|
My Fellow Liquidians,
We face the threat of extermination. Within our ranks, there lurks members whose sole driving focus is to kill us all (and hopefully leave a few clues behind). Individually, all we are armed with is our wits. That will not be enough, for our enemy strikes unseen while we must cast our votes openly.
The answer is trust. We must learn to trust one another even as we fight an unseen enemy in our ranks, and that is impossible without someone to lead the way.
That is why, today, I am running to be your Sheriff. I will strive to discover and work with Blues in the best manner possible, so that we can all make it out of here alive. I've played in good mafia games, bad mafia games, and served time in the psychotic morass known as Caller's Red Army, so I know how to be a man and do the right thing.
Vote for survival. Vote t_co for your Mafia XVI Sheriff.
|
On January 20 2010 18:43 Zona wrote:
Uh, the mafia really want to find our "blues" to kill them - our special townies shouldn't give themselves away to a mayor/sheriff that might be mafia.
And to be honest, until the endgame, trying to out our special townies is very anti-town.
The best mafia game I played in was the one where Ace, as mayor, had organized most of the blues into a cohesive network that rivalled the mafia. Most of the games are very solitary and only end due to mafia incompetency.
This is not about "outing" blues; it's about making them aware of each other and having a sheriff they can trust. Ultimately if they can't trust the sheriff at hand until the endgame, as you state, then the mafia has scored a victory and this is what is truly anti-town.
|
On January 21 2010 02:21 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Right. We should pick a mayor/sheriff based on who is doing the most to help the town at the moment. As far as I see it, meeple and myself have been the most active looking for clues/trying to help the town.
t_co had a nice banner but he just kinda popped in to say "vote for me" and then left. I don't want to say it's extremely suspicious behavior but if the mafia were trying to nab an elected position that would be one way of doing it.
At this early of a stage in the game, with only 1 set of clues to analyze, it's very hard to analyze them. It's much better to simply list those clues rather than filling the thread with speculation on who those clues might point to (because who doesn't want to respond when they're accused?).
When I look through the thread, only about 1/2th of the town has actually posted, so inactivity isn't really much help in identifying mafia either.
With those things in mind, if the mafia were trying to nab an elected position, they would be much more likely to launch into empty speculation now and then gradually quiet down as the inevitable accusations/reverse accusations pile up rather than staying quiet.
Ultimately what is important in the early stages is to keep track of clues; in the later stages, especially after lynches and night kills, posting habits become more important.
|
On January 21 2010 01:37 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
So as we see it now, whoever is elected mayor should be lynching Hobbes? That first lynch can't go to waste and he's definitely the most suspicious as of now.
There are also 5 other mafia not described in clues from this post, keep that in mind.
Also, who all is running?
t_co (platform is mafia experience)
myself (platform is going along with the town, being very active)
meeple (platform isn't really anything at all)
citi.zen (platform is going along with the town/being helpful)
This is actually the first explicit instance of someone calling to for a specific position (the mayor) to lynch Hobbes, saying that the first lynch can't go to waste when the lynch vote is actually 20+ hours away. Note that only 5 people out of 66 have been actively analyzing Hobbes here.
|
On January 21 2010 04:33 Bill Murray wrote:
call me paranoid, but i'm eyeballing everyone voting for T_CO
List of suspicious people
T_CO,
StimiLant,
Faronel,
the cookiemonster,
and i'm going to throw Hobbes in there too
It's highly likely that the mafia is intelligent enough to spread their votes between two or three candidates, reserving their votes until the end to tip the scales in favor of their candidate.
|
On January 21 2010 04:29 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
also 5 out of 66? i believe there are 34 players
My mistake. Still, the point is, rushing to ask people to lynch off the voices of a substantial minority and 1 day's worth of clues is kind of suicidal. It takes 2 points to draw a line, after all. With 4 mafia clues per day and only 8 mafia total, it shouldn't take that long for more mafia clues to pile up that point us in a better direction.
