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Harris1st
Germany6805 Posts
Was just taking a look at the brackets and noticing basically every top Protoss got taken out by a Terran (KO-Stage/ Playoffs) Gumi > Nice Byun > trigger Byun > Stats Spirit > Astrea Cure > Nightmare Cure > Classic Maru > hero With the only exception of hero > Clem. This is like an 87,5% winrate for TvP at the top end. Thoughts? | ||
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Durnuu
13319 Posts
On June 04 2024 16:02 Harris1st wrote: So what happened to Protoss this tournament? Was just taking a look at the brackets and noticing basically every top Protoss got taken out by a Terran (KO-Stage/ Playoffs) Gumi > Nice Byun > trigger Byun > Stats Spirit > Astrea Cure > Nightmare Cure > Classic Maru > hero With the only exception of hero > Clem. This is like an 87,5% winrate for TvP at the top end. Thoughts? Fucking lasers | ||
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MJG
United Kingdom835 Posts
On June 04 2024 16:02 Harris1st wrote: So what happened to Protoss this tournament? Was just taking a look at the brackets and noticing basically every top Protoss got taken out by a Terran (KO-Stage/ Playoffs) Gumi > Nice Byun > trigger Byun > Stats Spirit > Astrea Cure > Nightmare Cure > Classic Maru > hero With the only exception of hero > Clem. This is like an 87,5% winrate for TvP at the top end. Thoughts? Protoss is overly reliant on Disruptors in macro games, and top-level Terrans are getting ever better at dodging them. AoE is a requirement for late-game Protoss, but neither Colossi nor Templar nor Archons can do anything once Ghost/Viking is out in large enough number. Protoss is on a bit of a timer in this regard. Protoss is the most immobile race in an expansion that has increasingly focused on faster expansions, small-scale engagements and harassment. Terran is an incredibly mobile race offensively, and top Terrans are really good at exploiting the immobility of Protoss armies. Protoss is a race of gimmicks held together by other gimmicks. Terrans won't lose to 4 Gate Blink pressure every single game, or DT drops, or proxy Oracles, or whatever, and so something gives eventually. Etcetera. Protoss just isn't built for Legacy of the Void. It requires too many band-aids to function. Fortunately, the negatives that come from all those band-aids only really affect the very top players, and they kinda have the opposite affect once you get below that level, so I can continue casually cheesing people on the ladder with impunity! | ||
Charoisaur
Germany15880 Posts
On June 04 2024 16:02 Harris1st wrote: So what happened to Protoss this tournament? Was just taking a look at the brackets and noticing basically every top Protoss got taken out by a Terran (KO-Stage/ Playoffs) Gumi > Nice Byun > trigger Byun > Stats Spirit > Astrea Cure > Nightmare Cure > Classic Maru > hero With the only exception of hero > Clem. This is like an 87,5% winrate for TvP at the top end. Thoughts? Which of these matches should have been won by the Protoss in your opinion? | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6805 Posts
On June 04 2024 17:37 Charoisaur wrote: Which of these matches should have been won by the Protoss in your opinion? Gumi > Nice Byun > trigger Byun > Stats Spirit > Astrea Cure > Nightmare Cure > Classic Maru > hero Bolded those which are IMO at least 50/50. Maybe hero and Maru as well. It's always close with these two | ||
Poopi
France12761 Posts
On June 04 2024 18:08 Harris1st wrote: Gumi > Nice Byun > trigger Byun > Stats Spirit > Astrea Cure > Nightmare Cure > Classic Maru > hero Bolded those which are IMO at least 50/50. Maybe hero and Maru as well. It's always close with these two Those matches might be 50/50, but the players still have to play in order to win, they don't toss a coin. I see nothing particularly surprising statistically speaking It's like the sloppy_donkey guy on reddit with his focus on premier tournament results by protoss, omitting that protoss did very well in StarsWar 11. The fact that it's (sw11) not a premier tournament on Liquipedia is kinda irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, the players there tried very hard and it showed in their gameplay. If you have more insider info (speak to the players, why they felt they lost, etc.), you can conduct a more qualitative analysis (or even by analyzing the games / series) | ||
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darklycid
3375 Posts
On June 04 2024 18:21 Poopi wrote: Those matches might be 50/50, but the players still have to play in order to win, they don't toss a coin. I see nothing particularly surprising statistically speaking It's like the sloppy_donkey guy on reddit with his focus on premier tournament results by protoss, omitting that protoss did very well in StarsWar 11. The fact that it's (sw11) not a premier tournament on Liquipedia is kinda irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, the players there tried very hard and it showed in their gameplay. If you have more insider info (speak to the players, why they felt they lost, etc.), you can conduct a more qualitative analysis (or even by analyzing the games / series) At least from watching it seems like the biggest issue in tvp is that playing defensive/straight macro games is just not that successful (except the terran fucks up), so the success is from aggressive protosses which can only work for so long. | ||
