I am rooting for -
(Z)Dark vs. (T)TaeJa - Taeja
(T)Sparta vs. (T)Fantasy - Fantasy
(P)JYP vs. (T)Noblesse - JYP
(P)JangBi vs. (Z)Shine - JangBi
(T)MaruPrime vs. (Z)LosirA - LosirA
(Z)Jaedong vs. (Z)Sirius - Jaedong
(Z)BBoongBBoong vs. (T)jjakji - jjakji
(P)Rain vs. (P)DreAm - Rain
(T)Heart vs. (Z)NesTea - NesTea
(T)ByuN vs. (P)Terminator - Byun
(T)aLive vs. (P)Flying - aLive
(P)Squirtle vs. (Z)Miya - Squirtle
(P)Mini vs. (P)YongHwa - YongHwa
(T)Flash vs. (P)Brave - Flash
(T)MMA vs. (Z)ByuL - MMA

ArcticRaven

France1406 Posts

November 13 2012 17:36 GMT

#208

Center 2-0 Seed
Jjakji, having dumped his curse on Seed, rolls through his bracket.

Only 2 NSH players throughout GSL TT

Marou

Germany1371 Posts

November 13 2012 17:56 GMT

#209

So many good player on the verge of going to Code B. GSL is so insanely high level T_T

Advantageous

China1350 Posts

November 13 2012 19:16 GMT

#210

:O LosirA is back!

andiCR

Costa Rica2273 Posts

November 13 2012 19:34 GMT

#211

Ugh.. cant wait!! Rooting for Flash, THE DONG, Fantasy and my man, the pvz beast [gosi]Flying

Ethoex

United States164 Posts

November 13 2012 19:51 GMT

#212

so many good names in code A

Pasargadae

Korea (South)173 Posts

November 13 2012 20:05 GMT

#213

On November 13 2012 00:11 TheBB wrote:

Show nested quote +

On November 13 2012 00:06 ragz_gt wrote:

On November 13 2012 00:01 TheBB wrote:
Well, for what it's worth, here you are.

Dark, Hyvaa, Sin, Center, Brave and Brain don't have ratings yet, so those matches are not included.

Most even: Jangbi vs Shine. Biggest favourite: Squirtle.
+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler [JYP vs. Noblesse] +

JYP vs. Noblesse

JYP wins (57.12%):
      2-0: 29.99%
      2-1: 27.13%

Noblesse wins (42.88%):
      2-0: 20.46%
      2-1: 22.41%

Most likely winner: JYP (57.12%)
Most likely outcome: JYP 2-0 Noblesse (29.99%)

+ Show Spoiler [San vs. IMHappy] +

San vs. IMHappy

San wins (59.50%):
      2-0: 31.77%
      2-1: 27.73%

IMHappy wins (40.50%):
      2-0: 19.04%
      2-1: 21.46%

Most likely winner: San (59.50%)
Most likely outcome: San 2-0 IMHappy (31.77%)

+ Show Spoiler [Sparta vs. Fantasy] +

Sparta vs. Fantasy

Sparta wins (21.10%):
      2-0: 8.76%
      2-1: 12.34%

Fantasy wins (78.90%):
      2-0: 49.56%
      2-1: 29.34%

Most likely winner: Fantasy (78.90%)
Most likely outcome: Sparta 0-2 Fantasy (49.56%)

+ Show Spoiler [Maru vs. LosirA] +

Maru vs. LosirA

Maru wins (36.09%):
      2-0: 16.50%
      2-1: 19.59%

LosirA wins (63.91%):
      2-0: 35.27%
      2-1: 28.65%

Most likely winner: LosirA (63.91%)
Most likely outcome: Maru 0-2 LosirA (35.27%)

+ Show Spoiler [Sirius vs. Jaedong] +

Sirius vs. Jaedong

Sirius wins (45.65%):
      2-0: 22.18%
      2-1: 23.47%

Jaedong wins (54.35%):
      2-0: 27.99%
      2-1: 26.36%

Most likely winner: Jaedong (54.35%)
Most likely outcome: Sirius 0-2 Jaedong (27.99%)

+ Show Spoiler [BBoongBBoong vs. jjakji] +

BBoongBBoong vs. jjakji

BBoongBBoong wins (38.88%):
      2-0: 18.09%
      2-1: 20.79%

jjakji wins (61.12%):
      2-0: 33.03%
      2-1: 28.09%

Most likely winner: jjakji (61.12%)
Most likely outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 jjakji (33.03%)

+ Show Spoiler [Dream vs. Rain] +

Dream vs. Rain

Dream wins (24.29%):
      2-0: 10.30%
      2-1: 13.99%

Rain wins (75.71%):
      2-0: 46.11%
      2-1: 29.60%

Most likely winner: Rain (75.71%)
Most likely outcome: Dream 0-2 Rain (46.11%)

