EPTPreface
VP vs PSG.LGD was one of the seemingly closest matchups in this major with all three games lasting over 40 minutes and the final game resulting in a score of 25-23. Despite this, I'd like to put forth the argument that all three games were pretty thoroughly decided from the drafts alone.
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/4564903836
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/VtwWSL0.png)
On first glance alone it might appear to be an even draft, but in reality I'd say that it's a pretty strong 70-30 outdraft where LGD wins [70% chance LGD wins if both teams play well]. Now to break down what the reasoning is behind this and what lead this to being so.
In DotA you'll typically see a singular hero being a team's "game winning hero" which is often the hero that you'll want to be relatively uncountered as well as being strong against the enemy team's heroes. The team will put focus on enabling this hero and making sure that it has a strong game as their success largely relies on that hero having a good game and strong impact. In this game for LGD that's Spectre and for VP it's fairly split between Troll and Morph (with a bit more emphasis on Morph)
If you break down the draft order you'll see a very clear list of "let's pick X because it counters Y" from both sides. Such as:
- Grimstroke hardcounters Pango
- Pugna is strong against Grimstroke, Enigma, and Troll
- Bane supplies LGD with a means to cancel black hole
- Ursa is strong against Doom and renders him unable to lane should they be laning against one another
- Spectre hardcounters Enigma, Grimstroke, and Doom.
- Troll is strong against Pango and Ursa
- Morphling is strong against Spectre
You'll notice I used varying terms between hardcounter and 'is strong', this was purposeful. What inevitably happened this game was LGD managed to make it out of the draft with their centerpiece being relatively uncountered while also being a hardcounter to 3/5 of VP's lineup resulting in a fairly clean-cut victory for LGD despite the score, networth, or even overall game appearance seeming even because when push comes to shove Spectre would steamroll them in any fight.
Why is LGD's teamfight so much stronger despite the counters listed and how does Spectre play into this?
The two focal points of what makes LGD so favored are vision and mobility. Spectre counters heroes that are simply immobile and unable to escape the illusion as well as any chasing enemies that are following up during haunt. The threat of playing against Spectre isn't just what lies on the surface, it's the fact that her Desolate reduces vision of enemies by 70% making followup advances from her allies that much more uncountered and potent. For instance, Grimstroke being a counter for Pangolier is reliant upon him landing Soulbind on Pango during his roll to stop him from advancing or Phantom Embrace on him before he starts, but with reduced vision he's all but helpless to actually get his spells off before he's cut down thus giving Pango free roam during a teamfight. Enigma is also particularly susceptible as he's often viewed as a strong counter-initiator with the threat of a blackhole, but Spectre causing so much chaos in a fight and being able to simply instantly get on top of Enigma cancelling his blink or any chance at gaining good positioning he's essentially nullified. These two major components alone let LGD simply wipe half of VP during any given teamfight before picking away at the not-so-mobile Doom and Troll that remain, before finally bringing down the Morph.
+ Show Spoiler +
Might continue with this for games two and three as there's other comparable observations to be made regarding those drafts, but I'm extremely tired right now and leaving this as is.
Fun fact: Doom, Spectre, Enigma, Pugna, and Disruptor were in 2 out of the 3 games.
Fun fact: Doom, Spectre, Enigma, Pugna, and Disruptor were in 2 out of the 3 games.
Hope you enjoyed the read as well as the Major thus far.