Cruel as it may sound, the first day lynch matters little in the long run, because the town is still at 34 members and the mafia only at 8, which means there is a substantial margin of error available to us.
|
On January 21 2010 04:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I mean, let's say citi.zen is elected mayor. We eventually suspect him of being mafia and lynch him and it turns out he is. Then we should examine who voted for him as probably a few of them are mafia. Then we can compare that list to clues and such
That's a good start. The best way to analyze that list would be to look at voting order. It would make sense for mafia suspects to have the last or the later votes for a mafia candidate, so that they could get just enough votes to push him in without risking the entire group getting exposed through that candidate's voting list.
|
|
|
|
|
On January 21 2010 04:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Well someone has to be lynched right? Can the mayor pass on lynching and if so do we want to waste that opportunity? I don't want to rush anyone towards a suspect, in fact I think we should do the opposite. Keep our cool and take this time to think our decision out. However, I do think at the end of the day we need to make a decision.
There are 7 mafia not 8 btw
It's better still if more people can post in this thread and have their voices heard rather than leaving the discussion for lynching someone in the hands of 1/6th of the town.
With that being said, if we are to discuss it would be helpful if people refrained from defensive reactions and explanations of their own profile when accused. Thread space would be much better devoted to actually discussing who else could be potential mafia.
|
On January 21 2010 04:50 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 04:46 t_co wrote:On January 21 2010 04:29 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
also 5 out of 66? i believe there are 34 players My mistake. Still, the point is, rushing to ask people to lynch off the voices of a substantial minority and 1 day's worth of clues is kind of suicidal. It takes 2 points to draw a line, after all. With 4 mafia clues per day and only 8 mafia total, it shouldn't take that long for more mafia clues to pile up that point us in a better direction. Cruel as it may sound, the first day lynch matters little in the long run, because the town is still at 34 members and the mafia only at 8, which means there is a substantial margin of error available to us. I guess you lost me: 1st paragraph is saying "lets not rush with the lynching"; 2nd paragraph says "we have a substantial error margin". Am I reading it wrong?
What it means it that we can afford to let a mafia live today as there is little chance the mafia will take control of the town by having 1 extra member. Also, as clues pile up AND the proportion of mafia to town grows (as the town shrinks) it gets easier and easier to analyze clues.
|
Yes, I think that with the paltry clue analysis we have right now and the fact that we have a less than 1/4 ratio of mafia we have a bigger chance of lynching one of our own in the first night than we do of lynching a mafia.
|
On January 21 2010 05:08 citi.zen wrote:
I've decided to keep any as-of-yet unreferenced clues in a separate, un-posted file. Otherwise it will make life hard on the writers of the story.
Good thinking.
|
On January 21 2010 05:03 citi.zen wrote:
That's what I am trying to understand, it seems he is making two opposing arguments.
Nope, just saying that we have enough of a margin of error to allow the mafia to run rampant for a day or two (that is +EV (expected value) for all our subsequent lynches); on the flip side, lynching anyone on Day 1 is -EV.
|
On January 21 2010 07:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Well I'm running and since I'm biased I'll say myself.
I voted for meeple, I think he'll do fine. He seems pretty level-headed and analytical and I don't have any reason to believe he is mafia.
This, coming from the same person who said
meeple (platform isn't really anything at all)
seems kind of odd. I find this sudden tightness between meeple and DH kind of suspicious.
But the main topic here should be that we should lynch the mayor regardless of whether we think he is mafia or not.
The mayor role is actually quite overpowered compared to the sheriff, but the power only helps if the mayor is mafia.
Consider that the extra three votes of the mayor don't really start kicking in until later in the game, when vote total gets smaller and smaller. By then, most of the bodyguards may be dead.
If the mayor is town, then the mafia can kill him.
If the mayor is mafia, the mafia get an additional 2 votes to use when there aren't that many actives left.
