The mirror match group is an institution in big league the world over. Each season, there's always that one group that has 3 or 4 players of the same race, and usually it's one of the more hotly contested groups of that round. While many people get excited by potential TvT groups, there is a lot of disdain thrown at PvP and ZvZ groups. Of course, the protoss mirror has slowly rehabilitated its image over the past year, and it's now one of the most diverse matchups bar none.
Unfortunately, ZvZ is still mostly about roaches. After the first few minutes playing the "will he all in me" game of chicken, the game invariably ends up as a roach war with the third or fourth base as the point of contest. It becomes a race of upgrades for an opportunity to hit a good timing, and we do see a little bit of subtlety occasionally. Burrowed roach harass has always been one of the most exciting harassment options in ZvZ, and we've started to see more emphasis on using contamination to gain upgrade leads. While the masses of roach blobs rolling into each other is still rather unappealing, the matchup still requires a lot of skill that often goes unappreciated. In Group D, that skill will be put to the test with 3 zergs and a single terran.
That gives Happy a distinct advantage. With only one matchup to play and with the three zergs not being wildly different, Happy should be able to prepare well for the group. However, Happy doesn't really change his game plan, and plays TvZ by killing his opponent with pinpricks. The Russian has always played with a slow, methodical pace, and it doesn't seem to matter who he faces or what race they play. If you've ever seen him play a game of Starcraft, and if you've ever read a TL preview of his TvZ, there's a good chance that's how he's going to play tonight.
Although his TvZ has never made waves, he has been improving in 2015. He went 12-3 in TvZ in qualifiers, and his 63.84% winrate in the matchup is solid. His chances tonight will likely come down to execution and his opponents' ability to predict and play against his style. They should know that he isn't one to frequently all-in, and he isn't going to pile on heavy pressure unless given an opening. Happy's key to victory will be scouting greedy openings and potential all-ins, and it should matter little to the veteran who he has to face since he'll play the same way regardless.
His first opponent will be the affable PiG, who has finally made it to Premier League after seasons of struggle. Many fans had identified him as the SEA/AUS/NZ zerg to watch out for, but his great barrier KingKong, or others, had always stood in the way. Fortunately, PiG defeated his rival in a ZvZ in Challenger League, and it should fill him with confidence in a group with 2 other zergs. His 67.67% winrate in the mirror is the best of the lot, and his experiences in the SEA region should have hardened him to the trials of the notoriously fickle matchup. His home server is famous for having an abnormally large zerg population, and his recent success in it will be a boon for his chances to reach the Round of 16 on his first try.
In ZvT, PiG rarely deviates from the norm. According to iaguz, "He might make lings at some point," (actual quote when I asked him) and it's a fair representation of his median style. He's certainly competent playing standard ZvT, and recent wins against iaguz and Kelazhur by a combined 7-0 look promising.
The first assured ZvZ of the evening will be Kane vs TargA. With little variation in ZvZ and the difficulty of succeeding with a distinctive personal style (unless, of course, you're a rabid all inner), it is the one matchup where winrates and recent form provide the most information.
Kane is the weakest with a 58.03% winrate, and he has the least LAN experience of the 4 players. The ~10% gap between him and the other two zergs is alarming, and his best chance to advance from this group is to beat TargA in his first match in order to hopefully face Happy for advancement. He's been a beast online, defeating the likes of Ryung, Heart, MaSa, Spear, and iaguz, but that has always been the case with Kane. His Premier League debut is his best chance to dismiss the notion that he's only a great online player and weak at LANs and ascend to Canada's next great zerg.
TargA will not be an easy opponent to beat, however. The Norwegian has always excelled at ZvZ as his 66.92% winrate attests, and he is neither vulnerable in Bo1s nor Bo3s. While some consider him a "lesser Snute", TargA is better at midgame roach wars and he isn't as big a believer in the power of swarm hosts. He defeated Kas 3-1 in Challenger League with impeccable macro and good control of his muta-ling-bling, and though his 59.67% winrate in ZvT might not be elite, he has shown time and again that he takes wins when the matter the most. He might actually be the most in form player in this group at the moment, and the powerful zerg should contend in a deciding match.
Overall thoughts and predictions:
Happy's advantage should be enough to see him advance in first place, and he's by far the most successful player in WCS among the four players. That means there's going to be a ZvZ scrap for second place, and it's difficult to make an informed guess as to who will be the victor. Based on winrates, it looks like PiG and TargA are neck and neck for second place. It'll be a battle between TargA's form and PiG's rising confidence, and either zerg will make a worthy second placer.
Happy > PiG Kane < TargA Happy > TargA PiG > Kane TargA < PiG
PiG comes from the land of ZvZ, but the fact that he asked Kane to practice with him for his Challenger match says a lot about Kane's ZvZ capabilities. I think the two of them will be the decider to see who advances 2nd alongside Happy. I don't see Targa making a serious impact on the group.
On February 20 2015 22:23 hewo wrote: How can you not predict Targa in a ZZZT group? Are you nuts, lichter?
i don't like predicting the same as aligulac :[ if you had predicted not targa i would have predicted targa v_v
Well if you want your predictions to be yours, you should write them before you start looking up stats. If you use stats extensively to write the preview base your predictions on them, you might as well go all the way? :p
I understand you though, although "stats are always right™", some degree if subjective judgement is always nice and should be required. Stats can only say so much.
On February 20 2015 20:21 Circumstance wrote: PiG comes from the land of ZvZ, but the fact that he asked Kane to practice with him for his Challenger match says a lot about Kane's ZvZ capabilities. I think the two of them will be the decider to see who advances 2nd alongside Happy. I don't see Targa making a serious impact on the group.
Targa is tied 25-25 vs snute, are you saying you don't see snute beating kane and pig :D
EPT
Happy a distinct advantage. With only one matchup to play and with the three zergs not being wildly different, Happy should be able to prepare well for the group. However, Happy doesn't really change his game plan, and plays TvZ by killing his opponent with pinpricks. The Russian has always played with a slow, methodical pace, and it doesn't seem to matter who he faces or what race they play. If you've ever seen him play a game of Starcraft, and if you've ever read a TL preview of his TvZ, there's a good chance that's how he's going to play tonight.
PiG, who has finally made it to Premier League after seasons of struggle. Many fans had identified him as the SEA/AUS/NZ zerg to watch out for, but his great barrier KingKong, or others, had always stood in the way. Fortunately, PiG defeated his rival in a ZvZ in Challenger League, and it should fill him with confidence in a group with 2 other zergs. His 67.67% winrate in the mirror is the best of the lot, and his experiences in the SEA region should have hardened him to the trials of the notoriously fickle matchup. His home server is famous for having an abnormally large zerg population, and his recent success in it will be a boon for his chances to reach the Round of 16 on his first try. 
