EPTWheel of Fortune Mini Mafia - Page 45
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
I'm not really good at writing cases, the last two cases I wrote on scum in Death Factory Mafia 2 and in TL Mafia LVI were both ignored by everybody, that's just how it is. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
Snarfs' Night 3 Thoughts Read the whole thing. It's important. prplhz and Ace are the remaining scum 1. prplhz The bulk of my case is on his day 3 actions. However, for completeness I have analyzed his play chronologically. Please read it all. Day 1: prplhz starts by saying that MrZentor is the lynch of the day: [click] However, 18 minutes after strongandbig makes a large case on me, he votes me without a single question about the case, nor a comment on why he's voting me: [click] 5 hours later after asked about it, he gives a very weak reason: [click] Why would a town prplhz not try to be very clear about his reasoning or question why/who he is voting? He doesn't even question me at all! He spends the entire first day asking MrZentor to explain himself for his crazy, erratic behaviour, but he doesn't ask me a single question, nor does he address my response to strongandbig's case at all. He doesn't care about finding out if I'm actually town. Then, he goes back to questioning MrZentor! Finally 4 minutes before the deadline, he posts a rebuttal to MrZentor's case. click. The timing of this rebuttal is really bad. From a mafia mindset, he is trying to set up the next days lynch early so that there will be as little discussion as possible. There is no town motivation to do this. Only two possible scenarios arise: a massive voteswitch to MrZentor from which town gains no information and mislynches another town, or maybe some town switches but nothing else happens and we no-lynch (which is what happens). If he had actually wanted MrZentor lynched and believed he was scum, he would have posted his case earlier in the day, when he admits he had written it. Otherwise, town has nothing to learn from MrZentor’s lynch. His excuse is that he "didn't know if [he] wanted to lynch MrZentor" [click]. This is not a town excuse. Two things wrong with it: a) His post doesn't even call MrZentor scum. It just outlines how weak of a case MrZentor wrote on prplhz. A weak case is not a reason to lynch someone. b) He's searching for a reason to lynch MrZentor rather than trying to prove that he's scum. This is a mafia mindset. Day 2 prplhz is barely around and goes into lurky-scum mode. He drops his vote on MrZentor then pretty much lurks through the entire day. In the few contributions he makes, he still manages to both try to prevent discussion of reads AND defend VE from Radfield's case: [click] Day 3 If you can read through prplhz's day 3 and come up with any reasoning for what he says and why that makes him town, then I would be amazed. I'll just point out some highlights, but seriously, everyone should reread from about 2.5 hours before the day 3 lynch. It’s very hard to find any town motivation to suggest strongandbig as a lynch candidate, and then try to push him without any discussion. Keep in mind that one of the goals of a mafia team is to deny town information. By lynching marvellosity we gained a lot of information. By lynching strongandbig, or by no-lynching, town gains zero information. I’ve made a note at the bottom of this post about why no-lynching here can help mafia win this game. First off, notice the contradictions prplhz makes. He is saying one thing while doing the complete opposite. He claims repeatedly (4 times) that he doesn't want another no-lynch, yet pushes extremely hard to convince people to switch their votes off marvellosity. I'm going to lynch marvellosity if he's the alternative though 'cause I don't want another day1 no-lynch fiasco. As I already said, I'll mislynch marvellosity just to avoid a day1 fiasco. I said in my very first post 20 minutes ago that I would prefer lynching marvellosity over a no-lynch because that sucked on day1. How the hell is that trying to force no-lynch or derail discussion? @marvellosity You should very seriously consider voting for yourself 1 min before deadline to secure lynch if nobody shows up. Then, in the end of the day, he does not follow through with his word and ends up voting Sbrubbles: [click] This is very similar to VisceraEyes’ play on day 1, something that stood out to other players (Radfield and myself included). Second, notice how, for someone so concerned about making sure we don't no-lynch, he does not care to get organized enough to get people to agree on a lynch target. He starts out by trying to get everyone to consolidate on strongandbig (which I highly doubt he thinks will actually happen), but then 40 minutes before the deadline starts grasping for straws, asking for anybody else to lynch, including throwing out phagga's name: "who the hell knows what phagga is really? He could easily be scum so lets lynch him." [click] Now, if this was a town prplhz, he might very well believe that marvel is town and be trying to convince others to switch to a new target, and I’m sure this is what he’ll argue. However, in this situation, how would attempting to lynch strongandbig and phagga, two people with zero votes on them and no discussion throughout the day, make more sense than lynching Ace, whom people are willing to consolidate on? Personally, I don’t think that prplhz thinks a switch to phagga in the last 40 minutes is actually likely, and I believe that he is looking for one or two people to switch and cause a no-lynch (see end of post for reasons). Third, prplhz is so damn sure that marvellosity is town. -He starts out by repeating that he doesn't think marvellosity is scum: [click, click] -Then all out claims that marv is town: [click, click] I'm town and I was not even close to as sure marvellosity is town as prplhz seems to be here. Sure, I thought there was a