WCS Europe Season 1 - Premier League

Ro16: Group A Preview
MMA, ForGG, Strelok, TLO


Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

by Waxangel

Ladies and gentlemen, we are going LIVE. For the Ro16, WCS Europe moves to ESL's studio in cologne, where all the players are gathered to play their games in a much more tense environment. This week will feature the four groups of the Ro16, with the winners not only moving onto the Ro8 (duh) but earning seeds into WCS Europe: Season II. We start off with Group A, featuring...

Group A: ForGG, MMA, Strelok, TLO

Mill.ForGG

In the case of ForGG, we can't help but harp the same old story until he finally wins a big tournament: he's Europe's resident silver surfer. With there being so many more tournaments than there were in Brood War, it's highly unlikely we're ever going to see the equivalent of Yellow in StarCraft II. But for the time being, ForGG is still a member of the Kong Line (perennial second place players), having come agonizingly close to victory at both DreamHack Valencia and ESWC 2012, only to fall just short at the final hurdle.

The problem for ForGG is that his window to win a championship is narrowing, as his relocation to Europe seems to have affected his skills. Yes, he has great natural talent and mechanics, as well as an uncanny ability to grind the ladder forever. However, the EU server is not the KR server (SortOf and NaNiwa will testify to that fact), and we've seen ForGG go from sure-fire title contender in any tournament he enters to one that often gets eliminated by top foreign players. In fact, his latest performance at DreamHack Stockholm saw him go out 0 – 3 from his group as he lost to SaSe, TLO, and Nerchio – not a good sign heading into a group which you could say is at least equal in difficulty.

ForGG is still definitely a strong contender in this tournament, but isn't one of the big favorites. If things click and his condition is good on game days, then he can make a deep run. Hmm, that sounds dangerously like a cliché line we'd give a popular European player... Well, that's no surprise. ForGG's essentially become one of the locals.


Acer.MMA

MMA has fallen greatly from his days as the best in the world and the heir to Boxer's legacy, but at least HotS has him trending upward again he spent nearly a year in a long, downward spiral. Getting out of a bad situation on SlayerS was one step, finding a good team environment in the Axiom team house was another. Advancing to the Ro8 of WCS Europe is the next.

Of course, recovering his past glory is many, many more steps away for MMA, if it's possible at all. DreamHack Stockholm taught us that there's different classes even between Koreans, and MMA's performances so far suggest he's leaning toward the 'switching WCS regions wasn't a choice, it was an evacuation' tier. He fell to Feast's early game attacks in the Ro32 in WCS Europe, and he's only been batting around .500 against Koreans in the Acer TeamStory Cup.

Then again, this is still the best we've seen him at for a long time. His TvZ was absolutely abyssal against brood lord-infestor, but it's back to being by far his best match-up in HotS. His TvP is still problematic like it was in WoL, so he will have rely on some bracket luck there. On the whole he is in the upper-half of players in this tournament, and if he can avoid Protoss opponents he is one of the strong favorites to take it all.


Na`Vi.Strelok

We've always loved Strelok and his honest demeanor, willingness to elaborate on his thoughts, and his East European accent. However, his play itself was not one we found particularly entertaining in WoL, being close-to-standard without enough to distinguish it. However, HotS Strelok has been quite a pleasure to watch so far, as he plays an interesting, mech-oriented style. We heard someone say "GoOdy 2.0" as a joke, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Yes, strong defense is the backbone of any mech play (except Gumiho's), but Strelok uses plenty of drops and aggressive tactics to keep his games exciting. If for no other reason than the fact he is different from other players, Strelok is someone you should keep an eye out for in this tournament.

There's another reason you should be following Strelok: he cruised through the WCS Europe qualifiers and destroyed his Ro32 group. European stalwarts Ret and ThorZaIN were no match against Strelok, and he went through the group without dropping even a map. Alas, even with such a Ro32 performance Strelok didn't like this Ro16 group draw. He does have a point, as TvT is one of the match-ups where Koreans seem to dominate foreigners hard, with their speed, positioning, and quick decision making frequently proving to be too much. While Strelok has entertained us a lot so far, we're sad to say he's likely to be eliminated at this stage.


Liquid`TLO

Although we've most frequently brought up Grubby as the example of slow and steady improvement, we might soon be replacing him with TLO. After a race change and a severe wrist condition effectively took TLO out of the competitive picture, he's been on a rocky upward path since 2012 (Aligulac.com's graph is a great visual representation). While many rushed to yell "patchzerg!" upon seeing TLO's ascent in 2012, he's continued to improve in Heart of the Swarm. His recent Ro16 finish at DreamHack Stockholm wasn't his best result placement wise, but the list of opponents he defeated was very impressive: JYP, ForGG, SaSe, and Nerchio. TLO then continued his good HotS run in WCS Europe, taking out two more big names in Kas and NaNiwa to reach the Ro16.

After long being derided as a big name without the skills to back it up, it's funny to see TLO's name start to be talked about in feared tones by various pros. Possessing strong ZvT and having only that match-up to practice for, TLO has a unique advantage in this group. One thing we have to wonder about is TLO's nerves in such an important tournament. TLO is especially self flagellating about mistakes and poor play in big matches, and for a player who has been around for such a long time, he hasn't actually played on that many big stages. If he can overcome the pressure of the moment, then we're picking him to make it through this group.

Overall Predictions:

There is one thing we have to say about Korean Terrans: No matter how much their other match-ups decline, their TvT always seems to be the last to go. Much like other once-champions such as Mvp or PuMa, MMA and ForGG have preserved their TvT at a very high level compared to their other match-ups. While this means ForGG vs. MMA is a toss-up, it spells disaster for Strelok who can't even luck into a "beat TLO twice" scenario given the bracket.

Looking at the way MMA took care of business against SortOf, it's probably safe to say TLO won't beat him, even with his hyperbolic ZvT chamber training. On the other hand, his chances against ForGG look pretty good, as he already beat him at DH: Stockholm and because ForGG has looked eminently beatable in HotS TvZ. The way these brackets work out...

TLO > ForGG
MMA > Strelok
MMA > TLO
ForGG > Strelok
TLO > ForGG

MMA and TLO advance.

Writers: Waxangel.
Graphics: shiroiusagi.
Editor: Waxangel.