+ Show Spoiler [SuperNova vs. First] +

SuperNova vs. First

SuperNova wins (60.83%):
      2-0: 32.80%
      2-1: 28.03%

First wins (39.17%):
      2-0: 18.26%
      2-1: 20.91%

Most likely winner: SuperNova (60.83%)
Most likely outcome: SuperNova 2-0 First (32.80%)

+ Show Spoiler [Bomber vs. ClassicPrime] +

Bomber vs. ClassicPrime

Bomber wins (69.42%):
      2-0: 40.02%
      2-1: 29.41%

ClassicPrime wins (30.58%):
      2-0: 13.50%
      2-1: 17.08%

Most likely winner: Bomber (69.42%)
Most likely outcome: Bomber 2-0 ClassicPrime (40.02%)

+ Show Spoiler [Bbyong vs. TAiLS] +

Bbyong vs. TAiLS

Bbyong wins (33.96%):
      2-0: 15.32%
      2-1: 18.65%

TAiLS wins (66.04%):
      2-0: 37.04%
      2-1: 28.99%

Most likely winner: TAiLS (66.04%)
Most likely outcome: Bbyong 0-2 TAiLS (37.04%)

+ Show Spoiler [Heart vs. NesTea] +

Heart vs. NesTea

Heart wins (54.22%):
      2-0: 27.90%
      2-1: 26.32%

NesTea wins (45.78%):
      2-0: 22.26%
      2-1: 23.52%

Most likely winner: Heart (54.22%)
Most likely outcome: Heart 2-0 NesTea (27.90%)

+ Show Spoiler [ByuN vs. Sang] +

ByuN vs. Sang

ByuN wins (71.69%):
      2-0: 42.12%
      2-1: 29.57%

Sang wins (28.31%):
      2-0: 12.32%
      2-1: 15.99%

Most likely winner: ByuN (71.69%)
Most likely outcome: ByuN 2-0 Sang (42.12%)

+ Show Spoiler [aLive vs. Flying] +

aLive vs. Flying

aLive wins (59.13%):
      2-0: 31.49%
      2-1: 27.64%

Flying wins (40.87%):
      2-0: 19.26%
      2-1: 21.61%

Most likely winner: aLive (59.13%)
Most likely outcome: aLive 2-0 Flying (31.49%)

+ Show Spoiler [ShinefOu vs. JangBi] +

ShinefOu vs. JangBi

ShinefOu wins (49.20%):
      2-0: 24.47%
      2-1: 24.73%

JangBi wins (50.80%):
      2-0: 25.54%
      2-1: 25.26%

Most likely winner: JangBi (50.80%)
Most likely outcome: ShinefOu 0-2 JangBi (25.54%)

+ Show Spoiler [Squirtle vs. Miya] +

Squirtle vs. Miya

Squirtle wins (83.00%):
      2-0: 54.46%
      2-1: 28.54%

Miya wins (17.00%):
      2-0: 6.86%
      2-1: 10.13%

Most likely winner: Squirtle (83.00%)
Most likely outcome: Squirtle 2-0 Miya (54.46%)

+ Show Spoiler [Mini vs. YongHwa] +

Mini vs. YongHwa

Mini wins (19.06%):
      2-0: 7.81%
      2-1: 11.25%

YongHwa wins (80.94%):
      2-0: 51.93%
      2-1: 29.02%

Most likely winner: YongHwa (80.94%)
Most likely outcome: Mini 0-2 YongHwa (51.93%)

+ Show Spoiler [MMA vs. ByuL] +

MMA vs. ByuL

MMA wins (67.72%):
      2-0: 38.50%
      2-1: 29.22%

ByuL wins (32.28%):
      2-0: 14.40%
      2-1: 17.87%

Most likely winner: MMA (67.72%)
Most likely outcome: MMA 2-0 ByuL (38.50%)

+ Show Spoiler [Trap vs. asd] +

Trap vs. asd

Trap wins (69.31%):
      2-0: 39.92%
      2-1: 29.39%

asd wins (30.69%):
      2-0: 13.56%
      2-1: 17.13%

Most likely winner: Trap (69.31%)
Most likely outcome: Trap 2-0 asd (39.92%)

All your most likely outcome are 2-0... not sure if make sense

Actually, under the model I'm using, it's always the case that a 2-0 is more likely than a 2-1. Suppose the best player has probability p to win any single game, and the other guy has probability 1-p. Then

p > 0.5
1-p < 0.5

Now, the probability of a 2-0 for the best player is p^2, and the probability of a 2-1 is 2(1-p)p^2 = 2(1-p) times the probability of a 2-0.

This factor 2(1-p) is always less than 1 (since 1-p < 0.5), so the probability of 2-1 is always smaller.

Your conclusion may be correct, but the math is faulty. You're assuming the probabilities are independent, which they are not. Good work either way though ^^