Mafia VIII [GG]
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If you want to run for mayor as a detective, but not as a veteran, for instance, you can't really make that play if people are already throwing out platforms pre-role. The fact that people essentially roulette mafia or dt into the mayor's office in this manner substantially fucks with the game because of how much inherent trust people give the mayor, deserved or not. | ||
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qatol, thats exactly how you want to get elected though, with a nice branding of i dont care what my role is, over, IM BLUE< IM RED WOOO VOTE ME That's kinda the point. Removes the yomi element from the mayoral voting which makes it somewhat silly. | ||
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So we have 30 total people, 1 traitor, 6 mafia total, 23 town. Mafia essentially have 7 total voting power maximum, so town auto-loses when they're under 6 people. In the worst possible scenario, mafia kill 3 per day + 1 mislynch (lets ignore double lynches b/c i'm lazy). Essentially townie numbers go 23-Current 19-Tomorrow 15-Next day 11-Day 4 7-Day 5 Add in a missed vig hit or missed double lynches and we can be out of the game by day 5. We're essentially obligated to hit correctly on day 2 or 3 or we're in the shitter. We can't fuck around and pretend that day 2-3 are clue gathering days and that we can float until day 4 and suddenly start knocking people out. What does this mean? ACTIVITY. Don't have anything to say? Think of something. If 5 pages go by and you haven't said anything you are fucking the down in the butt. I have a feeling people have been a postin' so ima post this, read and then post s'more. | ||
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For that matter, I can only see Medic or DT being useful in the mayor slot too. | ||
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That said, the primary asset of the pardoner position for the town is having it to prevent mafia from using it. The fact that BC claims he wants to use it seems like poor play on his part. | ||
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If one of the mafia's best players takes the spot we'd be in even more shit because they would likely have enough sway to get both day 1 and 2 votes. Judging by posting activity here compared to people who are signed up outside of the thread, its fairly obvious a number of people are active in PMs at the moment. There are also, by the statistics, 2 mafia posting in this current discussion. Mafia are going to be far more enticed by the option of a second place runner up prize than in non-pardoner games. ESPECIALLY since we have such low numbers and such a limited day count. | ||
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there really is no difference in the two roles this game Yes there is. Voting in a townie mayor gives us a 25% shot at killing a mafia, and voting in a mafia pardoner sets us back an entire day, which is essentially 3 extra town deaths. Either way, at this point a few people have played their poker and sent tells as to what their roles are. | ||
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Hm. Mafia pardoner only sets us back if we get the first lynch correctly. What was the game where the first lynch was pardoned? I think i'm gonna go back and check that one. No, Mafia pardoner will always set us back a day and will likely block our first double lynch or our first successful double lynch. If mayor is mafia, he will look at a split town consensus and pick a non-mafia target, or he'll have an active posting mafia member start a line of reasoning towards a non-mafia target and have people switch over to that. Either way, since there's nearly ZERO we can do to proof the choice, he can't be held accountable either because a townie mayor would be making a 1 in 4 shot anyways. If the town/mafia mayor gets/sacrifices a mafia, the proper response would NOT be to assume he's a confirmed town member either way. | ||
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Pardoning is a move akin to mass mafia voting. The move is done with the intention of rapidly precipitating an unrecoverable condition for the other side. | ||
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Lets be crystal clear: we aren't going into a 20 day game. This game is most likely going to be decided between days 4-6. Being able to set us back an entire day is not trivial. | ||
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We have to give it to someone who is good See, this is where I disagree. We have to give it to people who are long term use blues. Dts or Paramedics. Examine posting history to see if anyone is hinting they have these roles, because by my count, 2 people are already. | ||
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Also, there is no problem with the Pardoner pardoning a Mafia. If it's an obvious candidate and the Pardoner uses his skill, then the Town has 2 CONFIRMED Mafia. No, see that's the problem, we don't have 2 confirmed mafia. Pardoner can pardon anyone and we'll assume he's mafia. If he double pardons, we're down a double lynch and regardless of what we do the following day, we're down a double lynch and we're still going to be shooting at the same targets. Mafia stalling in this method can assure them extra kp during critical nights and can let them cruise to a victory. How is it 'no problem' that they REMOVE OUR ABILITY TO LYNCH? Exactly how does pardoner reveal his role to the town? He doesn't do anything as pardoner until the moment he throws down the hammer and goes "lol sry no". You're seriously underestimating how early the 'end of the game' will come with only 30 players. | ||
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But that is very difficult to do. No it isn't. Its incredibly fucking easy. I can already name 3 blue roles from the way people are acting, its pretty transperant. So the question is if someone get's pardoner should we just make the game plan for them to never use their roles power? If he's part of the town, he will never pardon. If he is mafia, he will. The only exception will be a mass voteswing from a confirmed mafia which shouldn't happen if people are active.I mean, are you blind or some shit? I've layed this out repeatedly. | ||
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Right, but why even play the game, then? Sure, it's giving up with a purpose, but it's still giving up. Green townie taking a hit is a net bonus to town because we save blues. | ||
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Maybe if you actualy laid out a plan as to how you thought it to work, I can show you where it fails. Look at people's posting histories, determine what role they're likely playing and why they're acting in the way that they are. Extrapolate from there. This is how nearly all of the blues were gutted last game. You can start turn 1. We did. It worked. a Mafia won't use the Pardoner role if the Town has a major suspect. Yes, they will. If they can delay a kill and secure the KP they need to end the game, the mafia will pardon. The mafia might even pardon a double innocent lynch in order to drain both double lynches for the cost of a single confirmed target. I've been mafia every single game until this one. I was one of the main strategy organizers during mafia 2, in which there WAS a mafia pardoner. I've been in their position and I know what they do with that position. You're assuming the pardoner would pardon the first mafia that's targetted, I'm not. I'm assuming a mafia pardoner would pardon either at a moment when doing so would effectively end the game by saving enough KP to give mafia a majority in votes, or by forcing a re-double lynch. | ||
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But to me it seems like you want these blues to start running for office, No, I want the people who are already running who ARE blue to get voted in. I want the town to look at our candidates and other players and to their best to put together a private, but coherant estimate about how people are acting and WHY they're acting that way. I want town to be cognizant that there ARE mafia running and mafia supporting mafia that are running. I want them to look and see patterns within that. Also, mafia will not focus fire this early in the game. Clues will be stacking up and they need to significantly decrease the amount of active players they are arguing against and voting against. Blues should NOT be outing themselves explicitly, especially not in PMs to either the pardoner or mayor. | ||
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You can't go into the game expecting a worst-case scenario in which Mafia finds every blue and the only way to save them is for every normal townie to pretend they themselves are. Like I said, it's giving up with a purpose, but it's still giving up. And with no logical purpose behind it at this point in the game. Oh, I don't think that trying to go for mayor is how a green would/should go about feinting blue, especially not in this case, but greens attempting to signal to mafia that they are blue does have a purpose. | ||
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Are you seriously suggesting an "every Townie for himself" deal here? No, i'm suggesting that townies put some effort into the game. But that means I'm on drugs, it would seem. I was in a Mafia family with our Godfather in office, so I know how that looks like too. Hey, me too! I'm assuming they would lay still and be happy to have a guy in the office, and not compromise it with wild pardoning Office means absolutely nothing in this game if people don't throw roles at the people in office via pm except for1- First day lynch/2 votes. 2- Pardon ability. Mafia would not just sit in office and twiddle their thumbs. They will use the advantages of office listed above to their advantage. The question is whether confirming yourself as mafia by pardoning is worth the canceled lynch/double lynch. In many cases it would be, especially as townie numbers drop. By that time the game would end, and by that time, we'd have the pardoner figured out. If not, it's irrelevant, because it's gg if such an action can swing it. You've been mafia. You know very well that it is relevant. Delaying a kill for a day saves you KP for the current night and lets you essentially hit twice in a row. I don't understand how you can play down a potentially game ending ability. I'll give you a possible game scenario: Day 1- Mislynch, no biggie. 22 townies 1 traitor 6 mafia. Night 1- 19 townies, 1 traitor 6 mafia. Day 2- Mislynch, . 18 townies 1 traitor 6 mafia Night 2- 1 medic defends successfully 16 townies 1 traitor, 6 mafia. Day 3- Proper lynch/2x lynch vote :D. 16 townies 1 traitor, 5 mafia. Night 3- Vig misses . 12 townies 1 traitor 5 mafia. traitor and mafia find each other. Day 4- 1 townie/1 mafia split 2x lynch vote. Pardonned. 12 townies 1 traitor 5 mafia Night 4- 9 townies 1 traitor 5 mafia. Day 5- 2 mafia die :D- 9 townies 1 traitor 3 mafia Night 5- 7 townies, 1 traitor, 3 mafia Day 6- we lynch the other guy pardoned. 6 townies, 1 traitor, 3 mafia. Night 6- 4 town, 1 traitor, 3 mafia. Game ends. Lets assume it doesn't and a vet was hit Night 6*- 5 town 1 traitor 3 mafia. Day 7*- Traitor lynched. 5 town 3 mafia Night 7- 3 town 3 mafia Game ends. Day 7**- Successful Lynch- 5 town 1 traitor 2 mafia Night 8- 4 town, 1 traitor 2 mafia. Basically, in this scenario, town needs to hit a mafia pretty much every night from day 3 onwards. | ||
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Hmm, I've seen this power play before. 2. Empyrean. Was Blue.Was it in Mafia 1? or 2? | ||
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Then set me up for pardoner. I don't need to know who the other blues are or any other information. Mayor should not be getting role information via pm regardless of who he is. | ||
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And quite frankly, nemy's move is not stupid, nor is it against what the town wants. nemy's move is a fairly strong gambit. If he's not lying we gain a LOT from trusting him enough to get into office. | ||
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@L and if the opposite? Well, anyone running for mayor has the same threat attached to them, only that if NemY was mafia, he's far more likely to be scrutinized and killed off early. Basically draw yourself up a prisoner's dilemma for the situation in the case that nemy is telling the truth, or if nemy is lying from his perspective and see what he should have done. This is basically how you need to analyze most of people's actions. Determine if the risk outweighs the benefits. There's a higher proportion of mafia members running for office than those who are not, yet they're all fairly kiddy gloving amongst themselves besides nemy. There's also a number of very odd trends with respect to voting and actions in this thread. I'm not saying assume the guy is innocent, I'm saying the risk/benefit ratio is substantially higher if we get him in. Don't roleclaim to him even if he is voted in. | ||
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Feel free to look at the actual benefits of office. They are limited to not being killed and fucking the town over. We have a number of very good players that can clue analyze and I'm certain they will be getting medic protection. Also, I seriously want people to go read mafia 2's section on this after checking out who was mafia. | ||
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but that also means we can leave another important player vulnerable. Important player? There are maybe 5-7 members of this game who are not very strong players. Out of the 23-25 that are strong players, equal distribution gives 5 that are mafia and 1 is the traitor. The town will have 15-17 unprotected strong players regardless of who we choose to put in.Running purely on player 'worth' means we allow far more leverage to put the strongest mafia players in office. Running on post history and in-game action gives us a slightly better shot. Also, with 3 kp, its highly unlikely that mafia stacks early unless one of these 'high value' role detector players is on their side. If they do stack, high fives all around, they're essentially crippling themselves for little gain. Mafia plays against the clue clock. The longer the game goes on, the easier it is to pick them out cluewise and the easier it is for them to make a mis-step. | ||
