Analysis of Impervious
I'm just going to go through his major posts, where he brings up new points and ideas.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 11:55 Impervious wrote:
I'm going to throw some thoughts out there.
I think in this setup; the sleeper agents would want the game to go on as long as possible. This would allow more communication, as well as the ability to only kill non-agent positions (rather than mislynch). Once they've identified each other, this will quickly change, however.
Then again, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that the intelligence analyst can identify the reds and then claim who they all are. The downside is that they need to claim and give the town their info before they die.....
I'm not sure how this is going to play out, but it's going to require a different play style than a conventional mafia game. I'm not sure who will benefit more from a shorter game, and who will benefit more from a longer game.
Also, I'd be looking for any unusual word choices/phrases that a player could use to help identify themselves to/complete a clue they left the sleeper agents. Unfortunately, we probably won't know what the clues will really mean, but it could lead us to the cell leader, or a red faking as the cell leader to take pressure off the leader.
That all being said, I think we need to at least pressure people during the day. While it would suck to pressure a blue role, it's more likely that we'd pressure a red role, which could lead us to an early advantage through a good lynch. And anyone who is lurking will not be an asset to the town, so they're definitely good choices to pressure, if we don't have a lead on anyone else.
I know there was something else I thought of earlier, but I didn't write it down, and I didn't post it cause iGrok told us to stop posting until the game started -_-
Doesn't make a strong point about game length or how play style will be different, but he does bring up the idea of hidden word and messages for the first time. I like this, because it shows that he's actually thinking. He then makes a statement about pressure and lurkers, which I like, but is a general statement you see every game for the most part.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote:
Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts?
Everyone was caught up on breadcrumbing and seemed stuck on the subject, so Impervious comes in and asks people about "insufficient analysis". I like this, because the breadcrumb discussion had stopped going anywhere, so he promotes a different town discussion instead, to get us back on track.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 22:57 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 22:47 GMarshal wrote:On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote:
Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts? I think the DT should just push for a lynch on the target 75% chance of having the cell leader is worth the gamble of accidentally getting a town player lynched, IMO. Sure it might suck for the town player getting the shit end of the stick, but hey, we die for the greater glory and all that. I also think this is usless discussion that allows scum to blend in, I'm sure the mafia is content to debate this to death, rather than worrying about us sabotaging their cutesy plans. Still I want to see what you guys awnser to Ace's question Actually, you're wrong with the "75%" thing. There's a 1/15 chance that the cell leader will be checked tonight (based on pure percentages). There's a 14/15 chance that a non cell leader will be checked tonight (also based on pure percentages). If the cell leader is checked, it will show up as insufficient analysis. If a non cell leader is checked, it'll show up as insufficient analysis in 25% of the checks. Ultimately, this means that a result of insufficient analysis tonight leads to a 22.2% chance of actually being the cell leader..... IT IS NOT 75%. However, lynching them is still the best move. Assuming 4 sleeper cells and the cell leader, out of a total of 15 people who could be checked, it adds up to about a 50% chance of hitting a red by lynching anyone who gets "insufficient analysis" tonight. When you add in factors like intentionally checking scummy players (increasing your chance of checking the right people), then this is by far the best choice.
Makes a comment about the statistics of the DT check. I don't think it says too much about his alignment, as it doesn't say anything about his own opinions, but I'm inclined to believe scum would rather just let town think that the old, incorrect, percentages were true, as they favoured scum more in my eyes.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 27 2011 23:25 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 22:49 GMarshal wrote:
I realize its night time, but that is no reason to shut up and stop discussion, we have all of twenty four hours to start deciding things like lynches and blue direction. For the sake of discussion I am going to post a list of people I think need DT checks, vigi shots and medic protects.
DT Checks
Jackal58 - Ace thinks Jackal has been acting scummy, for this reason alone I think a dt should take a look at jackal, the results would be interesting either way
Mr. Wiggles - I already pointed out that I am suspicious of him, it would be nice to know definitely, as I know wiggles has the potential to contribute to the town if he is town aligned, if he is not he is very good about scooting along with large vacuous posts
GMarshal - DTs should aways check the most vocal players. I consider myself a vocal player, therefore I should be checked
Ace - its Ace, as policy he should be checked. Also I find his retraction of the vote on jackal to be unexpected, from seeing previous games with Ace I would have expected him to stick to his guns with the lynch.
