Whenever groups are announced each round, one of our favorite things to do is too look at each group and search for patterns or themes within each. Sometimes, it's because it makes them more interesting, and sometimes it's because it is a natural narrative touchpoint. But, more often than not, it's simply an impulse by hobbyists trying to imbue more meaning into the game they follow with eagerness.
One of the most common group theme's is that of the group of death. The idea has been ground into the dirt by now, as it seems like any quartet of good players gets stamped with the fearsome seal. Yet the title should be reserved for groups where all 4 players have the potential for a playoff berth and have significant title credentials. While it's too soon to christen any set of four with that title, it's easy to see that Group C is by far the most stacked group in the Round of 32. Each player has a claim as a potential championship contender, and all 4 players have done or won something to prove it.
The most successful in recent memory is Liquid's Bunny. The Danish terran won Gfinity G3 out of nowhere putting his name on the map, and he was one win away from reaching the Ro4 in WCS EU Season 3. He matched his success with great games, and he has always played a brave brand of multitasking terran. He has been on a hot streak in 2015 so far, having gone 33-10 in maps and 17-3 in series. However, TvT remains his weakest matchup, and Bunny can sometimes be caught focusing his attention in the wrong places at the wrong times. The blink-and-you-die nature of TvT due to doom drops and tank lines has occasionally been his undoing, but so far he has yet to show the same weakness in his other two matchups. Bunny has become a popular figure due to his Polt-lite style in both TvZ and TvP, as he favors drops and harassment over straightforward pushes. It was on full display when he almost beat San (their game on Catallena was one of 2014's best) in WCS EU and when he dismantled PtitDrogo in Challenger League. Once the energizer terran gets warmed up, very few players can stop him.
Unlucky he must be that his first match of the evening must be a TvT against MajOr, a player who has beaten terran heavyweights before. Strangely, the Mexican terran has never made it past the Ro16 of WCS AM. He's always been one of the more impressive foreign terrans to watch, yet he's somehow always come agonizingly short on multiple occasions. In Season 2 of WCS, he lost 1-2 in a memorable clash with viOLet, and in Season 3 he was forced to forfeit his Ro16 group due to sickness. That all TvT group was his best shot at reaching the playoff stage of a premier tournament since IEM Sao Paulo, but fate was not on his side.
Things are looking up for him, as a diverse group works to his advantage. MajOr has no one weakness, and he can play bio just as well as mech as long as he's allowed to establish a strong economy. His predictability in playing slow, plodding games will give his opponents the chance to make a bold move early, and it'll be interesting to see if MajOr will deviate from playing macro games. It's what he does best, but successful players have often mixed in cheeses and specific build orders in tournaments, and it could be what's missing from the ROOT (or not? Honestly, I've lost track) player's arsenal.
Should he win his match against Bunny, we could have a rematch between him and viOLet. They played an unforgettable draw on Habitation Station in WCS AM Season 2, where MajOr's flying buildings could not be killed by the zerg's pitiful airforce. We could see a repeat of that interminable series tonight, but thankfully it can only happen once. The Surgeon Zerg frustrated MajOr with his capable roach hydra—a composition the Mexican famously hates—but he's not averse to playing swarmhost games against mech. That aligns with his playstyle against protoss; viOLet has always been one of the proponents of roach hydra, and he's one of the very best at pressuring third bases with a quick maxed army. He does have the tendency to overextend; feigning weakness to draw in an unfavorable attack is one of his trademark ways to lose. But when he's able to parlay that roach army into a swarmhost composition, be prepared to suffer.
In many ways, his fortunes mimic that of his first opponent MaNa. Both had very torrid late 2013s, when both players nosedived into irrelevance. VISA problems contributed to viOLet's, and flagging form and motivation hurt MaNa's results. Both players picked things up again in 2014 in conjunction with team changes, though MaNa has only reached the playoffs of a premier tournament once since then. The Pole's biggest win of last year was "Who's the Best European?", but WCS is no longer a continent specific competition.
Based on form alone, it looks like MaNa is fortunate that there are two terrans in Group C. He is 15-5 in his last 20 PvTs, defeating the likes of HeRoMaRinE, Happy, and DeMusliM. Yet he has to face a zerg first where he has perpetually struggled, and his form isn't any better at 9-11. Should he have something specific in store for viOLet, he could surprise everyone, but MaNa has staunchly played standard macro games even when his best chances lie elsewhere. But the stakes are higher now in WCS 2015, and he can't afford to stick to his guns when a knife in the back works better.
Overall thoughts and predictions:
Any combination of players could advance from this group, and it will likely be one of the best matchdays of the group stages. MajOr has the advantage of facing a player that has historically been poor in TvT first, and I feel like he'd be able to exact revenge from viOLet should they meet in the winners' match. However, should MaNa beat viOLet, I would favor him against MajOr. I'd also consider Bunny a good bet to beat either viOLet or MaNa... and this looks like a group where just about anything could happen.
Bunny < MajOr viOLet > MaNa MajOr > viOLet Bunny > MaNa viOLet < Bunny
Really tough group to call. Violet vs. Mana is close to 50/50 in my opinion and either of them can beat Major on a good day. But gogo Bunny :D (Danish bias)
What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
Meh, the only shame is that they could lose out on WCS points and money by playing in such a stacked group. But if your goal is to win the entire tournament (as it should be), then it's not such a bad thing. You'll have to beat these players eventually.
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
Meh, the only shame is that they could lose out on WCS points and money by playing in such a stacked group. But if your goal is to win the entire tournament (as it should be), then it's not such a bad thing. You'll have to beat these players eventually.
