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Newbie Mini Mafia II - Page 16

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GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 05 2012 06:32 GMT
#301
A Killer Cuppa Tea has replaced CookieMaker!
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 05 2012 06:45 GMT
#302
On January 05 2012 15:32 GreYMisT wrote:
A Killer Cuppa Tea has replaced CookieMaker!


I'm sorry, I know I said I going to bed, but wat? That was unexpected. Could he just not play anymore? Cause he certainly wasn't inactive.
meow
AnxiousHippo
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia1451 Posts
January 05 2012 06:50 GMT
#303
I had a quick glimpse over everything, found Greymist's post at the end.
Are we allowed to know why CM left?
An apple a day keeps the Protoss away | TLHF
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Profile Joined December 2011
97 Posts
January 05 2012 06:52 GMT
#304
On January 05 2012 15:32 GreYMisT wrote:
A Killer Cuppa Tea has replaced CookieMaker!



Howdy y'all.

I'm a little behind on the topic, so I'm gonna catch up and write up a nice big post for y'all later on today.

Before that though: Hi! I'm AKillerCuppaTea, but you can call me Tea. I'm from the UK. My experience of mafia on TL is none whatsoever, but I have played a pretty large amount of games on a number of other forums as well as irc.

Any questions you might have for me, please put here and I'll have a look at and answer then as soon as I can.

Oh, and I don't know the circumstances of my replacement /shrug.
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 05 2012 06:54 GMT
#305
On January 05 2012 15:45 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 15:32 GreYMisT wrote:
A Killer Cuppa Tea has replaced CookieMaker!


I'm sorry, I know I said I going to bed, but wat? That was unexpected. Could he just not play anymore? Cause he certainly wasn't inactive.


The replacement was not forced upon him. further questions regarding the act of this replacement will be answered during the post game.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Profile Joined December 2011
97 Posts
January 05 2012 06:55 GMT
#306
Mmm. I have two questions actually.

1) in a number of the other forums I've played on, people tend to have easily visible avatars which I use to remember who their are (kinda puts a face to a name, making em easier to remember). Is there a way to do summat similar here or am I stuck with learning all your names?

2) is there a way to quote multiple posts at once easily? In one of the forums inplay on, there's a button you can click that adds each quote to a sorta clipboard and all the quotes appear when you click on Post Reply. I'm not being very clear here, but I don't know how else to ddescrkbe it. It's sorta an "Add-Quote" button.
AnxiousHippo
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia1451 Posts
January 05 2012 06:57 GMT
#307
On January 05 2012 15:55 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
Mmm. I have two questions actually.

1) in a number of the other forums I've played on, people tend to have easily visible avatars which I use to remember who their are (kinda puts a face to a name, making em easier to remember). Is there a way to do summat similar here or am I stuck with learning all your names?

2) is there a way to quote multiple posts at once easily? In one of the forums inplay on, there's a button you can click that adds each quote to a sorta clipboard and all the quotes appear when you click on Post Reply. I'm not being very clear here, but I don't know how else to ddescrkbe it. It's sorta an "Add-Quote" button.

1) You gotta go by name, the closest things to avatars are the sc units you see next to people's names.
2)You gotta click Quote so it opens in a new tab and cut and paste them together, atleast that's how I do it.
An apple a day keeps the Protoss away | TLHF
Blurry
Profile Joined August 2010
Switzerland125 Posts
January 05 2012 06:58 GMT
#308
On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:

<snip>

Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'.


I may be a little late on this, but this is a clear tell for me that he is scum. The "I'm not contributing because you already took my points" is simply trying to absolve yourself from having to provide any analysis.