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Clue analyzers almost never get the protection they deserve, i honestly dunno where you got that idea You can't protect everyone all the time. If you're going off last game, the medics were pretty off the wall. Better players means better medics. Lets hope that holds true. And Bockit, for someone that was in IRC with me finding ways to fuck empyrean over during Mafia 2, you're looking at this in an awfully interesting way. Also, why you drunk so much? O_o | ||
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but you keep insisting First off, I said that once. Second, you're quoting a post made FIVE HOURS AGO. Third, you've been very active between then and here. I started off my analysis looking for blue players because I wanted to know who to support and who not to support in the mayoral running. I personally think i'm 90%+ correct on them and for 2 of them i'm not sure exactly what role they are, but its pretty obvious that some are blue and not red. Why am I not saying anything about mafia? Because I want to be more certain and want to see if clues match up with those people who I find suspicious due to behavior/lack of activity/voting patterns. Basically you're saying that I'm mafia because I'm not accusing people of being mafia on turn 1. Okay, slick. | ||
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I was out for the evening. I would have responded earlier but I got a BSOD right when i was typing my post had to leave then. I'm not saying you're mafia. I think you are perhaps just being a little to confident in your blue picks. That is all. Way to pussy out when you realize you got caught acting like a moron. The tone of your previous post is COMPLETELY inconsistent with your meek reply. You stepped up to accuse. Red colour and all. Take responsibility for pointing the finger at someone who's going to flip townside. Oh, speaking of which. When I die I want someone to post a complete list of my posts. The difference that I see between this and game 2 was that empyrean came out as dt to force town to vote him into mayor just because he wanted to be mayor. There was no "Mafia have found me I need the protection". Though similar, I see it as different enough to take caution before we decide he's a dt. Feel free to go and look how we, as mafia, influenced the discussion. If anything, the current situation, with the 2 man confirmed pms, the lowered mafia count, the lowered KP and the weaker nature of the offices (Mafia 2 office was RIDICULOUS powerful) all point towards less reason for mafia to put themselves under the spotlight. And I'm citing mafia 2 so that people can see how MAFIA will react to this situation, not to say he's 100% blue obv np. I'm saying ignore the situation as it is and remove yourself from your role. Then think about how mafia would act given this situation. How would they act to plant nemy in the first place? How would the react if he's not one of them? The second situation is already covered. You can go look at the case example which has largely been replicated here by a number of players. | ||
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But that's going to make vote analysis when we come down to the wire REALLY ANNOYING. | ||
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I was just making an observation. With a red tag. You know exactly what you were doing. Don't play coy with me. | ||
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But regardless, I think I see where you're going, and yes that does put suspicion on me, however I feel that in this game, a townie is more scared of having a mafia in pardoner position than mafia is scared of having a dt in power. Maybe people disagree with me on this, I'm open to discussion on the topic. I happen to agree with you, but judging from the majority of games mafia players tend to jump into the mayoral election very quickly to maximize bandwagoning and so that the few mafia supporters can join up in a spaced out manner. But yeah, if you recall our plan during that section, randombum was actually supposed to get mayor and 2 inactive mafia fucked up our voteswing. The question to ask is always risk/reward. Mafia gain a massive amount by popping into office; the question is how likely do you think nemy's gambit's success was? Historically its never worked. The risk? Putting a 'pseudo dt' into such suspicion with only 6 of them seems like an INCREDIBLE risk. Running an experienced player like ver or ace or caller seems like a much better bet and is far more likely given the timing. | ||
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L running around screaming the sky is falling. Excuse me? I've posted far more logical and detailed analysis than you have despite you tossing out 2 long posts full of emotionally laden 'whoa oh shit, lets lynch the douchebag' casual text. Your argument has been presented in its entirety before, but you spruced it up and added a bunch of flavor text, remember after all, when ace plays he believes that: It's not what you know, it's what you can convince people to believe. So posting the same "it was a dumb move, ergo he is mafia + we need to kill him" content was pretty spot on, but you completely ignored the counter argument. There's probably an entire's page worth of writing on the topic which you ignored. Why would you want to knock Nemy out of office? Well, for one, you're number three. You're the one that directly loses out on an office position. Two: you ver and mynock have supported each other in a circular fashion, then all seemingly dissapeared from the thread. What's more, the vast majority of supporters on your nemy position were people who bandwagoned you/ver/mynock very early without much posting like dreamflower. SUSPICIOUS? Just about as suspicious as someone calling out Plexa, which I agree was a fucking retarded vote. What's more, your rebuttal of my 'nonsense claims' echoes EXACTLY WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING. Mafia will ONLY reveal pardoner once they can end the game or when the trade off is beyond worth it. 15 player games have far less sacrifice potential than we currently have, especially if the pardoner gets tied up in clue evidence and is going to be a target in a day or two. ONCE THEY DO, however, WE ARE DOWN AN ENTIRE DAY. Your rebuttal of trying to get blues into office is that you believe you're worth more to the town than a blue role, but the problem there, as I stated earlier, is that your personal capital makes you a prime target for a mafia candidacy. What's more; you keep promoting you, ver, and Mynock, which is interesting because you three started out circularly voting for each other. Its very possible, and in my mind probable that there's at least one mafia between the three of you. The most dangerous part to you, however, is that nemY isn't going to win by a landslide at current rates: he's going to take the mafia coveted pardoner spot. Unlike in previous games where the mayor had networking ability, the only thing he has here is a double vote and his target will likely be voted upon by the town anyways, so that's that. That said, you did end up reading 8 pages in an hour and a quarter minutes, seeing as you got up around 4:45 est, right? Maybe you ought to go back and actually read instead of scaremongering. You seem to have gone to sleep around 8pm last night too, which would be around 1.5 pages ahead of where you said you started off. Either you purposely ignored the thread (good mayor work there) or you've been lying. Feel free to provide me more information. Exact times, if you would. So let me interject: if one of you is mafia, which is likely, you'd act exactly how mafia acted in mafia 2, which is exactly how you're acting now. Its what we did before. Its what I'd do if I was mafia. | ||
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Accusing people left and right I haven't accused anyone. I simply pointed out that its HIGHLY LIKELY that there is a mafia candidate in the group of candidates Ace is in. Even his own analysis points towards this. Can I explain it? Sure, mafia typically enters the mayoral race very early and supplants themselves with a few mafia seed supporters to get the ball rolling, then they shut up very quickly. Dont' believe me? Look up your history. That means out of your group, due to the simple fact that you guys are running for mayor (regardless of the collusion between you) that it is likely one of you is mafia. Ace can suggest all the checks in the world, but he is driving AWFULLY hard for you or him to be exempt from said checks. More to the point, we have an unusually large number of checks, and if nemY IS a dt he will: 1- Brush it off 2- Checking mayoral candidates will fall to a single DT, who will be largely useless if the mafia candidates actually got office. Essentially if ace is mafia, his plan nullifies both DTs. Thanks for letting me point that out. Peace. | ||
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Your arguments about Pardoner are null and void because we can't determine anyone's roles yet. What? Are you fucking retarded? HOW DOES DETERMINING ROLES HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH GAME FORMAT? Oh, it doesn't. If I was worried about losing the election that bad of all people why would I go after nemy? I dunno, why don't you look at your own statement in the voting thread: ME OR MYNOCK, NEVER NEMY. Looks like you're pretty worried, and it looks like you're worried about nemy. I'm supporting Mynock and Ver because I feel they are the other 2 best candidates. Every game we have people like you who question why I'm doing something, and you all come off looking like idiots. The fact that you have a 'feeling' doesn't make the circular collusion of three mayoral candidates any less suspicious. The fact that your second sentence is essentially "i'm good, so never question me" doesn't either. That's nice that 1 of the 3 of us might be mafia. It's also nice that 6 out of the 30 people playing might be also. What's your point? I made my point. Feel free to read, champ. Oh, you don't like doing that because dealing with actual arguments would show that you're COMPLETELY FUCKING FULL OF SHIT? I can't say I didn't see that coming. Your poor play essentially cost the town the game last time around yet you think you're immune from scrutiny. There is no danger to me. Which means you wouldn't need a position in office so bad, wouldn't be cutting your dota match short and would be quite a bit less hysterical, no? There is no mafia coveted Pardoner spot - any of the 2 will do. Stop making up these grand ideas in your head. Proven false empirically. Your "ifs" are wrong because none of us play this game like you. It shows. How exactly are you in a position to make an "us" statement about another two players? Given that you admitted one of them or more could be mafia why do you think you have a greater insight into their actions?I don't know exactly what time I started reading the thread or exactly what time I went to bed. But if you want to dissect it till your blue in the face go ahead - I'm innocent and don't have to worry about anything. See unlike nemy, I haven't lied about anything. And unlike you I'm actually analyzing whats going on now and not some made up scenario that we have no control over. So you refuse to give full disclosure? I have evidence putting you at a few places at a few moments, between TL log ins, dota replays and messages in the dota clan chat. I'm not pointing the finger at you, but if you're innocent you don't dodge shit like this. If you're mafia, you know you're in danger of tripping up. But yes, I like how you believe you're analysing what's going on, yet no one else could possibly be unless they agree with your view. That's typically your style, though. Its also the type of unbacked up bullshit that killed the town last game. Value playstyle right there. Got anything else you want to uselessly add to the thread? Any more lightweight accusations you want to make against The Three Musketeers? No way, man, I love that light and fluffy chocolate bar. | ||
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And why would he brush it off? Explain. Uh, no. You were likely to get checked because of your posting behavior either way, Ver is likely already in office and if one of you is godfather (+ push the other in) you'd make for a FANTASTIC game ender right here. And if I were mafia and I suggested this plan then SURELY I wold have done it after I made it into office right? Why would you brush it off? "oh, nemY WAS a dt, our bad". Do you think you'd offer yourself up to get killed? If you're townie you don't want to waste a useless lynch to revenge. If you're mafia you dont' want to die. No one's intention is to die. You will cite his poor play and say you were justified in acting the way you are, and I'm not saying that's wrong, but I'm saying you don't offer up any shred of culpability by doing so. | ||
