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[MSL] Equality
December 31st, 2009 09:14 GMT
Jaedong, Flash, Kal, Hwasin, Best, Light, Kwanro, and Stats. Out of nearly two hundred other players, these 8 have clawed their way through opponent after opponent to make it to the Bo5 stage. Just for this, every player here deserves to be applauded - it certainly was not an easy road. Unfortunately for some of them, however, this is where it comes to an end. So cheer your hearts out for your favorite player, because while making the quarterfinals is commendable, it is easily forgotten. A trophy is much harder to ignore.
But first, let's take a quick look at the Ro16 victories that got them this far:
Ro16 Results:
 BeSt 2-0  Canata
Light 2-0  hero
Kwanro 2-1 Bogus
Hwasin 2-0 GuemChi
Flash 2-1 ZerO
Kal 2-0 Saint
Jaedong 2-0 FireFist
Stats 2-1 JangBi
Two things to take note of here: first, in nearly every case the "better" player came out on top, with the possible exception of Stats vs Jangbi (who is an absolute PvP monster when he's actually on his game). It's always annoying when a person advances from the Ro16 to the Ro8 only to face an even weaker opponent because of all the sneaking by of lackluster players with some good days or cheesy builds - however, there doesn't seem to be a single instance of that here now. Every player is taking on a substantially stronger and more dangerous opponent in the Ro8 than they faced in the Ro16.
The second thing is the racial balance. As promised in the “Forget the Past” newspost, this is already way beyond the MSL of yesteryear. Whereas last season had a Ro8 consisting of five Zergs, two Terrans, and just one Protoss - the dreaded "Swarm Season" wherein ZvZ was forever on repeat - this season has managed to tone down the Zerg dominance without going overboard and knocking them out altogether (see what happened to Protoss after the short lived reign of the 6 dragons). With a 2 Z, 3 T, 3 P split this time around - there really is no better word to sum up the current Nate MSL than "Equality".
One thing I love about the MSL compared to the OSL is the decision to reseed the Ro8 based on KeSPA rank (one thing I hate is the split Bo5's, but I'll have to take the good with the bad). As you can see in the bracket below, it almost always sets up a more exciting finals possibility than not doing it, and in this case especially. I don't want to jinx it, as with the ever-present curse of Jaedong and Bisu never meeting in a Bo5, but I really do think - if everything goes well - we might see a Jaedong Flash finals here, which would be a programing event along the lines of the Boxer/Yellow match up in the very first MSL.
Of course, knowing our luck, we'll end up with Hwasin vs Light or something. Let's drop the subject. Here's the bracket:
JaedongZvP ELO: 2234 Last Ten: 8-2 vs StatsPvZ ELO: 2094 Last Ten: 7-3
Choices shouldn’t be this easy to make this deep in a tournament, but with a Ro8 as star-studded as this MSL, Stats stands out like a sore thumb. His run so far has consisted of barely making it out of group stages by beating a slumping July twice (losing to Jaedong in the middle in an absolute rape) and then barely making it past a slumping Jangbi in the Ro16. Now I can’t completely rule him out – Bisu, after all, entered his first MSL under similar conditions (losing to his first Bo5 opponent, Nal_Ra, in the group stages, beating mediocre players to advance) and ended up making history when he won the whole thing. Could Stats surprise us all and do the same? Unlikely – there simply is no indication in the games themselves that he is more than just a capable modern toss: for him to actually take 3 games away from the best ZvP in the world right now is too big of a mental leap.
Jaedong 3-0, possibly 3-1 if he does the "lose the first game" thing
HwasinTvP ELO: 2040 Last Ten: 5-5 vs. KalPvT ELO: 2147 Last Ten: 7-3
I watched both of these players last five games to really try to get a feel for who is going to win this, and it basically boils down to how impressive you think it is that Hwasin stomped Guemchi 4-0, because other than those games he looked pretty limited. If Kal plays this at a Stork-like level, I really don't see Hwasin capable of elevating his game (especially in a Bo5, where he is a notorious choker). I simply cant bet against Kal here, especially when hes playing so strong lately. However, because some of the maps seem to have a slight Terran lean to them, and Hwasin is still a fully capable Terran, I predict he will take the game on Fighting Spirit (a map Kal lost to Really on) and lose the other three.