pretty good chance near the end of the day, but I still had nagging doubts that would best be served by letting the lynch happen. I'm sure most of my fellow town players did as well. However, prplhz knew for damn sure that marvellosity was town. The only way that is possible is if he's scum. Fourth, his case on strongandbig was clearly thrown together in about the 30 seconds he had when he realized that I was around to call him out on his vote and that I wasn't going to stand for it. -prplhz's case on strongandbig: "his filter is empty, his posting style is weird and he has not been called out yet." [click] The entire case is weak and I'll tell you why scum make up weak cases in case you don't already know. He needs to sow some seeds of doubt about at least one or two other town players in order to win this game. He knows the case is weak. That's why it looks as weak as it does. -First of all, strongandbig's contributions were not empty. Reread his filter. Even if you believe that what strongandbig has written qualifies as empty, you could look at both marvellosity and phagga and find even more empty filters. Which is weird because prplhz knows that marvellosity is town. So, why strongandbig? It doesn’t make sense, even if prplhz believes what he’s telling us he believes. -Second, "his posting style is weird and he has not been called out yet" is not a legitimate scum-tell and prplhz knows that. This is the same kind of weak case that VE had on Sbrubbles during day 1. It doesn't make sense because if you look at the criteria by which prplhz is judging strongandbig, you find 2 other players who match the same criteria, but to a stronger extent - one of whom is about to be lynched. Also, when strongandbig replies to prplhz's “case”, strongandbig quite adequately (if we're comparing, again to marvellosity who somehow proved to prplhz that he was town) defends himself and all prplhz replies is: @strongandbig Read your rebuttal, still think you're scum. prplhz just dismisses strongandbig because prplhz knows that the case is made up so he pretty much has to stick to it no matter what. Again though, suppose that prplhz actually believes that there’s a chance strongandbig is mafia. Why dismiss his rebuttal so offhandedly when there are an additional 5 players who could also be the mafia members? If I had another vig shot tonight, it would be aimed straight at prplhz. 2. Ace I think the cases on Ace have already been made, but I think everyone should seriously consider the end of day 3 as a big red mark beside his name. To summarize the case: -More than happy to spend day 1 talking about mechanics. -Rather than willingly offer up information, he only answers questions which are asked of him. -Shows up 10 minutes before deadline to throw a vote on someone not going to be lynched day 1. -Votes MrZentor day 2 but refuses to talk about other scumreads. -Leaves a vote on bluelightz all of day 3, again without discussing other scumreads even when it's apparent bluelightz won't be lynched. Shows up only to defend himself. -Shows up in a whirlwind at the end of day 3, demanding that everyone unvote marvellosity because it’s “more than likely that he’s town” which is the opposite behaviour he showed on day 2 with the Zentor lynch Some more evidence: -Is a very intelligent mafia player and probably realizes that no-lynching benefits mafia more than town in this situation (see end of post), then clearly attempts to cause a no-lynch Why do I assume he tries to cause a no-lynch? Ask yourself, do you believe that Ace really believed that everyone would switch to phagga at the end of the day? Why does Ace ask everyone to switch to phagga? Because he comes in at the end of the day and places a vote on marvellosity (which by the way ensures that town gains information from his lynch), while only saying that the explanation was to come. What’s wrong with this? First off, he doesn’t actually let phagga explain his vote. Second, why would scum do the most blatantly obvious, attention grabbing thing in the game by hammering a towny a couple minutes before deadline? Third, again, what do we have to gain from a last second vote switch to phagga? Even if it succeeds, town has very little information. I refuse to believe that Ace did not think of this. I refuse to believe that Ace spend the entire day 3 sitting behind a vote on bluelightz, not suggesting any other scum reads, only to show up at the last second and vote phagga. Why do I refuse to believe this? Because this is the Ace who spouts that we should “focus on the lynch at hand”. He lives by this. How is a last second vote switch to phagga in any way focussing on the lynch at hand? If anyone besides Ace actually wants some quotes to back these up I can do some copy-pasting during lunch tomorrow (and no, Ace, I don't need you to reply. I've seen your replies already and I'm not satisfied). Important lynch mechanics First, and relevant to the above, is a note on the no-lynch vs. mislynch mechanics. During day 3, it benefits mafia much more than town to cause a no-lynch rather than a mislynch. The only thing town has to gain is another no-lynch, which they have to use in order for it to be remotely beneficial. Even then, you are sacrificing a confirmed alignment of a suspicious player for an extra day where that player is still alive. The tradeoff is this: - 2 suspicious town members dead, 2 not suspicious town members killed by mafia, going into lylo on day 5 (3:2 town:scum) vs - 1 suspicious town member dead, 3 not suspicious town members killed by mafia, going into lylo on day 6 (3:2 town:scum Scum would much rather be in charge of which town members are dying than letting town kill off their most suspicious reads to work their way towards lynching red. Especially when one of those town members is a town-vigilante ("confirmed" town). And remember, the second option only occurs if town actually no-lynches a second time. If mafia can convince town to mislynch twice in two days, then no-lynching on day 3 was a huge win for them. That is why I have strong reason to believe that prplhz and Ace are the remaining scum. NB: It is not just because they voted for a no-lynch on day 3 (in fact, they didn’t and town could have been justified in doing so), but indeed partly because they actively pushed for it to happen without actually saying that they were okay with a no-lynch. As I said above, prplhz claimed several times he didn’t want a no-lynch. He left it pretty damn close for someone so sure. