Bomber vs MMA

By: destructicon

Blizzcon's round of 8 kicks off on a high note with two of the world's premier TvT players. As veterans of the scene, Bomber and MMA both look to fulfill expectations that were placed on them three years ago but never fulfilled. This series in particular could be one of the most exciting given that how closely matched the players are and how similar they are to each other in the mirror. Both players have been around since the early days of SC2, both triumphed over Mvp in his prime, they are masters of straight up marine tank but aren't afraid to get their hands dirty with a little cheese.

TvT is often the most positional matchup, regularly compared to chess. In these circumstances the usual strengths of each player are lessened to a degree, as good positioning can deflect small harass or crush large attacks. However, this hasn't stopped Bomber or MMA playing TvT in their own way. Bomber molds his style to his macro, to that effect he will use early game aggression to make room for himself to get up to a quick 3 bases and then unleash his never ending rally. MMA uses his trademark multi-tasking to leverage favorable positions on the map and gain incremental advantages.

The early game is going to be crucial in this series and quite possibly be the most action packed of all the series in the RO8. Bomber will look to do damage early to gain enough of an economical advantage to get his macro going. MMA would be wise to take a more defensive route here, but shouldn't neglect scouting. Bomber recently has been using his predictability against his enemies by changing up his strategies. On the flip side Bomber himself shouldn't neglect the possibility of gas first banshees, which have served MMA faithfully since the early days of SC2.

If both opponents reach the mid game with relative stability, expect to see great marine tank play with twists from both sides. Bomber likes to stage frontal attacks or throw everything into doom drops, and while he doesn't always have the best marine trades his superb understanding of tank positioning and map posturing coupled with his never-ending reinforcement train, more than make up for this. MMA will look to do multi-pronged attacks and drops to pull Bomber out of position, gain incremental advantages via cost efficient trades or crush his tank lines if he wants to have a hope of surviving the onslaught.

While marine tank is each player's forte, they aren't afraid to mech it up every once in a while to keep their opponent honest, nor will they shy away from accepting bio vs mech battle. Traditionally in the Bio vs Mech matchup both players have taken the Bio stance, but played it very differently. MMA uses bio to outmaneuver his opponents and hit them where they are weakest while Bomber has played bio similar to a zerg, expanding all over the place and throwing endless tides of units at his opponent. I expect to see mech in at least once this series as a mind game to leverage a lead or increase it.

If somehow the game hasn't ended at the marine tank stage, then the action will get nuclear in the late game. Both players have shown extreme confidence in the super late game of the mirror match up, taking as many bases on the map and moving into the ultimate late game compositions of BCs and Ravens. And while not in the mirror, MMA has been known to use nuclear launches in the late game to sow chaos, both on the battlefield and in his opponent's head.

Overall this is a really hard series to call given how the play styles of Bomber and MMA line up and due to how experienced they are, both in the matchup and on big stages. I believe a lot will hinge on the early game: if Bomber can inflict enough damage to gain a lead then it will be very hard for MMA to crawl his way back. In the mid game it will all ride on Bomber's ability to take good positions on the map and do damage while MMA forces him out of position while probing for chinks in the armor. Ultimately, I'm going to give a slight lead to Bomber. He has very solid builds and isn't afraid to change it up, he can employ the cheese when necessary or play reactive, deflecting attacks and then launching his own. I believe this is what he needs to take the series despite a even mid and late game.

Prediction: Bomber 3 - 2 MMA

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Life vs San

by: Zealously

There are two kinds of matches in Starcraft. There are those purely mechanical in nature, hinging on macro- and micromanagement in combination with decision making. Those are the matches decided by facts, by what we can observe. They are Innovation vs DRG, Zest vs soO, Mvp vs Leenock. They are the matches when we can confidently say, once the dust has settled, that the winning player was the better player, that the end result was a product of skill and dedication, nothing else.

