|
So. Todays question is: How volatile is your MMR compared to your points? It is sometimes said that MMR is more volatile, but for some time I have had the feeling that this is not the case. So I made a chart. (I like charts.)
![[image loading]](http://www.lysator.liu.se/~john/winloss.png)
This is my complete match history for the last season, about 250 games. The blue line is how much I on average win per match, subtracted by 12. That means that win 13/lose 11 shows as +1, win 14/lose 10 shows as +2 etc.
The red line is simply the difference between my wins and losses, scaled to fit the chart.
I think it's pretty clear that the red and the blue line mirror each other. That means that every time I start to lose more than I win my opponents get more and more favored. Since points are awarded by comparing my adjusted points with my opponents MMR, it means my MMR moves slower than my points.
I want to point out that the volatility of your MMR most likely isn't fixed. I think a similar chart for a new player would look very different.
|
On November 06 2011 06:00 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2011 06:56 ProfileR wrote:
Guys, can you tell me something? Why is the platinum emblem so ugly? :D
I don't want to leave gold league because it looks more impressive that platinum.
Not an entirely serious post, but the platinum emblem is actually very ugly... To motivate you to get to diamond asap. :D
Aaaaaaaah, that put me on a good mood. Good post mate :D
|
This has probably been answered before, but I couldn't find it. Is there a standard point adjustment between GM and Masters to allow cross-league comparison?
|
United States12247 Posts
On November 09 2011 06:33 kcdc wrote:
This has probably been answered before, but I couldn't find it. Is there a standard point adjustment between GM and Masters to allow cross-league comparison?
It's somewhere around 430 points if memory serves. We never had anything definitive, I think we just narrowed it down to between 410 and 450.
Also Mendelfist I've noticed that too, that's a nice chart. I think once you've played enough games, it has a pretty good idea of where you should be, so uncertainty is low. It probably takes quite a streak or unexpected trend before your MMR really picks up again.
|
http://sc2ranks.com/team/4016368
That's a link to a detailed page of my 1v1 profile. It says I'm in the 1.82% percentile... Masters league is the top 2%. Does that mean I'm close to being promoted? I've been playing against Masters league players and high diamond players on a regular basis. But unfortunately its been about a 50% w/l ratio for me. I mean I've even paired up with 3 Mid-Master players in a row and lost narrowly because of my stupid mistakes. Do I seriously have to beat these mid masters to get some kind of ungodly 60% w/l ratio in order to be promoted?
I have destroyed 9/10 Low Master players in the past few days, I hate how I can't even join the ranks of low masters...
How will I have to perform in my next set of games in order to get promoted? I've been trying so hard for the past season for this one goddamn promotion and it was so infuriating that I lost to Mid Master players three times in a row, undoubtedly tanking my MMR. I won the next set of games but I'm growing impatient, I feel like I'm under the impression that I have to go on a 60 - 70% w/l ratio against Master players and 100% againts High Diamond (which I still lose to on rare occasion).
I shouldn't get so mad, but man I just put so much effort...
Oh but on another note keep up the good work Excalibur, someone should give you a medal for keeping such a good watch over this thread =)
|
Unbelievably deep look into MMR. What an awesome and informative thread! Thanks for posting this!! <3
|
Mendelfist could you tell me how to modify starcraft 2 greeasemonkey
|
On November 10 2011 07:46 Snuggles wrote:http://sc2ranks.com/team/4016368That's a link to a detailed page of my 1v1 profile. It says I'm in the 1.82% percentile... Masters league is the top 2%. Does that mean I'm close to being promoted? I've been playing against Masters league players and high diamond players on a regular basis. But unfortunately its been about a 50% w/l ratio for me. I mean I've even paired up with 3 Mid-Master players in a row and lost narrowly because of my stupid mistakes. Do I seriously have to beat these mid masters to get some kind of ungodly 60% w/l ratio in order to be promoted? I have destroyed 9/10 Low Master players in the past few days, I hate how I can't even join the ranks of low masters... How will I have to perform in my next set of games in order to get promoted? I've been trying so hard for the past season for this one goddamn promotion and it was so infuriating that I lost to Mid Master players three times in a row, undoubtedly tanking my MMR. I won the next set of games but I'm growing impatient, I feel like I'm under the impression that I have to go on a 60 - 70% w/l ratio against Master players and 100% againts High Diamond (which I still lose to on rare occasion). I shouldn't get so mad, but man I just put so much effort... Oh but on another note keep up the good work Excalibur, someone should give you a medal for keeping such a good watch over this thread =)
Thing with sc2ranks is that it excludes higher leagues, which means you are about 1000. in america diamond, not overall.