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Obviously determining roles is the aim of the game - but we are still at Mayoral elections. None of us can determine anything right now. Oh shit how did you miss this? You even quoted it but read it wrong. You were talking about Pardoner intentions and usage, a topic which can be examined purely through the rules of the game. If you were referencing my suggestion that we need blues in office ver proved rather dramatically last game that you can sniff out blues very accurately on day 1. 2.) Worried about the election != worried about nemy. I'd love to be in, but hey if Mynock and Ver made it can't say I'd be sad. I'm not that worried about the election. But yea your right - I am worried about nemy which is exactly why I've been making my case against him. So you admit you are worried, which is a complete contradiction of your previous stance. I'm not contradicting myself. You are. Think about it. 3.) circular collusion? lol ok Don King. Ver has been pretty much silent, and only myself and Mynock have really supported each other. Stop trying to take wild guesses. Uh, you yourself have called the group 'the three musketeers' and Ver actually was posting for a bit while you were sleeping. Moreover, the vote record DOES NOT LIE. each of you voted for one other. I am immune from scrutiny. Because I'm innocent 1. No you aren't. 2. By your own admission we don't know that. Why do you assume people should assume you're innocent? If that's the case everyone should have just PMed you their roles at the start of the game and that would have been a good play. Frankly, for someone harping on nemy about poor play, you're doing a lot of it yourself. How would you know the Mafia covet the Pardoner spot unless they themselves stated it? Okay, lets assume pardoner instantly wins the game. I think mafia would go for it. See what I did there? The rules of the game describe the advantages and pitfalls of certain actions. Do you think mafia would NOT want the pardoner spot? Do you think they'd want mayor more?It's an US statement because playing the game with Ver and Mynock so many times I KNOW none of us play the game like you. It's just that simple - nothing beyond that. Yet by your own admission you've stated that good players will not have a style. Ver's 'afk townie' method this game, for instance, is something he said he wouldn't be doing, and has only performed while previously mafia, yet you believe that you can call their style even if they're not the same allegiance as you? Bad choice of words, and a telling one. What full disclosure is there to give? Read my fucking posts. Do you refuse to give the information? Y/N. As you put it. Go ahead champ. I wouldn't fucking TELL YOU what information I have if i'm trying to cross reference the information I've got with your statements to check for inconsistencies. I mean, you should know that, you aren't an idiot. | ||
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L when you quote someone could you please leave in who you're quoting with the message? Sometimes you quote from the middle of a paragraph and it's annoying to go back and figure out where it came from. I don't wanna have to do that again if I decide to re-check all your posts. I honestly don't know how to do that. I've never done it in all my posting on TL as far as I know. If you can tell me how i can pull a quote out with the name and time attached I'd be grateful. L, to make it a bit more clear, the problem both Ace (I think) and I have here, is that you're dealing with some virtual Mafia game's Day 7 No i'm not. I'm dealing with right now based on what will be dangerous later. I don't even understand how you can morph anything I've been saying for the past 10 pages into that besides for a single post where i wrote out a fairly balanced game with a shitty pardon that resulted in a quick endgame and most likely a mafia victory despite fairly good accuracy by town. Completely for demonstration purposes and not how i think the game must unroll. | ||
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Wouldn't be the first time it happens this game. | ||
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You uh, press the "quote" link on the right hand side at the top of the post. But then I can't see other posts T_T firefox will eat more of my precious memories. | ||
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On May 18 2009 04:41 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: You uh, press the "quote" link on the right hand side at the top of the post. Wait, I think i got this shit. | ||
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On May 18 2009 04:40 Ace wrote: what is there to discuss? I'm so lost :/ the entire post you no'd. also feel free to disclose. C u after game. Grief testie plz | ||
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Predictable fuckers. | ||
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Fantastic bullshit. I got to a party and people fucking lay down and let the three most suspicious players of the game dominate the discussion. | ||
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Mynock < -- from Ver Ver <-- from Showtime! | ||
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Mynock? I'm pretty sure I was pointing a "that bitch is suspicious" finger at him. | ||
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And I've said multiple times that I think that the way people voted for showtime was a bit off, not to the point of being mafia, but there was something very odd with a 4 vote surge all within 2 hours of each other then everyone gave up and showtime posted minimally. | ||
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When people who I think are mafia act exactly like I'd act if I were mafia, predictability becomes worth a bit more as a BS detector. | ||
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not about how good you are to snipe someone Uh, did you actually read the platforms? The main recurring argument put forward prior and post-nemy by ace/ver/mynock was "i am good at this game, ergo vote for me". | ||
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Contradiction. You staying silent until post vote is not maximizing the town's strengths either. nemy's actions have kicked off a flurry of discussion that was great for collecting data. he's not the only player who revealed his role. This is very true. | ||
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The 'compromise' position which is more likely is that Ace does have tells (and between games I'd agree more with MBH here, that there are significant trends in his actions, his claims, and his methods). If that's the clue, either you trusted ace enough to let himself claim as such, or you noticed the logical rupture in his self promoting arguments and paid them heed. Either way, both positions are mutually exclusive. And as for figuring me out, I'm glad you know I'm innocent . | ||
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Do we still want to do that? Can we still do that? | ||
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Yeah a DT revealed that should have never revealed himself or just a traitor. So you punish the town because a blue played in a manner you don't approve of instead of make the best you can with the lemons you've got? Nemy performed a gambit. Town should reply by considering the risk/benefit of the situation instead of saying "i don't like the way you played". Specifically they need to look at how likely it is that Ver/Ace/Mynock triforce has a mafia in it. Ver admits that the timing of their declarations leads him to believe that there IS a mafia in the trio (iirc, will check soon), yet the town blindly charges on forward egged on by the people who are most suspected of being mafia. I had this open in another window but forgot to hit post :o. my bad. Quote is tricode top of page 30. | ||
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I really hope you are not just basing this whole thing on one line i said. I had other reasons such as i believe more skilled players would benefit us more then Nemy and such. I'm not.A number of players stated flat out that they believed that nemy was not mafia, yet voted against him, or swung votes at the last minute. How is he punishing the town? Nemy played dumb, and in a game this level he got caught in a big lie. If someone believes Nemy is innocent, but votes against him, they are doing so either out of spite, which a number of players did and admitted they did. Go read the tricode post.Yeah a DT revealed that should have never revealed himself or just a traitor. Somehow the fact that the DT played contrary to his view of how a DT should play makes it acceptable that we now have a DT in the open if he was correct. | ||
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Your number 1 problem is that you seem to fully believe he is DT. 1- no I don't. I believe that the likeliness that he is is very high, but I'm not 100% sure of anyone. I have weighed the risks against the benefits and come to my conclusions that way.Number 2 problem is i never voted for Nemy. Number 3, Even if Nemy is innocent, there is a lot of us that are innocent! 23 to be exact. 2- Go look at my post. I never said you did. I said a number of people did, not you. What you did was state that he's either a DT or traitor, and that even if he is a dt that its irrelevant because he played poorly. 3- If Nemy is innocent, he is 99% likely to be a DT. There 'is' a lot of DTs. 2. number 4 what I did is not out of spite, it's more out of picking the best option IMO. It's like you care less about our skillful players that really help town get through the game to Nemy who just has a blue role...and that's even if he does have a blue role. 4. Care about our skillful players? There are skillful players on both sides of the fence. Being skillful does not mean you are exempt from scrutiny. I care about the town's wellbeing, not the feelings of some players who have convinced the town that they are superior players. So that's where we differ in our opinions, and I've laid out the divergence between our thinking before. Again, this is another instance of the "we're so good, so you must obey us" argument. Ace went as far as to say that he's immune to scrutiny because of his past performance in games. Does that even sound remotely logical from the point of view that Ver proposed in his first large post? Number 5, this Nemy thing about him not being able to get into office is over. Get over it. Look to what we should do next. Killing nemy and the quality of the people in office haven't magically disappeared. I specifically asked people to talk about who we should lynch, yet no one took that question up. If you're town, you want activity, yet this is portion of your post is a blatant "shut up". You don't suggest a new topic of discussion, yet I have, So: even your condemnation here rings hollow. You're criticizing me for something you're MORE guilty of than I am. If you don't trust me, you want me to post more so you can see if i trip up. If you do trust me you want to see me trip up other people. Either way, more data is more power for town, and this thread is the largest repository of town knowledge. All other things being equal, more discussion gives us more potential to win. | ||
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I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures? From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play. The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route? After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1. The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him. Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material. | ||
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Clear instance of punishing the current town for making a play he doesn't approve of. | ||
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Contradiction again. | ||
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You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered. You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement. But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me. | ||
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On May 19 2009 06:55 LucasWoJ wrote: Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself. ^_^ Ace obviously has a stylistic flair in his writing, and an obvious tendancy to make emotional rather than logical arguments. How people react to me calling them out, however, is very telling because it looks like we're 'fighting' and that generally makes people pick sides. Malongo, i did the cute quote thing. Start posting content you douchebag. | ||
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On May 19 2009 06:58 Caller wrote: i see what you did there if that is what you genuinely feel, then I don't understand why L is so diametrically opposed to it. L, you would get to see Ace's opinion, no? And if you really are opposed to what Ace is saying, this would be a good opportunity to check out any suspicions (probably none, imho). I believe that Ace this round genuinely (for once) has town interest at heart here. But I still don't know if killing nemy is a good idea, partly because he could be traitor/DT (I doubt he's mafia) and partly because we're already prejudging on something we haven't completely clarified yet. I already stated that one of the aims of me being so active is to produce reactions and data for the town. The content or 'rage' or whatever that you guys are picking up is largely a method of determining what type of data comes out of the thread. If I create a fight, people pick sides. This tells us something. The content of their defence and offence tells us things too. | ||
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On May 19 2009 09:27 Malongo wrote: Congratulations L, please use that method from now on. Are you trying to get a reaction from me? Unfortunately I truly dont understand the term "douche" or "douchebag" to its fullest. At best I can guess its something like "not friendly" but wordreference says its something like "vaginal shower" :S. Theres not too much content to add really, since we must wait for the day post. I already said what I think about Nemy, in this case ignore is the best we can do. About the medics I already said that I think they are quite experienced this time (I think I can point to one of them) and the veterans are indeed waiting to take at least a hit. Yes, I called you a vaginal shower. Was rather lighthearted. But there is still plenty to talk about, and plenty of value in talking. Also, i'm getting the hang of this quote button. | ||