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Poopi
France12761 Posts
On June 04 2024 20:50 darklycid wrote: At least from watching it seems like the biggest issue in tvp is that playing defensive/straight macro games is just not that successful (except the terran fucks up), so the success is from aggressive protosses which can only work for so long. So similarly to how you need to play TvZ vs Serral then? (see Oliveira vs Serral and Maru vs Serral) Seems more like stylistic problem than balance issue then. | ||
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darklycid
3375 Posts
On June 04 2024 21:02 Poopi wrote: So similarly to how you need to play TvZ vs Serral then? (see Oliveira vs Serral and Maru vs Serral) Seems more like stylistic problem than balance issue then. Uh no one thing is versus a certain player one is a whole matchup. | ||
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Argonauta
Spain4902 Posts
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Branch.AUT
Austria853 Posts
On June 04 2024 21:50 darklycid wrote: Uh no one thing is versus a certain player one is a whole matchup. Definitely a matchup thing, and therefore can't be solved by playing towards an opponents weakness. Without the option of winning lategame, timing attacks are the only way. This tends to happen, when a spellcaster unit can basically delete half an army. EMP is just as oppressive as chain fungal was way back when. And it could be dealt with the same way. | ||
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LukaMav
28 Posts
On June 04 2024 21:52 Argonauta wrote: As classic said, make Colossos strong again, even if you need to make them slightly expensive, idn. A easy fix would be “Protoss shield will never go below 50% when hit by emped” Ghost is an embarassing unit | ||
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Poopi
France12761 Posts
On June 04 2024 21:50 darklycid wrote: Uh no one thing is versus a certain player one is a whole matchup. Then why did every zerg struggle versus protoss, until Serral showed the way at Dallas? "A match-up thing" doesn't mean much, maybe at EWC protoss will start crushing T/Z again | ||
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darklycid
3375 Posts
On June 05 2024 02:52 Poopi wrote: Then why did every zerg struggle versus protoss, until Serral showed the way at Dallas? "A match-up thing" doesn't mean much, maybe at EWC protoss will start crushing T/Z again Huh, i dont disagree that we should observer a little more how the mu plays out but the serral analogies make no sense. | ||
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JJH777
United States4378 Posts
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Locutos
Brazil259 Posts
On June 04 2024 21:52 Argonauta wrote: As classic said, make Colossos strong again, even if you need to make them slightly expensive, idn. make them shoot air, like Thors, as an upgrade. Or upgrade so immortals do aoe. Solved. Next! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17610 Posts
On June 05 2024 04:35 JJH777 wrote: Has any pro done analysis on the Serral vs Maru finals yet? I'm curious to see high level thoughts on those games. It makes no sense to me that Maru died so easily by the 10 minute mark every single game. Pretty sure it's just a mental breakdown, nothing to do with knowledge or strategy or mechanics | ||
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Poopi
France12761 Posts
On June 05 2024 05:24 Die4Ever wrote: Pretty sure it's just a mental breakdown, nothing to do with knowledge or strategy or mechanics There is still analysis to be done by pros though. A lot of them have had access to sport psychologists, so they can have great insights watching the replays of what Maru might have thought at each moment. Even if it ends up as "overall a mental breakdown", there is still value in analyzing it imho. I would be very happy to watch such a video | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland24410 Posts
On June 05 2024 05:29 Poopi wrote: There is still analysis to be done by pros though. A lot of them have had access to sport psychologists, so they can have great insights watching the replays of what Maru might have thought at each moment. Even if it ends up as "overall a mental breakdown", there is still value in analyzing it imho. I would be very happy to watch such a video Just in general that’s definitely a content niche I think would be super interesting to listen to | ||
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JJH777
United States4378 Posts
On June 05 2024 05:24 Die4Ever wrote: Pretty sure it's just a mental breakdown, nothing to do with knowledge or strategy or mechanics I guess it might be but seemed to be more than that to me. Like Serral was perfectly predicting Maru and hard countering him every game even though Maru changed up what he was doing each time. To me game 4 of the Kato finals is more of a mental breakdown than any game in this series. 0 reason he ever should have lost that game besides being mentally broken from being down 0-3. As a standalone game most pros would have called that over in Maru's favor at one point. The games at Dallas didn't feel like that to me. They were just Maru instantly dying to Serral's first attack and it seemed like he had no way to defend with what he had even with perfect execution. 4-0 in 40 minutes in ZvT is crazy. | ||
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