But you have pretty low number of games played. I got promoted twice from diamond to master, both times i needed 50%+ winrate and being in top 200-300 in my region diamond.
|
On November 10 2011 07:46 Snuggles wrote:
That's a link to a detailed page of my 1v1 profile. It says I'm in the 1.82% percentile... Masters league is the top 2%. Does that mean I'm close to being promoted?
No. Master's is the top 2% (by MMR) of total active players. That percentile you're quoting means that your points are in the top 2% of diamond players (not total players). Your points, not necessarily your MMR.
If most of your opponents are masters though, you are probably close to a promotion.
|
I thought so... Guess I'll just have to blindly continue playing games.
Man. Being positive here I guess I can say that it'll be more of a wonderful surprise when I do get promoted.
|
On November 10 2011 20:34 Lucyan wrote:
Mendelfist could you tell me how to modify starcraft 2 greeasemonkey
Yes. Here are the new dates:
{region:'cn', date:new Date(2011,9,26,4,0,0)},
{region:'tw', date:new Date(2011,9,26,20,0,0)},
{region:'ru', date:new Date(2011,9,26,4,0,0)},
{region:'sea', date:new Date(2011,9,24,22,0,0)},
{region:'eu', date:new Date(2011,9,26,4,47,20)},
{region:'kr', date:new Date(2011,9,26,20,0,0)},
{region:'la', date:new Date(2011,9,26,4,0,0)},
{region:'us', date:new Date(2011,9,25,14,0,0)},
EU should be exact. SEA, TW, KR an US are reasonably close I think, but I didn't pinpoint them to the second. The rest I didn't check.
For those who don't know what we are talking about, it's about getting adjusted points on the battle.net web pages. See this post for more info:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=195273¤tpage=40#798
|
On November 10 2011 22:58 bLah. wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:46 Snuggles wrote:http://sc2ranks.com/team/4016368That's a link to a detailed page of my 1v1 profile. It says I'm in the 1.82% percentile... Masters league is the top 2%. Does that mean I'm close to being promoted? I've been playing against Masters league players and high diamond players on a regular basis. But unfortunately its been about a 50% w/l ratio for me. I mean I've even paired up with 3 Mid-Master players in a row and lost narrowly because of my stupid mistakes. Do I seriously have to beat these mid masters to get some kind of ungodly 60% w/l ratio in order to be promoted? I have destroyed 9/10 Low Master players in the past few days, I hate how I can't even join the ranks of low masters... How will I have to perform in my next set of games in order to get promoted? I've been trying so hard for the past season for this one goddamn promotion and it was so infuriating that I lost to Mid Master players three times in a row, undoubtedly tanking my MMR. I won the next set of games but I'm growing impatient, I feel like I'm under the impression that I have to go on a 60 - 70% w/l ratio against Master players and 100% againts High Diamond (which I still lose to on rare occasion). I shouldn't get so mad, but man I just put so much effort... Oh but on another note keep up the good work Excalibur, someone should give you a medal for keeping such a good watch over this thread =) Thing with sc2ranks is that it excludes higher leagues, which means you are about 1000. in america diamond, not overall. But you have pretty low number of games played. I got promoted twice from diamond to master, both times i needed 50%+ winrate and being in top 200-300 in my region diamond.
Quick question. When you were in the 300 - 1000 range of ranking in Diamond did you face mostly Master players or was there a mix of Diamond and Master?
The reason I ask is because say for example right now I'm around that range but I'm facing mostly almost exclusively Master players at this point. That's signaling to me that my MMR is high enough to play as if I was a Masters player myself, but like you said I have very few games played, thus I have a low rank among diamond players. If I continue remain in this range of rank will I be able to promote myself while maintaining my MMR? As of now I'm breaking even in my w/l against a variety of low and mid master players, do I need to perform even better in order to get promoted?
