EPT
Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 21
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I feel that if you are town and alive tonight, you will help tomorrow’s discussion most by raising a case. I think you should post a case on someone regardless of whether they are your most scum read. The people alive can weigh the cases and defenses tomorrow given the information they have (that they are town & potentially informed by cop checks). Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one- On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. Anyway that doesn’t really matter as much because n1k0 is dead, but I just mention it because I noticed a few other things I will share tomorrow if I am alive and maybe you will notice some things too if you re-read to make a case. Be back later, at least we have an exciting finish :3 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 25 2014 06:14 Amiko wrote: Also honestly reading through someone’s posts again I noticed a lot of things I didn’t the first time through or when I re-read without purpose. For example, re-reading I noticed this one- Why would town ask what the result is they flip red? We should have hammered n1k0 on that I think. To be fair; he was dead and buried by that point anyway, no point wasting time on making a stronger case when he was providing no (reasonable) defence. Though your overarching point on re-reading posts is valid. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others. He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred. Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill. N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case. Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this. Lord Tolkien Scummiest thing he's done is the formal lynching proposal, what better way for mafia to control the game than to propose something like this? During day 1, other players had scum reads on him because of his actions, yet n1k0 reads him town. He also kept mentioning specific roles, as if he's trying to figure out what the blue roles are and who they can be, only mafia would be interested in this on day 1. I don't like how he casts doubt on himself being town, saying stuff like "It's possible I'm mafia". It's not that scummy but why do this? I want to believe you are town but you are putting doubt in my head. -- I did this rather quick and I don't like quotes and links to posts where I got this info. I'll post something more detailed if I survived, I just wanted to post my thoughts examining each remaining player as mafia since at this point, it's equally likely any of the remaining players could be mafia. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also). If I survive the night, I'll post analysis about what the opposing kill meant. Don't have the time to write four scenarios. I'm primarily writing about what happens when I die, which can't happen Day 4. First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills. Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post. However, instead of looking for a hesitant player (Beneather and Amiko, the former was just ugh, should've voted on someone else). It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. If I die, it could draw blame onto Amiko, but also be twisted by mafia to make it appear that Amiko is guilty. Thus, my death is unuseable for read purposes. So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum. I can do a scenario where I'm scum too, but I don't have the time atm. And finally: I fingered him in response No context quote of the day from this thread. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/tired_george_michael_arrested_development.gif) Day Four Lord Tolkien the vanilla townie has been killed. You have to decide the next lynch. Good luck! | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
First off, this is going to be the last day if anyone wants to claim cop please start off with that and list your checks so we can evaluate your play/checks. I have a little more to say on this in a responsive post but not right now. I am not a cop, though. theDragoon, I felt the case I wrote against you was fairly weak. I am not decided at this point whether you or Valenius is the last mafia. My post reading Valenius as town after the n1k0 lynch was honest and I felt he was a reliable town. However, when I was making a case for you I noted that you had a similar conclusion here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20838473) so I was concerned that a mafia Valenius would leave the two of us alive because we both indicated we read him as town. Tolkien also gave Valenius a town read in this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#368). The only thing I can really distinguish on this point is that you and I both indicated we were still somewhat solid on our reads of Valenius – I did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20849478) and you did here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20864161). Tolkien didn’t really comment on it afterwards that I can see until his pre-death post. Based on that, my feeling coming into today was that if Valenius was mafia, he would probably not kill one of us; based off that read, I felt that if you died my read on Valenius as town was more likely to be correct - if he was mafia it would be very unlikely he would kill one the two people who had so recently named him town. That said, Tolkien was the target for tonight. Although I had some concerns about Valenius, I was pretty surprised to see Tolkien finger him as a first priority lynch in that last post. On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. I’ll go through your response to my case also. On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1? This is one of the points I raised on you that I did feel was legitimately scummy. I wasn’t sure what Tolkien’s role was, but I didn’t feel comfortable voting for someone who hinted at being a blue role, even if he was voting for OnceKing who I named as towny. I absolutely agree your point that it would be a bad mafia play on your part because you’d expect to get negative attention day 2. For what it’s worth, by the same logic, if n1k0 and I were a scumteam, having both mafia players vote on the same person