EPT[R&S] Shinhan Bank Proleague 10-11 - Page 25
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Carnac
Germany / USA16648 Posts
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VGhost
United States3615 Posts
(Today with apologies to Simplistik who already posted the Nifty Graph.) Place, Team, Record, Game Diff, Matches Left *1. SKT 37-15 +43 (2) *2. CJ 34-18 +41 (2) *3. KT 31-21 +17 (2) --- 4. WJN 25-25 -3 (4) 5. KHAN 24-27 -13 (3) 6. FOX 23-28 -6 (3) --- 7. OZ 23-29 -7 (2) 8. STX 23-29 -16 (2) --- 9. MBC 22-30 -12 (2) 10. ACE 15-35 -44 (4) Woongjin Stars Report: With OZ and STX losing last night, Woongjin needs to win one match in their remaining four to make the playoffs. They play ACE, CJ, KT, and FOX and should go 2-2 (win over ACE, loss to CJ, one win and one loss to KT and FOX but I'm not sure which will be which). Other playoff scenarios: Woongjin, KHAN, and WeMade all control their own destinies right now. Woongjin secures a spot with a win tonight: even with a loss they remain in fourth with the easiest path. If KHAN wins tonight vs FOX, Woongjin and KHAN take the 4th and 5th spots barring miracles. STX would control their own destiny since they have matches against OZ and Wemade remaining. If FOX wins, they takes the upper hand and likely only need to win one more to secure a spot. KHAN would keep an edge in match record but would lose the tiebreaker (if necessary) to OZ. Rooting tonight: Woongjin Stars > Air Force ACE (sorry guys), Samsung KHAN > WeMade FOX (gives the best chance for Woongjin even if they screw up). (On the other hand, a Stars win and a FOX win gives Woongjin a playoff seed straight up.) | ||
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RezChi
Canada2368 Posts
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Doughboy
United States721 Posts
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Doraemon
Australia14949 Posts
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Zona
40426 Posts
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VGhost
United States3615 Posts
Today with thanks for foxmeep for pointing out mistakes. And TanGeng, ditto. Place, Team, Record, Game Diff, Matches Left *1. SKT 37-15 +43 (2) *2. CJ 34-18 +41 (2) *3. KT 31-21 +17 (2) --- 4. WJN 25-26 -5 (3) 5. KHAN 25-27 -10 (2) 6. OZ 23-29 -7 (2) --- 7. FOX 23-29 -9 (2) 8. STX 23-29 -16 (2) 9. MBC 22-30 -12 (2) --- 10. ACE 16-35 -42 (3) News: Well, Woongjin faceplanted (surprise?), and Samsung continues to win. Apparently MBC isn't eliminated after all. Remaining Games vs Contenders: WJN plays FOX. KHAN plays OZ. OZ plays KHAN and STX. FOX plays WJN and STX. STX plays OZ and FOX. Playoff Scenarios: WJN and KHAN each need one win to clinch a playoff spot. At least one of WJN and KHAN will make the playoffs. STX controls their own destiny (vs OZ, vs FOX). If they lose either match they are eliminated on game differential. If they win out, WJN, KHAN, STX make the playoffs. OZ and FOX play independently of each other for the remaining matches. OZ currently holds the tiebreaker edge by two games. WJN, KHAN, OZ, and FOX could all finish at 25-29. KHAN currently is five games behind WJN in the game differential tiebreaker. MBC must win out to make the playoffs, together with not better than 1-1 from OZ, FOX, and STX, and a lot of help from game differential. Rooting tonight: No real rooting interest as far as Stars-fandom is concerned. Hwaseung OZ > STX SouL eliminates STX on game differential. KT Rolster vs MBCGame HERO is MBC's last chance. So I'll just go with personal preference: Hwaseung OZ > STX SouL, MBCGame HERO > KT Rolster. /irrational Killer and Jaehoon fandom | ||
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Crunchums
United States11144 Posts
kespa *facepalm* | ||
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foxmeep
Australia2333 Posts
On June 27 2011 22:32 VGhost wrote: Daily Update (after 6/27 games) Place, Team, Record, Game Diff, Matches Left *1. SKT 37-15 +43 (2) *2. CJ 34-18 +41 (2) *3. KT 31-21 +17 (2) --- 4. WJN 25-26 -5 (3) 5. KHAN 25-27 -10 (2) 6. OZ 23-29 -7 (2) --- 7. FOX 23-29 -9 (2) 8. STX 23-29 -16 (2) --- 9. MBC 22-30 -12 (2) 10. ACE 16-35 -42 (3) News: Well, Woongjin faceplanted (surprise?), and Samsung continues to win. Playoff Scenarios: WJN and KHAN each need one more win to secure a playoff spot for sure. Both have games remaining against contenders (WJN vs FOX, KHAN vs OZ). Stars' other games are CJ and KT: KHAN faces ACE. At least one of WJN and KHAN will make the playoffs. FOX, OZ, and STX all need to win out to make the playoffs. STX controls their own destiny (vs OZ, vs FOX). If they win either match, they eliminate the opposing team. If they lose either match they are eliminated. If they win out, WJN, KHAN, STX ageing make the playoffs. OZ has the hardest remaining schedule to qualify on, playing KHAN and STX. A loss to either eliminates them. FOX also has it tough, playing WJN and STX. A loss to either eliminates them. OZ and FOX could both win out. OZ currently holds the tiebreaker edge by two games. WJN, KHAN, OZ, and FOX could all finish at 25-29. KHAN currently is five games behind WJN and in this scenario would almost certainly be the team eliminated. Rooting tonight: No real rooting interest. STX SouL > Hwaseung OZ eliminates OZ and increases Woongjin's already good odds since STX currently has the worst game differential; Hwaseung OZ > STX SouL eliminates STX. MBCGame HERO vs KT Rolster doesn't matter at all. pretty sure your analysis is wrong. if STX > OZ, then OZ > KHAN, and FOX > STX, OZ will be ahead of STX. neither STX, OZ or FOX can be eliminated for certain in 1 match. Edit: you're right sorry STX cannot lose due to their record. | ||