Reading the OP it seems like if I keep playing and stabilizing my MMR I'll just get promoted but I am getting super anxious for each ladder game I go into. This is because if I really need to play enough to get into like the top .5% of Diamond then that's going to be a tall order with the MMR I have right now, because I'll have to have deal with higher quality Mid Master players and possibly High Master on an off day (WHICH I REALLY DONT WANT) if I keep winning my lower quality Master games.
|
On November 12 2011 04:52 Snuggles wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 22:58 bLah. wrote:On November 10 2011 07:46 Snuggles wrote:http://sc2ranks.com/team/4016368That's a link to a detailed page of my 1v1 profile. It says I'm in the 1.82% percentile... Masters league is the top 2%. Does that mean I'm close to being promoted? I've been playing against Masters league players and high diamond players on a regular basis. But unfortunately its been about a 50% w/l ratio for me. I mean I've even paired up with 3 Mid-Master players in a row and lost narrowly because of my stupid mistakes. Do I seriously have to beat these mid masters to get some kind of ungodly 60% w/l ratio in order to be promoted? I have destroyed 9/10 Low Master players in the past few days, I hate how I can't even join the ranks of low masters... How will I have to perform in my next set of games in order to get promoted? I've been trying so hard for the past season for this one goddamn promotion and it was so infuriating that I lost to Mid Master players three times in a row, undoubtedly tanking my MMR. I won the next set of games but I'm growing impatient, I feel like I'm under the impression that I have to go on a 60 - 70% w/l ratio against Master players and 100% againts High Diamond (which I still lose to on rare occasion). I shouldn't get so mad, but man I just put so much effort... Oh but on another note keep up the good work Excalibur, someone should give you a medal for keeping such a good watch over this thread =) Thing with sc2ranks is that it excludes higher leagues, which means you are about 1000. in america diamond, not overall. But you have pretty low number of games played. I got promoted twice from diamond to master, both times i needed 50%+ winrate and being in top 200-300 in my region diamond. Quick question. When you were in the 300 - 1000 range of ranking in Diamond did you face mostly Master players or was there a mix of Diamond and Master? The reason I ask is because say for example right now I'm around that range but I'm facing mostly almost exclusively Master players at this point. That's signaling to me that my MMR is high enough to play as if I was a Masters player myself, but like you said I have very few games played, thus I have a low rank among diamond players. If I continue remain in this range of rank will I be able to promote myself while maintaining my MMR? As of now I'm breaking even in my w/l against a variety of low and mid master players, do I need to perform even better in order to get promoted? Reading the OP it seems like if I keep playing and stabilizing my MMR I'll just get promoted but I am getting super anxious for each ladder game I go into. This is because if I really need to play enough to get into like the top .5% of Diamond then that's going to be a tall order with the MMR I have right now, because I'll have to have deal with higher quality Mid Master players and possibly High Master on an off day (WHICH I REALLY DONT WANT) if I keep winning my lower quality Master games.
You could be ranked in bronze, but as long as your MMR is stable and/or high enough to be in masters, you'll find yourself in masters soon. Most likely, you're either just below promotion in terms of MMR value, or your MMR uncertainty range is barely too volatile to justify promotion. Don't be afraid, you'll hit masters eventually if you're in that top 2%.
|
Wait, so is the jump from Diamond to masters harder than any of the other jumps, because you're going into the top 2% instead of the next highest 20%?
I'm just wondering cause I'm ~rank 10 diamond myself (ranked about 2500 in region according to sc2ranks). I occasionally play low masters players, mostly diamond though. I haven't buckled down to go for it yet though.
|
On November 12 2011 06:23 galtdunn wrote:
Wait, so is the jump from Diamond to masters harder than any of the other jumps, because you're going into the top 2% instead of the next highest 20%?
I'm just wondering cause I'm ~rank 10 diamond myself (ranked about 2500 in region according to sc2ranks). I occasionally play low masters players, mostly diamond though. I haven't buckled down to go for it yet though.
galtdunn you're about where I was a few weeks ago. It is a very painful process unless you are ALREADY good. IMO and from a comment I had from Excalibur himself, the transition from Diamond to Masters is the hardest aside from the obvious top tier league of GM.
I'm not sure why it is so difficult... But it may be because of the larger skill gap between top diamond players and your average Master player. I fucking hate to say it but we simply just suck, and we literally need to get our acts together in order to be promoted. I honestly have more respect for Diamond players on their way to Masters, than Master players on their way to GM. Sure the skill gap between Master and GM is substantial, but Master players have the luxury of being the top 2% in the region, whereas we diamond players will forever be referred to as the other 98%. This can be extremely frustrating and humiliating when you Master players who look down on you on daily basis with condescending eyes and jaded lens of ego- and go on to say things like "Oh getting promoted to Masters? How can you not manage to do that? So ez."