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On May 19 2009 08:36 Ver wrote: I just got back. Sorry guys I was at my honors defense (Yes I passed :D). Last night I didn't want to spend any more time on mafia than I did and being feverish I just did a coin flip bo7 between Infinity21 and Amber[light]. Infinity won 4-1 so that was that. I had a few more ambitious lynches but I didn't have the time to contact Ace and I figured he'd be okay with lynching a noncontributer. 0cz3c your list sucks. Not only is it useless but contradictory and inaccurate. At the very least I want the colored text back! I'll update mine in a bit though. Despite Ace's silly criticism based on some newbie implementation I still believe it is a valid way to make my opinions known and inject some chaos. I thought the idea was awesome when I saw you post that thing last game and so far it's been quite successful ^_^ Not much else to say for the night though. I disagree with Ace's dt list in needing to RC those three mayoral candidates but that can wait till later when we have more evidence. The most pressing thing I want to know is how many mafia candidates ran. 0, 1, or 2. I originally thought there were 2, Mynock and Ace. One of my associates thought that as well. But Ace's response to me calling him out was exactly what I expected if he was innocent. Mynock, not so much, and I'm pretty questioning of him still (imo primary dt suspect). The useful part with this is that once we know we can clear everyone else because mafia is not going to have that many candidates running. Game history says that any time a mafia candidate has run, they have always gotten a position. Randombum got pardonner in mafia 2, MTF got mayor in mafia 4, and Qatol got mayor last game. My vote switching shenanigans were in an attempt to isolate the mafia voters or figure out potential mafia candidates. I'm still not certain on Ace/Mynock and they have to prove themselves but I feel a bit better than I did before. Caller BC and Showtime are almost assuredly innocent based on votes. If anyone has any insight on this I'd much appreciate it. Town needs to talk more, as I was pretty annoyed that almost nobody responded to my queries for targets last night. L is doing a great job of adding confusion and chaos while distracting us from our tasks. As for tomorrows lynches, more will be clear when we see who's dead. Mafia either have to blue snipe or target who they feel is the most dangerous. But if they do the latter the mafia will reveal themselves quickly (this is why I only blue sniped last game). You ran for mayor. You attempt to side implicate me despite saying town needs activity and I'm the main catalyst for it. If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. As for confusion, feel free to look at how 'switch happy' the voting base was. Quite frankly, if you assume that 1, 2 or 3 of you/ace/mynock are mafia, and that any innocent member is being set up for a fall to make the guilty parties look better, all of the posts from you, mynock and ace make perfect sense. It made sense when you circularly voted for each other. It makes sense with the fake trap you set for ace. It made sense when you promised activity then provided none. It made sense during ace's argumentation. It made sense during mynock's argumentation. What's more, most of your analysis has been a DIRECT copy of things I've said, yet you point a finger at me for causing confusion for advocating, largely, the same logic you are. You're a smart player, so you're obviously baiting me or baiting someone else with these statements. | ||
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On May 19 2009 08:43 0cz3c wrote: Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy) 1. Caller - 36% 2. Incognito - 34% 3. scamp - 14% 4. scaramanga - 0% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 31% 6. fishball - 19% 7. nemy - 78% 8. fusionsdf - 67% 9. Ver - 100% 10. bockit - 0% 11. plexa - 70% 12. camlito - 82% 13. showtime! - 20% 14. mikeymoo - 45% 15. dreamflower - 47% 16. ace - 9% 17. infundibulum - 43% 18. vivi57 - 38% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 35% 21. amber[light] - 39% 22. rebirthoflegend - 0% 23. MTF - 0% 24. 0cz3c - 0% 25. infinity21 - 87% 26. heavonearth - 95% 27. Tricode - 0% 28. Malongo - 0% 29. MrBabyHands - 69% 30. L - 63% 31??? LTT 1% Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points) 1. Caller - 64% 2. Incognito - 66% 3. scamp - 86% 4. scaramanga - 100% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 69% 6. fishball - 50% 7. nemy - 36% 8. fusionsdf - 70% 9. Ver - 0% 10. bockit - 100% 11. plexa - 17% 12. camlito - 43% 13. showtime! - 19% 14. mikeymoo - 61% 15. dreamflower - 54% 16. ace - 91% 17. infundibulum - 85% 18. vivi57 - 42% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 68% 21. amber[light] - 59% 22. rebirthoflegend - 100% 23. MTF - 100% 24. 0cz3c - 100% 25. infinity21 - ~30% 26. heavonearth - 23% 27. Tricode - 100% 28. Malongo - 100% 29. MrBabyHands - 25% 30. L - 34% 31???! LTT - 99% Voters for showtime and showtime himself are rather explicitly ranked between 0 and 20%. Coincidence? | ||
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On May 19 2009 10:47 L wrote: You ran for mayor. You attempt to side implicate me despite saying town needs activity and I'm the main catalyst for it. If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. As for confusion, feel free to look at how 'switch happy' the voting base was. Quite frankly, if you assume that 1, 2 or 3 of you/ace/mynock are mafia, and that any innocent member is being set up for a fall to make the guilty parties look better, all of the posts from you, mynock and ace make perfect sense. It made sense when you circularly voted for each other. It makes sense with the fake trap you set for ace. It made sense when you promised activity then provided none. It made sense during ace's argumentation. It made sense during mynock's argumentation. What's more, most of your analysis has been a DIRECT copy of things I've said, yet you point a finger at me for causing confusion for advocating, largely, the same logic you are. You're a smart player, so you're obviously baiting me or baiting someone else with these statements. particularly If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. Makes more sense if it reads: If someone suspects you because you ran for mayor, by your own logic that puts you (and your post) on the 'high' suspicion list. The qualities in your post add up very well against you. Rather quick writing and I wanted to get to that list point because I've been looking very closely at the members of that rapid showtime vote explosion (for obvious reasons). | ||
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Being that he's been targeted on the first Night of just about every Mafia game he's been in I'm sure that pattern isn't changing anytime soon. Mafia motivation being..? | ||
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Additionally, this game has such a high concentration of "danger" on both sides (or should, some 'veteran' mafia players are playing pretty poorly ^_^) that I don't think that'll be a useful source of motivation, and also why I didn't think "danger" was a good heuristic to use for electing office. | ||
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^_^ | ||
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On May 19 2009 11:30 Ace wrote: oh really? Who's playing poorly? Point them out! : D I've been doing so. for 20+ pages now. | ||
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Also Incognito correctly pointed out that I said 0, 1, or 2 not 1,2, or 3 mafia which is what L somehow got? Ver, you're smarter than that. I consider you a suspect. You, obviously, do not. Somehow got? Quit the stupid act. We both know you're smarter than that. | ||
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also: Lucas PMed me. From: LucasWoJ Subject: mafia Date: 5/17/09 00:01 If you're having a discussion with Ver, look for tells to see if he has a similar role this game to last game (he was GF). Him running for mayor doesn't sit right with me and should be approached with caution. One, if not more, of Ver, Ace, Plexa, MTF, or Incognito just about have to be mafia. Thoughts? | ||
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To: LucasWoJ Subject: Re: mafia Date: 5/17/09 05:13 1 or 2 people running for mayor are mafia, guaranteed. Whatever happens I don't think we should be funneling info to them. His statement that he's likely to be killed early is somewhat true, but the vast majority of players in this game are on the same level of dangerousness that he is. Either way, mayoral elections always make my skin crawl. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: If you're having a discussion with Ver, look for tells to see if he has a similar role this game to last game (he was GF). Him running for mayor doesn't sit right with me and should be approached with caution. One, if not more, of Ver, Ace, Plexa, MTF, or Incognito just about have to be mafia. Thoughts? | ||
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He is mayor after all. Remember when Qatol was mayor? He got mad PMs even though he wasn't confirmed also. And this is why i wanted us to use probable blue players over 'good players'. But despite bolding that shit and writing it everywhere for the past TWENTY FUCKING PAGES and people ignoring this, now half of the previous detractors of my position have turned 180 degrees. Setting up red herrings because office isn't in question? Lol. Number 1 need town has right now? CLUE ANALYSIS. Get some potential targets, we'll mesh that with the behavior analysis. Remember: attach clues to people, don't attach people to clues. | ||
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this kind of ad hominem is not helping.. Did you read what he wrote? That's not how the game's rules work. All night actions happen at the exact same time. All of them work. You can't kill a vig in order to prevent his hit, nor can a vig drop the kp of mafia to reduce the amount of kills that happen. Medics can't be killed to remove their protection during that night. | ||
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And don't fucking pull the activity card on me of all people. That said: VOTE FOR A DOUBLE LYNCH there is no reason to wait and let potential mafia kills get away from us. More lynches means more reduction of KP means more success. Once people agree to that, I have a few more things to say. | ||
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HAHA ITS A JOKE :D. | ||
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If i can make a suggestion: When googling names, be sure to use google.com instead of google.yourcountry. | ||
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Nemy is close to 99% innocent if the other DT sent that picture, or a similar one. | ||
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There's a better way to go about this. | ||
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Double Lynch for what. No need to rush anything. Dropping KP as fast as possible is in the town's favor. Double lynching means we have data from day 1/2/3. You don't vote for a double lynch the same way we declared double lynches in Mafia 2: you do it before they're needed so they're available when the lynches need to go through. | ||
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So lets examine our situation, shall we? Town has no fucking leadership. I am going to be the town's leadership then. Here is my plan: Tonight we lynch Ace, the vigilante hits Ver or vice versa. Why? Examine the content of their posts until now: For all their crowing about their own worth as players, neither has clue analysed or done anything except the following: Turn on each other post-elections. Both recognize office likely has a mafia installed. Both only really tried to drive the point home after they were actually 'safe' in office. What does that tell me? If I was either of them and we had secured our spot, I'd look at what the town is saying. Town is saying that its obvious that there's a mafia all up ins office, so if we're both mafia, might as well limit the damage by coming out hard against the other person there. Develop red herrings after the primary objective is complete. Is this consistent with the voting records and the style of play both players have been using? YES. Ace has been using an emotional style of writing and making huge logical missteps. He's been asking questions to answers he already knows and pretty much acting obtuse when the conclusions supported start to point against him. No real logical defence. No real arguments. Well, until now at least, Ace will have to reply to this. Ver? Well, I'll let the thread speak for itself. Reneg on campaign promises, don't consult the town for a lynch target despite people asking to vote on it, admission he's talking in PMs with ace about shit like this already and has some wacky underground network going on. Lets examine the clues: 2 possibilities. One is that we only have 3 mafia represented. The other is that we have all 6 mentioned, but some have only 1 line attached to them. This would be consistent with a few games. If that's the case, there are multiple pointers towards Ace, Dreamflower and Ver. Go and Wikipedia ACE. It is a hardware company based in the united states. This is why I suggested that google.com be used instead of google.country. google.ca gives me the canadian association of electricians or some shit. There's quite a bit more solid evidence here, but tbh I'd rather get this post out as activity picks up rather than after the bangwagon has been formed. Now, lets move forward and examine voting records. Ace - 6 ------- 0cz3c <-- from Ver Ver <-- from Caller Malongo <-- from Fishball mikeymoo <-- from Mynock MrBabyHands HeavOnEarth <-- from Abstain Scamp <-- from nemY Bockit <-- from Mynock Mynock < -- from Ver Ver <-- from Showtime! Tricode <-- from Mynock EVERYONE but 1 changed? Both MYNOCK AND VER, two people I've been pointing at changed to swing nemY out? Wow, no suspicion here, right? Malongo was pretty succinct about this last game: If you're a townie, you really don't need to switch your