In this case, the mayor is a pretty useless role for the town to keep and should be lynched ASAP. It would also allow the meeple DH duo to be verified, as if one of the two shows up clean, the other ought to be clean as well.
|
On January 21 2010 11:18 citi.zen wrote:Look at this: Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 17:14 t_co wrote:My Fellow Liquidians, We face the threat of extermination. Within our ranks, there lurks members whose sole driving focus is to kill us all (and hopefully leave a few clues behind). Individually, all we are armed with is our wits. That will not be enough, for our enemy strikes unseen while we must cast our votes openly. The answer is trust. We must learn to trust one another even as we fight an unseen enemy in our ranks, and that is impossible without someone to lead the way. That is why, today, I am running to be your Sheriff. I will strive to discover and work with Blues in the best manner possible, so that we can all make it out of here alive. I've played in good mafia games, bad mafia games, and served time in the psychotic morass known as Caller's Red Army, so I know how to be a man and do the right thing. Vote for survival. Vote t_co for your Mafia XVI Sheriff. Then, after falling way behind in the election: Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 08:06 t_co wrote:On January 21 2010 07:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Well I'm running and since I'm biased I'll say myself.
I voted for meeple, I think he'll do fine. He seems pretty level-headed and analytical and I don't have any reason to believe he is mafia. This, coming from the same person who said
meeple (platform isn't really anything at all)
seems kind of odd. I find this sudden tightness between meeple and DH kind of suspicious. But the main topic here should be that we should lynch the mayor regardless of whether we think he is mafia or not.The mayor role is actually quite overpowered compared to the sheriff, but the power only helps if the mayor is mafia. Consider that the extra three votes of the mayor don't really start kicking in until later in the game, when vote total gets smaller and smaller. By then, most of the bodyguards may be dead. If the mayor is town, then the mafia can kill him. If the mayor is mafia, the mafia get an additional 2 votes to use when there aren't that many actives left. In this case, the mayor is a pretty useless role for the town to keep and should be lynched ASAP. It would also allow the meeple DH duo to be verified, as if one of the two shows up clean, the other ought to be clean as well.
I said I was running for Sheriff, not Mayor. What does your posting prove?
|
On January 21 2010 12:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 12:29 citi.zen wrote:On January 21 2010 12:23 Abenson wrote:
I'm so confused right now....
The clues don't seem to tell anything in the Day 1 post... D;
Anyways....
I think that we should stick with hard facts for now, and I really think T_co is extremely suspicious like most of you, but I think we should observe before doing anything rash.
The fact is we must lynch someone, these are the rules. It is simply a matter of who is the best candidate. Exactly. Also, when does the day end? 9pm est tomorrow?
I find it highly suspicious that meeple/DoctorH/Bill/citi.zen are cross-referencing and cross-posting each other so much. Note that they all began to cross-post (and offer each other support) right after the role PMs were announced, implying that they began the game trusting each other. WHY? Why would they do that?
I find it funny that somehow me trying to push for a strategy that can keep the mafia from being able to use the mayor's office against the town is grounds for suspicion.
Note that I am the only person who has not called for ANYONE to be lynched. I keep reminding people that it's too early in the game to lynch, and somehow this is suspicious?
So I ran for sheriff, and now citi.zen, DoctorH, and meeple have explicitly stated that they will do whatever it takes to keep me out of office. Doesn't this strike anyone as odd? Why would those three band together and trust one another so soon? And it's not like I was losing badly when I made the post calling for a mayor lynch--I was only down 1 vote. In fact, if you guys elect me mayor, lynch me. Although that probably won't happen because the DoctorH/meeple's gang, once they become mayor, seem hellbent on making me the Day 1 lynch.
