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Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-12-25 20:01:06
December 25 2014 19:59 GMT
#21
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Day 5


Chances During This Tournament (Sim #1130 to #1139)
+ Show Spoiler [Changes During This Tournament] +
Also includes the setting of the GSL Ro32 groups.
Biggest Winners
kr Rogue went up by 26.47%, going from 28.2% to 54.67%
kr Dream went up by 25.06%, going from 13.34% to 38.41%
kr Dark went up by 23.04%, going from 20.44% to 43.48%
kr Terminator went up by 20.52%, going from 14.8% to 35.32%
kr Dear went up by 19.77%, going from 43.96% to 63.73%
kr Life went up by 16.23%, going from 56.07% to 72.31%
kr TY went up by 16.07%, going from 52.25% to 68.33%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

kr Stats went up by 14.92%, going from 18.3% to 33.22%
kr GuMiho went up by 12.21%, going from 66.99% to 79.2%
kr Maru went up by 10.77%, going from 50.45% to 61.22%
kr Classic went up by 7.56%, going from 9.99% to 17.56%
kr MyuNgSiK went up by 7.31%, going from 5.64% to 12.95%
kr FanTaSy went up by 5.14%, going from 9.99% to 15.13%
kr Hydra went up by 3.79%, going from 10.82% to 14.62%
kr Rain went up by 3.69%, going from 65.08% to 68.77%
us Hitman went up by 1.63%, going from 0.4% to 2.04%
es VortiX went up by 1.2%, going from 10.44% to 11.64%
kr Polt went up by 0.85%, going from 23.29% to 24.14%
no Snute went up by 0.72%, going from 10.99% to 11.7%
kr Hurricane went up by 0.7%, going from 1.49% to 2.19%
kr MC went up by 0.62%, going from 7.35% to 7.97%
cn Top went up by 0.61%, going from 3.5% to 4.11%
pl Nerchio went up by 0.61%, going from 7.64% to 8.25%
kr SuperNova went up by 0.34%, going from 0.63% to 0.97%
ru Happy went up by 0.26%, going from 8.8% to 9.07%
pl souL went up by 0.26%, going from 0.01% to 0.27%
us Xenocider went up by 0.25%, going from 0.01% to 0.25%
fr Dayshi went up by 0.2%, going from 2.07% to 2.27%
ca MaSa went up by 0.18%, going from 8.39% to 8.57%
ua Strelok went up by 0.18%, going from 1.1% to 1.28%
kr Armani went up by 0.17%, going from 0.17% to 0.34%
cn XiGua went up by 0.16%, going from 2.31% to 2.47%
kr Revival went up by 0.16%, going from 0.59% to 0.74%
kr sOs went up by 0.14%, going from 25.64% to 25.78%
il Complain went up by 0.11%, going from 0.09% to 0.2%
kr eMotion went up by 0.11%, going from 0.29% to 0.39%


Biggest Losers
kr TaeJa went down by 24.16%, going from 72.12% to 47.96%
kr Solar went down by 23.07%, going from 56.4% to 33.34%
kr INnoVation went down by 21.08%, going from 66.74% to 45.67%
kr Soulkey went down by 20.36%, going from 37.21% to 16.85%
kr PartinG went down by 19.54%, going from 77.08% to 57.53%
kr San went down by 18.93%, going from 40.47% to 21.54%
kr Flash went down by 18.62%, going from 24.92% to 6.3%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