##Vote: CookieMaker
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 05 2012 07:00 GMT
#309
just as another note for this and future replacements, I will be automatically switching all of the votes from the old player to the new one.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
AnxiousHippo
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia1451 Posts
January 05 2012 07:04 GMT
#310
I might not be able to go through everything in time so I'll make a placeholder vote and hope I have time tomorrow morning to change it if need be.
##vote:Xeris
This is more of a pressure vote atm, since all his done is said he disagrees with RL and then says he doesn't want to lynch at all first day. Since all the pressure's been on cephira and CM he's been quiet.
On January 05 2012 05:34 Xeris wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 05:16 Tunkeg wrote:
On January 05 2012 04:42 Xeris wrote:
I don't favor randomly lynching people in the first night -- unless there is some actual suspicion. Statistically, maybe it's better to random lynch, but I feel like the chances you might randomly kill a cop // medic make it not worth it.

I prefer using the first day to try to get reads on people, then wait until Day 2 to use the information gained in Day 1, based on who ends up dying / etc to make a more reasoned/educated prediction about who might be mafia.

Randomly lynching is a really stupid idea.


I agree on random lynching is bad, and I won't participate in a random lynch. But a lynch on the most suspicious player on day one I am all for.

So please clearify for me, would you prefer a no-lynch day 1 over a lynch on someone who is slightly scummy?


If there are legitimate concerns about someone on the first day, sure, I'd probably participate in a lynch. But I don't really see how you can determine that on the first day when you have basically NO information to go off. Further, because this is online mafia, you can't even read people the same way... I don't see how you can possibly get a good enough ready on someone in the first day, before any action has happened, enough to confidently lynch someone.

On January 05 2012 05:34 Xeris wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 05:16 Tunkeg wrote:
On January 05 2012 04:42 Xeris wrote:
I don't favor randomly lynching people in the first night -- unless there is some actual suspicion. Statistically, maybe it's better to random lynch, but I feel like the chances you might randomly kill a cop // medic make it not worth it.

I prefer using the first day to try to get reads on people, then wait until Day 2 to use the information gained in Day 1, based on who ends up dying / etc to make a more reasoned/educated prediction about who might be mafia.

Randomly lynching is a really stupid idea.


I agree on random lynching is bad, and I won't participate in a random lynch. But a lynch on the most suspicious player on day one I am all for.

So please clearify for me, would you prefer a no-lynch day 1 over a lynch on someone who is slightly scummy?


If there are legitimate concerns about someone on the first day, sure, I'd probably participate in a lynch. But I don't really see how you can determine that on the first day when you have basically NO information to go off. Further, because this is online mafia, you can't even read people the same way... I don't see how you can possibly get a good enough ready on someone in the first day, before any action has happened, enough to confidently lynch someone.

An apple a day keeps the Protoss away | TLHF
Xeris
Profile Blog Joined July 2005
Iran17695 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-05 10:06:52
January 05 2012 09:58 GMT
#311
I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish).

I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad.

Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully


Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.

Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl
twitter.com/xerislight -- follow me~~
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Profile Joined December 2011
97 Posts
January 05 2012 11:22 GMT
#312
Ok, i'm really far behind right now and rereading quite a lot. I've read up to page 8 or so, and up to this point it seems to be mostly commentating on NL vs Lynch.


Allow me to state my stance on this (it differes massively from my predecessor, it seems).


There are three ways we can handle D1. We can 1) No Lynch, 2) Mislynch or 3) Lynch Scum.
It is not possible to Random Lynch.

Why? Because Random implies that there is no reasoning behind the lynch and that it happens, almost spontaneously. It is already too late for this to happen.

it is not an accident that i ordered the three things we can do in that order. I order them from Worst --> Best. I'll explain why:

1) No Lynch - This is badbadbad and we should never ever ever NL on any day that isn't a MYLO. The lynch is town's Primary Weapon. Not the cop. Not the doc. Not any other Power Role. The lynch. This is, when you get down to it, a game of the Uninformed Majority vs the Informed Minority. The Majority - town - has no information. The minority - scum - has a lot of information. The way to beat the minority? Information.

How, then, do we gain information? Through cop results? Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyy-no. Nevieer rely on a Power Role. That's silly. What you gonna do the one game that the cop dies N1? Roll over and die? No, the best form of information is the lynch for reasons i shall dictate below.


