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There seems to be a bit of confusion over the purpose of the medic list. I'll just try to clear it up, so we're all on the same page.
The medic list is not:
-A list of people for medics to protect
-A list of people for medics to ignore
-A list of people for mafia to hit
-A list of people for mafia to ignore
The medic list is:
-A list of people deemed important to the town.
What this effectively means is that medics should be considering protecting them, and mafia should be considering hitting them. Obviously mafia can (and likely will) hit one or more people that are not on the list. Our medics, obviously, can also protect one or more people that are not on the list. This is where mindgames begin and I hope our medics will be able to outsmart the mafia in this respect.
Also, in case you were wondering, here's what I'm up to: spending a boatload of time on behavior analysis for mafia viii >_>. No but seriously, I'm mostly waiting for the day post at this point. I have a few things I would like to say, but writing them before daybreak serves no purpose to the town (and may unfavorably alter the mafia kill list).
I guess for now I can end with:
Send in your night actions to Pyrr!
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Well well. Stacking hits or a medic prot? (if you're a medic that got a pm from pyrr about a successful protting of X, feel free to chat with X knowing they're townie-aligned as vigis cannot act tonight)
Writing up a post. . .
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Well we have gained a fair amount of information from the flips. Jimtudor's townie/BG. Knowing this we can look at:
63 for jimmy: pawsom, foolishness, wurm,
64 against jimmy: ktf, raxor2, koopie, l10f
By itself, this (it's a little excerpt from a summary of my notes) doesn't tell us much, I just thought it was interesting to bring up who was supporting who.
I was going to do a quick dip into the clues, but I just realized how very short this day post was. Yeah there's only two kills, but remember there's 7 mafia. It's likely that not all mafia are represented in this post.
Yeah this is pretty short but I wanted to toss something out there while I iron out a few problems (and while others hopefully take a stab at the clues)
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Ok
Firstly, let's discuss the issue of the missing hit. All (almost) the possibilities have been conveniently outlined for me, I just want to discuss what they mean to the town at this point.
A) Stacked Hits: Personally I find this unlikely, but then I thought that mafia hitting jimmy in the first place is pretty unlikely, so who knows, right? Maybe they have a bluesnipe-in-training who was convinced that either softer or jimmy were something more than they actually were. Maybe jimmy was protted and mafia made the right play, etc. Doesn't really matter, our course of action remains the same: analyze clues, throw out accusations, read defences, analyze support, lynch, discuss the outcome.
B) Veteran Hit: Remember when I said it could be useful to post that you've been hit if we're trying to reconstruct the kill list? If you are on the medic list or have been active enough that you feel medics are thinking about protting you, this isn't one of those times. Otherwise, it probably is, but i'm open to others' input.
C) Medic prot: Medic X protected person Y. That means Y is innocent, and X should be chatting with them right about now.
D) The other possibility: This is even less likely than A, but I'd like to throw it out there. It could be possible that they were also convinced that softer's a BG for whatever reason, and popped the third hit on me or Shikyo, which whiffed when softer didn't flip as expected. Functionally speaking, to the town this is no different than possibility A, so nothing more to say here.
To discuss the hits in general, I'd like to reiterate what Shikyo said earlier: that this was a good night for the town. Yeah me and him inch a little closer to potential death, but really, we haven't lost much. So in general, good stuff!
I'll hold off on discussing the current lynch (for a bit) and just throw a message to our vigis out there. You can act next night. So far you don't really have a reason to act, but lynches have a way of giving us a crapload of information that might make it viable to kill night2. Either way, you should PM, say, 2-4 people that you think are innocent (imo the medic list would be a good place to start) of your target if you choose to act but only if you're convinced enough of their guilt that you're willing to die for it. Note that the worst thing that can happen for the town is a fairly restrictive scenario: you pm a mafia that you're hitting a townie that was on their kill list, which they then alter to maximize deaths during the night. Else, you're swingin' (unelss i'm missing something)
Issue of double lynch: this is a toughie. Right now we certainly don't have enough information to warrant one, but by day 3 that could change. We could've lynched and/or vigi'd a red letting us re-read their posts knowing that fact, our DTs can rolecheck by then and try to sway the town, and of course we'll have the night kills to chat about. I want more input on double lynch from you guys -- what do you think?
Also, what the hell are you doing roleclaiming to me, are you retarded?
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I just want to say that I am keeping completely up to date with the thread, I've read everything including the entirety of the msn logs between crate/koops, and i've satisfied my personal thirst for analysis up to may 22 00:00 (after which i made my previous post in the thread iirc)
Just throwing that out there because I won't be able to post for the next 6 hours at least, even though it's primetime.
Also, I fully support dlynch now, so please go ahead and vote for that (admittedly I didn't even click on the voting thread yet so if you're already doing that, good job -- I know some are.)