For us less talented players we have a long road of learning, adapting, improving, etc. to run through for just this one promotion. Often times it may even take an entire mindset change in order for you to do it, which is mentally stressful as it is beneficial.
I may be biased since I'm eagerly looking forward to my promotion one day.
|
@Snuggles yeah I agree. I played a Masters player the other day and beat him (I don't remember how), but he messaged me after telling me I wasn't even that good. I'm not trying to say that I am, but I think this is exactly the kind of crap about Masters not respecting people below them that you're talking about.
And this obviously doesn't go for everybody, so don't get butthurt because you're a silent majority.
Anyways, it's not the skill level I'm having too hard of a time with, although there have been some people I played where I just thought, shit this guy is good... It makes games more fun in my opinion. What's funny is the people where you think, shit this guy is terrible... how am I matched against him?
|
Yeah exactly. On your point about going up on your MMR and meeting better players, it really is exciting and fun. After all we're vying for that promotion because we love competition. But when you're trying your heart out to play your 120% in order to compete with your "Slightly Favored" opponent and miraculously win, its a huge downer when your opponent does everything they can to discredit your win.
On an awesome note I just looked up with a very nice former High Diamond player named Cubix that I had played with and lost too a week ago. We had a nice chat over our struggle to be promoted and he gave me tips and shared his thought process as he played against me. On Nov. 7th he was promoted to Masters peaking at 536 points. I seriously feel so happy for this guy. This is a true Masters player. Not some guy who clings on to his league since transferring into it right after the creation of the league- hangs around low Masters and continually flaunts his ego everywhere =_=. We need more players like Cubix. He is now a proud Mid Masters player in the top 12% of the league, awesome.
|
United States12247 Posts
On November 12 2011 06:53 Snuggles wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2011 06:23 galtdunn wrote:
Wait, so is the jump from Diamond to masters harder than any of the other jumps, because you're going into the top 2% instead of the next highest 20%?
I'm just wondering cause I'm ~rank 10 diamond myself (ranked about 2500 in region according to sc2ranks). I occasionally play low masters players, mostly diamond though. I haven't buckled down to go for it yet though. galtdunn you're about where I was a few weeks ago. It is a very painful process unless you are ALREADY good. IMO and from a comment I had from Excalibur himself, the transition from Diamond to Masters is the hardest aside from the obvious top tier league of GM. I'm not sure why it is so difficult... But it may be because of the larger skill gap between top diamond players and your average Master player. I fucking hate to say it but we simply just suck, and we literally need to get our acts together in order to be promoted. I honestly have more respect for Diamond players on their way to Masters, than Master players on their way to GM. Sure the skill gap between Master and GM is substantial, but Master players have the luxury of being the top 2% in the region, whereas we diamond players will forever be referred to as the other 98%. This can be extremely frustrating and humiliating when you Master players who look down on you on daily basis with condescending eyes and jaded lens of ego- and go on to say things like "Oh getting promoted to Masters? How can you not manage to do that? So ez." For us less talented players we have a long road of learning, adapting, improving, etc. to run through for just this one promotion. Often times it may even take an entire mindset change in order for you to do it, which is mentally stressful as it is beneficial. I may be biased since I'm eagerly looking forward to my promotion one day.
Without going on too much of a tangent (hehhhh) here, I think if you were to chart the actual skill required to be a certain league or MMR or whatever, it would probably look pretty close to a curve similar to y=-cot(x) where X is MMR and Y is actual skill level.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/CXnsN.gif)
That is, the actual difference in skill between someone who is a complete and total newb and someone who is slightly more experienced is huge, and that difference is going to allow the better player to win pretty much all the time. I think the same is probably true on the high end of the spectrum too, where the skill difference between a Diamond and Master player is also significant.
Now, it wouldn't be exactly asymptotic because there's got to be some skill ceiling (and on the low end there's got to be some floor which is like... a player who doesn't touch anything once the game starts), but I think a curve like that would generally make sense to me. I think that's why it's so daunting for a lot of Diamond players to get into Master: maybe they underestimate the actual level of skill that's required to get there.
|
wow Excalibur, you show the skill gap between players with solid math. God you're one awesome guy lol. I'm not a math wiz myself, but with the work you've done that graph may be very trustworthy haha.
EDIT: just got that tangent pun... wow you nerd baller lol
|
Isn't the pdf shaped like a truncated gaussian? That should mean the skill gaps are larger the higher the skill and relatively small at the lower end of the spectrum.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