vote ever. This is why I suggested people wait: get all the facts coming out before making a choice rather than swinging vote totals around. This rule CAN be abrogated at times, but like.. 5/6? Seriously guys? Tricode is the finishing slot here: why the fuck is he switching members then claiming that nemY is most likely a dt, but that he played bad. Time for some Ace-like in between paragraph expletives: WHAT THE FUCK. Ver - 8 This is Ver's list. Ver is mafia. Mynock popping up on the top there. Dreamflower, heavily under suspicion now, also up there as a bandwagon starter. Lucas voted for Ver when it was obvious he would win, and suggests he trusted him -> role reveal after election. ------- BloodyC0bbler Caller Scaramanga Mynock 0cz3c dreamflower RebirthOfLeGenD Vivi57 iNfuNdiBuLuM Incognito <-- from Showtime Malongo <-- from Ace LucasWoJ <-- from Mynock More importantly, in contrast with Ace's crowd, this voting block is relatively unchanged. People who voted Ver stayed Ver. What does this mean if Ver is mafia? What does this mean if Ver is innocent? Which brings me to my next point: Information. Say we fuck up a lynch. Between Ace and Ver I see nearly zero difference in terms of the quality of information gained upon kill, but either one would give us a mountain's worth in total. Why? Well, its fairly obvious, both are positioned very interestingly in terms of votes and in terms of their actions taken in the thread. If we find out what colour the flip, it tells us a lot about the other people in this drama. My final point has to do with timing: Why hit Ace over Ver tonight? The simplest answer? Because I don't trust the vig to hit the one we aren't lynching. Ace is the pardoner. If he is mafia and we elect to hit him and dreamflower and both turn up red, he is going to pardon dreamflower. If dreamflower is green? he's going to pardon dreamflower OR ANYONE ELSE who's been voted for lynching when he dies. Why? We're going to spend the next turn killing them regardless. -1 lynch. -time. +kp. That's not what we want. Simply put: We cannot lynch the pardoner during a double, ever or safely double lynch until he's dead, and we need to start double lynching asap because time is against us and we NEED to cut their KP. Time is ALWAYS against town. | ||
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Ver - 8 ------- BloodyC0bbler Caller | ||
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Keep the fuck up. If you're a mafia pardoner ANY lynch of you during double is an autopardon. | ||
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In other news: Lynch Ace, vote for Double Lynch | ||
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Hilarious. And btw ace. The hardware thing? Its the first google.com hit for ace. | ||
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LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Desperation much? | ||
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This would be it. But remember, you have no consistent playstyle, right? | ||
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Lynch Ace + vote for double Tomorrow we do Ver/Dreamflower. Vigilantes If we dont' lynch Ace tonight (and get ver instead), hit him. | ||
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I think you can agree if you're town that they're better targets than I am. | ||
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Why would the town assure themselves a loss by wasting another day killing a highly active town member. Office means nothing for the town: pardons can only hurt us, mayor only has 2 votes. I personally think that only one is mafia at this point, but I can't assure that we kill him off efficiently unless we have pardoner killed in time for the double lynch. Also why are people voting after being inactive? HeavOnEarth is active enough to know better, doesn't vote for double lynch, votes for PLEXA of all people. bit suspicious due to activity? Sure, but I checked his posting record on TL and he's been a ghost EVERYWHERE not just here. | ||
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BC, you've been one of Ver's biggest 'shadow' supporters. Your activity is low, you voted for him almost immediately after his election. If you want to know the truth, I mailed Qatol that I was VERY suspicious of the showtime vote train and said it multiple times in this thread. I'm not saying showtime is innocent but its time to get this house in order and cut some assured KP instead of fucking around. | ||
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We can't double lynch safely till ace is dead and Ver DOES have a lot of suspicion hanging around him. The combo of rape and looking is also REALLLLLLLY incriminating in killer 3 clue. So what do you do? Secure 2x lynch and hit the suspects after that's accomplished. | ||
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Killer 3: was the dude who gazed around and then raped w/ rake. | ||
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That said, what do you think we should do? Double? Y/N Ace right now? Y/N Vig hit Ace if we don't lynch Ace? Y/N | ||
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wanted reactions is that the reason you voted like a retard too? And ace, google and wikipedia have been used for clues in the majority of games. This is not new. This is not novel. This is probable. I think you're angry that we figured out you + hardware. Also, BC, you say you're up for double lynch, but you aren't voting for it. You're also voting for malongo out of left field with no real explanation. You're also fine with supporting Ver's reasoning, but then don't want to lynch anyone in office even if it is the other person in office despite the fact that the vast majority of people believe something is crooked with at least 1 of our office runners. | ||
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My vote is actually currently on plexa for inactivity/clue linkage to day 1. I changed it earlier, as for double lynch, Give me a viable second target for it and you will get your vote, neither ace nor ver get a vote to die from me. let the mafia off the one whos legit, and kill the other later if one is red and other green. Wait for mafia to confirm some mafia? No. I'll clear the way for double lynches right away. Double lynch does not happen today. It happens tomorrow. You prepare in advance. Do YOU think we'll have 2 good targets tomorrow? If so, vote for it. More importantly, why are you saying "give me a viable second target" when you already said double lynching tomorrow was a good idea? Doesn't add up, does it? | ||
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Oh wow. | ||
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There are 2 methods of having hit both BGs. One involves claiming, the other involves luck. Lets examine each. Assume both BGs claim to a mafia office bearer. Mafia know they have 2 non-vet likely non-mediced blue targets. Abusable. Mafia have no reason to fear losing BG protection: BGs protect against them, after all. If both office members are sitting there they have nothing to fear, but can attempt to draw the last medic to them. If they DO hit them, there really shouldn't be much they can't deny: They say it was obviously luck. They say its not in their best interests to hit them. Etc. They use the exact defence you would: Its so obvious that they wouldn't have done it. Well, not really. Ver and Ace also have a proven history of in this thread of that type of behavior. Most obvious instance? Ver's attempt to 'juke' ace with that incrimination and retraction. If only one member is mafia (lets say ace) he can push the event as a clear sign the other member in office is mafia in order to buy time. This corresponds exactly with the events in the thread thusfar. Assume just one did. Same result with a bit of luck. Even less risky. Far more secure in their hits. Assume both are luck: Both office members suspect each other regardless and even amongst themselves they admit there's likely mafia there. The BG kills have ZERO implication on the office running, but the suspicion remains. | ||
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On May 20 2009 09:01 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Nemy is always retarded, thats not a change from anything before. Yes, its ballsy play, but for day 2? Ace is acting like a rabid dog, but one who would prefer to be in control than being put down. Ver is playing a similar style to when hes been town. His red play is different, but hey, people can change playstyles, thats cool. As for blue sniping, that isn't as surprising as 2 bgs, bg's you can't behavioural analyze so wow, that means both ace and ver WHO specialize in it if red got lucky? too low of chances mate. Chances of both knowing the roles are even lower. This is a carbon copy of his play last game as godfather. You ran the game. You saw his inactivity. Qatol saw through him first day. | ||
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Mainly qatol was about to quit the game, bitched and moaned and the two figured eachother out there, but hey, what do I know about my game, I only stayed insanely active knowing what x did when. Ver was also afk IRL, but that doesn't change the fact that he ran on activity, stated he would be active and his inactivity was why Qatol claimed to HIM. Qatol claiming in the first place was due to the bockit death scenario, but WHO he roleclaimed to was 100% a result of the void where ver should have been. | ||
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L fears I'll pardon someone (like Ver) which would be retarded on my part but he keeps ignoring it. L fears you'd pardon dreamflower if we use a double lynch on Ace/Dreamflower day 3 after killing Ver today. And that would be 100% logical if you're mafia because confirming yourself would do nothing: You'd already be the target of the double lynch. I've explained this to you twice. | ||
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On May 20 2009 09:21 Scamp wrote: I trust Ace more at this point because Ace hasn't done anything fishy in my opinion. I don't like the way he's going after Ver but I can't deny I've had some suspicions about Ver as well. Right now I suspect that Ace isn't mafia and is pushing that hard because of it. However, I'm still not convinced that Ver is mafia either. Then we have L and BC complicating things even further. I've got to believe that at least one of the four are mafia. I said that three BLUES are way beyond coincidence FOR ME. What I think is that someone has gotten themselves really close to powerful people behind the scenes and is using it to fish out really good information. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL | ||
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On May 20 2009 09:25 Ace wrote: But you keep ignoring this other fact: Who said I feel like pardoning dreamflower? Dream flower has not been confirmed as OBVIOUSLY Mafia so your point is moot. If I pardoner her in that instance then you have every right to get rid of me. But that hasn't happened now has it? Stop thinking of worst case scenarios and LOOK at what we know. Oh wow, playing stupid again. Let me lay this out for you. I want you to die now because I believe you and ver in death will offer up at minimum 1 mafia and dreamflower's pretty much in the bag, netting us a drop in KP. What order do I want you to die in? LET US EXAMINE: Ver / Aceflower v Ace / Verflower Scenario 1. If you are mafia, you ALWAYS FUCKING PARDON AS YOU DIE. you're saying "well, I wouldn't because that would confirm me but YOU'RE ALREADY ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK. YOU'RE TRADING USELESS INFORMATION FOR -1 LYNCH. If you aren't, you die without pardoning. Scenario 2. same people die, no threat of pardon. THIS IS SO FUCKING SIMPLE. THE PARDONER CAN GET WHOMEVER HE'S BEING DOUBLE LYNCHED WITH OFF THE HOOK. EVEN IF DREAMFLOWER IS NOT MAFIA, YOU WOULD PARDON. | ||
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BOTH powerful offices Both offices do nothing for town besides for +2 votes on Ver if he was town aligned which you don't believe. You're just pissy you die under the scenario. You and ver being confirmed as mafia/innocent holds the most possible amount of information for two and both of you are highly suspicious BY YOUR OWN ADMISSION. But okay, I need a better reason. why don't you look at the post I'm replying to. Your defence was "I wouldn't pardon" and now you realize you're full of shit. Sorry ace, think through your posts before making them. Vig, please hit him tonight if we dont' lynch him. L, why is dreamflower in the bag? I did suspect her in the beginning...but that was off some shoddy behavior and some clue analysis that is probably wrong. A day 2 clue analysis doesn't do much better... Behavior, voting pattern, clue analysis and the form of contributions all point towards mafia. | ||
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ok, you don't even know WHO to lynch because you don't even have a credible case. Yes I do. You claimed that you wouldn't pardon under the scenario I gave and are now backtracking from it. You want to lynch Dreamflower when Ver is even more suspect Ah, no, I want to lynch dreamflower AND ver after lynching YOU so we can DOUBLE LYNCH. I already said SURE it makes sense to kill us both but since we all know ONE of us has to be innocent we don't NEED to kill both roles. You admit my plan makes sense, but say above that I don't know who I'm hitting.This post is so self contradictory, and has followed such fucking poor play that I'm only getting more convinced that you're in desperation. Lines like I'm the only guy stopping you are pretty clearly against your cool cucumberness. So yeah Ace, you're fishy and there's a good way to clear the chaos: Find out who in office was legit and who wasn't. If we knock out both of you we can take a look at the voting record. But I don't even need to explain this, you AGREED TO IT. the part you dislike is the portion wherein you die. Suck it up. Do the town some good. | ||