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My main problem with lynching Jayme is that when the wagon started, there was no voices to stem the tide or shift the suspicion on someone else. Like, literally, 0. This town shouldn't agree on anything unanimously, because like 1/4 of the people here are mafia. I wouldn't be surprised (I'm expecting it in fact) if Jayme flips an apathetic townie.
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On May 22 2009 12:50 crate wrote:
What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?
I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).
At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet.
a little birdo told me that crepuscular does not point to jayme.
of course the inactives are hurting us
the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed.
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On May 22 2009 13:04 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 13:00 JeeJee wrote:On May 22 2009 12:50 crate wrote:
What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?
I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).
At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet. a little birdo told me that crepuscular does not point to jayme. of course the inactives are hurting us the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed. lol pulling an Ace?  Mind to give us a name of someone u want dead?
well, let's throw out a name like l10f.
lemme pull up his history
36 27. l10f - bandwagon, puppydog, 'large arg from minute details'(*), against jimmy&the_master, for inactives, votes, no posts 3/5##
comments?
(i won't be around to read them i'm going to sleep)
we have like what, another 24 hours of day left? ho-hum.
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aaaaaaand i'm now going to sleep
i'll let shikyo take over from my doing-nothing-in-the-thread position u_u;
i'll be more vocal in the thread now, esp over the weekend. we really can't afford too many missed lynches unless we yomi the fuck out of the mafia.
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Wombo Combo Plan
K vigis.
Here's what we can do. If you're already intent on hitting a target (there's certainly no lack of suspects: raxor2, pawsom, ilovektf, omg[rayne], zeks, etc) you may do the following: publicly claim your hit before night post. First of all, mafia cannot stop you from making the hit, even if they kill you, hit goes through. Secondly, if you live through the night *and* your target flips mafia, we know you're innocent (because even if you got lucky and managed to maphack your way into the future as a mafiosi, the actual person who made the hit would speak up)
self-correcting "flaws" with this plan: you want to, and end up hitting a non-mafia. that's great, but we can't and won't do anything from there, no matter if you are an actual vigi or a mafia posing as one. make sure to have a good target. flaw fixed.
Another "flaw": mafia claiming as vigi. that's great, but they can't hit mafia, so they can do one of 2 things: target a non-red, hit them, and then we do nothing or they can claim the hit failed. The hit can fail because of a medic or a vet. The medic conundrum: since you're also claiming your target, the medics could know to not protect it, thus if it fails, it's only because of a vet. How can mafia abuse this? Consider that mafia have a person they really want to kill, X. They can have a random mafia claim as vigi, say they want to hit X so that medics do not prot him and have a free shot. A simple solution is to make sure the target makes sense from the town's point of view. another flaw fixed
Final "flaw": vigi dying during the night. well yeah, this one's kind of a given, therefore it will be up to the medics to decide whether to prot the vigi claimor. This could be used by mafia as a ploy to keep the medics busy during the night while they hit some good targets (and one random one as per the 'claim')
And the ultimate "flaw". Vigi claims, vigi hits red, vigi lives through night, we're convinced of vigi's innocence, we pm vigi the roles and the vigi .. turns out to be an idiot. So please don't be an idiot.
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On May 24 2009 07:13 JeeJee wrote:
Wombo Combo Plan
K vigis. Here's what we can do. If you're already intent on hitting a target (there's certainly no lack of suspects: raxor2, pawsom, ilovektf, omg[rayne], zeks, etc) you may do the following: publicly claim your hit before night post. First of all, mafia cannot stop you from making the hit, even if they kill you, hit goes through. Secondly, if you live through the night *and* your target flips mafia, we know you're innocent (because even if you got lucky and managed to maphack your way into the future as a mafiosi, the actual person who made the hit would speak up) self-correcting "flaws" with this plan: you want to, and end up hitting a non-mafia. that's great, but we can't and won't do anything from there, no matter if you are an actual vigi or a mafia posing as one. make sure to have a good target. flaw fixed. Another "flaw": mafia claiming as vigi. that's great, but they can't hit mafia, so they can do one of 2 things: target a non-red, hit them, and then we do nothing or they can claim the hit failed. The hit can fail because of a medic or a vet. The medic conundrum: since you're also claiming your target, the medics could know to not protect it, thus if it fails, it's only because of a vet. How can mafia abuse this? Consider that mafia have a person they really want to kill, X. They can have a random mafia claim as vigi, say they want to hit X so that medics do not prot him and have a free shot. A simple solution is to make sure the target makes sense from the town's point of view. another flaw fixed Final "flaw": vigi dying during the night. well yeah, this one's kind of a given, therefore it will be up to the medics to decide whether to prot the vigi claimor. This could be used by mafia as a ploy to keep the medics busy during the night while they hit some good targets (and one random one as per the 'claim') And the ultimate "flaw". Vigi claims, vigi hits red, vigi lives through night, we're convinced of vigi's innocence, we pm vigi the roles and the vigi .. turns out to be an idiot. So please don't be an idiot.
