EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 57
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
Thanks  | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
This game's 27 | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
It's a shame to see so many being modkilled, though. | ||
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On July 11 2012 13:59 JieXian wrote: Before going I can't help but to say Evul that was an idiotic move investigating Bass Good job evul ^^ Bass i supposed you killed me because of my mackin townie read? hahaha wrong choice man and good play bass. your filter looks scummy now based on meta but thing is I never read it before while I was in game :D Don't know what'll happen to my reads if I were still in game and went through your filter and marv that jinglehell one was really funny hahahahaha And Release, so what kind of hallucinogens have you been using this past week? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
I decided not to gamble on roleblocking one of DT or tracker and killing the other night 2 because I felt that it would be safer to guarantee a kill on the tracker and hope the DT either didn't check me, or best case scenario, checked the miller. I was banking on Evul checking YourHarry or Mackin so that town wouldn't waste time with building cases against them, or checking Hapa to absolutely confirm his town status, which some were questioning. It would've come down to me vs 1 other unconfirmed townie in the end if this had worked. On July 13 2012 10:42 Hapahauli wrote: As previously stated, I really didn't like your case against Bass, and thought it took him out of context quite a bit. Upon re-reading his filter, I think there were a lot of stronger points against him that I missed on my initial readthrough: When he bussed hopeless, he left himself open to change his mind - he said he wanted to see Hopeless's defense before he locked in his vote. Him never voting or FOSing Mackin was a really strong point that you didn't mention until I brought it up later. He hounds Mackin without ever committing to his case. I actually always leave myself open to changing my mind regardless of alignment in all the games I've played (well, only 3 I guess), since there is such a lengthy period of time between when i go to sleep and the deadline. An unfortunate situation when playing mafia on the other side of the world. I also never FOS anyone because I figure if I'm posting evidence and saying that I feel someone is suspicious, then that's already a FOS in itself. I don't actually recall seeing FOSs anywhere other than newbie games. I keep it out just so there isn't bolded text all over the place, but it's just my preference. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
It has been mentioned several times, I think, including in my post that clarified tracker was stronger than the detective. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On July 13 2012 13:22 JieXian wrote: Good job evul ^^ Bass i supposed you killed me because of my mackin townie read? hahaha wrong choice man and good play bass. your filter looks scummy now based on meta but thing is I never read it before while I was in game :D Don't know what'll happen to my reads if I were still in game and went through your filter and marv that jinglehell one was really funny hahahahaha And Release, so what kind of hallucinogens have you been using this past week? textbook dust | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
You made the right choice role blocking the medic and NKing gthe tracker. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Probability of scum win if RB medic and NK the tracker: 1/5 of the time, DT will check out the miller. And in this situation, as we established during the game, there is 25% chance of scum win. 1/5 of the time DT will check out the scum. Assuming people are reasonable and lynch miller/scum possibility, there is 0% chance of scum win. 3/5 of the time, DT will check out vanilla townie. There is 3/4*2/3*1/2 probability of scum win. 25%. So overall, by RBing the medic, scum had 1/5*.25 + 3/5*.25 = 20% chance of winning. Not bad. Maybe you did the right thing. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
 But a correction.1/5 of the time, DT will check out the miller. In this situation, there is 3/4 * 2/3 = 50% chance of winning. So overall, you had 25% chance of winning. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
50% of the times, you would instantly lose (if you get it wrong). 50% of the time, you would get it right and town will get no info and scum gets a NK. This way you had: 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 = 0.4. So you had 20% chance of winning. So you DID the right thing Good job. | ||
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Mackin
Ireland181 Posts
Also, the wrap up post after the lynching was gold. I celebrated with Guinness? Yes. | ||
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Evulrabbitz
Sweden134 Posts
I don't get it =/ | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
7-1 - Evul gets townread on YourHarry from overnight evul, zen, jingle, yourharry confirmed lynch lazermonkey. 6-1 kill evul 5-1 lynch mackin 4-1 kill zen 3-1 Remaining: Jingle, YourHarry, Hapahauli, BassinSpace straight fight between Hapahauli and BassinSpace (in this scenario) What am I missing? | ||
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BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
YourHarry I'll be honest... I didn't even bother working out the probabilities :p What I ended up doing just felt safer. | ||
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