But there are also matches that are very different. They are the matches that we cannot quantify, where we cannot fully understand how a match could end so convincingly in favor of the player everyone predicted to lose unceremoniously. These are the matches that establish legends, that convince us that there is something to professional Starcraft beyond what we can simply observe. Battles of wills, displays of the ”X factor” that shifts momentum and topples giants. They are Mvp vs Squirtle, Dayshi vs ForGG and Life vs DRG. They are matches that we, even years later, fail to comprehend for the sheer volume of their absurdity. Comebacks that should not – could not – have happened, Shutouts that should have been prevented but weren't.

The players in the second category, more so than those in the first, establish legacies as timeless champions. They appear detached from the limits of their own skill, their performances unbound by the conventional laws of Starcraft. Mvp could not have beaten Rain, yet he did. He could not have won as he did when his back broke, and yet he was the one that lifted the trophy after the legendary 2rax that broke Squirtle's mind. Life was outmatched, beaten at every turn by a DRG that looked better than he had in many months. And yet as if someone had flipped a switch, he simply won. How does a player like Cloud lose 18 of his 22 series against Goody, despite being otherwise evenly matched or perhaps superior? It seems unrealistic but sometimes, conventional logic simply does not apply.

Life and San belong to that second category., their long-lasting rivalry standing testament to the fact that even when one player rises to the top of the world and stands above all others, he might still find that his own personal kryptonite will always remain his superior. This is true for Life perhaps more so than for any other player, the only true consistency in his career being his never ending streak of losses against San.



Their history together is one of violence, and San had never once been on the receiving end. It was only two weeks ago that he was made to bleed. Over the course of 31 months, across his GSL Royal Road and 6-month stint as ”best player in the world” and all the way into October of 2014, Life had never won even a single game against San. No one can refute the statement that San is a monster in PvZ, but never losing to a player of Life's caliber (until October 23rd, that is) is almost unheard of. The fact that Life's zerglings could never make as much happen against San as they do against others - or the fact that every curveball Life has ever attempted to throw at San has been effortlessly caught - says much about their upcoming match on Friday.

Whether it is San's deviation from the PvZ norm that has allowed him to always remain two steps ahead of Life or something else – a mental advantage stemming from their earliest practice days together on ZeNEX, perhaps – is impossible to say for certain. But for a very long time, San has retained a mastery of PvZ, and boasts a winrate greater than even Parting's in his prime. Instead of the Wonwonwon San has his Sangate, and instead of Parting's impeccable micro (mostly forcefields) San possesses a kind of stone-cold composure that lets him executes his plans to a tee even on the grandest of stages, overcoming trickery and counters by sticking to the plan he knows will work.

If Blizzcon had taken place two weekends ago, this series would have appeared fully in the favor of San beforehand. He has displayed his PvZ prowess enough times that he may as well be unbeatable, and he has never struggled against Life. But because things can never be simple, Life rebelled against expectations by first beating San 2-0 in the IEM San Jose qualifiers, then defeating Zest on the Global Finals stage. Instead of coming into this match as the enormous underdog, a frightened child once again facing his years-old nightmare, Life is now a reasonable bet to emerge victorious from this match.

This isn't a match-up where we can simply look at the numbers and say ”Oh, San is favored” or ”Oh, Life will probably win this – after all, he beat Zest”. This is a clash between two players whose history together is so consistently one-sided that a mere continuation of the pattern would be too simple. Life has now broken the rules by beating San, and built momentum by toppling this year's most successful player. One way or another, this match seems primed to serve us the most one-sided match of the round of 16. Either Life has found what he needed to overthrow his nemesis, or San will rebound and show the world why Life could never beat him.

Prediction: Life 3 - 0 San

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Classic vs herO

by: lichter

Few will admit it, but PvP has slowly changed our minds. From the days of 4gate or Die, the matchup has transformed into one of possibility and peril. Every tech path is now a legitimate option, and every weapon has a role. Though mind games and build orders still play large roles in how games play out, it has become a dimension rather than a definition of what was once the most maligned matchup in SC2.