kr Cure went down by 12.1%, going from 19.61% to 7.51%
ca Scarlett went down by 11.23%, going from 18.76% to 7.54%
cn Jim went down by 4.26%, going from 11.27% to 7.01%
kr Patience went down by 3.07%, going from 5.06% to 1.99%
kr MarineKing went down by 2.92%, going from 28.77% to 25.85%
kr MMA went down by 2.38%, going from 28.5% to 26.13%
kr Bomber went down by 2.17%, going from 40.82% to 38.65%
kr viOLet went down by 2.08%, going from 12.08% to 10.01%
kr YoDa went down by 2.07%, going from 23.86% to 21.79%
kr Super went down by 2.02%, going from 30.6% to 28.58%
kr sKyHigh went down by 1.99%, going from 3.07% to 1.08%
kr ByuL went down by 1.95%, going from 10.33% to 8.38%
kr herO went down by 1.82%, going from 84.31% to 82.48%
fr Lilbow went down by 1.59%, going from 10.26% to 8.67%
kr ForGG went down by 1.54%, going from 37.05% to 35.5%
kr Curious went down by 1.46%, going from 4.37% to 2.9%
kr YongHwa went down by 1.44%, going from 8.26% to 6.81%
kr Zest went down by 1.37%, going from 17.63% to 16.26%
kr Heart went down by 1.31%, going from 5.37% to 4.06%
kr Sacsri went down by 1.23%, going from 4.69% to 3.46%
dk Bunny went down by 1.05%, going from 6.73% to 5.67%
kr KingKong went down by 0.96%, going from 2.61% to 1.65%
kr Hack went down by 0.92%, going from 5.31% to 4.39%
de ShoWTimE went down by 0.7%, going from 4.99% to 4.29%
kr jjakji went down by 0.64%, going from 5.03% to 4.39%
kr Jaedong went down by 0.64%, going from 7.59% to 6.96%
ca HuK went down by 0.51%, going from 3.93% to 3.43%
mx MajOr went down by 0.45%, going from 20.2% to 19.75%
nl uThermal went down by 0.38%, going from 3.18% to 2.8%
kr soO went down by 0.38%, going from 5.01% to 4.63%
kr Losira went down by 0.36%, going from 3.02% to 2.65%
uk Ourk went down by 0.31%, going from 6.68% to 6.36%
cn iAsonu went down by 0.31%, going from 1.47% to 1.16%
pl Elazer went down by 0.31%, going from 0.73% to 0.42%
ca hendralisk went down by 0.28%, going from 0.78% to 0.5%
ua Bly went down by 0.28%, going from 0.81% to 0.54%
de TLO went down by 0.27%, going from 1.77% to 1.5%
pl MaNa went down by 0.27%, going from 4.34% to 4.07%
ru sLivko went down by 0.25%, going from 0.98% to 0.72%
ua Kas went down by 0.24%, going from 3.45% to 3.21%
us Illusion went down by 0.24%, going from 0.41% to 0.17%
ca Kane went down by 0.23%, going from 3.12% to 2.89%
kr DongRaeGu went down by 0.23%, going from 1.96% to 1.73%



kr ByuL vs kr Super in
in StarLeague Season 1 round of 32.
kr ByuL is at 8.38% Blizzcon Chances.
49.68% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 14.07%.
50.32% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 2.76%.
kr Super is at 28.58% Blizzcon Chances.
50.32% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 39.96%.
49.68% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 17.06%.

kr Bbyong vs kr herO in
in StarLeague Season 1 round of 32.
kr Bbyong is at 20.66% Blizzcon Chances.
41.76% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 35.36%.
58.24% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 10.12%.
kr herO is at 82.48% Blizzcon Chances.
58.24% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 91.21%.
41.76% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 70.31%.

kr YongHwa vs kr Leenock in
in StarLeague Season 1 round of 32.
kr YongHwa is at 6.81% Blizzcon Chances.
44.38% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 11.36%.
55.62% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 3.18%.
kr Leenock is at 9.58% Blizzcon Chances.
55.62% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 14.81%.
44.38% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 3.02%.

kr MarineKing vs kr FanTaSy in
in StarLeague Season 1 round of 32.
kr MarineKing is at 25.85% Blizzcon Chances.
47.22% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 36.92%.
52.78% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 15.95%.
kr FanTaSy is at 15.13% Blizzcon Chances.
52.78% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 21.88%.
47.22% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 7.57%.

StarLeague Season 1 Winning Chances in ~
kr GuMiho has a 12.98% chance to win
----going from 79.2% to 99.88% if they get 1st, or 96.55% if they get 2nd.
kr Life has a 11.5% chance to win
----going from 72.31% to 99.46% if they get 1st, or 93.43% if they get 2nd.
kr TY has a 9.61% chance to win
----going from 68.33% to 99.58% if they get 1st, or 93.19% if they get 2nd.
kr Dear has a 8.79% chance to win
----going from 63.73% to 99.2% if they get 1st, or 91.15% if they get 2nd.
kr Maru has a 8.59% chance to win
----going from 61.22% to 99.07% if they get 1st, or 89.69% if they get 2nd.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

