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On August 15 2012 08:48 whacks wrote:
Skeldark, when WOW first introduced battlegrounds (yes, ~7 years ago), Horde was winning these battlegrounds significantly more across all servers. But this wasn't because the game mechanics favored Horde in any way. It just so happened that "hardcore" players were significantly more likely to pick Horde and "casuals" more likely to pick Alliance. It's definitely very possible that the same could be happening in SC2; one race might be more likely to draw in players of weaker skill level. This would cause the average MMR of that race to be lower, even though it's actually balanced.
Some data I would LOVE to see: average win rates for Random players, broken down by race. Eg: What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Terran? What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Zerg?
If one race draw weaker players the race is obvious weaker than the others!
So the game is imbalanced. In this case, blizzard would try to buff this race to make the game balanced again.
Please read the post on this page. we just discussed this topic.
To the causal argument: First dataset show master player only.
Just edited the op:
This is the diffrence to the average MMR, of my Ladder-Data, per Race. Not more not Less.
You can not see on any statistic game-data, if the reason is game design or social aspects.
Not you, not me, not blizzard, not a single game designer!
So we have the choice of paying for a global sociology study to find it out (if you can call it this way in sociology ^^)
or just ASSUME it comes from game design like every game company does.
To your random data:
There are only few random players and this would be a lot of work only to find out witch race is the favourite of most random players.
I hope you dont think that favourite of randoms prove: strongest race for everyone because of game design.
You started with social reasons. I think this example show them perfect.
Random players play the game total different than all others.
My first runs with random come to the result, that random players have a -100 - -200 lower mmr than all other races.
They are the race that draw the player with less skill or it is a way harder to play different races.
They start with an automatic advantage in sc2 and have no in-game disadvantages because of race-matchups.
( they would equal out in few games) So in this special case, it is even proven the Avg-MMR-diffrence must come from an social reason.
PS:
Sorry, this part is even for me hard to read.
But i dont know how to explain it different with my limited english.
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On August 15 2012 08:48 whacks wrote:
Skeldark, when WOW first introduced battlegrounds (yes, ~7 years ago), Horde was winning these battlegrounds significantly more across all servers. But this wasn't because the game mechanics favored Horde in any way. It just so happened that "hardcore" players were significantly more likely to pick Horde and "casuals" more likely to pick Alliance. It's definitely very possible that the same could be happening in SC2; one race might be more likely to draw in players of weaker skill level. This would cause the average MMR of that race to be lower, even though it's actually balanced.
Some data I would LOVE to see: average win rates for Random players, broken down by race. Eg: What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Terran? What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Zerg?
The data is more biased towards higher skill levels, ie. not "casuals". Please read the original post and stop posting the first thing that comes to your mind.
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On August 15 2012 11:42 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 08:48 whacks wrote:
Skeldark, when WOW first introduced battlegrounds (yes, ~7 years ago), Horde was winning these battlegrounds significantly more across all servers. But this wasn't because the game mechanics favored Horde in any way. It just so happened that "hardcore" players were significantly more likely to pick Horde and "casuals" more likely to pick Alliance. It's definitely very possible that the same could be happening in SC2; one race might be more likely to draw in players of weaker skill level. This would cause the average MMR of that race to be lower, even though it's actually balanced.
Some data I would LOVE to see: average win rates for Random players, broken down by race. Eg: What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Terran? What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Zerg? The data is more biased towards higher skill levels, ie. not "casuals". Please read the original post and stop posting the first thing that comes to your mind.
You do realize that skeldark is the OP right? He made this algorithm and made the entire calculation. I think he knows a bit more than u do....
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On August 15 2012 11:47 CaptainCrush wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 11:42 plogamer wrote:On August 15 2012 08:48 whacks wrote:
Skeldark, when WOW first introduced battlegrounds (yes, ~7 years ago), Horde was winning these battlegrounds significantly more across all servers. But this wasn't because the game mechanics favored Horde in any way. It just so happened that "hardcore" players were significantly more likely to pick Horde and "casuals" more likely to pick Alliance. It's definitely very possible that the same could be happening in SC2; one race might be more likely to draw in players of weaker skill level. This would cause the average MMR of that race to be lower, even though it's actually balanced.