Needless to say if I flip green/blue then doctorH/meeple are in doubt. They should be lynched but I doubt that will happen if they are elected sheriff/mayor as they can simply outvote and, sadly, outpost the inactives.
|
On January 21 2010 12:43 DoctorHelvetica wrote:They are important to note, but I don't see how we could serious guess who is mafia and who isn't based on vote histories alone for the following reasons: 1. The mafia probably won't go all-in on one candidate. More than likely they will spread their votes to cause confusion. Meaning if we find out that a mafia voted for someone that isn't really a good indicator that they were a mafia candidate. 2. If all candidates appear to be innocent, then their voting histories aren't very telling. However, if we have other reasons to believe they might be mafia, then their voter histories will become important. 3. If one of the candidates is mafia, that doesn't incriminate everyone who voted for them, rather we should compare those voters to all the clues and scrutinize their posting histories. However, at the moment, I don't see much information being gleaned from voting history. I do, however, see potential information being gleaned from it. Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 12:27 Incognito wrote:
Vote update:
meeple: (8)
Abenson
DoctorHelvetica
BillMurray
citi.zen
[NyC]HoBbes
Jayme
Zona
Mystlord
citi.zen: (1)
Bill Murray
Hyperbola
t_co: (4)
magicbullet
789
Faronel
StimiLant
kane]deth[
DoctorHelvetica: (13)
789
meeple
flamewheel91
CynanMachae
keit
citi.zen
tredmasta
derfboy
Ser Aspi
meeple
The_Master
Fallen_Ark
Jugan
dinmsab
If anything is wrong here, please let me know.
Note that what DoctorH is basically saying here is that he and meeple will scrutinize anyone who votes for me. This is politicking at its best and shows that they are the real ones who are trying to split the town.
|
On January 21 2010 13:12 Zona wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 16:00 Zona wrote:
To be honest I think mayor/sheriff should be people who are active, but also with the emptiest/most unambiguous profiles, so that if any clues are given linking that person to the mafia, hopefully they would be more obvious. Ugh, I'm still thinking along these lines. All the serious candidates so far have multiple pieces of information in their profiles and thus clues relating to them might be harder to figure out (while mine only has a quote). But I really wouldn't know what to do with a triple vote, and I don't consider the incarceration power that strong. I am a little worried that it's possible that meeple/DrH are both mafia, and would be happier if only one of them was elected to either position. I'm wary of t_co, too, though.
Given that DrH and meeples both supported each other so heavily from the beginning of the game this means that if one flips red the other has a strong amount of doubt cast upon them. Likewise, if one flips green then the same amount of doubt ought to be cast upon me. This is great for the town as it allows doubt to be instantly cleared regarding three very active posters.
If I am lynched, then likewise should happen to them.
However, it is extremely difficult to lynch either the sheriff or the mayor (especially if one is mafia--just look at how long randombum survived as Pardoner, the 2nd vote-getter, in another mafia game), and would have to mean that somehow the most active posters all learn to trust one another and are protected through multiple day/night cycles, and somehow the inactives band together long enough to overcome the mayor's three votes plus the 6 other mafia votes.
Hence, it is very very bad for the town if both meeple/DrH get elected. Then there is no way to verify whether they are mafia or not.
In light of the new situation, then, there is a clear way to solve this problem, and it involves lynching one of us three on night one. Me, DrH, or meeples. DrH or meeples are the better candidates for this because once one goes and flips red/green it removes a large portion of doubt regarding the other person's color.
Solution:
If I am elected, I will lynch meeples. Then, if meeples flips green, I want the town to lynch me. If meeples flips red, then lynch DrH and go down the 789 list.
Why the 789 list you might ask? Because those 4 posters were the earliest posters and all supported one another and continued supporting one another (even avoiding each other in clue analyses), and all began posting within 3 hours of one another. This strongly implies prior coordination to some degree and I frankly believe that level of trust is very unlikely unless they are mafia.
|
addendum: If you lynch me first and I flip green, then you have to deal with a sheriff and mayor that BOTH might be mafia. But if you vote me in as mayor and DrH as sheriff, then this problem does not arise, and furthermore, by lynching meeples, you instantly know between DrH and I who is the remaining mafia.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4008/4289485755_c780d3aed6_o.jpg)