kr herO has a 7.51% chance to win
----going from 82.48% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 99.77% if they get 2nd.
kr Stats has a 6.2% chance to win
----going from 33.22% to 94.99% if they get 1st, or 70.59% if they get 2nd.
kr Rogue has a 6.14% chance to win
----going from 54.67% to 98.89% if they get 1st, or 87.92% if they get 2nd.
kr Dark has a 4.66% chance to win
----going from 43.48% to 97.96% if they get 1st, or 81.96% if they get 2nd.
kr Dream has a 4.2% chance to win
----going from 38.41% to 97.44% if they get 1st, or 78.39% if they get 2nd.
kr Classic has a 3.69% chance to win
----going from 17.56% to 87.18% if they get 1st, or 52.39% if they get 2nd.
kr Terminator has a 3.2% chance to win
----going from 35.32% to 98.11% if they get 1st, or 79.43% if they get 2nd.
kr MyuNgSiK has a 2.7% chance to win
----going from 12.95% to 84.56% if they get 1st, or 46.94% if they get 2nd.
kr Bbyong has a 2.52% chance to win
----going from 20.66% to 96.92% if they get 1st, or 74.52% if they get 2nd.
kr Super has a 2.03% chance to win
----going from 28.58% to 98.36% if they get 1st, or 81.14% if they get 2nd.
kr Leenock has a 1.66% chance to win
----going from 9.58% to 86.06% if they get 1st, or 48.62% if they get 2nd.
kr ByuL has a 1.42% chance to win
----going from 8.38% to 85.03% if they get 1st, or 47.82% if they get 2nd.
kr FanTaSy has a 1.06% chance to win
----going from 15.13% to 95.02% if they get 1st, or 66.27% if they get 2nd.
kr MarineKing has a 1.03% chance to win
----going from 25.85% to 99.74% if they get 1st, or 87.16% if they get 2nd.
kr YongHwa has a 0.52% chance to win
----going from 6.81% to 90.29% if they get 1st, or 50.25% if they get 2nd.

"Expert" mods4ever.com
[PkF] Wire
Profile Joined March 2013
France24227 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-12-25 22:25:27
December 25 2014 22:24 GMT
#22
ByuL > Super
Bbyong < herO
YongHwa < Leenock
MarineKing > FanTaSy

(and if both Zergs go through as I predict and hope, we get a pretty balanced ro16 by the way)
royalroadweed
Profile Joined April 2013
United States8301 Posts
December 25 2014 22:45 GMT
#23
Time for Bbyong to beat herO and take over as CJ's ace.
"Nerfing Toss can just make them stronger"
kochanfe
Profile Joined July 2011
Micronesia1338 Posts
December 25 2014 22:48 GMT
#24
I Bet:
Super 2-3 ByuL (could honestly see it going 3-2 or 3-1 in either's favor though...)
herO 2-3 Bbyong
YongHwa 3-1 Leenock
FanTaSy 3-1 MarineKing (maybe 3-2)
"The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long." - Lao Tzu
ANLProbe
Profile Joined October 2013
667 Posts
December 25 2014 23:03 GMT
#25
Choosing between Fantasy and MKP is like Protoss choosing their all in.
Go TAEJA
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
December 25 2014 23:48 GMT
#26
Starts in 6 hours and I stil haven't gone to bed yet.

It's your chance, American West Coast. Show your passion in this LR.
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Swisslink
Profile Joined March 2011
2954 Posts
December 26 2014 00:06 GMT
#27
On December 26 2014 07:24 [PkF] Wire wrote:
ByuL > Super
Bbyong < herO
YongHwa < Leenock
MarineKing > FanTaSy

(and if both Zergs go through as I predict and hope, we get a pretty balanced ro16 by the way)