Perhaps the most telling statistic in our growing appreciation is the fact that 11% of the most highly recommended games of the year so far are PvPs. While non-mirrors still dominate the list as expected, the protoss mirror is no longer resigned to being loved only by masochists and Olli. Who will ever forget the mothership dog fight between sOs and Classic on Maze, or the pinnacle of protoss in Zest vs Rain? As much as detractors deny it, the matchup has evolved the most in Heart of the Swarm, and the audience has taken notice. The elites of Aiur have elevated PvP into an art form and the stinkers only highlight just how much skill is required in mastering it. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your opinion), the two players contending what could be the most high profile PvP of the year are relative dunces in the matchup.

Saying that herO and Classic are nothing special in PvP is an understatement. Let's be honest here: compared to the likes of Zest, Rain, and even sOs, these two are staring at a clouded mirror each morning. It is both their worst matchups by a significant margin (-6% for herO, -4% for Classic), and many of their more high profile losses have been in PvP. herO must still sting after his $100,000 defeat in IEM WC, and Classic was knocked out of the KeSPA Cup against Rain. While both are undoubtedly strong players, a mastery of their own race continues to elude them.

It was fortuitous then that herO faced the equally handicapped MC in the Ro16 of Blizzcon. Though both players hover close to the 50% mark, it was a fantastic series that showcased some of what PvP has to offer. There was no singular flash of brilliance that made the audience erupt, but it was a mindful tactical battle that was decided in macro games. It was MC that elected to play risky as he attempted to hamper herO's economy in the early and mid games, but herO's conservative openings allowed him to remain safe. They traded blows through the 5 games, but herO eventually won the series not because of any clear superiority, but rather because he took fewer risks while mindfully neutralizing all of MC's gambits. MC had the upper hand in a few critical engagements, but his unit control and focus firing in late game skirmishes let him down. MC could have easily won the series had he prioritized targets more efficiently, as he often overkilled flanking zealots and frontline units instead of distributing excess damage accordingly. With a better economy on Catallena, for example, MC had all the tools to claim a win but herO's superior battle micro repeatedly allowed his expensive gas units to survive and hang on for longer than he should have.

It is this series that illuminates much of what we need to understand in this Ro8 matchup between herO and Classic. While the series was exciting, herO benefited from MC's lacking command of his army. This has been the story of herO's PvP all year: he is good enough to beat players like MC and other Koreans abroad, but nearly all of his PvP series against local Koreans have been losses. He occasionally shows the brilliance with which he navigates PvT, but they are few and far between. Even with the benefit of being one of the more well traveled KeSPA players, his wins against foreigners have not done enough to improve his numbers. This lack of consistency is alarming, as it has held him back from becoming one of the more important players of the year after a blistering start to 2014.

In the back of his mind, herO knows that if he defeats Classic, there's a good chance he'll only be playing PvT's in the semis and the finals. He must rely on his strengths—longer games that allow him to express his creativity, movement and use of blink stalkers—and survive the mid game if he wishes to make it that far. His early game decision making in all ins has always been suspect, and though he may mix in a few in a Bo5, it will be surprising if he relies on aggression in this series.

Classic's side of this matchup is similar in some ways, different in others. While his winrate isn't much better than herO's he does posses a slightly record against fellow Koreans. At the highest level of play, however, prevailing winrates mean very little compared to how their playstyles align. The former GSL champion plays a varied style of PvP, as he's just as likely to early expand, open aggressively, or 2gate in your natural. He does have a predilection for blink openings that facilitate his expansion; he normally gets blink after nexus on Nimbus, and blink before nexus on smaller maps. His penchant for blink could take advantage of herO's partiality for stargate tech because it allows him to defend and attack in equal measure. If Classic is able to figure out when herO is going stargate and employs his favored tech choice, he will be able to shut down harassment and hit a powerful timing that herO often succumbs to. Even if an attack fails, blink almost ensures the safety of his expansion. If herO has studied Classic's patterns in the matchups, he may decide to deviate from his one gate expand into oracle build and search for other viable openings.

