EPTRo16: Group D Preview
LiveZerg, 
StarDust, San, NerchioCountdown:
by Darkhorse
In the final installment of this season's Ro16, foreigner Zergs will clash with some high powered Korean Protoss to determine the final two players for this season's Ro8. This group features yoe Flash Wolves San, the surprising underdog LiveZerg, the likable and aggressive Korean-turned-European Stardust, and the Polish veteran Nerchio.
The Russian player
LiveZerg shocked everyone with his first place advancement in Group G of the Ro32. Placed into a group with three Terrans with excellent TvZ (MMA, ForGG, and Dayshi) LiveZerg looked almost certain to fall out of Premier and back into the sudden death Challenger League matches. However, LiveZerg had something else in mind as he defeated MMA and ForGG back to back to earn himself a spot in the Ro16. To win a group with players of that caliber is impressive, and is certainly a big step for the Russian player's career. This group, however, will be something different altogether.Unfortunately for LiveZerg, he won't be able to rely on his ZvT to get through this group. In fact, LiveZerg hasn't played a player who isn't Terran this entire season of WCS. He defeated Morrow in Challenger to advance to Premier, and there he played both MMA and ForGG. Defeating his first opponent in the group, the ever aggressive Protoss player StarDust, would be a tall order for even the finest of European Zergs, and I don't think that LiveZerg has shown the ZvP prowess to do it. Beyond StarDust, LiveZerg may be able to take down fellow European Zerg Nerchio based on their neck and neck lifetime record (14-13 in games, 5-6 in matches), but the other Protoss player in the group, San, has possibly the most feared PvZ in WCS Europe. Overall, LiveZerg has an uphill battle to climb in this group, but he has shown us once before that he can pull off huge upsets, and he will have to do so again to get out of this group.
LiveZerg's first opponent is the cheery Protoss
mYi.StarDust, who has been a fairly consistent force in European tournaments even beyond WCS since coming to live in Europe last year. Last season's run was solid for StarDust, but he was stopped in the Quarterfinals by the eventual Champion MC, and he will be looking to build on that performance and make a run for the top 4. This season got off to a so-so start for StarDust, as his Ro32 group proved to be somewhat of a challenge. A 2-0 loss to First in the winner's match had him on the brink of elimination, but he managed to pull through and defeat BabyKnight 2-0 in the final match to advance to the Ro16. Recently, we've mostly seen StarDust's non-WCS play in the Acer Teamstory Cup. Although Jjakji firmly took over the position of mYinsanity's ace player, StarDust had a solid but not spectacular 9-7 record as his team just barely missed the playoffs due to map score. At the fairly recent Dreamhack Bucharest, StarDust once again had a good showing (as he generally does at Dreamhack) making top 8 before losing to the eventual champion, Life.
In terms of this group, StarDust should be considered one of the favorites to make it out. This group will test StarDust in the same two matchups that he faced in the Ro32, so he should be able to just keep up the same practice that he had been doing before. While LiveZerg is no pushover, StarDust should be considered a significant favorite to win his opening match. San will be a challenge for StarDust, and he may also have to face his ladder rival Nerchio depending on how the group plays out. StarDust has been good but not great in the European scene ever since his stunning Dreamhack Summer win last year, but a good run this season could cement his place as one of the elite players in the region.
yfw.San is the third player in the group, and he is coming off an incredible Season 1 with eyes on the Championship. As surprising as this sounds, San didn't make a single Premier League in 2013, having played in Korea in Season 1 and then Europe in Season's 2 and 3. However, he made his first Premier appearance count last season with a top 4 finish, narrowly being denied a spot in the finals by MMA 3-2. Had he defeated MMA, there was a good chance that I would be talking about the WCS EU Season 1 Champion right now, as he had already defeated MC soundly earlier in the tournament. However, it was not to be, and San will have to earn his way back to the final four this year if he wants to make up for this disappointment in Season 1.San was another player who was constantly present in the Acer Teamstory Cup, managing to score an impressive 16-9 overall record. However, he did lose twice to the Mousesports Zerg Starbuck in the final week of competition, which may have denied his team a chance to play in the playoffs. That is certainly a blemish on San's PvZ record, and it should not be overlooked, but it also shouldn't carry an overly high amount of weight. San took care of business as expected in the Ro32, losing maps to both uThermal and ToD but still advancing in first place. San's first opponent is Nerchio, and San will most likely be eager to take his normally monstrous PvZ out for a spin. San is most likely the overall favorite in the group, and should be considered one of the potential favorites to take the entire tournament.
This has been a season of Foreign hopes doing fairly well in WCS Europe, and if you wanted to pin the "Foreigner Hope" tag on someone in this group it would have to be
Acer.Nerchio. Nerchio had a decent Season 1, making the Ro16 before being knocked out by eventual Champion MC twice in group play. This season, Nerchio managed to get through his Ro32 group despite an opening match loss to Stephano, managing to defeat both Demuslim and Stephano back to back to secure second place in the group. His ZvZ looked so-so in his matches against the French superstar, but the most important matchup for Nerchio here will be his ZvP. While Nerchio has always been one of the top Zergs in Europe, these days he is generally left out of the conversation, as he has been outshone by fellow European Zergs Snute and Vortix. Getting to his second quarterfinals of WCS Europe may help to prove that he deserves to be considered one of the best alongside them.This will no doubt be a difficult group for Nerchio, but there is no denying that he has a shot at making the Ro8 here. Sure, his opening match against San will be tough, as San's PvZ is in the running for best in the world, but Nerchio could advance even if he should lose that match. A ZvZ against LiveZerg will be close, but on paper Nerchio is still the favorite in that confrontation, and I can see a matchup of Nerchio vs StarDust going either way. Incidentally, Nerchio and Stardust have played a number of times over the past year and a half in tournaments, and Nerchio holds a slight winning record of 16-15 in maps and 6-5 in matches. If Nerchio plays up to his potential and gets a few lucky breaks, we could be seeing the second foreigner Zerg in the Ro8 advancing from this group.
Overall Thoughts and Predictions:
San should be the favorite to take first place here, and is my Darkhorse (Editor's Note: this made me cringe) pick to win the entire season. Unfortunately for LiveZerg I don't see him getting out of this group, although he has secured himself a spot in next season's Premier League already. Nerchio vs StarDust could go either way in the deciding match, so I flipped a coin and got Nerchio. Because WCS AM and EU are now playing the loser's match before winner's, I will adjust my prediction order accordingly.
LiveZerg < StarDust
San > Nerchio
LiveZerg < Nerchio
StarDust < San
Nerchio > StarDust
San and Nerchio advance.