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On May 01 2012 03:30 Ace wrote: Show the proof Snarfs, you know the deal about just throwing theories around. Like you showed the proof of MrZentor being scum? I could conceivably get on board an Ace lynch since day2. I was trying to stall it a bit because I thought he'd get shot at night but there's no way in hell that scum is going to shoot this. Also, I'm writing a response Snarfs whether you want it or not. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
And no more of this "that's what they want you to believe!" bullshit, that's the first time I've seen that sentiment this strong and it's permeating every thought of every townie right now. Stop it. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On May 01 2012 03:46 Ace wrote: I showed my proof of Zentor being Scum with quotes to back it up. I don't just start throwing everyone's name around like some people around here. "my proof" "my proof" Sounds like you couldn't bring yourself to say "a proof" or "the proof". A proof is a process that establishes truth, but the only truths in a mafia game are the flips. Apparently you meant "evidence" or "quotes". So you don't throw everyone's names around? You know what else you don't? Anything. It's day4 and a self proclaimed "God of mafia" hasn't done anything yet. What the fuck. Also, inb4 Snarfs says "now they're bussing each other". That's another case of conclusions before analysis that his entire case on me is very burdened with. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
My cases are always short and always weak, that's probably one of the reasons nobody ever listens to me. I could mention my case on MrZentor in Death Factory Mafia 2, you can go read that. It's a more wordy version of the case I have on strongandbig right now but it's pretty much the same. Or you can look at the case I made on Artanis[Xp] in TL Mafia LVI, that was equally "weak". You can also look at how I just dismiss Artanis[Xp]'s defense in that game, I'm pretty sure he is scum and I don't want to argue shit with him. I know my case is "weak" because I can't really explain it any more to you than what I've already done. The most important thing I'm doing is that I'm pointing out that he is scum and telling you to read his filter and then that should convince. I'm also perfectly aware that my day1 and day2 were ruined by some guy who decided to make those a horrible experience for me by demonstratively being a douchebag. That's also why I had a break day2, I couldn't read one more of his posts after the "Why are you even playing this game?" post so I took some time off of teamliquid.net. All I can say is that I'm pretty sure that strongandbig is scum and now I'm pushing it as hard as I can. As for the "he's trying to set up day2 lynch", why is that even scum? I'm never trying to ruin discussion (and we have always had plenty of time for that even though he didn't use it all that well), I was telling Radfield that we were lynching MrZentor as a way of pushing MrZentor. I didn't want people to leave his lynch and if I didn't fight for it then it might not happen. Even though you are really tunneling me right here you played a pretty good game, I was absolutely sure that you were town even before your shot on VisceraEyes and that shot was also really nice. For people reading Snarfs' case on me, don't ask yourself "Is this scum?", because you can always find a way to spin something as scummy (which Snarfs shows quite skillfully in his analysis of me), you should ask yourself "Is this something scum is likely to do?" and then you should read my filter. And ask me questions 'cause I'm around. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On May 01 2012 04:16 prplhz wrote: My cases are always short and always weak, that's probably one of the reasons nobody ever listens to me. I could mention my case on MrZentor in Death Factory Mafia 2, you can go read that. It's a more wordy version of the case I have on strongandbig right now but it's pretty much the same. Or you can look at the case I made on Artanis[Xp] in TL Mafia LVI, that was equally "weak". You can also look at how I just dismiss Artanis[Xp]'s defense in that game, I'm pretty sure he is scum and I don't want to argue shit with him. I know my case is "weak" because I can't really explain it any more to you than what I've already done. The most important thing I'm doing is that I'm pointing out that he is scum and telling you to read his filter and then that should convince. Okay, but why strongandbig? Why NOT marvellosity? Go through each of the points of your case and tell me how they apply to strongandbig more than: Ace, marvellosity, phagga, and Sbrubbles. How are you now convinced that strongandbig is scum when clearly there is some town in that group? I don't see it. How was marvellosity guaranteed town to you and why was it more important to try and drum together a bandwagon on someone else than lynching someone whom I think 5 town members were suspicious of? I'm also perfectly aware that my day1 and day2 were ruined by some guy who decided to make those a horrible experience for me by demonstratively being a douchebag. That's also why I had a break day2, I couldn't read one more of his posts after the "Why are you even playing this game?" post so I took some time