day 1 (who, if we were mafia, might even flip blue!) seems like an even worse play to me. On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it? I can follow this logic, I just felt like it was a weaker justification than votes on other people. I also raised the Cavalinho vote issue- I agree with your points on that. I felt like this was a weak read (I even noted the Cavalinho thing myself), but it was something to push you on. On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument? In sum, theDragoon, we came into day 4 having indicated that we townread Valenius. At some point in this day we are going to have to start voting. If we cross voted I don’t know who Valenius would pick. But, if he is mafia and we are both town, we need to make sure that we are as sure as we can be that we can trust him to make the right choice. My plan for tomorrow is to try to re-examine Valenius and see what reads I can get out of him and not let my read hang entirely on the n1k0 vote. I also need to give Tolkien’s post a closer look. I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them: @theDragoon – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or Valenius as mafia? @Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia? @Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day)@Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? I'm super sleepy now x.x but I'll try to be extra attentive to the thread tomorrow since it's exciting lylo times. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1. OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them. Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this: On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko. In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia. As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
@Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? When I voted for Valenius, OnceKing had yet to post his case on n1k0 and at the time all the cases on n1k0 were rather weak compared to the ones for Valenius. So I was fairly confident I was right, I only started having doubts after I read OnceKing's post and by the time I read it the majority of the votes were on n1k0. Now is the time to get the lynch right on Valenius. I DO NOT want to lose to a mafia who completely played us all in day 2. I'll be so pissed that he gets away because we instantly label him town as soon as n1k0 flipped red. It would mean he completely outplayed us all and I'm not gonna let myself be outplayed when there's a chance right now to put him down. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
Dragoon; as much as it sucks to be played, don't let that influence your decision. Make it based on true reads, not based on how you'd feel after the game. I'd be pissed at you (or amiko) if you made your choice based on that. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 24 2014 15:19 Amiko wrote: Two quick points 1) There’s gotta be one mafia left. 2) All the town deaths but OnceKing have been vanilla town, so we probably still have a cop. Last night when I read this, I viewed it as a soft claim. If it was (you've since kinda proved it isn't), I could understand the post. It isn't, so it stands out as weird logic to me. There were 6 possible blue roles, of which we've lost one (OnceKing, Doctor). It makes no sense to think that its probable that one of the two remaining town players got picked as cop. I could understand if you'd have said "There's a chance", but probable? No. Could just be weird logic, not necessarily calling it a scummy play.. just wrong. As for your first point, lol. Cases I would encourage people to try to hold reads close to the chest tonight – if we go into day 4, it’ll be 1 mafia vs 2 town, so we want to avoid letting mafia manipulate votes. During night I would still encourage people to try to make cases and challenge play. My general goal for tonight will be to try to draw out a lot of scummy things on people so we can talk about them tomorrow. If I draw a case on everyone, then who knows where my vote will end up Yeah, that's a reasonable play. However, again it does strike me as a bit scummy that you said you'd only put a case on everyone so your vote is unknown, then later on (bottom of post) say you'll only draw up the other cases if you have time. I can understand time constraints (Timezone+Work where I cant post), but following your logic you shouldn't have put any cases up unless you were certain of time, or you had them all ready to go. Your cases, despite trying to hide reads will still give some indication on how you're feeling towards people. theDragoon Day 1: Voting for a blue? theDragoon’s day one play appears a little unusual, but is largely explainable if you consider him to be mafia. During this part of the analysis, keep in mind that theDragoon’s vote day one was on Lord Tolkien. In this post he discusses Tolkien as a potential vote (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=8#156). There’s a few weird things about this post, but this stands out as scummy when discussing Lord Tolkien Here, theDragoon is suggesting that we lynch someone who is softclaiming a blue role. If Tolkien was lynched d1 and flipped as a blue role, how would that information have helped town? This is such a weird suggestion it really throws me (and I feel bad for not criticizing it before). Yep, pretty much agree. I can understand his earlier reasoning, about it being lynch-protection, but the last line.. yeah: It's a bad play. In case you thought theDragoon might just be scumhunting with a weird vote proposal, it’s clear he is serious about Tolkien here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), where he casts his vote. He ultimately sets his vote on Lord Tolkien on the grounds that Tolkien references the mafia QT. I would classify the basis for his vote on Tolkien as scummy at worst, and very weak at best. Moving into day 2 Short Memory / Following the Scum? Day 2 theDragoon seems to forget his reads day 1. Although Tolkien was his top scum read, he starts day 2 by following the path Lord Tolkien sets before him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297) and follows them through the day. I'd disagree with your read of this post, but I still viw it as kinda scummy. To me, it