This doesn't mean that Classic will play the entire series with initiative; in fact, Classic is just as likely to play passively and use his blink to secure his natural. He is just as comfortable playing a macro style like herO, and he's shown in the past that he knows what to do when the game goes late. With only a week to study each other and their teammates an ocean away, it's difficult to say whether we should expect prepared builds from either player. They have also only faced each other once in HotS all the way back in April, which resulted in a win for herO. With little time to plan, no familiarity and no general history of risk taking, this should not be a short Best of 5.

Regrettably, that's probably the only prediction that we can confidently make. Both players have displayed weakness in the matchup, and neither player has any clear advantage over the other. However, herO has played more high stakes mirrors lately. He defeated MC last week, and came close to winning WECG Korea by defeating Sora and narrowly losing to Stats. His losses against Rain and Zest in IEM San Jose Qualifiers and KeSPA Cup were not without their merits, and only the best can even take games from those two players. It's a small edge, but whispers from Korea all suggest that herO is the favorite in this match as well as BlizzCon overall. The series will hinge on his choice of map and build; will he stubbornly open with an oracle against Classic's love of blink, or will he play safe and try to drag things late?

One thing we know for sure though: if herO can win this series, he has a good shot of winning the tournament. His PvT is a thing of beauty, and his semi final will be against either MMA or Bomber. He could yet face Taeja or INnoVation in the finals, though Life and San may say something about that. With a 67% winrate in PvT and 74% in PvZ, he must first overcome his weakness before he can take advantage of his strengths.

Prediction: Classic 2 - 3 herO

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Taeja vs Innovation

by: CosmicSpiral

There are few crucibles Taeja has not passed through without emerging as a champion. He is the unparalleled dominator of team leagues, most famously strutting his way through IPL TAC on the faces of IM and Prime. In individual tournaments his indefatigable aura has been a more intermittent factor. Like the seasons Taeja has his dry spells and his monsoons, except his worst periods are coveted by 95% of the player base. Of course, it’s during the hot months when he most resembles a force of nature: in total, the summers of Taeja have produced 8 premier victories and 15 top 4 placements in 3 years.

Yet even his supreme periods are marked by an asterisk. Imagine how his career would be preserved and construed if everything stopped at this moment. The records would present Taeja as the most successful pilferer of foreign tournaments in the SC2 era. The list of opponents he vanquished could compete with any legend. He would undoubtedly be named one of the greatest terrans to ever exist. But could you really argue he was the greatest? Alas, 11 gold trophies aren’t conclusive evidence in a world where each win’s worth is relative. So far Taeja’s journey has conspicuously missed out on the triumphs that raise players to the pantheon of pantheons. Most of those medals come from flybys, dropping into Stockholm or Krefeld for a fun-filled weekend. Taeja’s record in structured, scheme-based tournaments hasn’t been so hot by comparison. His 2-year GSL stint produced many memories and thrills…and a mere 2 semifinals. The move to WCS America assured us he would earn that elusive prize; being an expert at plundering foreign lands, surely this would be a piece of cake. Natch, more semifinals. Motivated by a stronger sweet tooth and better composure, Polt and Bomber displaced Taeja as the foremost Korean threats in the NA region.

TaeJa’s chiaroscuro career is unsatisfying for such a widely acclaimed player, especially since his time in SC2 is drawing to a close. He can certainly look back on his time with pride. Few players have defined the term “first among equals” so clearly; despite his ungainly and curt personality, he is one of the most memorable names of this era. All that praise doesn’t detract from the fact TaeJa still has things to accomplish. There’s still a monkey on his back and it’s loudly hollering. If there’s any carrot that can still make him chase, it’s the lure of a Blizzcon championship.

Overcoming SKT.INnoVation won’t be as easy as dealing with his teammate. Unlike soO, the SKT terran has all the confidence in the world behind him. By winning GSL he finally redeemed himself for that disastrous collapse against Soulkey, reestablished himself as a leading name in the Terran hierarchy, and entered Blizzcon with some serious momentum. For INnoVation there’s no latent fear behind the thought of victory. He failed once because his old arrogance made him inflexible, unable to deal with a blatantly obvious ploy. Watching his games against soO in the GSL finals, you get the sense of a changed man. Despite crumbling twice to roach all-ins, he made a choice the old INnoVation would have obstinately dismissed: he took that information and made a new plan. Building tanks on King Sejong Station, INnoVation deflected soO’s third attempt and consequently shifted the thrust of the whole series.