Kal 3-1
KwanroZvT ELO: 2110 Last Ten: 5-5 vs. LightTvZ ELO: 2139 Last Ten: 6-4
These guys are both similarly skilled and have very entertaining and compatible styles for this match up: Light plays a very conservative, standard bio-oriented TvZ, much like Flash, but unlike Flash he doesn't play it nearly perfectly enough to make Kwanro's hyper-aggressive off-balance Zerg builds useless (Hell, even Flash lost to Kwanro in the last MSL, though he is much improved now). I think if everything goes smoothly, the comfortable Terran maps and Light's solid play will strangle Kwanro out, but if he gets any kind of mental advantage (say a Game 1 win with an early pool build or 2 hat lurker) I really think Light's tendency to do poorly in the later stages of starleagues will kick in and Kwanro can pull out a victory, much like he did vs an on fire Iris 3-2 in the previous MSL. As a side note, despite my excitement for this series, neither of these players has a chance in hell of winning the whole MSL.
Light 3-1, but if it goes to a 5th game I think Kwanro will win it 3-2.
FlashTvP ELO: 2186 Last Ten: 5-5 vs. BeStPvT ELO: 2181 Last Ten: 8-2
This is easily the most anticipated Quarterfinals series, and the number one question on everybody's mind is: just how good is Flash's current TvP? This is the guy that practically invented the matchup as it's played today, and yet recent losses (and a very poor record against Best in general) are shaking his image as the Goliath-wielding destroyer of Aiur. If he comes as prepared as he is capable of being, then I simply have to give the series to him because I stand by the belief that a Bo5 will go to the stronger player, and Flash - when playing at his peak - is that player. However, with his heavy schedule and emphasis on the OSL, there is no guarantee that the real Ultimate Weapon will be showing up at all. Best, for his part, is playing amazing PvT recently and of course has the added distinction of never having lost to Flash and being one of the few Protoss who could take him down consistently. This one is almost too close to call, but I'll side with the TvP master for now.
FlaSh 3-2
Thanks for reading!
Stay tuned for more MSL coverage when we recap the Quarterfinals!
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Best > Flash, Lets go best, become what your name implies :D
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Jaedong 3-0 ofc
Light dies alot and never won except to Killer whos 2-7 vs terran. 3-0 Kwanro
Hwasin's natural enemy is Kal 3-1 Kal
3-2 Flash because it can go either way
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marcoso
Brazil818 Posts
I didn't know they reseeded the ro8!
btw.. that banner is your doing? If yes, can I use it in the small vod thread (with proper credits)?
and thanks for the analyses!
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great writeup, thanks a bunch!
can't wait for the games
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United States1865 Posts
On December 31 2009 18:34 marcoso wrote:
I didn't know they reseeded the ro8!
btw.. that banner is your doing? If yes, can I use it in the small vod thread (with proper credits)?
and thanks for the analyses!
Yeah definitely
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Not a lot of love for Stats. Poor bastard also has the luck to play Jaedong.
On December 31 2009 18:14 Atrioc wrote:
As a side note, despite my excitement for this series, neither of these players has a chance in hell of winning the whole MSL.
Pretty unprofessional, considering you don't know the who will make the semifinals.
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China3334 Posts
Cool design of the bracket!
I watched the group selection again today, which is more fun since we know who made Ro8 now. Do Jae Wook fighting! No one can throw you here and there next season.
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Woot good stuff. I've missed TL's OSL and MSL writeups during the holidays and this delivers :D
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Just a tiny nitpick, but Bisu's quarterfinal opponent in his first MSL win wasn't Nal_ra, he played him in the semis.
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jaedong 3-0, kal 3-1, light 3-2, flash 3-2
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United States1865 Posts
On December 31 2009 18:55 Jyvblamo wrote:
Just a tiny nitpick, but Bisu's quarterfinal opponent in his first MSL win wasn't Nal_ra, he played him in the semis.
Fixed, thanks.
I should have remembered that since he played sAviOr in the finals right afterwards.
On December 31 2009 18:39 MountainDewJunkie wrote:
Not a lot of love for Stats. Poor bastard also has the luck to play Jaedong.
+ Show Spoiler [Stats vs Jaedong Game 1] +
I think after watching Game 1, my analysis of Stats was justified
On December 31 2009 18:39 MountainDewJunkie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2009 18:14 Atrioc wrote:
As a side note, despite my excitement for this series, neither of these players has a chance in hell of winning the whole MSL. Pretty unprofessional, considering you don't know the who will make the semifinals.
Just calling it as the games I've watched and the stats I've looked at lead me to believe. I like watching both of these player's games, but I don't think the winner of this series is going to make it past the semifinals, especially if their opponent is Flash, and certainly not the finals (with a good chance of seeing Jaedong).
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"lose the first game thing" made me chuckle
he really does love being behind
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Light will roflstomp Kwanro. Kwanro is such an overrated player, and seomhow he has the tendency to do better than he should, so idk...
I really hope Best beats Flash, although Flash vs JD sounds good, we might as well see a 20 minutes finals which i wouldnt really like so, go Best!