Impervious- he has many posts, yet oddly enough, not a single one of them stuck in my mind, to me this means his posts have been empty enough to not be memorable, I think that merits a check
Vigilante Shots - now its *really* debated whether it is best for vigilantes to shoot night one or not, if the vigi is not in imminent danger and is not confident on his mafia kill I belive in saving the shot for later, however some people subscribe to using it for people they would lynch on policy, e.g. liars, or lurkers. If a vigi *had* to fire tonight I would think the best shot would be at an inactive who might be lurking scum. That is the gist of my suggestions on here
Eiii- Lurking, pops up to defend himself, resumes lurking, not a town asset at the moment, so we can do without him
GGQ- more of the same deal with Eiii, lurking inactively, hasn't really weighed in on anything.
why- with a grand total of four posts all he has done is attack jackal, I dont think he is contributing and we can do without him
Vain- I see every one of his posts as either a rehash of old ideas or a non-contribution
darm- because I think it would be hilarious to have him die day one this game too (don't actually shoot him for that, it was a joke...)
Medic Protects
GMarshal- I dont want to die, please dont let me die, I'll go through mafia withdrawal again and it wont be pretty
Ace- he is Ace, high profile target and all that, I want him around in the late game.
Jackal (maybe) - he is a great endgame player, and I wouldn't mind having him around to scum-hunt in the late game, I don't know how likely it is he will be targeted though.
other than that I don't know who scum might go after to be honest, as they risk hitting one of their own whatever they choose to do
Alright, so take a gander and debate my list up and down, who did I forget to include ? Who did I include who shouldn't be there?
I guess we're going to use traditional mafia lingo in this game..... For the DT checks, I'd also want to know about Ace. He is a great player, which is why I'd want to be sure he's on my side. He's also acting a little weird, and I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment. He would be my check tonight, for sure, unless something happens between now and the end of the night. I'm also confused about why. From what I've seen in the thread, he's held in somewhat high regard (this is my first time playing with him, and I haven't observed a game where he played either, so I don't know myself). With having few posts, and generally unconstructive posting (I know most of mine are also pretty useless, but I've got a lot of them, so I'll eventually write something useful, much like how a room full of monkeys with typewriters will eventually come up with the entire work of Shakespeare), it seems like it would be pretty uncharacteristic of an experienced player. I dont think the vigi is in danger yet..... The chance of getting hit tonight/lyched tomorrow is pretty low, and it will probably be far more useful to have the kill around for later. Also, while there are players we can do without, I really think it would be better to lynch them rather than waste a vigi kill on. So I'd agree, unless the Vigi has a really good lead on one of the members of the mafia, it would be better to save the hit for later. Also, while it would be nice to have a medic on our side (among other roles, such as a veteran), we don't know for sure. It would be better to assume that we don't. We're going to need to assume that we'll lose someone tonight, and at this point, it seems to be pretty unlikely that the mafia will force a kill on one of their own. Another thing to worry about - the mafia just lost a member. Unless Rean was the first person contacted by the GF (which I find very unlikely, although it is possible that the GF made that big of a mistake), then there are probably only 2 more people who have to be contacted..... Which means the mafia should know who each other are. While it's not as useful as being able to discuss at night, like most mafia games, it will help them tremendously. We have to assume that for tomorrow night, they'll be able to be somewhat coordinated.....
Makes a point about Ace and why, original thoughts. Thinks vigi should save his shot, his reasoning make sense, and I like it. Scum would like vigs to shoot randomly night 1, as it gives a higher chance that they hit town. Also makes a good point that scum will know each other more quickly than they would before since Rean died.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 29 2011 01:37 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 00:45 GGQ wrote:
The simple fact that Ace didn't die is suspicious enough. Actually, as much as I think Ace is definitely a candidate for a lynch, this is a very bad reason for it. Out of the obvious top 4 players that the mafia would want to eliminate, 1 of them is gone. This does not automatically mean that the other 3 are suspicious.....
Points out bad logic and says why it's wrong.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 30 2011 09:08 Impervious wrote:
Guys, if bum is in fact the analyst, while there is only a ~25% chance that he's actually the cell leader, there is a ~50% chance of getting a red. That is a pretty damn good chance at the moment.
While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night.
I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green).
And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone.
I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now.
This is the post that made me change my mind about lynching bum for sure. He brings up good points, as to why we should have let him at least live throughout the night, and how that would be in town's best interests.
Conclusion: Not the most active contributor, but most of his posts are well-reasoned and thought-out. He brings up new ideas and promotes healthy town discussion, as well as pointing out any errors in reasoning that he sees to the benefit of town. Townie
I'm not sure how this is going to help you get a read on me, but there it is.
I also think we should be discussing vig/dt targets for any blues that are still alive.
I think a DT should 100% check Ace if they haven't already. As far as we know, there's no framers, so any positive result should be correct.
As for vigs, I think we should discuss the merits of shooting Jackal or not now that we know that Bum's result was true. If we don't want to shoot Jackal, I'd say that Darm is a good choice for any vig that feels the need to use his shot tonight.
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EPT
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