Some data I would LOVE to see: average win rates for Random players, broken down by race. Eg: What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Terran? What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Zerg? The data is more biased towards higher skill levels, ie. not "casuals". Please read the original post and stop posting the first thing that comes to your mind. You do realize that skeldark is the OP right? He made this algorithm and made the entire calculation. I think he knows a bit more than u do....
He quoted whacks not me. I think he posted while i wrote my answer and did not see it.
@plogamer if you answer to everyone that dont read the full op like this, you have a lot to do on this website 
@CaptainCrush
Just to clear this.
I did not do the algorithm alone. The dmmr calculation and the tier offsets comes form Not_That.
I did the tier analyser ( the algorithm that try to find out in what tier a player is) and the software-program.
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On August 15 2012 11:42 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 08:48 whacks wrote:
Skeldark, when WOW first introduced battlegrounds (yes, ~7 years ago), Horde was winning these battlegrounds significantly more across all servers. But this wasn't because the game mechanics favored Horde in any way. It just so happened that "hardcore" players were significantly more likely to pick Horde and "casuals" more likely to pick Alliance. It's definitely very possible that the same could be happening in SC2; one race might be more likely to draw in players of weaker skill level. This would cause the average MMR of that race to be lower, even though it's actually balanced.
Some data I would LOVE to see: average win rates for Random players, broken down by race. Eg: What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Terran? What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Zerg? The data is more biased towards higher skill levels, ie. not "casuals". Please read the original post and stop posting the first thing that comes to your mind.
Easy on the nerd rage there 
What you and skeldark don't seem to be getting is that there is a self selection bias in your analysis. This self selection bias could introduce a systematic error that is prevalent at all levels of the game and cannot be eliminated by averaging large sample sizes. In the wow example that I gave, I was referring to those who hit level 60 within a few months... They spent hours playing the game everyday. And yet, even within them, the higher skilled players had a bias towards one race. This had nothing to do with design imbalance since the two races were almost exactly identical.
This is why any serious study in peer reviewed journals avoid self-selection bias where at all possible. The best way to do this for SC2, would be to look at data gathered by random-race players only.
Anyway, I've said my peace. If you decide to crunch the random-race data, that would be great. If not, thanks for what you've put together so far.
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On August 16 2012 01:45 whacks wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 11:42 plogamer wrote:On August 15 2012 08:48 whacks wrote:
Skeldark, when WOW first introduced battlegrounds (yes, ~7 years ago), Horde was winning these battlegrounds significantly more across all servers. But this wasn't because the game mechanics favored Horde in any way. It just so happened that "hardcore" players were significantly more likely to pick Horde and "casuals" more likely to pick Alliance. It's definitely very possible that the same could be happening in SC2; one race might be more likely to draw in players of weaker skill level. This would cause the average MMR of that race to be lower, even though it's actually balanced.
Some data I would LOVE to see: average win rates for Random players, broken down by race. Eg: What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Terran? What is the win percentage for random players when they spawn as Zerg? The data is more biased towards higher skill levels, ie. not "casuals". Please read the original post and stop posting the first thing that comes to your mind. Easy on the nerd rage there What you and skeldark don't seem to be getting is that there is a self selection bias in your analysis. This self selection bias could introduce a systematic error that is prevalent at all levels of the game and cannot be eliminated by averaging large sample sizes. In the wow example that I gave, I was referring to those who hit level 60 within a few months... They spent hours playing the game everyday. And yet, even within them, the higher skilled players had a bias towards one race. This had nothing to do with design imbalance since the two races were almost exactly identical. This is why any serious study in peer reviewed journals avoid self-selection bias where at all possible. The best way to do this for SC2, would be to look at data gathered by random-race players only. Anyway, I've said my peace. If you decide to crunch the random-race data, that would be great. If not, thanks for what you've put together so far.
You miss the point. My argument had nothing to do plogamer sentence.
Social aspects are a total different point than data-biased. If you call the data biased because of the possible existent of social aspects than every data in this world is biased.