2) Mislynch - Oh no, we lynched town. Is it the end of the world? Nope. Not even if we lynch a PR (altho i hope we don't). Its not an ideal situation, but its nowhere near as bad as it may sound. Consider the following:

1) Scum must vote too.
2) Scum know who Scum are.
3) Scum will be eager to lynch Town*

By analysing behaviour and how people vote, and in what order, and how they jump on and off wagons, it can be incredibly helpful to see who the Scum are. Now, i'm not claiming to be the best in votal analysis (That's a friend of mine, we cann him The Machine because of how damned consistent he is in finding scum), but i'm pretty decent at it. Here are a few pointers:
--Scum doesn't like to start wagons.
--Scum doesn't like voting next to each other
--Scum will often jump onto a wagon on a townie early
--Scum will often jump onto a wagon on a fellow scumate late.

In fact, in my experiance playing mafia, i find that finding connections between people is much easier when we Mislynch then whren we actually hit scum. Although, thats just personal experiance, really.


*Of course, this does not mean that they won't lynch scum in order to get on town's good side, but thats Wine.


3) Lynching Scum - yay, we're a scum down and even have a juicy wagon to analyse! Awesomesauce!



So, what am i saying here? Lynch for the sake of lynching? Of course not, that's terrible!!! And i think this is the problem that most people who are Anti-D1-Lynch as Town have with Lynching. We make an Informed Lynch, not a Random Lynch. We ask everyone for their specific reasons for voting and if they ain't to par, we hold them to it.


Now, i'm going to admit to a Thing here. I'm not the best scumhunter in the world. I tend to find more scum via mechanics then by actual hunting (hence the reason this post has been mostly a mechanics post then a read-post), but i've learned a great tool that helps me hunt scum. Questions!

Seeing how people react to questions is incredibly informative. As such, i am going to ask the follow questions to everyone in the game, both to start conversation and also to give people reason to slip. Most of what i've read so far (i read the fikrst 8 pages and skimmed through the rest) have been mostly going back and forth over the same little things. i'm hoping these questions will bring some more information to the table. (Also, these questions aren't rolefishing because im asking them of everybody.)


1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why?
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why?
3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why?
4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))

5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote.
6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!

I'll answer my own questions, as well as vote someone, and post some reads, when i have caught up proper (which should be later today). i thought i'd post a mechanics-related post before i caught up and posted reads to show y'all that i was here and also state my opinion on a discussion that occured before i joined the game.
Blurry
Profile Joined August 2010
Switzerland125 Posts
January 05 2012 13:43 GMT
#313
In answer to the questions that A Killer Cup of Tea posed:

1:
I would check Cephiro as right now I am on the fence on whether or not he is scum. Also, confirming him as either innocent or guilty will more benefit us then any other player at this time as he seems to be the most solid of all the players under suspicion at the moment.
2:
Probulous is the obvious choice as he has posted the most solid analysis thus far.
3:
If I was a vigilante I would kill A Killer Cup of Tea as when CM was playing he was the most suspicious to me and I would have to go by who I was most certain of being scum.
4:
Cephiro as it would function as a soft cop and would further implicate him if there was no kill (although prove nothing). Alternatively it could also clear him.
5:
CM was the most suspicious in my books and as it has been made clear that an educated vote is the best way to go, the one that seems most scummy to me is CM.

I will not change my vote to Cephiro to follow some as I have more certainty that CM/Tea is scummy. I'm driving back to VA from Montreal today so I can be active for maybe a few more hours but wont be for the rest of the day.
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Profile Joined December 2011
97 Posts
January 05 2012 14:18 GMT
#314
Thanks for your answers! I've still not caught up yet, just checking this topic in between HomestoryCup games!

I will not change my vote to Cephiro to follow some as I have more certainty that CM/Tea is scummy. I'm driving back to VA from Montreal today so I can be active for maybe a few more hours but wont be for the rest of the day.