MaNa definitely has his eyes on the prize, I think he's going to go hulk-smash mode this group. But viOLet will still beat him
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
Meh, the only shame is that they could lose out on WCS points and money by playing in such a stacked group. But if your goal is to win the entire tournament (as it should be), then it's not such a bad thing. You'll have to beat these players eventually.
The only results that matters is being number one then? I think the players want results, and the other results (Top 8, Top 4 etc) matter too.
A good example was the code A season 1 group of death last year where Innovation didn't make it to code S, losing to Zest and herO. Sorry Innovation, because you lost to the champion, even at this early stage, you wouldn't win this season anyhow, might as well stay in code A then.
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
Meh, the only shame is that they could lose out on WCS points and money by playing in such a stacked group. But if your goal is to win the entire tournament (as it should be), then it's not such a bad thing. You'll have to beat these players eventually.
WCS points and money are pretty important too. Finishing in the RO8 also looks a lot better than finishing in the RO32 (and you must admit at least 3 of these players were favorites to make the RO8).
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
Meh, the only shame is that they could lose out on WCS points and money by playing in such a stacked group. But if your goal is to win the entire tournament (as it should be), then it's not such a bad thing. You'll have to beat these players eventually.
The only results that matters is being number one then? I think the players want results, and the other results (Top 8, Top 4 etc) matter too.
A good example was the code A season 1 group of death last year where Innovation didn't make it to code S, losing to Zest and herO. Sorry Innovation, because you lost to the champion, even at this early stage, you wouldn't win this season anyhow, might as well stay in code A then.
Of course it's not the only result that matters. But it's the only result you should have your eyes on (if you care about what you do, at least). Most players won't get there, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try.
Sure, it sucks to see someone like INnoVation lose so early, but do you think he got to where he is by taking the easy road? Win or lose, he gained valuable experience by playing against the best of the best in televised matches.
He didn't get the most prize money possible but to say that's all he got out of it is bogus. (Kappa)
On February 19 2015 22:00 Ketch wrote: What's Violets form nowadays? Normally he should be pegged as a favorite right? Though the three foreigners in this group are all capable of beating him as well...
Exciting!
He isn't in the best of forms. You're right if you say he is arguably the best player in the group, but not by much, and these 2 terrans know what they're doing vs zerg, so bad luck draw for violet i guess.
I know groups of death are exciting and that's why people including me like them, but i feel bad for the players. The 2 that don't advance would easily advance if they were in a normal "not group of death" group.
Meh, the only shame is that they could lose out on WCS points and money by playing in such a stacked group. But if your goal is to win the entire tournament (as it should be), then it's not such a bad thing. You'll have to beat these players eventually.
WCS points and money are pretty important too. Finishing in the RO8 also looks a lot better than finishing in the RO32 (and you must admit at least 3 of these players were favorites to make the RO8).
This isn't the last WCS tournament. This isn't the only tournament with prize money. There will be more.
Should the goal be "make as much money as possible *right now* in this one tournament," or should it be "I want to be as good as I can possibly be"?
There's no right or wrong answer, but I think there's a lot more money (not to mention respect) to be gained by choosing the latter.
Man I am so excited for this group!! Every single match is going to be crazy good. I do expect Bunny and MajOr to go through, but really it is so hard to predict, viOLet has beaten MajOr in the past though I do not expect him to take down Bunny. The way the matches Start is very interesting and may actually give viOLet a great shot at advancing if he beats MajOr in the winners match.
EPT
Bunny. The Danish terran won Gfinity G3 out of nowhere putting his name on the map, and he was one win away from reaching the Ro4 in WCS EU Season 3. He matched his success with great games, and he has always played a brave brand of multitasking terran. He has been on a hot streak in 2015 so far, having gone 33-10 in maps and 17-3 in series. However, TvT remains his weakest matchup, and Bunny can sometimes be caught focusing his attention in the wrong places at the wrong times. The blink-and-you-die nature of TvT due to doom drops and tank lines has occasionally been his undoing, but so far he has yet to show the same weakness in his other two matchups. Bunny has become a popular figure due to his Polt-lite style in both TvZ and TvP, as he favors drops and harassment over straightforward pushes. It was on full display when he almost beat San (their game on Catallena was one of 2014's best) in WCS EU and when he dismantled PtitDrogo in Challenger League. Once the energizer terran gets warmed up, very few players can stop him.
viOLet. They played an unforgettable draw on Habitation Station in WCS AM Season 2, where MajOr's flying buildings could not be killed by the zerg's pitiful airforce. We could see a repeat of that interminable series tonight, but thankfully it can only happen once. The Surgeon Zerg frustrated MajOr with his capable roach hydra—a composition the Mexican famously hates—but he's not averse to playing swarmhost games against mech. That aligns with his playstyle against protoss; viOLet has always been one of the proponents of roach hydra, and he's one of the very best at pressuring third bases with a quick maxed army. He does have the tendency to overextend; feigning weakness to draw in an unfavorable attack is one of his trademark ways to lose. But when he's able to parlay that roach army into a swarmhost composition, be prepared to suffer.
MaNa. Both had very torrid late 2013s, when both players nosedived into irrelevance. VISA problems contributed to viOLet's, and flagging form and motivation hurt MaNa's results. Both players picked things up again in 2014 in conjunction with team changes, though MaNa has only reached the playoffs of a premier tournament once since then. The Pole's biggest win of last year was "Who's the Best European?", but WCS is no longer a continent specific competition. 