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On December 31 2009 19:01 Atrioc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2009 18:55 Jyvblamo wrote:
Just a tiny nitpick, but Bisu's quarterfinal opponent in his first MSL win wasn't Nal_ra, he played him in the semis. Fixed, thanks. I should have remembered that since he played sAviOr in the finals right afterwards. Show nested quote +On December 31 2009 18:39 MountainDewJunkie wrote:
Not a lot of love for Stats. Poor bastard also has the luck to play Jaedong. + Show Spoiler [Stats vs Jaedong Game 1] +
I think after watching Game 1, my analysis of Stats was justified
Show nested quote +On December 31 2009 18:39 MountainDewJunkie wrote:On December 31 2009 18:14 Atrioc wrote:
As a side note, despite my excitement for this series, neither of these players has a chance in hell of winning the whole MSL. Pretty unprofessional, considering you don't know the who will make the semifinals. Just calling it as the games I've watched and the stats I've looked at lead me to believe. I like watching both of these player's games, but I don't think the winner of this series is going to make it past the semifinals, especially if their opponent is Flash, and certainly not the finals (with a good chance of seeing Jaedong).
going to have to completely agree with.. everything.
i think it would be tough for anyone to argue except for the long-shot stuff that sometimes happens
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Jaedong is going to crush Stats. Not that Stats is a bad player, but I assume JD will be angry after his PL 0-3 loss and might pay it with the KT toss.
Hwasin made it past the Ro16, and from time to time he can play great TvP when his timing syncs. However, I don't know if he can do it thru a Bo5, but maybe if he gains momentum, he will make it past his teammate. Anyways, odds are on Kal's side, but between teammates, you never know.
I think this series depends on how Light confronts it. I mean, it is obvious that Kwanro will be the ever-aggresive zerg who will keep bumping his head into the terran wall until it breaks down. His headbutts are capable of working even against even such a conservative player like Light, but I think he might need to play this extra defensively, especially in early game, just like Stork did.
Flash vs BeSt used to be a hell of a match up, both being macro monsters, but at this moment, Flash is like a macro godzilla and BeSt is more like the furry guy in the Disney movie. Still, if BeSt can bring some of his old self back, this is going to be some intense series.
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The graphics artist is certainly most creative!
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Pretty good first MSL appearence from BeSt
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Well, this MSL is kinda more interesting than last one's.
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Hong Kong20321 Posts
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH FLASHVS BESTT so hyped :D
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Interesting read. I hope for Flash vs JD for finals! 
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I will throw rocks at people if this ends up being a Kwanro vs Stats final....
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Best will win the MSL, I believe!
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I really think that BeSt will win... I don't know why but I really feel that best can take this and hopefully will take this series. I wanna see the good old 2 base arbs
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nice
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Please please please do your best, FlaSh!
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If Best beats Flash, could he beat JD ? 
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Predictions for this MSL
Jaedong advances
Hwsain advances
Kwanro advances
Flash advances
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On December 31 2009 23:40 Pang0lin wrote:If Best beats Flash, could he beat JD ?
imo Flash looks at this point anyways a bit harder to beat than Jaedong. If Best can stop Flash I would say he stands a pretty good chance against JD too.
Great writeup!
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Aww, I love both HwaSin and Kal... WHY DO THEY HAVE TO PLAY EACH OTHER??? [Temper Tantrum]...
I love Jaedong, but I want Stats to go on as the complete underdog, but I know Jaedong will win.
I just noticed this; people said LighT had the same curse Sea did, where he would be in Ro16 thousands of times and never be in the Ro8... Well, LighT is in the Ro8!!! Go LighT, own that Woongjin Zerg!
FlaSh EZ-PZ
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On December 31 2009 23:55 FireGuyX wrote:
Predictions for this MSL
Jaedong advances
Hwsain advances
Kwanro advances
Flash advances
Solid.
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(say a Game 1 win with an early pool build or 2 hat lurker)
Kwanrolled!
you're psycic or Kwanro is?
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If BeSt beats Flash, JD auto-wins MSL.
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beautiful article and images; hwasin fighting!
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What's with Best getting no credit for his monster PvT? My odds plugin says Flash is better overall, 60/40, but once you start looking at TvP it's basically a coinflip.
Rooting for Flash, because I'd rather see Flash/Jaedong than Best/Jaedong, but I won't be surprised either way.
--oberon
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hummm best got destroyed first game. I don't think there is any chances for jaedong to lose any living protoss at the moment. It smells good for a Jaedong vs Flash round 2!!!
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On December 31 2009 20:44 geetarzero wrote:
I will throw rocks at people if this ends up being a Kwanro vs Stats final....
lol. i want that.