So where you at?
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1-3 hours til night end I presume?
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There's a small chance of teks being mafia -- saccing one of their own to compensate for their suckiness at bluesniping (if enough blue roles get pm'd early on); the problem is that this would also require 2 things: a second inactive vigi who does not speak up fast enough and esben who didn't follow wombo combo (pm'ing peope or publicly announcing his hit -- or managing to pm only mafiosis). Just wanted to point that out although it's extremely unlikely. Given the risk/reward gain here we get from a confirmed innocent, it's a risk I'm willing to take.
So PM teks!
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Ok, I'm waiting on a PM from someone, to throw out the final recommendation vote (i might have to tip my hat to the alphabet man this game after all, obscure reference)
however, for now, please everyone do the following:
vote for double lynch and vote for omg[rayne]
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already done crate
also, pm received, decision made
to recap, our plan for today
vote for double, shikyo and omg[rayne]
i regret some of the things i've done.. jayme should not have died, and shikyo shouldn't have known as much as he does right now
time to turn this town around and pull out the golden chains of justice oft promised
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On May 26 2009 00:54 Shikyo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2009 00:36 JeeJee wrote:
already done crate
also, pm received, decision made
to recap, our plan for today
vote for double, shikyo and omg[rayne]
i regret some of the things i've done.. jayme should not have died, and shikyo shouldn't have known as much as he does right now
time to turn this town around and pull out the golden chains of justice oft promised Nope, don't vote for me. -_- Damn you, we have to hit with BOTH hits to reduce the KP. Even if you hit with the other one, they'll still have the same KP. Don't you realize this? People, don't vote for me. Or maybe you should, for the amusement factor. OH SHIT, HE WAS A GREEN? NO WAY!!! I wonder how you guys will do without me. For now, every time I have tried to stay back and observe, NOTHING has happened. You guys haven't been able to do anything. Do you really want to give the game to the mafia so easily? There are so many suspects that it should be simple enough to select the 2 correct ones, shouldn't it? People who accuse me, I know 4 blues. Why are they all alive?
Well, I can explain why 3 of them are alive. Not sure who the 4th one you're referring to is, maybe teks the vigi? If so, I can explain all 4.
Let it go, Shikyo. I didn't believe it either but too many things came together. You were on my innocent list too all the way up until quite recently, if it makes you feel any better.
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ALL THE VOTES FOR CHAOSER ARE CUTE BUT PLEASE STICK TO THE PLAN IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE TOWN ALIGNED, the last thing we need is a frickin' repeat of qatol in mafia vii.
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On May 26 2009 08:35 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Hmm... this brings JeeJee out as suspect, perhaps he is mafia and wishes us to get rid of the Sheriff and his ability to sway the votes? It would seem that we need to vote for JeeJee as well at this rate.
Such an angry post is very unlike him. I also see that JeeJee likes these bandwagons and wants them to continue...
@JeeJee:: It is rather unlikely that the same thing that happened with Qatol would repeat itself so soon. Once again.. I see nothing in Shikyo's profile that can help align him with any of the kill-clues, and by now we have had eight kills performed by mafia; assuming that at least one set of clues is a double pointer to mafia as all mafia should have at least one clue pointed to them by now (Pidgeon Hole Principle) this makes it unlikely that Shikyo is suspect.
However, looking at your profile, and how you'd hate to see tears of angst in others.. it could match any of the clues as they've all been attacks from behind which makes it easy for you not to have seen their faces and any possible tears. Additionally all those bits about fear.. You're easily more suspect than Shikyo is.
yes except i'm already a proven townie to the circle. btw you meant mayor not sheriff.
Here's something for you to chew on. Shikyo knows who both of the detectives are (even before teks sent us/him the PM before the zeks hit). So if he's a town-aligned mayor with three very powerful votes (which, as you can see can clearly stop bandwagons if he so chooses, and start new ones on random people like chaoser, but not on people like jayme). Yeah, he's totally fulfilling his campaign promise of not starting bandwagons or ending them. /rolleyes Why doesn't he come forward with this information to the town, and instead generally specifying "i know four blues". Yet we manage to lynch only townies and eight townies have died so far. Moreover, both DTs trust (or trusted, depending) shikyo, but shikyo has not spoken to either DT to make them trust each other, and there is still suspicion there and it took something completely other to make them trust each other and work together. But hey, if they both cluecheck the same fucking clue or rolecheck the same fucking person because they dont know what the other is doing due to lack of trust, that benefits the town right?
NONE OF THIS MAKES SENSE IF HE IS TOWN-ALIGNED.
DON'T DEVIATE FROM THE PLAN IF YOU ARE TOWNIE, PLEASE.
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EPT