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I seem to be L's popular choice for lynch, Are you fucking retarded?Do you even read? VOTE ACE. if we don't VIG HIT HIM FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. Both people in office need to be killed so we can examine how the election went. EVERY game that a mafia is elected, he is ALWAYS supported by his friends. I don't even care if one or the other is innocent as long as BOTH die and we get the information we need. The FASTEST way to do this is to double and kill ace to prevent him from side pardoning during the lynch. If we lynch ver today and everyone agrees ace is mafia tomorrow, we're still fucked because we're dealing with the same pardoner + double lynch scenario. | ||
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On May 20 2009 10:32 Ace wrote: Nope L, normally I'd be fine with dying but I believe the town is so collectively stupid I refuse. Not this time. 1. If dying is clearly in the best interest of town, then why do you think your genius mind can accomplish under heavy scrutiny other than fuck the town over by depriving them of information? 2. standard ignoring of the majority of my post. | ||
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On May 20 2009 10:36 Incognito wrote: Compromise...Mynock kinda hit it. BC is fishy. Very fishy. Especially with the whole not paying attention to L thing. And the all out anti-Showtime "clue". L is afraid that Ace will pardon dreamflower. So what we do, is we lynch VER today, and save dreamflower and BC for tomorrow. Ace wouldn't pardon because he's not up on the chopping block. So we just lynch Ace the next day. Everyone happy? No, that means we can't do another double lynch on day 4 because we still have pardoner sitting there. If you think ace should be lynched, you want it now so we can advance at full speed with our doubles. | ||
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I'm not making the assumption that just one is mafia. Nor do I think anyone should. | ||
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On May 20 2009 10:44 Mynock wrote: Actually, to be completely fair (and to diverge a little from the rambling style for a while) I understand what you're saying here. I just feel you're working on a very basic, very mechanical level. You don't count in behaviour at all, or rather, do it in a very convoluted way, as if it's something mystical and unexplainable... It's simple stuff actually, and it manifests in small, simple clues. Just as an example: as soon as Ver made that accusatory post and Ace and I rebutted that, Ver goes on saying "oh OK, I liked Ace's response, but Mynock, humm, he's fishy fishy". Why? To set Ace up vs me and vice-versa. Why would he do that if he was innocent? Because he made a miscalculation about me? Nuh-uh, I'm not suspicious on THAT level, and I know it. Ver knows it too. He wouldn't make such a mistake. Simple stuff, but it's subtle. And Town misses that, and Ver knows THAT. Oh, how well he does, he pulled the same stunts last game. If he's not Mafia, I'll have to say this is the worst Townie play I've ever seen from Ver. Period. I'll also admit I suck at reading people. So go on, prove me wrong... Most of the behavioral analysis which led me to suspect all three members of the 'three musketeers' has been posted during day 1. Its only been adding fuel on the fire since then. I've always believed there's the potential for multiple mafia playing the other members of the candidate ring. Either way, since people can't put a finger on a single target and exonerate the other, the best method for town to proceed is to take out both. If you were mafia and saw this, what would you do? Mechanical works. The only way this plan fails to produce a sizable bonus for the town is if both ver AND ace are innocent and pretty much no one believes that at this point. | ||
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Maybe you don't get that: Its THREE OF US DEAD. There is NO reason to vote Ver over Ace unless you're 100% certain Ace is innocent, and no one is. | ||
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If we don't kill Ace, we lose a wealth of information and CANNOT use our double lynches asap. Again, 100% assurance Ace is innocent or your actions hurt the town. We have roughly the same amount of contradicting positions and circumstantial evidence linking Ver and Ace to being mafia. Ver slightly tops out Ace on suspicion in my mind because of the clue analysis, but Ace makes up for that by having a far sketchier voting record and supporters that are far more likely to be mafia. Since the 'suspicion' is relatively high over both of them, DEAL WITH BOTH IN THE BEST MANNER. Mechanical or not, its the BEST path forward. Take it. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:13 Bockit wrote: L, that only works if we're killing Ace with our double lynch. Ace should never get hit during a double lynch because of pardoner status. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:18 fusionsdf wrote: Ace suggesting to lynch ver tells us absolutely nothing. Case 1: Ace is innocent, Ver is mafia -Ace suspects ver naturally and is right Case 2: Ace is innocent, Ver is innocent -Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong Case 3: Ace is mafia, Ver is mafia -Mafia ploy. Ver is lynched, town automatically assumes Ace is innocent, mafia can now abuse that trust. Case 4: Ace is mafia, Ver is innocent -Ace says he was convinced. You have no way to tell this isn't case 2 until Ace is lynched. 2 days wasted, loss of all elected officials results. Ace is a very good player, particularily at occlumency (for someone who never read the books, I really enjoyed the movies). He's not going to be easy to read whether mafia or town, and hes not going to allow himself to be backed into a corner where his play is predicitve (when he is mafia for obvious reasons, when he is innocent for the sake of future games) -Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong Ding ding ding. Someone understands how to analyze incentives in a game of mafia. Ace does not get off the hook REGARDLESS of how Ver flips, which is why we need to take him out FIRST, so that our corresponding kill on Ver can take place at double lynch maximum speed. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:18 Bockit wrote: L: We lynch Ver tonight. We vigi someone tonight based on what we learn from ver's death. Mafia kp is down to 2. A likely scenario, not definite but nowhere near impossible. We learn nothing from killing Ace about Ver. See the above. They were working together until they were elected into office, now they're trying to force an either/or scenario. ACE IS NOT INNOCENT IF VER FLIPS RED. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:20 Bockit wrote: If he pardon's someone when we're double lynching then we simply kill them both the next day. Mafia only have 6 members They cannot afford to lose 2 so easily. he can pardon someone innocent and we're forced to kill them anyways exactly by your logic. EITHER WAY WE'RE DOWN A LYNCH. WE ESSENTIALLY LOSE A DOUBLE LYNCH. Bockit, I've explained this shit before. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:21 fusionsdf wrote: how are you planning to coordinate vigi hits? Just have every vigi go after one person? There is ONE vig who has ONE hit. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:24 LTT wrote: If 2 vigis stack hits, we will be sure to refund the hit of the second to send it in. Also all townies will be resurrected and be given 6 additional night lives. I like you so much. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:29 Amber[LighT] wrote: Well two things can happen: a) The person Ace pardons is red and we have an auto-lynch for day 3. (we can even vote for another 2x lynch tomorrow if I'm reading the rules correctly if we have another definite hit for that day) b) The person Ace pardons is blue and he did us the favor of saving someone. The problem that arises is that persons judgment is up to the town. We could just use the DT to find out that guys role or just choose to not lynch that person assuming Ace is trying to trick us. Though thinking about it the ability for Ace to pardon tomorrow does make him more of a liability than keeping Ver alive. I honestly believe that Ver is not mafia. He hasn't even done anything as mayor aside from making an accidental lynch. We know he doesn't trust Ace this game so he probably wanted to see what Ace would say when he asked between myself and MBH. I plan to push for another double lynch so we get ours done on days 3 and 4. As fast as possible to cut down kp so we last longer and get more clues. Basically the yomi situation you've set up is fucked because if he pardons a red and we think he's blue, we just took a mafia out of the gallows, but if he saved a blue and we think he's red, we need to kill again. Since we voted him for death the first time, its likely we will vote him for death again. A net delay of kill in ANY scenario. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:45 Bockit wrote: L your whole argument on the double lynch revolves around Ace being mafia/traitor. Take that out of the equation and you waste today's lynch. Lynch Ver now, and it's still possible to vigi Ace tonight, if we decide he is guilty. Then tomorrow the double lynch can take out 2 more suspects. By lynching Ver first, and vigi'ing Ace tonight later (if we decide to do so) we get more time to decide what we think about Ace. As to where I stand on Ace, at the moment I'm 50%. I can't decide if he's town aligned or not I keep flipping what I think in regard to him. And no shit, if Ver flips red it doesn't mean Ace is innocent, I never said that. No it doesn't. The strategy for the lynch revolves around the double lynch and pardoner. The RISK that he's mafia makes this the proper move. This is risk management. I've already asked the vig to hit ace tonight if he isn't lynched, but why depend on a single person? You're asking questions like "is ace innocent", and I'm saying "i don't care". 50% suspicion is PLENTY. Lynch him. Find his colour. Look at the voting records. Look at his early supporters and people who joined the ace wagon late. Don't fucking delay the biggest treasure trove of information we have from being opened, and don't rely on a single person who may or may not make the hit. Vigilantes are unpredictable. Caller proved that last game. And yeah, you ARE implying that ace is innocent. WHAT THE FUCK DOES IT MATTER WHAT VER FLIPS? IT TELLS US NOTHING. There's no additional info here. Pretty sure fusion's post drilled that into your head. Ace and Ver's rivalry today can be interpreted as sincere or an obvious mafia setup for a red-herring. You want to know why I know that? Because 1: I was saying the 3 musketeers would pull shit like that during day 1. They did. 2: Its what we did in.. every game as mafia prior to this. Standard damage control. Mafia scared one of their own looks too juicy a target? Start incriminating him. Get the ball rolling. Take credit for something town would have done and get confidence in that manner. | ||
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My plan is the BEST plan for going forward. It lets town kill mafia faster, get more information, hits the most likely targets. It is the most logical and straight forward path to victory and people are picking up on that. VOTE FOR ACE AND DOUBLE LYNCH. TOMORROW VER/DREAMFLOWER (unless we find someone better than dreamflower) | ||
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I just assumed we can't depend on him to agree with me. | ||
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No you didn't work with Mynock and Ver to get voted in. No there wasn't a hueg voteswing to you day 1. No YOU weren't the one that coined the term 'three musketeers' to cement the solidarity between you three. No you didn't defend both mynock and ver until day 2 started. | ||
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On May 18 2009 03:28 Ace wrote: Look at all the wrong shit in this post, oh gee I don't know where to start. 1.) You haven't been logical. Period. Your arguments about Pardoner are null and void because we can't determine anyone's roles yet. Duh. So your asking the town to vote in a way that is pretty much useless. All we can do is vote on ability which unfortunately leaves a lot of people out. 2.) nemy isn't in office. If I was worried about losing the election that bad of all people why would I go after nemy? Or you know, I could just take my vote off of mynock and abstain or vote for someone else. Duh? Your analysis is complete shit, try again. 3.) I'm supporting Mynock and Ver because I feel they are the other 2 best candidates. Every game we have people like you who question why I'm doing something, and you all come off looking like idiots. How many times do I have to tell you - you're wasting time. Maybe I just genuinely believe those 2 are good for the town and holy shit! They might be mafia but they haven't acted like you or nemy so I have no reason to fuck with them. 4.) That's nice that 1 of the 3 of us might be mafia. It's also nice that 6 out of the 30 people playing might be also. What's your point? 5.) There is no danger to me. Stop trying so hard. There is no mafia coveted Pardoner spot - any of the 2 will do. Stop making up these grand ideas in your head. 6.) Your "ifs" are wrong because none of us play this game like you. It shows. 7.) I don't know exactly what time I started reading the thread or exactly what time I went to bed. But if you want to dissect it till your blue in the face go ahead - I'm innocent and don't have to worry about anything. See unlike nemy, I haven't lied about anything. And unlike you I'm actually analyzing whats going on now and not some made up scenario that we have no control over. Got anything else you want to uselessly add to the thread? Any more lightweight accusations you want to make against The Three Musketeers? Yeah, completely independant. | ||
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Not supporting them? Not making your entire day 1 post content about how Ver/You/Mynock need to get office? | ||
