything about it, and no one anticipated how broken the bad santa role can be. Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell. It would be incredibly easy for the mafia to pick 2 [1][X] slots and then simply redirect the town to clashing. The town would waste lots of time trying to fit things under the clashing theory, when all that would be accomplished is 'confirming' a mafia. Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work | ||
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On January 02 2011 11:14 Qatol wrote: Heh and clearly this is the real reason I don't play much any more. My plans all work once and then never again and I'd rather not be an average player! But at least games where my plans happened are legendary! It's all right. Teamwork is overrated. Gogo Kill everyone else in the game plan!! | ||
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A) Successfully protects a hit B) Kills someone C) Is supppse to kill someone but that person is protected/bulletproof? | ||
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![[image loading]](http://homeschoolblogger.com/explorer/files/2010/10/fractal-2.jpg) Information is Beautiful Introductory Notes + Show Spoiler + 1. There are 21 roles, and 21 People. Of these roles. Only three are completely ainti-town. The Godfather, the Traitor, and the Janitor (To a degree). 2. There are two doctors. So even if the mafia knows where two of the most powerful roles are (JOAT, Bullet Bill). It shouldn’t be a problem as we can protect them every single time. 3. The mafia only has 1 kp. So at best, they can only take out one good role a night Taking these two points in mind, I’m coming up with the Information is Beautiful plan. The goal of the plan is to give almost everyone a role so that there will be soo many blues that the mafia can't do anything about it. The plan in a nutshell. We will create a list of roles. For example 1. CPR Doc 2. Comp Vig 3. Janitor. Lets say the draft turns out to be 1. LSB 2. Deconduo 3. Kenpachi LSB would draft the CPR Doc role Deconduo would draft the Comp Vig role Kenpachi would draft the Janitor role We do this for 20 roles. The last person will randomly chose a role. Because picking traitor would be dumb. Step one: Number Picking Phase We want the number picking phase to be as random as possible. So please. No one declare what number they will be picking. This will make it hard for the mafia to predict what spot they will take. We will put together a list of what spot will take which role. This way the mafia won’t be able to pick which role they are forced to take. Step two: Role Drafting Phase Everyone will draft the role they will suppose to be drafting. Step three: Resolve Disputes Lets say the person who was suppose to pick JOAT didn’t get his role. We can start sending Role Cops and Bullet Bills to figure out who took the JOAT role. Considerations Information The mafia would know where every single role would be. This means that our alignment cops are pretty vulnerable. But remember, the town would know where every single role. This opens up lots and lots of possibilities. DTs immediately telling results. Doctors claiming who they are going to protect before they do, so if they actually are weak doctors, we got a 100% mafia. Town will also get up to three KP. 1 Lynch KP. 1 CPR Doc. 1 Comp Vig. The town KP will severely outnumber the mafia KP. Serial Killer There is a key fact about the SK we can exploit. The SK is bulletproof. That means that whenever one of the town hits doesn't go off and is blocked, that person is the SK. | ||
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Alignment Cop- Although the Alignment Cop might not be correct, all we have to do is have the cop claim all their checks. Once the cop dies, we will be able to know their sanity Role Cop- This is amazing. Its an easy way to track any missteps in the plan to see if someone didn't go with it Doctor- Night one the doctors should declare who they are protecting. This way if a doctor is a weak doctor and they die, we know what happened. Bulletproof- Very good. But kindof useless Mason- Easily vertifiable. Just have their mason buddy claim. Day Vig- Easily Vertifiable Compulsive Vigilante- Very dangerous. We should have this as our #2 pick JOAT- Doctors, Vig, 100% Cop. Amazing. (#4 Pick) Veteran- Good, but kindof useless God Father- It is a mafia role, but we should still assign it to see if a mafia picked it up. It should be the last pick (#20) Role blocker- This can be used to stop the Comp Vig from shooting anyone. Also it's dangerous in Mafia hands Copy Cat- This can be a mafia role. (Day vig shoots the CPR Doc, the copy cat them becomes the CPR doc). But once we know every singe role, we know who the Copy Cat it. It's kindof useless, and should be close to the last pick (#19) Pardoner- They can prove their role easily Bullet Bill- Amazing DT. Can figure out the SK and Mafia Easily. #5 Pick Traitor- Don't pick this. Prince of Darkness- Remember, the town will have lots and lots of night actions. The mafia only has 1 KP a night, so this might not be a bad idea. However, this should only be used if we know that it's a good idea Politican Janitor- Dangerous little role. We should try to pick up this role fast. Remember, the mafia knows the alignment of everyone, so the Janitor can only help them. (#3 pick) CPR Doc- Dangerous. We should think of it as a vigilante. We got to get it into town hands. It has to be #1 pick Hider | ||
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Color Key Essential to the town Very dangerous Easily verifiable | ||
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1. CPR Doc 2. Comp Vig 3. Janitor 4. JOAT 5. Bullet Bill 6. Doctor 7. Doctor 8. Role Cop 9. Alignment Cop 10. Role Blocker 11. Prince of Darkness 12. Day Vig 13. Pardoner 14. Politican 15. Mason 16. Hider 17. Bulletproof 18. Veteran 19. Copy Cat 20. God Father 21. Random a role | ||
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But we know where the Hider/Bulletproof/Vet is, since the plan is, once we know everyone's role, things will be a lot easier. For example, if we target the Pardoner to get killed. And for some reason he lives, although the doctors swear they didn't protect him. The Pardoner is probably the SK (either that or one of the doctors is lying) | ||
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On January 03 2011 11:53 LayOffRage wrote: Since I am pretty sure the game didn't start yet why are you metaing out plans? A perfect plan is more important than winning. | ||
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1. Receive Alignment 2. Send in numbers 3. Receive draft placement and pick your role. | ||
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On January 03 2011 13:16 kitaman27 wrote: What about the fact that the medics identities will be public too? Couldn't they be picked off day one? Town has to worry about 2 kp because the SK will likely be sniping good roles as well. It is unlikely that any of these kills will be blocked if the veteran, bulletproof, hider are all public and the medics are sitting ducks. Would it be better for the anti-town roles to be predetermined so the town has some control over them, while the pro-town roles remain hidden? That would result in some overlap in role selection, however important roles like bullet bill and alignment cop won't be taken out so easily. All right, in order to understand this fully, you have to understand one thing Clash is equivilant to a mafia kill / SK kill Lets say that in my plan, I was assigned the DT and you the Medic. All right, mafia might spend on of their KPs and take out the DT Now, lets say we just randomly choose roles. I picked DT, and you picked DT. Sure the mafia 'doesn't know where the medic is' but we have no medic. Frankly, yeah, one of our DT/Medics will die. But we got 19 other blue roles to draw up on. The point of the plan is to eliminate clash in role selection so that we get an obcene amount of information. If you still don't understand, try propsing a solution. | ||
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