If you would be so kind, could you post a couple of lines as to what CM did that was so scummy? I'm sure i'll end up reading it anyways as i catch up, but i'd like it from the horse's mouth, so to speak.
Blurry
Profile Joined August 2010
Switzerland125 Posts
January 05 2012 14:43 GMT
#315
On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 12:46 Jitsu wrote:
RE: Cookie, Analysis

Damn, you're "Big Read" is of a suspected town player.
And another suspected town player.

Instead of posting who you think the Town players are, why don't you actually give us some reads on who the Scum players are? I think that would be more beneficial in a game where finding Mafia matters. Especially since we're 24 hours in and I don't clearly recall you posting any scum tell.

At all.


Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3.

Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'.

##Vote for CatsnHats


The "I don't have to post analysis because he already said it post"

Other than that most of his posts have contributed nothing and have just been filler. Didn't post his reads on any players until he was pressured into doing it.
Liquid`Sheth
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States2095 Posts
January 05 2012 14:48 GMT
#316
Gmorning all.


On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 14:20 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok, well I'm going to sleep now. I wasn't completely sure if the DT for one mafia was a good trade or not, so I brought it up to see everyone's reactions. I am leaning its probably good, if they have some other confirmed townies for sure. And this will all changed when we learn whether someone was RB'ed during night. (Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out). I want to hear more on that, and our cases from our lurkers.

Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D!



Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options.

Set Up:
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town

They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now.

I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning.

Can we got a vote count please?


I was suggesting here that "they" medic or detective should come out if they know more then just one mafia, such as one mafia and 3 confirmed town. Detective can figure this out a lot easier then medic, but medic can definitely find a lot of confirmed townies. I realize that just because there is a detective doesn't mean theres a medic or a RB even. I just meant that IF we get RB'ed and your a detective, we then know there's a medic. This should influence the DT's thoughts on coming out or not.

I read through CookieMaker's / A K C T's filter. Cookie's filter looked a little bad. He talked a lot about his read on CatsNHats and then never posted it. A K C T I like that your asking questions, but could you please post a few reads you have as well?

@Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry... he hasn't posted much and I'm not convinced CatsNhats isn't just completely new to the game. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while we have better people to pressure.


1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why? NOT Probulous, as I'd be worried he was going to die at night, I'd determine someone such as Gonzaw or Tunkeg.
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg.
3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why? Probably no one, if I was forced to kill someone (Town CK) I'd probably kill A K C T (Cookie Maker) or Cephiro, depending on who we lynch.
4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
I'd probably RB either Cephiro or Cookie, depending on who we lynch.

5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote.
I have a vote on Cephiro. Its explained in two posts that I posted earlier + Prob's analysis.
6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!
Team LiquidUnderneath it all they were really quite nice. They just got screwed up. Mostly by stuff that wasn't entirely their fault.
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 05 2012 14:53 GMT
#317
I would like to remind everyone that editing your posts is against the rules. Feel free to double or even triple post if you must, but do not edit.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Tunkeg
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
Norway1235 Posts
January 05 2012 15:49 GMT
#318
Sad to see you leave CookieMaker, hope it wasn't because the amount of pressure that was put on you in the end here, and that you for this reason are discouraged to play anymore. If this was the reason for leaving, I am sorry about it, but please try another game and remember to not take anything said in the game personally, it is a game of limited information and different agendas, and different strategies to obtain information.

Welcome to the game A Killer Cuppa Tea.
Blurry
Profile Joined August 2010
Switzerland125 Posts
January 05 2012 15:53 GMT
#319
Okay, my last post for the day:

Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.

Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.

One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 05 2012 16:10 GMT
#320
Okay everyone, I am back and catching up on the whole thread, re-reading everything a few times to be sure that I am not missing anything. I will soon be doing two bigger posts: One to respond against any accusations made on me & answering any possible questions, and another to share my analysis on every player (but myself).
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