Please reads my answer-post again.
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I play all three races at Diamond level, and this corresponds with my own personal experiences. Playing Terran is like hard mode for Starcraft 2. ZvT is mind numbing-ly easy, you just don't make a huge mistake, get to late game, you just a move and win. You don't attack, not much micro, no scouting needed.
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I don't understand why this doesn't get more attention. Am I interpreting the numbers wrongly or does terran show a MAJOR defficit in MMR?
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skel can you make a graph on winrates based on mmr? so that we can see which race wins on what skill level
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On August 26 2012 01:49 elanobissen wrote:
I don't understand why this doesn't get more attention. Am I interpreting the numbers wrongly or does terran show a MAJOR defficit in MMR?
I think the fact that it's within ~50 MMR, out of 2000 plus, it's not that big a deal. Unless i'm also grossly misunderstanding the data.
From what i'm understanding (and correct me if i'm wrong), T loses an average of 1-3 more games a season than the others?
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Yeah, Skeldark found a good objective method to prove that Terrans on the whole have lesser MMR.
It is funny that only posters with some kind of stipulations of his methods are those with Zerg icons.
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omg....U cant say that terran is doing terrible in tvz and so on lately when terrans have been getting the best results lately they have been winning all the more recent tournaments besides the recent na regional terrans have won. Mlg summer arena 1, Asus rog summer, Campus EU. IEM, ESV grandfinals and just overall good results and people say how tvz zerg is so imba when terrans have been doing just fine against zerg and I feel if u really are losing every game against zerg with terran u don't know how to play your race when there are terrans like taeja with a 82% win rate in tvz. and as Sheth says u cant say your race is so bad when its doing really good.
and being a zerg player I have noticed that when I play against terran a terran player will do some of the stupidest stuff ever and then they will lose because of it and its stupid because after they will talk about balance like they lost all because they chose to play terran no you were just the dumbest player in the game so just think as ur looking through these comments there are terrans out there that do stupid stuff and then complain about balance just because they can
and another thing I remember a time where terrans complained about protoss ALOT and how tvp protoss is op blah blah blah. AND then zerg got a buff to help deal with helions so they got a queen buff and the whloe point of this buff was to kind of help when 4 helions come to your nat so they don't slip into your main because after that happens its pretty much gg.
and then after the buff no changes were made for terran or protoss but yet terrans just moved on and started complaining about zerg. and now Terran are doing really well against protoss and so on so I find that to be really dumb as well.
So overall alot of terrans out there are just stupid. thank you
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On August 26 2012 02:05 Embir wrote:
Yeah, Skeldark found a good objective method to prove that Terrans on the whole have lesser MMR.
It is funny that only posters with some kind of stipulations of his methods are those with Zerg icons.
It's also no coincidence that every Terran Icon seems to aggree with him; people are okay with the race they play being "proven" to be UP, because it makes them feel better about their accomplishments, and justifies troubles they have. While Zerg (and Protoss too) who have problems against Terran, when drawing from their own experience, feel that the Terran UP data doesn't fit their personal experience, so they seek to disprove it, or find something incorrect with the data.
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On August 26 2012 02:10 CrazyF1r3f0x wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 02:05 Embir wrote:
Yeah, Skeldark found a good objective method to prove that Terrans on the whole have lesser MMR.
It is funny that only posters with some kind of stipulations of his methods are those with Zerg icons.
It's also no coincidence that every Terran Icon seems to aggree with him; people are okay with the race they play being "proven" to be UP, because it makes them feel better about their accomplishments, and justifies troubles they have. While Zerg (and Protoss too) who have problems against Terran, when drawing from their own experience, feel that the Terran UP data doesn't fit their personal experience, so they seek to disprove it, or find something incorrect with the data.
You forgot about one thing in this. His method are absloutely objective.