Make no mistake though. His newfound championship doesn’t signal a complete transformation. In certain respects INnoVation has acclimated to the times, but only as far as he needs to become a perennial contender. He remains the greediest of safe players, willingly to open 3CC against any race that gives him the room and the time. He still randomly loses to protoss players at the most inconvenient times, covering the entire spectrum of skill in the process. Besides some well-timed usage of proxy 2 rax, he dislikes using all-ins as an ace card. He is self-admittedly weak in the realm of psychological warfare, a flaw that has cost him some important series throughout his career. INnoVation’s ability to win is tied to maintaining a certain pace and calmness in his tournament progress, and that quirk will probably stay that way until he hangs up his mouse.

As we have seen in the past, INnoVation and TaeJa use distinct styles to enter the lategame. The Artist Formerly Known as Bogus generally opts for mech while TaeJa elects for marine/tank. However, these blanket statements have been violated with some frequency heading into the event. The king of hellbats has recently chosen marine/tank builds in certain situations; TaeJa is ready to play any style if he establishes an early economic lead. TaeJa may be vulnerable to early aggression in this matchup, like he showed us in the finals of Red Bull Detroit, but such tactics aren’t conductive to INno’s gameplan. Instead the SKT terran throws all his mental resources into early-game scouting and defense, waiting to build up his force for a timing attack (either a deliberate push or a critical mass of units). This gives TaeJa some leeway for early greed, aggression, or anything in-between.

The hard part will be fighting the mech army once it comes online. INnoVation’s approach is classic TvT mech: ponderous, deliberate, suffocating. He’s not the wild octopus GuMiho can be, trading crazy potential for sturdiness. This paradigm serves as a good foil to TaeJa’s attrition warfare. Rarely does TaeJa win via a grand, sweeping move; he is the master of incremental victories, small pokes, and slowly accumulating advantages. This approach works well against bio/tank armies, which depend on both small gains and decisive moves, but can fall flat versus the superior firepower of a concentrated mech ball. Similarly INnoVation will be hard-pressed to break TaeJa if he goes for the NR15 opening. That cedes all initiative to his opponent, who has masterful control and awe-inspiring game sense on his side. TaeJa’s bio and bio/tank builds will give him the tools to establish map control, constrict INno’s positioning, and expand relentlessly.

Such analysis suggests this series will be decided by the central question posted earlier: will INnoVation do nothing in the early game, and how will TaeJa respond to that choice? In an environment fraught with stress on preparation and knowing the opponent, the easiest path to victory could be the George Constanza ethos. INnoVation could be contemplating such a course right now. He could ignore his instincts and training, fully aware TaeJa expects him to follow those to the bitter end, in order to throw his opponent for a loop. Recently he's showing more willingness to break his old taboos and it's possible he will want to throw a wrench into the works at some point. Conversely TaeJa might want to hit his opponent when he’s weakest instead of engaging in long, drawn-out games. INno will anticipate TaeJa falling back on what he does best, which sets up scenarios where the game must be won by skill; BO wins would be more convenient and damaging to the SKT terran’s mindset.

Getting down to brass tacks, I believe INnoVation is more willing to deviate from his old ways than TaeJa. Winning GSL gives the (usually) uptight terran some leeway in his approach to the match; winning Blizzcon would be nice but not the highlight of his year, so he can afford to delve in some experimentation. Meanwhile TaeJa is in an odd place that might sap his motivation. He’s not desperate enough to focus all his attention on INnoVation like Life did against Zest, and he’s not certain enough in victory to play normal in all his games. Expect some shakeups if TaeJa falls behind in the series, but by then it might be too late to reverse his fortunes.

Prediction: TaeJa 2 - 3 INnoVation

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