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On January 01 2010 02:22 paulinepain wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
hummm best got destroyed first game. I don't think there is any chances for jaedong to lose any living protoss at the moment. It smells good for a Jaedong vs Flash round 2!!!
Spoiler....
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United States12607 Posts
kickass graphics, so creative!
go BeSt!
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Will not there be an osl update? I've already watched the games, but I love the analyses and the hype
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On January 01 2010 02:18 oberon wrote:What's with Best getting no credit for his monster PvT? My odds plugin says Flash is better overall, 60/40, but once you start looking at TvP it's basically a coinflip. Rooting for Flash, because I'd rather see Flash/Jaedong than Best/Jaedong, but I won't be surprised either way. --oberon
Seriously, everyones looking over BeSt but like i already posted, I think he might win. His pvt is better than his pvz so he would lose to jd if they met but then again i do want to see that rematch between jd and flash. Maybe JD would bust out a wedge of cheese of his own Oo who knows.
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On January 01 2010 03:12 yupyup wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2009 20:44 geetarzero wrote:
I will throw rocks at people if this ends up being a Kwanro vs Stats final.... lol. i want that.
In that case I would think stats would roll kwanro
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Wow, nice banner.
Go Kwanro, you can do it!
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On January 01 2010 05:15 MutaDoom wrote:
Wow, nice banner.
Go Kwanro, you can do it!
truth.. kwanro is the best!
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United States4991 Posts
On January 01 2010 04:09 bugsybins wrote:
Will not there be an osl update? I've already watched the games, but I love the analyses and the hype
There is intended to be one, but the time of year means some of our staff writers are unavailable (one of them just had some surgery, too).
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On December 31 2009 19:10 Geo.Rion wrote:
I really hope Best beats Flash, although Flash vs JD sounds good, we might as well see a 20 minutes finals
You don't think that's what a Jaedong vs Best finals would be?
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There's always at least one upset in every round (except with semi's/finals). I think that Hwasin will win just for upsets sake.
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Both the OSL and the MSL are much more exciting than last year's.
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On January 01 2010 05:54 MamiyaOtaru wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2009 19:10 Geo.Rion wrote:
I really hope Best beats Flash, although Flash vs JD sounds good, we might as well see a 20 minutes finals You don't think that's what a Jaedong vs Best finals would be?
Remember Best vs July?
That was when Best was amazing.
edit -- just saying I agree with you here, but it's always fun to mention Best vs July.
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ELO probabilities of winning the MSL, taking into account the winner of game 1 of the Ro8:
Flash 48%
Jaedong 31%
Kal 12%
Kwanro 4%
BeSt 2%
Light 1%
Hwasin 1%
Stats 0% (obviously some chance, but it rounds down to 0)
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how are those odds calculated? I'm rather surprised at how low Jaedong is... and how high flash is..
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Flash's Elo vs Zerg is about 100 points higher than JD's Elo vs Terran, which puts Flash at a huge advantage if they meet, especially in a Bo5. However, Jaedong's chance of making it to the final is slightly higher.
The formula for getting a percentage from two Elo ratings is found here. From there I just use basic probability.
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Jaedong wins it all.
Heard it here first 
Silly predictions aside nice article and I appreciate your thoughts/predictions. Didn't feel unprofessional or biased imo. Keep callin em like you see em!
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holy crap that bracket rules
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hwasinhwaitinghwasinhwaitinghwasinhwaiting
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I'm glad to see that the finals isn't happening at the quarterfinals anymore. Setting up the brackets like that was a great idea. I hope we have an epic finals this time, the last two starleagues have been unexciting, to say the least.
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United States10328 Posts
+ Show Spoiler +Atrioc wrote:
I think if everything goes smoothly, the comfortable Terran maps and Light's solid play will strangle Kwanro out, but if he gets any kind of mental advantage (say a Game 1 win with an early pool build or 2 hat lurker) lol psychic
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On January 01 2010 02:22 paulinepain wrote:
hummm best got destroyed first game. I don't think there is any chances for jaedong to lose any living protoss at the moment. It smells good for a Jaedong vs Flash round 2!!!
round 24-28*
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Thanks, nice article!
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This may seem stupid, but when is the flash vs best game being streamed?
I found it! >_< go go 7th jan!
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BeSt vs Kal finals.
Kal 3-1 wins MSL.
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On December 31 2009 18:22 sYz-Adrenaline wrote:
Best > Flash, Lets go best, become what your name implies :D
FAIL o.Ov
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i48.tinypic.com/287ky7k.png)
![[image loading]](http://i46.tinypic.com/2cqhdfr.png)