seems to be him assessing the options. However, to base it off Beneather's post (you all know my thoughts on his posts) is stupid. His comment that n1k0 makes a decent argument for voting Cav is pretty flawed in my opinion. That post by n1k0 was one of the one's I picked on during my voting post on him. I don't think playing defensively means you're scum (see Cav/Me Day 1), it's just your mindset. Commenting on what good can come out of your own lynch (with regards to tolkien), I firmly disagree with, as i've stated several times to Tolkien. Lastly, The read on that I'd be paired with Beneather, based on his vote on me. His vote was pretty much nonsensical, considering it was based on him saying i've not contributed.. despite him not actually having any sort of post that adds any value whatsoever. Beneather never had a solid case on me day 1, that's why I didn't respond. The Choice Not Taken Something to note as we look to day 2 is theDragoon’s reads on n1k0. Basically, theDragoon continues to mention n1k0 as a potential scumread, someone who could be voted for another day. theDragoon basically argues that he now wants to lynch Valenius – if Valenius is green, then we should vote n1k0 later. However, for some reason he resists the opposite order, which would likely accomplish the same result, because of pride (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20848746). This explanation strikes me as weird – for one, it’s not using any logic/knowledge/reads, so it’s a weird justification to begin with. Second, it seems to me that the pride-saving move is to bandwagon– then if you are wrong, you are wrong with everyone else. It's an odd one for me. I gave theDragoon an exceptionally easy switch of vote on to n1k0, yet he didn't take it. I provided a situation in which him switching his vote would draw almost no suspicion. Instead, he kept it on me. At that point, n1k0 was a sure lynch. I honestly can't tell right now if this is an incredibly scummy desperation play, or whether it's incredibly townie play. The desperation play would explain itself, but the incredibly townie play is not taking the easy switch and staying with your read. Really, it's a circular logic.. is he bluffing, is he not bluffing? I'm not going to focus on that much more for now, it'll annoy me too much. A Decent Argument theDragoon’s reads on n1k0 also seem unusual. In this post, theDragoon says that n1k0 made a decent argument for n1k0’s vote on Cavalinho. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=15#297). Go to this post and search for anything prior to it mentioning n1k0. You will find theDragoon’s post suggesting he sees contradictions in n1k0’s posts (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821516). You will find the posts I mentioned earlier where theDragoon says he reads n1k0 as slight scum. You’ll only find one argument from n1k0 for his vote on Cavalinho here. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=12#234) But, theDragoon specifically calls this post out as giving him a scum vibe (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257) . What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy . Yup, pretty much the conclusion i drew above. OnceKing I previously questioned why OnceKing wasn’t killed night 1 when he established himself as a strong town leader. I remember thinking that maybe mafia was trying to avoid hitting the targert of a medic save. But, note that here, OnceKing names theDragoon as a “definitely town” (ok to be fair he names me too) – this may explain why mafia did not target him for the n1 kill. Another possibility is that mafia (somehow?) didn’t notice OnceKing’s town presence day 1. At first this might sound silly because to me, OnceKing was firmly establishing himself as a town leader day 1. But, note this post: This suggests that theDragoon only noticed OnceKing's town play on day 2. We know he noticed after his scumpartner n1k0 was lynched, and OnceKing is killed that night. If you look through his filter, you'll also see theDragoon doesn’t discuss OnceKing’s towniness as much as most other players. Past night 1, OnceKing's towniness was never really in question. it was reasonably obvious based on his posting that he was town. Based on his day 1, I'd say Once was going to be the target of a medic save if we had one (that wasn't himself). That'd explain the lack of kill attempt on him, and instead the kill on Robik (Sort of middle of the road between town/mafia based on the average consensus) NEXT POST ~ THAT ONLY TOOK 45 MINS, oh god, this is my whole evening isn't it. Tolkien Your post before the lynch (~7 hours before) was so obviously bait of some sort. Dude. On February 25 2014 11:57 theDragoon wrote: Some quick thoughts on the remaining players, just in case I don't survive the night. These are just quick notes based off reading through each person's filter. Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others. I agree with this, it's similar to my reasoning for not switching from Robik. My scumread was stronger than my townread, and swapping to any of the others was pure guesswork. He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred. Looking back, "I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened." was posted by Amiko well after both OnceKing and I had made our cases on n1k0. Once's argument seemed to be enough to sway everyone else on to n1k0, so this hesitation is kind of scummy to me. Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill. Can be scummy/townie, depending on how you look at it. I don't personally think night discussions are bad. N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former. Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case. Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this. I'm suprised the "Valenius bussed his teammate" argument hasn't really been brought up before now. Everyone was saying n1k0's red flip means im green. Obviously i'm fine with that, it means I have to spend less time defending myself and can have more time to review previous posts for reads. However, given my day 1 play.. which.. let's be honest wasn't particularly great (See: Misread on robik).. I would have had no where near enough confidence to try and take on the remaining days alone. If I were mafia, I'd not bus my teammate 18-hours into a 48-hour cycle, especially when only minor pressure had been brought on him at that point. The easy play there is to go for Beneather, and when he turns up green blame it on lack of solid reads due to his inactivity. That's a play i'd take all the time. (Note: My later read on beneather was based on his posts, not just activity). Tolkiens pre-death post.. On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, to present my thoughts for tonight. If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also). Yep, I don't disagree. Leaving myself, amiko and dragoon who are all reasonably suspicious alive is a higher % play for mafia. If you were alive, literally my whole day was going to be trying to figure out why. First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills. Done. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. I mentioned this above, however i'll try and expand on some of your specifics. In my mind, my case on n1k0 was pretty solid. Not 100%, but I had a 75% mafia feeling on him. The subsequent argument between myself and n1k0 only helped to confirm my read. I've mentioned before how I disagree with any post saying Beneather contributed more than I did day 1. Once then came in and posted his more eloquent views on n1k0, which helped sway some other votes (ty once, saved probably a lot of debating that day). As I mentioned above, I'm suprised it took anyone this long to really mention that voting n1k0 doesn't make me automatically town. In my mind, that doesn't clear anyone in that situation of being mafia. Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post. Again, I disagree. I think he just fell apart. He didn't have a good enough response to any of the arguments thrown by me to start with, never mind the summary by OnceKing. It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. As I've mentioned above.. my day 1 play was a bit shaky. I'm the only one who drew any sort of case (in my eyes, I realise others don't necessarily see it as one) on Robik, so to scum-kill him when i've made that case (that no one else agrees with) would be more pressure than I'd feel comfortable taking. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. If i'm reading this correctly, it's pretty much what my view is on dragoon's vote. It still could be a masterful play in that it's so blatantly obvious to stay on me, that it hides itself. Fuck, not touching this reasoning again. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence). So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum. I've listed Amiko in my scum reads so far all game, however he's been sort of at the edge, less so than other reads (Robik/n1k0). theDragoon's been in my town list since the start of day 2, along with Once. This is despite him slightly-scum reading me, and voting on me. His reads were.. somewhat understandable based on my day 1 play. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to clear myself of those suspicions on me. I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p NEXT POST ~ food soon plz Amiko, you've asked a couple of questions so here gooooooooooooos. I would welcome your comments, but here are the general questions I’d like you to respond to when you get time, I have some points to raise on them: @Valenius – do you think the kills are more consistent with me as mafia or theDragoon as mafia? Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon. The kill could also have been pushed by n1k0 though, it's not a 1 man team? (n1k0 listed as most scummy by robik.. maybe killing and hoping nobody really picks up on his list?) @Valenius – I think you owe us a fairly extensive post. I don’t even mind if it’s a case on me, I think your last few posts have been mostly lamenting inactivity without doing anything to encourage activity. Give us something meaty (this sentence was made to compete with Tolkien’s no context quote of the day) Done. @Valenius: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? As i've stated earlier, probably around 75% raising up to 100% after the following argument with n1k0. NEXXXXXXXXT LT and I both have the same theory regarding Valenius. When I wrote my pre-day 4 post I thought I was being a bit paranoid about Valenius. After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia. Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked. After n1k0's flip all the remaining players had a town read on Valenius, despite him being scrutinized pre-n1k0 flip for being scum. I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1. Come on, i've discussed my vote on him countless times over the last few days. Lord Tolkien agreed that my explanation for it was reasonable from my point of view, and that my reasoning for not switching had logic to it. "Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked." - It clearly didn't, please stop trying to portray me as if i was 100% town yesterday. Someone should've picked up that possibility of bussing yesterday (mentioned higher up zz) instead of giving me a free-ish pass. OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them. Am I alone in thinking that my case and subsequent posts on n1k0 were a good case too? Despite being the first to really go on him, i've got very little credit (apart from the flip-reads) on the n1k0 kill. Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this: On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko. I'm not sure if Amiko would be stupid enough to go for that, although it could be purely coincidence. As i stated right at the top, LT was the obvious obvious kill choice for last night. In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia. In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far. As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia. Read my above post, don't be mis-guided by thinking how you'd feel after the game. -.- Right, food time. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
**** formattings wrong. too eager to press post. Guys, if you struggle to figure it out, let me know and i'll copy and reformat. cursed [quote] tags. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far. Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction. | ||
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