WCS Season Three
Premier League

WCS Ro32 Week 2
Group Previews: E/F/G/H

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Group E:
Group F:
Group G:
Group H:

Terrans and zergs had a pretty good time in Burbank, with 3 and 4 members of each race advancing to the Ro16 from the first four groups. Only one protoss, elfi, managed to break into the next stage of the competition. Harstem, who reached the Ro16 last season, came up short against Petraeus after defeating MajOr. ShoWTimE, a surprising quarterfinalist from season 1, succumbed to Sen in the fifth set rematch. Has, everyone's favorite protoss, suffered a similar fate against iaguz. Had a few things gone differently for the warriors from Aiur we could have seen more protoss in the Ro16, but their kin from Europe will have to make up the numbers in week 2 of WCS.

Meanwhile, 4 of last season's quarterfinalists coasted to the next round. Polt, Hydra, Jaedong and MarineLorD all advanced in first place with ease—three 4-1s and a sweep for Hydra. All four players looked a step above their groupmates, and on current form they are likely to reach the Ro8 again. Everyone's eyes will be on MarineLorD in particular. After reaching the quarterfinals in his debut season, he could make it two-for-two in season 3. That would certainly catapult his name to the top of the European dogpile, putting him in the same stratosphere as Bunny, Lilbow and Snute.

Despite their abject defeat, some of the best games of the week involved protoss. Has' games in particular entertained as much as they baffled. All 9 of his games included some sort of unorthodox play, and he almost, almost made it work. The casters in particular had a blast, and it may go down in history as one of the most exciting casts in WCS. Make sure to catch all the VODs at twitch.tv/wcs as we prepare for the Cologne installment of the Ro32.

Group E

Most of the time, it's possible to have a grasp on what a group has to offer even without intimate knowledge of every player and their playstyles. Then, there are groups where one has to admit that he has no idea what might happen even though he has information about 2 or 3 of the players. This is one of those groups. In fact, this may be one of the most interesting Ro32 groups we've ever had.

There are two main factors that contribute to this inscrutable group. First, of course, is PvP. Even though the matchup has matured, there is still a large element of luck when it comes to the roulette of protoss builds. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but more often than not it only determines an advantage or disadvantage. It's rather bizarre how many of the most successful protoss insist on believing in luck while some of the worst go the Oz-route and rely on skill. PvP has become an exciting and varied matchup, but it's still often impossible to tell who's better or who's worse.

The next elements of this cocktail of surprise are the two race switchers, Shana and Neeb. As if switching places, Neeb converted to protoss and Shana moved over to terran. We know very little about the Chinese player, but we do remember his odd, almost Has-like games from WCS AM 2014 Season 3. His games vs CranK in Challenger League proved that even protoss had to deal with protoss bullshit, and his Premier League stint did little to dispel that notion. Perhaps his tenure of cheese will make him impenetrable against proxy oracles and Rotti builds as terran, but we've yet to see any of his games with his new race. This will be an interesting new debut for the notorious race switcher.

Going the opposite direction is Neeb. You can't blame anyone for disbelieving in the firetruck heading into his Challenger match against StarDust, but he changed more than a few minds after beating the Korean in a tight series. Neeb showed a lot of comfort and nuance in his new race, and it'll be exciting to see whether he really has figured out protoss or he just lucked his way back into Challenger. We're not quite sure whether he's in with the Luck crowd or the Oz crowd, so we'll have to wait for a few more high profile matches before we decide his fate.

One protoss that does belong to one tribe is Lilbow. The French maestro believes in the Luck of Aiur (he admitted it in an interview), and it's easy to see why. While he owns series wins against the likes of Rain, MaNa and HuK, he has also experienced defeat against players like Bordan, DmC and Zasa (albeit, mostly in go4sc2 Cups). Even though it's his weakest matchup, he still possesses a 65% winrate. That's better than a coinflip, and perhaps the gods of luck are on his side. Losing low profile mirrors in exchange for high stakes series wins is a trade anyone would make, and it seems Lilbonaparte is blessed. Last season's runner up may not need to rely on fortune's favor to advance from the Ro32, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.

That may come into play if he meets GunGFuBanDa in the winners' match, which most people should expect. The German has shown the most amount of skill in the matchup lately, and it is by far his best. At 65%, it is a good 10 percentage points ahead of his other matchups. ShoWTimE is the only protoss that has beaten GunGFu in a series since March 9th for an astonishing 52-10 record. That's a whopping 84% winrate in a span of 6 months, unheard of even though some of his wins have come against lower level opposition. It's quite clear that GunGFuBanDa is currently one of the best PvPers on the continent, but we've seen these types of streaking players crash and burn at a moment's notice. Is GunGFuBanDa simply too skillful to be affected by luck, or so incredibly lucky that he's never coming down? I guess it's time to find out.

Predictions:

Lilbow < Neeb
Shana < GunGFuBanDa
Neeb < GunGFuBanDa
Lilbow > Shana
Neeb < Lilbow?