off of teamliquid.net. All I can say is that I'm pretty sure that strongandbig is scum and now I'm pushing it as hard as I can. As for the "he's trying to set up day2 lynch", why is that even scum? I'm never trying to ruin discussion (and we have always had plenty of time for that even though he didn't use it all that well), I was telling Radfield that we were lynching MrZentor as a way of pushing MrZentor. I didn't want people to leave his lynch and if I didn't fight for it then it might not happen. The stuff surrounding MrZentor is very tough to read. I admit it is weaker than some of the other parts of the case. A problem though, is that you were not around day 2 to discuss other scum targets, even though it was clear almost from the beginning of the day that MrZentor was probably going to be lynched. Even though you are really tunneling me right here you played a pretty good game, I was absolutely sure that you were town even before your shot on VisceraEyes and that shot was also really nice. Can you explain to me, at what point between voting me day 1 and my shot on VE that you became absolutely sure that I was town? For people reading Snarfs' case on me, don't ask yourself "Is this scum?", because you can always find a way to spin something as scummy (which Snarfs shows quite skillfully in his analysis of me), you should ask yourself "Is this something scum is likely to do?" and then you should read my filter. And ask me questions 'cause I'm around. By all means, that is why I posted the case now. So people have time to ask both of us questions and so that I had time to respond to your response. What about the promises to "mislynch" marvellosity in order to ensure a no-lynch doesn't occur, then not following through on that? How is that town behaviour? Town needs the information and scum wants to deny it. What was with the weird desperation you showed in the last hour before the lynch to find a new target? How could that have been more beneficial for town than a marvellosity lynch? | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On April 30 2012 06:58 prplhz wrote: Rofl, people please. Whatever VisceraEyes said, he was deliberate trying to throw us off. And even if he had been under some spell that made him tell the truth, what VisceraEyes says can not be used to discern marvellosity's alignment. ##Unvote marvellosity I don't understand Ace. prphlz, why did you unvote? | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
"But how do you know that there are lurkers about?" there are always people coming in close to deadline. Even though 2.5 hours before was cutting it a little short for a vote-switch, just see how many people showed up (and later than me), we could easily have succeeded! I'm pretty pissed that you and Forumite and Sbrubbles weren't sufficiently around to agree to a no-lynch, or even a switch to someone else because that would have helped us a lot. I wasn't around day2? I was around in the beginning to secure the lynch and then I took a break. I was around again day3. No, I'm not going to tell you why I was very sure that you were town. I'm not blue or anything it was just how you appeared to me in the thread. marvellosity was mislynched and I unvoted with him at 6 votes. I was a little conflicted about this because I thought people might yell at me for ultimately voting for a guy who I was simultaneously saying was town, but when I saw that his lynch was secure I unvoted him. If you read the thread you can see me ask you three people who wanted to lynch him to take care of business and brow beat people into doing whatever you felt like, even though I prefer lynches to no-lynches it's not really me who should be trying to secure it when I'm quite sure it's a mislynch. There was no desperation, and how would desperation even be scummy? Why would I, in your words, be "desperate" and make up a "weak case" that I would "have to follow" when a mislynch was coming up? Why would I up to the deadline say "this guy is really town, look at him and the stuff he is saying" and try to convince you three of a no-lynch (you were the reason we mislynched, a mislynch is only preferable if people think that the person is actually scum). Really, I was doing what was best for town and while you say that 2.5 hours before deadline is a little late, look when everybody else came in. Even later. There's really a lot of information to gain at a deadline and that's sometimes when you get really sure of stuff. I hope we can have a better deadline next time. (not setting up for a vote-switch from scumbuddy strongandbig or whatever you might spin on this) | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Really. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On May 01 2012 05:32 prplhz wrote: It's totally irrelevant whether or not I voted or unvoted, I was instrumental in securing the lynch as I told you I would, and at the same time I was pointing out how it was a mislynch and trying to get you people to come around. Read the thread and that is what you will see. It doesn't matter at all whether or not I voted or unvoted because it would not have mattered at all and I was very aware of that fact. If it really would not matter, than no vote matters, as every single one of us could have said "well MY vote did not make the difference because there were 5 others who voted". That's not how it works. Every vote and unvote counts, because there is always a motivation behind it, and that motivation is important. So just dismissing your unvote as "unimportant" is wrong. However, you gave the answer in your post to snarfs, and that's all i asked for. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Spin 4 Snarfs the one shot brutally honest guy (vigilante) has gone home on the redeye! 48 hours to get in votes; 7 left and 4 to kick. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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