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VGhost
United States3615 Posts
On June 27 2011 23:42 foxmeep wrote: pretty sure your analysis is wrong. if STX > OZ, then OZ > KHAN, and FOX > STX, OZ will be ahead of STX. neither STX, OZ or FOX can be eliminated for certain in 1 match. Oh, point. Although STX is actually eliminated if they lose because their win differential is so very damn bad. Let me re-run figures and edit. | ||
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
remaining schedules: CJ, KT, WMF Samsung: need 1 win OR 1 loss from two of Oz, STX, WMF OR game diff remaining schedule: Oz, ACE >>> If Woojin and Samsung lose all their games then they fight it out on game differential with any other teams that may have 25 wins. Both SamSung and Woojin will lose based on game diff to Oz and WMF in that case. They may beat out each other. >>>Samsung starts -5 game diff to Woojin, but Woojin has 3 games to take a possible severe beating. Oz: 2 wins and game diff if WMF wins out OR at least 1 loss from both WMF and STX and game differential remaining schedule: STX, Khan STX: 2 wins remaining schedulle: Oz, WMF WMF: 2 wins and game diff if Oz wins out OR at least 1 loss from both Oz and STX and game differential remaining schedule: STX, WJS >>> if STX loses one game, they are worse than WMF or Oz by game differential barring penalty points. >>> if STX wins out they eliminate both WMF and Oz >>> Oz starts off with a +2 game diff over WMF. MBCgame: 2 wins and at least 1 loss from all of Oz, STX, WeMade and game differential remaining schedule: KT, ACE >>> MBC starts off -5 game diff to Oz and -3 game diff to WeMade. edit 1: > Oh yeah, at least 1 loss from two of Oz, STX, WMF translates to any Oz or WMF loss. So either of Samsung or Woojin can secure playoffs for both of them by beating Oz and WMF respectively. STX can do the same by beating either of the teams. edit 2: WMF's remaining schedule | ||
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VGhost
United States3615 Posts
Why does no one want to make the playoffs (except KHAN)??? | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On June 28 2011 00:33 VGhost wrote: Oh, you're right, MBC is still technically in this thing. Why does no one want to make the playoffs (except KHAN)??? Thankfully for Woojin, Khan maybe able to help them out by beating Oz. - see edit ^_^ | ||
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vishrut
United States567 Posts
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VGhost
United States3615 Posts
On June 28 2011 08:20 vishrut wrote: when you are making this analysis. do you just write a computer program or do it by yourself. it would be really hard to do by yourself I do it by myself, which is why I keep making mistakes. I can't speak for other people. | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On June 28 2011 08:20 vishrut wrote: when you are making this analysis. do you just write a computer program or do it by yourself. it would be really hard to do by yourself Testing for the possibility of playoffs is easy enough with a monte-carlo method and enough trials, but that's not very valuable. But for playoff scenarios, it'd be fairly difficult write a program that gets the logic correct AND gives meaningful breakdowns. It's certainly possible and would be an interesting exercise. Unfortunately, you have to feed in the remaining schedule so always takes a bit of data entry. PL playoffs happen twice a year so it's not very useful, and most playoff scenarios aren't that complicated. Usually, it's three or four teams and simple. | ||
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domane
Canada1606 Posts
STX, FOX, and MBC all make significant gain if that -7 set differential takes a dive  | ||
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ShadeR
Australia7535 Posts
On June 28 2011 00:33 VGhost wrote: Oh, you're right, MBC is still technically in this thing. Why does no one want to make the playoffs (except KHAN)??? Khan started off round 6 in 4th place and then proceeded to lose the first 6 matches in a row =_=. | ||
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Doughboy
United States721 Posts
On June 28 2011 11:23 ShadeR wrote: Khan started off round 6 in 4th place and then proceeded to lose the first 6 matches in a row =_=. actually they started off in 5th. Stars were at 23-22 and Khan was at 22-23 at the beginning of round 6. | ||
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Ryo
8787 Posts
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