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On August 26 2012 02:06 System42 wrote:
omg....U cant say that terran is doing terrible in tvz and so on lately when terrans have been getting the best results lately they have been winning all the more recent tournaments besides the recent na regional terrans have won. Mlg summer arena 1, Asus rog summer, Campus EU. IEM, ESV grandfinals and just overall good results and people say how tvz zerg is so imba when terrans have been doing just fine against zerg and I feel if u really are losing every game against zerg with terran u don't know how to play your race when there are terrans like taeja with a 82% win rate in tvz. and as Sheth says u cant say your race is so bad when its doing really good.
and being a zerg player I have noticed that when I play against terran a terran player will do some of the stupidest stuff ever and then they will lose because of it and its stupid because after they will talk about balance like they lost all because they chose to play terran no you were just the dumbest player in the game so just think as ur looking through these comments there are terrans out there that do stupid stuff and then complain about balance just because they can
and another thing I remember a time where terrans complained about protoss ALOT and how tvp protoss is op blah blah blah. AND then zerg got a buff to help deal with helions so they got a queen buff and the whloe point of this buff was to kind of help when 4 helions come to your nat so they don't slip into your main because after that happens its pretty much gg.
and then after the buff no changes were made for terran or protoss but yet terrans just moved on and started complaining about zerg. and now Terran are doing really well against protoss and so on so I find that to be really dumb as well.
So overall alot of terrans out there are just stupid. thank you
Are u dumb, or just having difficulties with reading comprehension?
Where did I say that Terrans are doing terrible? They are just doing worse on the ladder - simple as that.
Also - before huge Zerg buffs, Nestea, DRG and Fruitdealer won GSL, not even speaking about Stephano or other Zergs in foreigner tournaments who won many times before patch. You see where Im coming? Yes, fact that single player is doing good with given race doesn't prove that certain race is balanced or not.
User was temp banned for this post.
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On August 26 2012 02:19 Embir wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 02:06 System42 wrote:
omg....U cant say that terran is doing terrible in tvz and so on lately when terrans have been getting the best results lately they have been winning all the more recent tournaments besides the recent na regional terrans have won. Mlg summer arena 1, Asus rog summer, Campus EU. IEM, ESV grandfinals and just overall good results and people say how tvz zerg is so imba when terrans have been doing just fine against zerg and I feel if u really are losing every game against zerg with terran u don't know how to play your race when there are terrans like taeja with a 82% win rate in tvz. and as Sheth says u cant say your race is so bad when its doing really good.
and being a zerg player I have noticed that when I play against terran a terran player will do some of the stupidest stuff ever and then they will lose because of it and its stupid because after they will talk about balance like they lost all because they chose to play terran no you were just the dumbest player in the game so just think as ur looking through these comments there are terrans out there that do stupid stuff and then complain about balance just because they can
and another thing I remember a time where terrans complained about protoss ALOT and how tvp protoss is op blah blah blah. AND then zerg got a buff to help deal with helions so they got a queen buff and the whloe point of this buff was to kind of help when 4 helions come to your nat so they don't slip into your main because after that happens its pretty much gg.
and then after the buff no changes were made for terran or protoss but yet terrans just moved on and started complaining about zerg. and now Terran are doing really well against protoss and so on so I find that to be really dumb as well.
So overall alot of terrans out there are just stupid. thank you Are u dumb, or just having difficulties with reading comprehension? Where did I say that Terrans are doing terrible? They are just doing worse on the ladder - simple as that. Also - before huge Zerg buffs, Nestea, DRG and Fruitdealer won GSL, not even speaking about Stephano or other Zergs in foreigner tournaments who won many times before patch. You see where Im coming? Yes, fact that single player is doing good with given race doesn't prove that certain race is balanced or not. well thanks for showing me and everyone else that ur the most retarded person in the world did I quote you no did I say anything about you no I just that overall think next time please and hey dumbass terran has the most gsl title wins I hope u feel really stupid right now and embarrassed and signle player? LOL Taeja, Merineking, Alive, Supernova, MVP, MMA, all winning huge tournaments recently so I recommend u stfu because thats what most terran players were doing.
User was temp banned for this post.
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On August 26 2012 02:13 Embir wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 02:10 CrazyF1r3f0x wrote:On August 26 2012 02:05 Embir wrote:
Yeah, Skeldark found a good objective method to prove that Terrans on the whole have lesser MMR.