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How does that equal working WITH them? Explain doofus. How doesn't it? Rofl. SMARTER if you actually looked at the voters I did, you have a total of 1 person who didn't switch votes under your list and they voteswang you. Not fishy at all. [quoite]So let's see: 1.) Wrong about me working with Mynock and Ver to get voted in 2.) Wrong about me causing a suspicious voteswing as if it came out of no where 3.) Acting as if coining the term "The three Musketeers" is automatically cause for creating a Mafia coalition[/quote] So lets see 1. Right about you working with mynock and Ver. 2. Right about you having a suspicious voteswing to your name. 3. I never said coining the term made it happen, it was the crystallization of a larger trend of co-operation. And yea, go ahead and try to lynch any but dreamflower. I'm gonna pardon them because right now your making no sense and are acting more mafiaish than anyone with the exception of Ver and Nemy This is why we're killing you first, silly, so you don't have this wacky mafia controlled pardon ability : ). Thanks for proving my point, Mr cool cucumber. COOLACECUCUMBER, please be happier when you post. Like me : D | ||
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On May 18 2009 04:02 Mynock wrote: I'll try to be as reasonable as I can here, and just address the L issue briefly. L, to make it a bit more clear, the problem both Ace (I think) and I have here, is that you're dealing with some virtual Mafia game's Day 7, while we're actually trying to address the issues of here and now. And your constant paranoia and shouting does get a bit tiresome. I understand your position and your concerns, but I just don't feel they're as valid and of such high priority to deal with them extensively. That aside, there is one point I agree with you on, and that is the upstart of a Mafia Mayor as quickly as possible. However, out of the leading candidates, that only applies to Ver. I have been wondering myself where Ver could have gone, because he's made virtually no input after his initial campaining and a brief cameo after nemY RCed (granted, his campaigning put him in a comfortable spot, but still...). If Ver is out there and active, I'd like to hear his take on this matter. Mynock clearly not working along side you to marginalize me. | ||
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On May 18 2009 03:55 Ace wrote: Oh snap L fails at reading again, and now tries to put the loss of the Town last game on me. I love this shit. 1.) Obviously determining roles is the aim of the game - but we are still at Mayoral elections. None of us can determine anything right now. Oh shit how did you miss this? You even quoted it but read it wrong. 2.) Worried about the election != worried about nemy. I'd love to be in, but hey if Mynock and Ver made it can't say I'd be sad. I'm not that worried about the election. But yea your right - I am worried about nemy which is exactly why I've been making my case against him. 3.) circular collusion? lol ok Don King. Ver has been pretty much silent, and only myself and Mynock have really supported each other. Stop trying to take wild guesses. 4.) I am immune from scrutiny. Because I'm innocent so anything you try to come at me with just doesn't phase me. If you caught me lying or bullshitting I'd understand but I never have. You know, thats how most of the good players that play know when I'm innocent. 5.) It wasn't proven false. How would you know the Mafia covet the Pardoner spot unless they themselves stated it? Once again you're failing. 6.) It's an US statement because playing the game with Ver and Mynock so many times I KNOW none of us play the game like you. It's just that simple - nothing beyond that. 7.) What full disclosure is there to give? But since you want to - go ahead. Post this evidence. You'll see I went to sleep, woke up, and came on TL.net after playing DOTA. Clan chat, replays - post whatever you need to. I know I'm not mafia so I'm begging you to do what you have to in order to "prove" I'm lying. I wasn't dodging but since you said I was I'm here for the show. So go ahead champ, show us what you got. Supporting mynock/ver again. You 'KNOW' how they play, but now believe Ver is mafia. Nice prediction skills. Etc. | ||
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Go to search on the top left of the TL interface, put in whatever, then go search advanced by limiting results to content by Ace and picking Mynock or Ver as the subject field. It will give you a list of all of his posts where he mentions the person stated. I will make a picture. | ||
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happy reading mon ami :3 | ||
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I have stated repeatedly that a decent amount of suspicion is all that's required in order for this plan to be the best possible plan. I don't know that Ace is mafia. I don't know that Ver is mafia. I don't know how the fuck Mynock fits into the jigsaw puzzle. What I do know is that Ver is obviously under suspicion and so is Ace. Ace's defence was more emotional than rational and made attempts to ignore valid criticisms of his past actions by trying to confuse the issues. Trying to create a difference between supporting and 'working with' when there are posts with ace specifically chatting cordially addressed to Mynock, for instance. I don't need Ace OR Ver to be 100% confirmed mafia in my mind because the main points are as follows. My first premise is that both Ace AND Ver were elected under very odd circumstances: Ace exhibited a mass of vote switching. Certain players switched their vote up to 3 times. Ver similarly had an early bandwagon and was largely silent the entire time. This doesn't mean they are mafia, but if they ARE mafia, their vote lists are VERY likely to contain mafia members. This has been the story of every mafia game in which a mafia member is elected into public office. When you say "mafia could have voted for someone innocent" I'm saying "that's irrelevant". My second premise is that with respect to the BG slaughter, we can't point towards Ver over Ace or Ace over Ver. Both ran on equivilant platforms. Both stressed their experience and skill. Both have added near nothing in terms of analysis when it was not to directly defend themselves. Why would I assume that BGs claimed to Ver instead of Ace? Ace was more active, for one, but Ver admits he has received a lot of PMs. My third premise is that the most important source of information in this game are the undisputable voting lists. If either are discovered to be mafia, their lists become prime targets for looking for future targets. And when I say "prime" targets, I mean PRIME. My fourth premise is that we cannot lynch Ace as well as another target during a double lynch. The explanation for this has been repeated ad nauseum. My fifth premise is the final one. It is that we should lynch as soon as possible in order to remove killing power to extend our town's lifespan. This is the most important premise. Simple version: Ace and Ver are fishy. There is likely a mafia in office (universally accepted) If there is, finding out which is mafia will give us solid leads on other mafia We need to act as quickly as possible The quickest way is to deal with Ace prior to Ver. If Vig wants to help out, awesome. Now, do I assume Ace is mafia? No. I say that we need to kill Ace AND Ver in order to unravel the confusion we've had in the first two days and discover 1) the reason for the odd voting patterns 2) the reason for the BG slaughter. Since I want to get lynches on the table as fast as possible, I cannot let Ace be the second lynch. If Ver was pardoner, I would select him first. It has nothing to do with the magnitude of the suspicion. It simply enables double lynching. Bockit. I've made this exact point to you before. If you want to fix the mistakes of the last game, you can look at my analysis of how town failed during the last game. One of my points is directly there: Town didn't start doubles early enough. Additionally, you state that Ace's recent actions seem to show that he's innocent. Really? I highly disagree. You judge, based on the action of other players stating that they are suspicious and voted for Ace, that Ace is less likely to be guilty. Wrong. the majority of mafia will bail on what they consider an outted mafia. One or two will hang on to provide consistency to their views, but the vast majority will plant red herrings. I explained this before when noting that Ace and Ver could both be mafia and they could be attempting to red herring each other into innocence on the lynch of one. This is the way mafia played last game, and it was a conscious choice. We deliberately set up a net of accusations and counter accusations so that if one of us was found, our post content could not be used to directly figure someone else out. Most obvious example of that? Bockit's game opening PMs talking about JeeJee, who I, as mafia, knowingly defended and got out of the lynch. If you followed Bockit's red herring, an innocent would die who would make a mafia look innocent. DOUBLE BONUS. The same is obviously being played here. For Mynock: IF YOU DARE GET DIVERTED FROM YOUR FUCKING MAFIA MAYOR JUST LIKE YOU DID LAST GAME, I WILL FUCKING GO TO YOUR HOUSE AND MURDER YOU! I am 100% in favor of killing Ver. That's the entire point of doing this. If he's Vigilante'd this night after Ace is killed, all the better. | ||
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On May 20 2009 22:43 Bockit wrote: I just feel the suspicion factor of Ace isn't anywhere near as high as you're saying it is. Going through your premises: Premise 1: I have no issue with this. Essentially it's saying, if Ace / Ver are mafia, we gain lots of information about their voters. As a premise, that's true. How we work from it I think is where we are disagreeing. You are saying we should kill both Ace and Ver. I'm willing to give Ace the benefit of the doubt based on my observations of his behaviour. If we lynch a candidate and they're innocent we get little in terms of information from the votelist (Your red herrings point). I'm at this stage willing to say I think Ace is *more likely* to be innocent than guilty. Enough so that I'd rather not lynch him over Ver tonight. Premise 2: I think this is irrelevant as I still haven't seen anything to convince me that any of the bgs claimed to anyone. Everyone knows by now the perils of doing so. They'd gain absolutely nothing out of doing so, it makes no sense. Premise 3: Same as premise 1. I agree with the premise. It only comes into play if they flip red. Again, I'm not sure enough Ace is red to be putting our hit on him at the moment. Give me better arguments than "he had a dodgy voting pattern behind him" (easily a potential red herring), or "he was working with mynock and ver", give me solidish clues (Hardware one I'm not a fan of). If you can give me solid evidence that he is mafia, then sure. Otherwise I'm inclined to disagree on the actions we should take based on this premise. Premise 4: Yes, this is true, again, if he is red. As you say, a lot of people accept that there is a red in office. Most people are pretty sure it's Ver. Not many are agreeing with you at this stage that it's Ace. Yes it's possible they are both mafia. Premise 5: This is true. I'm going to run some numbers, this is how I see it. If we lynch Ace and he is green, we've essentially wasted 1 kp of our total x kp. We traded 1 kp for 1 non-mafia If we lynch Ace and he flips red, our kp is unchanged. We've successfully traded 1 kp for 1 mafia. If we don't lynch Ace and he is green, our kp is unchanged. If we don't lynch Ace and he is red. He pardons someone as he dies on a double lynch and we lose 1 kp of our total x kp (it was pardoned in the only circumstance that a mafia pardoner is ever really going to use his power with a negative effect on the town, double lynch with him included). To me it looks like we end up even on both ways. It's possible mafia get 1 extra hit on us if when the time a mafia pardoner gets killed in a double lynch of which the other suspect is a mafia, and we need to kill both to knock their kp down a notch. Do you see how obscure this situation is? There is no need to lynch Ace now. Vote to lynch Ver The problem with your analysis is that you: 1) Ignore when double lynches are used. Timing is important. You admit this. 2) Somehow assume hitting a red and not hitting a green are equivilant. 3) Ignore the amount of information we gain by being able to verify Ace's side. I'd also say that you significantly underestimate how suspicious Ace is. I've given my reasons, I understand you feel differently. That's fine. I suggest you read a number of his posts that I've pointed out as inconsistent and review his posting history during the first day. There's quite a bit pointing towards him. | ||
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On May 20 2009 22:18 Mynock wrote: L, you ignore behaviour almost completely. No, mechanical doesn't work. It's stupid and convoluted. We're not here to lynch half the Town. It's Mafia's job to kill innocents, we must concentrate on killing Mafia. At the same time, we have to minimize collateral damage. There are prime suspects right now, above Ace, and I'd rather not lose Ace just yet. The solution is so fucking simple: Lynch Ver. If he's innocent, we can Vigi Ace easily (and you don't even have to endure another Pardoner nightmare again, hey!). If he's Mafia, we go after other prime Mafia suspects (like Plexa and co.) Simple stuff, but requires a bit of logical thinking before. As opposed to convoluted paranoid stuff with no thinking behind it (or rather overthinking certain stuff, completely ignoring other). As fusion notes, if Ver is innocent or guilty has nearly zero impact on how innocent or guilty we should evaluate Ace's suspicion level. | ||