GunGFuBanDa and Lilbow to advance to the Ro16. Probably.

Group F

Without a doubt, 2015 has to be the most disappointing year in ForGG's SC2 career. After finally breaking his duck and winning DreamHack Winter 2014, it seems as though he's slowly regressed over the course of the year. Whether he is finally content to dial it in or there's some sort of malaise affecting his play is impossible to tell, but there's certainly something wrong with ForGG. After displaying masterful mech in November in order to dismember the BlizzCon champion, Park Ji Soo has curiously lost his step. He hasn't had to play many zergs in 2015, but it remains one of his more vulnerable matchups. In an era where mech vs zerg appears close to unbeatable in the hands of the best terrans, ForGG has yet to carve his name into the mounain of terran's most stolid steamrollers. Still, it has been a reliable matchup for him bar a few blips, and it has been his TvT (vs Bunny, vs Polt) and TvP (vs GunGFuBanDa) that have let him down this year.

Fortunately, he has now been gifted an all zerg group to start making amends for a WCS year of anonymity. He should mech every chance he gets, and we'll finally be able to see whether ForGG is still one of the best mech terrans after his transcendental series against Life. His downward trajectory throughout the year suggests an early exit in the Ro32, but even a slumping ForGG should be good enough to get past these three zergs.

The first person to test the Millenium Terran will be iAsonu. The Chinese Zerg has taken the mantle from TooDming and XiGua to become China's most consistent zerg player in WCS, and he has yet to fall out of Premier league this year. Still, with only one rough Ro16 due to a relatively mild Ro32 group, we still don't know whether he can be considered the country's best player. It's difficult to compare Chinese tournament results with WCS due to a disparity in metas—for example, Mystery's 6 oracle hatch snipe build in PvZ—but iAsonu has yet to win a ZvZ in WCS proper. His 0-2s against TLO and Hydra could have been expected, but he didn't appear as solid as his predecessors who seemed to excel in the mirror. The only terran he has had to face was Xenocider, and we don't know what novel solutions he might have in mind against the terror of mech. Even though he iAsonu has become a staple of the league, it will still take some convincing for us to believe that he can live up to TooDming's or XiGua's exploits.

Another man with a legacy to face is Zanster. The Team Property Zerg comes from one of the traditional powerhouses of Starcraft, Sweden, but the country has faced an identity crisis as of late. NaNiwa's abject comeback has shown no signs of turning around, and we've seen some up-and-comers flash and fade. Zanster is the next Swedish wonder to try and take his country back into the limelight, and he could become the next debutante to strike gold. This is his first season in Premier league, but he has been hovering close to qualification a few times before. Though his travels to LANs have only yielded a few bracket appearances, sometimes all it takes is one good tournament for a player to go from strength to strength. His 3-0 of FireCake, almost a worthy heir to Stephano himself, could be the turning point of his career if he can carry it over in this group.

The final player in Group F is also playing with some pressure, even though he'd like you to believe otherwise.



This season will mark Kane's last as a full time progamer, and his return to schooling will most likely end his successful stint in Premier league. Very few players have been able to balance school and competitive gaming, and it will be interesting to see whether Kane continues to attend tournaments if his schedule allows it. He may act like he's ready to lose, but Kane is quite a competitive and stubborn zerg. He isn't going to go down without a fight—or at least a few incendiary tweets as he goes down in flames.

Predictions:

Zanster > Kane
iAsonu < ForGG
Zanster < ForGG
Kane > iAsonu
Zanster > Kane

ForGG and Zanster to advance to the Ro16.

Group G

Group G marks the first of a pair of terran-less groups, so strap yourselves in for lots of PvZ from here on in. First up is a Snute desperate to make amends for his Season 2 failure. By his own high standards, it’s been a relatively poor year so far for Liquid’s Aasgaardian, and he currently ranks 33rd on the WCS points ladder. Part of that has been his weakened play vs Terran; while his ZvZ and ZvP have actually been very strong (near 70% win rates for both during 2015), his ZvT stands at a mere 55%. Luckily for Snute though, he’ll only have the former two to worry about here. As we’ve seen from IEM Shenzhen, Snute’s ZvP game is currently on point, taking victories over both Rain and Classic, but how that success translates to the more… unorthodox style of protoss he’ll be facing here is uncertain.

Something we are sure of is that Snute should fancy himself if he finds himself up against Elazer—the Polish zerg is currently winless in five attempts against his fellow European. Last season was a triumph for Elazer—his very first successful qualification for WCS—and he’ll be looking to go one better this time round. He impressed in a tough group—beating MajOr before losing in tight games against Polt and TLO—and a similar level of performance this time round in arguably an easier group may just be enough. His ZvP has looked great this year—knocking out ShoWTimE and Welmu in consecutive Challenger appearances and making it look easy both times round—and while his ZvZ may be somewhat lacking (54% win rate this year), the matches against the two protosses in the group may well be enough to carry him through tonight.