I'd say ByuL SHOULD go through. But YongHwa - Leenock can go either way, although I'd favour the Protoss here. YongHwa hasn't been too bad lately.
Lorning *
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgica34432 Posts
December 26 2014 00:07 GMT
#28
MKP plays last so I guess I can sleep a little longer

gogo
Community News
TL+ Member
rotta
Profile Joined December 2011
5594 Posts
December 26 2014 00:59 GMT
#29
Argh, 5hrs - to sleep or not to sleep?
don't wall off against random
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12298 Posts
December 26 2014 01:36 GMT
#30
damn I didn't think it would be that early, there's no way I can be awake for this one :/
No will to live, no wish to die
Phredxor
Profile Joined May 2013
New Zealand15076 Posts
December 26 2014 01:47 GMT
#31
Oh it's way earlier today, awesome. Don't have to stay up late hoping for quick games now :D
Muffloe
Profile Joined December 2012
Sweden6061 Posts
December 26 2014 01:55 GMT
#32
Wow, these are some really painful match-ups. Byul, Bbyong, really can't decide between Leenock and Yongwha, and Fantasy I guess :p
Parcelleus
Profile Joined January 2011
Australia1662 Posts
December 26 2014 02:28 GMT
#33
SC2 these days soooooooooooo good. Kespa fully intergrate now
*burp*
Caihead
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada8550 Posts
December 26 2014 03:34 GMT
#34
Cheering for Fantasy.
"If you're not living in the US or are a US Citizen, please do not tell us how to vote or how you want our country to be governed." - Serpest, American Hero
Megiddosc
Profile Joined April 2011
United States966 Posts
December 26 2014 04:22 GMT
#35
Can I please get confirmation that the matches are indeed starting in an hour and a half? Last time this happened I stayed up and then wolf tweeted that he was somehow mistaken on the times.

Fool me once, etc.
KingofdaHipHop
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
United States25602 Posts
December 26 2014 04:30 GMT
#36
On December 26 2014 13:22 Megiddosc wrote:
Can I please get confirmation that the matches are indeed starting in an hour and a half? Last time this happened I stayed up and then wolf tweeted that he was somehow mistaken on the times.

Fool me once, etc.

It's happening four hours earlier because there's an extra best of five, it is starting in an hour and a half.
Rain | herO | sOs | Dear | Neeb | ByuN | INnoVation | Dream | ForGG | Maru | ByuL | Golden | Solar | Soulkey | Scarlett!!!
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
December 26 2014 04:31 GMT
#37
On December 26 2014 13:30 KingofdaHipHop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 26 2014 13:22 Megiddosc wrote:
Can I please get confirmation that the matches are indeed starting in an hour and a half? Last time this happened I stayed up and then wolf tweeted that he was somehow mistaken on the times.

Fool me once, etc.

It's happening four hours earlier because there's an extra best of five, it is starting in an hour and a half.

I guess they expect MarineKing vs FanTaSy will take 4 hours then?
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Phredxor
Profile Joined May 2013
New Zealand15076 Posts
December 26 2014 04:33 GMT
#38
On December 26 2014 13:31 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 26 2014 13:30 KingofdaHipHop wrote:
On December 26 2014 13:22 Megiddosc wrote:
Can I please get confirmation that the matches are indeed starting in an hour and a half? Last time this happened I stayed up and then wolf tweeted that he was somehow mistaken on the times.

Fool me once, etc.

It's happening four hours earlier because there's an extra best of five, it is starting in an hour and a half.

I guess they expect MarineKing vs FanTaSy will take 4 hours then?


Oh god imagine the gg timings :/
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-12-26 04:58:52
December 26 2014 04:58 GMT
#39
On December 26 2014 13:33 Phredxor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 26 2014 13:31 The_Templar wrote:
On December 26 2014 13:30 KingofdaHipHop wrote:
On December 26 2014 13:22 Megiddosc wrote:
Can I please get confirmation that the matches are indeed starting in an hour and a half? Last time this happened I stayed up and then wolf tweeted that he was somehow mistaken on the times.

Fool me once, etc.

It's happening four hours earlier because there's an extra best of five, it is starting in an hour and a half.

I guess they expect MarineKing vs FanTaSy will take 4 hours then?


Oh god imagine the gg timings :/

Gonna make a bold prediction here. There will be at least 3 appropriately timed GGs in that series.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
PresenceSc2
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia4032 Posts
December 26 2014 05:18 GMT
#40
On December 26 2014 03:39 Philozovic wrote:
Leenock please don't break my heart


Poll: Which one is longer ?

MKP vs Fantasy ? (5)
 
100%

Firecake vs Avilo ? (0)
 
0%

5 total votes

Your vote: Which one is longer ?

(Vote): Firecake vs Avilo ?
(Vote): MKP vs Fantasy ?



If there isn't at least 1 draw i will be disappointed
Stephano//HerO//TaeJa//Squirtle//Bomber
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