It is funny that only posters with some kind of stipulations of his methods are those with Zerg icons.
It's also no coincidence that every Terran Icon seems to aggree with him; people are okay with the race they play being "proven" to be UP, because it makes them feel better about their accomplishments, and justifies troubles they have. While Zerg (and Protoss too) who have problems against Terran, when drawing from their own experience, feel that the Terran UP data doesn't fit their personal experience, so they seek to disprove it, or find something incorrect with the data. You forgot about one thing in this. His method are absloutely objective.
-_-
I'm not saying they're right, I'm saying in explains the behavior. It doesn't matter how objective the method is, people like hearing there race is harder than the others, and don't enjoy it vice versa.
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On August 26 2012 02:32 System42 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 02:19 Embir wrote:On August 26 2012 02:06 System42 wrote:
omg....U cant say that terran is doing terrible in tvz and so on lately when terrans have been getting the best results lately they have been winning all the more recent tournaments besides the recent na regional terrans have won. Mlg summer arena 1, Asus rog summer, Campus EU. IEM, ESV grandfinals and just overall good results and people say how tvz zerg is so imba when terrans have been doing just fine against zerg and I feel if u really are losing every game against zerg with terran u don't know how to play your race when there are terrans like taeja with a 82% win rate in tvz. and as Sheth says u cant say your race is so bad when its doing really good.
and being a zerg player I have noticed that when I play against terran a terran player will do some of the stupidest stuff ever and then they will lose because of it and its stupid because after they will talk about balance like they lost all because they chose to play terran no you were just the dumbest player in the game so just think as ur looking through these comments there are terrans out there that do stupid stuff and then complain about balance just because they can
and another thing I remember a time where terrans complained about protoss ALOT and how tvp protoss is op blah blah blah. AND then zerg got a buff to help deal with helions so they got a queen buff and the whloe point of this buff was to kind of help when 4 helions come to your nat so they don't slip into your main because after that happens its pretty much gg.
and then after the buff no changes were made for terran or protoss but yet terrans just moved on and started complaining about zerg. and now Terran are doing really well against protoss and so on so I find that to be really dumb as well.
So overall alot of terrans out there are just stupid. thank you Are u dumb, or just having difficulties with reading comprehension? Where did I say that Terrans are doing terrible? They are just doing worse on the ladder - simple as that. Also - before huge Zerg buffs, Nestea, DRG and Fruitdealer won GSL, not even speaking about Stephano or other Zergs in foreigner tournaments who won many times before patch. You see where Im coming? Yes, fact that single player is doing good with given race doesn't prove that certain race is balanced or not. well thanks for showing me and everyone else that ur the most retarded person in the world did I quote you no did I say anything about you no I just that overall think next time please and hey dumbass terran has the most gsl title wins I hope u feel really stupid right now and embarrassed and signle player? LOL Taeja, Merineking, Alive, Supernova, MVP, MMA, all winning huge tournaments recently so I recommend u stfu because thats what most terran players were doing.
Enjoy your ban.
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On August 26 2012 03:05 CrazyF1r3f0x wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 02:13 Embir wrote:On August 26 2012 02:10 CrazyF1r3f0x wrote:On August 26 2012 02:05 Embir wrote:
Yeah, Skeldark found a good objective method to prove that Terrans on the whole have lesser MMR.
It is funny that only posters with some kind of stipulations of his methods are those with Zerg icons.
It's also no coincidence that every Terran Icon seems to aggree with him; people are okay with the race they play being "proven" to be UP, because it makes them feel better about their accomplishments, and justifies troubles they have. While Zerg (and Protoss too) who have problems against Terran, when drawing from their own experience, feel that the Terran UP data doesn't fit their personal experience, so they seek to disprove it, or find something incorrect with the data. You forgot about one thing in this. His method are absloutely objective. -_- I'm not saying they're right, I'm saying in explains the behavior. It doesn't matter how objective the method is, people like hearing there race is harder than the others, and don't enjoy it vice versa.
Oh so this was only psychology off topic? Thanks.
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EPT