One of those protoss is a familiar sight in foreign competition by now. Jim’s another player who’ll be disappointed by his results this year. He may have regained the title of ‘Best in China’ by picking up the GPL Season 2 title in May, but it’s his foreign results that we’ve come to know him for, and there’s simply been nothing to match his WCS America runs from 2014, or his top 4 finish at IEM Shenzhen last year. At the start of the year, he’d have looked at the weakened field and liked his chances of another lengthy run, but two exits in the Round of 32 tell their own story, and he’ll be determined to make amends in his third and final attempt of the year. Like many protosses in the Chinese scene, Jim is a lover of immortal all-ins against zergs, and early aggression should be expected, with DT rushes especially common.

Against the last member of the group though, anything can happen. After a tight 3-2 over Xenocider in Challenger, Hitman’s finally emerged from the depths of NA ladder onto the WCS stage. The young American protoss is without a doubt the unknown quantity going into this group. He’s played fewer than 200 career games, and this will be his first LAN experience. Famed for his highly aggressive play, he’s unlikely to mix things up now that it’s brought him so far. That means that you’ll likely see his 7 gate all-in against zerg at least once, while early gateway aggression in PvP is also highly likely. It remains to be seen if he can keep his composure in the spotlight, but if he plays to form then expect explosive games.

Predictions:

As we’ve come to expect over the past few months, this group will likely come down to whether the zergs in the group can hold gateway aggression. The good thing for both Snute and Elazer is that they’ve proved themselves capable in standard ZvP; the bad thing is that standard play might not be what they’re given here. Regardless, both have done enough to justify our faith in them.

Snute > Jim
Hitman < Elazer
Snute > Elazer
Jim > Hitman
Elazer > Jim

Snute and Elazer to advance to the Ro16.

Group H

Maybe if this were 2013 we'd call viOLet a safe bet for the Ro16. However, things have changed a lot since the Surgeon Zerg was last a championship contender, and he's so far shown us little to suggest he still has what it takes. He's been ousted in the Ro32 in both season so far, the only Korean to fall in the first stage all year. StarDust's ignominious defeat in Challenger this season has saved viOLet from the distinction of lowest Korean performance, but he still has to make up for a year of disappointment. Fortunately, he gets to play what used to be his best matchup. Unfortunately, that might not mean a lot right now. With 5 straight set defeats in ZvZ (albeit against Koreans), viOLet hasn't exactly been sharp. He hasn't had a high profile win in the matchup since March against Snute, and a loss to Ret contributed to last season's failure. Many have wondered why we've seen very little of viOLet this year, but his lack of tournament participation has come down to his inability to qualify. His tenure in WCS may be stable, but he to expect more than Ro32 defeats.

Replacing him as one of the zerg staples of the tournament is TLO. The Liquid Zerg has quietly put together an impressive year with two Ro8s so far. Most of the time, he still doesn't look like a championship contender, but he has had his moments. His 2-1 victory against Polt in last season's Ro32 showed remarkable poise, though he did lose 0-3 in their Ro8 rematch. However, he should have more than enough to navigate a group with 2 other zergs. He and Snute seem to enjoy the ZvZ matchup, and TLO banked on his understanding of the mirror to win his Challenger league match against Bly 3-1. It's about time TLO received due praise for a very good year, but will the title of favorite come back to haunt him?

One possible landmine is a potential teamkill with MaNa. The Liquid teamkill had become an institution in WCS EU throughout its life, but it was somehow avoided for much of 2015. Even though Liquid continue to have the most players in WCS, this is actually only the second time we'll have a group with two Liquid players in it. MaNa was involved in the first group with Bunny in Season 1, and he'll hope for a repeat of that group in Season 3. He advanced in first place from that group, while he was out last in season 2. MaNa's fate will likely rest on his ability to adjust to each zerg int he group. While he does have the advantage of having to prepare for only one race, MaNa isn't exactly the most versatile tool in the shed. All three zergs are very different in their approach, and MaNa could get figured out as the evening progresses if he insists on playing a singular style.

That brings us to the group's biggest mystery: XiGua. While the Watermelon zerg became a known quantity throughout WCS AM's life, and in fact one of the strongest Chinese imports, he's so far only had 1 good season in WCS. Replaced by TooDming last season in China Challenger, we haven't seen a lot of him in tournaments. However, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the Chinese circuit. He is routinely in the semi finals of big tournaments, even though he hasn't quite won a major since 2012. His descent has been slow in terms of results, but XiGua is still a very capable zerg with a very balanced playstyle. Though he does have a weakness of getting stuck in Lair, that's usually not as big a deal in ZvZ as long as he can end it in the midgame.

Predictions:

TLO > viOLet
XiGua > MaNa
TLO > XiGua
viOLet < MaNa
XiGua > MaNa

TLO and XiGua to advance to the Ro16.

Writers: lichter, munch.
Editors: lichter.
Graphics: Meru.
Stats: Aligulac