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On May 21 2009 01:42 Ace wrote: Good posts by Mynock and Bockit, as the rage post I was about to make has been made by them in a calmer matter. The stupidity of this plan just begs the question of how any sane person can even go for it. L's plan is really just a "lets get rid of everyone" plan, with me as the top dog just because I might Pardon someone. What L fails to understand is that Ver has shown such mafiaish behavior, and I haven't (even though he keeps making shit up) that it's obvious who needs to die. Once I die (because mafia will surely kill me tonight) you'll lose your Pardons and one of your voices of reason. Then L has a big fucking flaw in his argument: The vote lists. What exactly are they going to tell you? If you want to know the reason people voted for me - JUST ASK THEM. If I was to flip red and you looked at my votes what can you possibly determine? That most of the people on there are Mafia? - WRONG. You couldn't because I caught a surge after I made a platform post to get elected, hence you'd be having a very difficult time in knowing if those voters are legit townies who liked the post or mafia majority. And when I flip green then what? Or how are you going to explain how Ver got his votes when he flips red/traitor? Go ahead, what are you going to do? Telling the town "we'll just look at the voters list" after I'm dead means shit. Like I said from the very beginning, the one plan that will get us where we need to be: look at the people who did not get elected that ran for Mayor, and look at nemy. In fact even if you want to believe nemy is legit, look at all the people that were involved in the arguments FOR nemy being a legit DT. Don't drop the fucking ball on this one. First off: You've shown a massive amount of suspicious behavior. Second: Pardon can ONLY hurt town. A number of people who are currently defending you admitted that in the past. Even you dropped the subject when I completely dismantled your shit over it earlier. I've already explained how the votelists and mafia being voted into office work. Mafia will not suddenly say "I voted for Ace because he's red like me". We can't ASK people why they voted for you. The standard answer will be 1) Didn't like nemY 2) Liked Ace ZERO information from that. Figuring out your side tells us a huge amount about the people who voted for you because there's something they can't contest. If you're red, they can't argue against that. If you're green, they can't argue against that. Ace, look at the vote list for you. Everyone switched votes besides for one person, and you're telling me that we aren't going to find out fuck all if we kill you. Let me ask something to everyone here: What if Ace AND Ver are mafia? What then? | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:07 Ace wrote: Ok L since your "logic" just begs the question: Once I'm dead and I flip green what does that tell you? Who looks guilty or innocent by my death? Answer this please. Depends on how Ver/x flips as well. What happens if you flip red, ace? What happens to that train of mafia that voteswung you? Someone's afraid. | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:21 Ace wrote: 1.) I have not shown suspicious behavior. That's just you trying to convince yourself you need a reason to lynch me. Look at how many people have said I haven't even done anything wrong. Keep telling yourself that though. 2.) Pardons can HELP the town. How many times have I already shown you that I've ALWAYS caught the bandwagoned townie and stuck up for them? Plenty. So don't try that bullshit. 3.) YOU GET ZERO INFORMATION FROM MY DEATH what are you going to do? What "side" do I have? Who can you say I'm working with? Go ahead, answer these questions. No matter what color I flip you find nothing out because there is no one in the entire game I'm associated with. I've said this countless times and you keep ignoring it. Look at my vote list all you want - it all happened after my platform post. Hence, you can't honestly say it's pure townie or majority mafia and you keep ignoring this point. What if Ace and Ver are Mafia? Holy shit! yes what if we BOTH are Mafia! Then it made perfect sense to kill the 2 people protecting us from Vigis and draw suspicion on ourselves! LOL thats just STUPID. L - your getting desperate. Just stop. 1) yes you have. you initially supported ver, switched on a dime the moment day 2 happened. you denied supporting people I've given 100% proof you did. you've ignored a massive amount of information against you. you have a fucking shifty ass voting record behind you. you consistently misrepresent the abilities of the pardoner. you use emotional language instead of providing solid logical argumentation. you readily admit that someone who ran is likely mafia. I can go on. 2)Pardoning cannot help the town. If you want to stop a bandwagoned townie, you need to convince the town of doing so. The only time this can be used effectively is if the townie is confirmed, and I don't see how we can confirm people in this game outside of PM work. 3) I get plenty of information from your death. Believe me. You pretend you aren't associated with anyone? Your supporters and those you supported during day one are fairly good connections, as are the people who voted for you today, and the people defending you today. There's plenty of information to be gained. Its pretty fucking obvious we're getting information from your death. Its also important that we can gain further information by eliminating the threat of a mafia pardon to allow double lynches. | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:22 Ace wrote: Yes, because all the Mafia, even though there are only a few them all voted for me enough that they'd be caught that easily. Yes L, your logic is frightening. I never said all mafia. 1 or 2 would be enough to draw connections to and from. You know very well that mafia would never go all in like that, but that they would concentrate themselves or start off a bandwagon. | ||
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What happens if Ver flips towns? What happens if both candidates are mafia? | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:37 Ace wrote: 1.) DUH! Both of the bodyguards die that protect myself and him, Ver lynches a guy who he never brought up to me in PM and then stops posting? He makes some jackass post about trying to trick me - No shit why wouldn't I suspect him? How is that suspicious? *puts dunce cap on L* 2.) Pardoning can't help the town? Are you retarded? How many times have I shown that I've ALWAYS got the right guy pinned. Go ahead and try and deny it. Every single time I've stuck up for someone they flipped Town right? Right. So if you guys are about to lynch him and I pardon him then obviously I did my job right. The evidence is there and your just bullshitting. Your last sentence is even more laughable - they can only be confirmed outside of PM work...really? So all those times I knew those guys were innocent I went to Little Tokyo and paid some guy to read my fortune? Genius. 3.) No you don't because you can't answer this simple question - WHO is associated with me? Saying your going to look at who voted for me is hogwash. Who are my supporters? list them. What are there connections to me? List those too. how about we eliminate you because hey - you just might be mafia too! In fact I hope you do get vigi'd tonight just so I can be like well...we gained a lot of information from his death. 1. Don't ignore everything else, good sir. Throwing up an either/or red herring is standard. Both of you would be in on it so the plausibility of the situation is irrelevant if you're both mafia. 2. How many times have you played mafia and abused the fact that you were respected by the town? Why should this rest on the fact that people need to ASSUME you're innocent? All of this assumes you're innocent. My plan DOES NOT REQUIRE THAT ASSUMPTION. My plan provides maximum effect EXCEPT in the case that you/ver flip double innocent. No one agrees that's possible. 3. Who? Musketeers (Ver Mynock) and people you've supported (Tricode, etc) The entire votelist for you (0cz3c <-- from Ver Ver <-- from Caller Malongo <-- from Fishball mikeymoo <-- from Mynock MrBabyHands HeavOnEarth <-- from Abstain Scamp <-- from nemY Bockit <-- from Mynock Mynock < -- from Ver Ver <-- from Showtime! Tricode <-- from Mynock) Bolded extra suspicion due to overlap. Depending on how Ver's flip comes up, these would be analyzed differently. Mafia wouldn't have had the impetus to seed a bangwagon on you if they had ver going, for instance, but they would have had the impetus to voteswing you. If you and Ver are red, tricode is likely red as well. If Ver is green and you are red, Malongo MBH and HeavOnEarth become more suspicious. The people who have defended you. Caller, Mynock etc. These will be cross referenced with the Ver list depending on how he turns. Caller, for instance, on a double red, would look red as well. Cobbler would look very red too. But that's all preliminary because I'm going to go back to all of the old posts and review them in depth and I'll invite everyone to do so with me while we have a few people clue checking. We're also going to have another 3 mafia clues to examine, another hitlist to look at and all of the content posted in-thread until then. | ||
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O_o I'm being very civil in the face of douchebaggery. | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: If Ver flips town then FUCK. Its the risk we take EVERY TIME we lynch someone. We have to work with what we got, if nothing else it limits who the vision/sight clues can link to. If Ver flips innocent and we believe for SURE that one offical HAS to be a mafia (for whatever fucking reason) we can request that the Vigi hits him. Even if it causes chaos with no officials. I understand Ver is busy, maybe its just an excuse or maybe its not. Why would he sign up for mafia if he has SUCH important exams coming up? I thought all of us were basically out of school now. But whatever, maybe its legit. In fact it most likely is. But his posts still have not been THAT constructive. Hes not really doing much. 1. Don't depend on Vig to be reading the thread. Do it yourself if you can. 2. And if they're both mafia? | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:51 Mynock wrote: L, you honestly think there's some kind of underground network you're going to flush out once Ace is dead? Just so you know, this is all the information you get from our PMs with Ace this round: Let's see how you can process the ridiculous amount of data in all that. Lol, compare that to my pms: To: Bockit Subject: Re: If it makes a difference Date: 5/20/09 13:34 Ok. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I too feel that the argument between Ace and Ver back during the election was terribly contrived. I do want to see Ace killed tonight (as in, before I agreed to your plan in the thread), part of the reasoning behind my posts in the thread was that I wanted to see how Ace responded to my defense of him, and your accusation. He just sat back, which to me indicates more that he's mafia, as they are usually willing to let Town do their work for them (in this case me arguing for him). I'm pretty confident now I've agreed to the plan you're proposing, we're going to see Ace come rocking into the thread "What the fuck is wrong with the town" etc. If he does, I'm going to post this pm btw. And its not really an underground network. Voting in mafia to office always uses the same pattern. Go look at previous games. No, seriously, this is Mynock homework. Want to do some good for the town? Go label the voting order for every mafia voter in each mafia office attempt. See if you find a pattern. I know what it is and have posted it. Go see if i'm full of shit. | ||
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On May 21 2009 02:58 Ace wrote: LOL. What the fuck? So your plan is just kill everyone who I've even remotely been nice to or complimented - absolutely brilliant. I've supported Tricode?! - LOL! Sure L, sure I have. You still haven't answered my questions even remotely well. It still stands - if both Ver and I were red why would we kill both of the bodyguards? You're about to kill off a lot of innocents and waste double lynches and NOT play it safe - the very thing you accused me of doing. You're playing like shit - stop your nonsense. No, its to look at people who fit the model of someone attempting to push mafia into office, and they'd be looked at if you were mafia. Are you saying you WOULDN'T examine the voting order and people who defended you if you flipped red? It still stands - if both Ver and I were red why would we kill both of the bodyguards? Already answered. All 3 scenarios explained too. 2x roleclaim 1 luck 1 roleclaim 2x luck. For someone playing like shit, I've answered a lot of the questions you keep bringing up in the past. Why is it that you don't recall the answers? Maybe you should read a bit before throwing out accusations : ). | ||
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On May 21 2009 03:00 Ace wrote: Oh shit I have the same PM L! Guess that means your part of the underground Mafia network too now! Hi 5 bro. | ||
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I don't see Mynock's homework on the table. Town would benefit from looking at the pattern of past mafia voting in office elections. I dont' see how you can try to be offensive about this. | ||
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On May 21 2009 03:05 Ace wrote: Because those aren't answers your giving L - you keep giving us made up scenarios. Answer the questions with some logic and stop playing like shit. Ver and I are both Mafia, hence we'd want to make ourselves vulnerable to vigis just so we could pull an amazing trick on the town? Incredible! And why would I examine the voting order of the people who voted for myself or Ver when it's even BETTER if I stick to my original plan and look at the candidates who lost the election. It's a smaller sample of players and we've already concluded that it's likely one of the people that ran for Mayor/Pardoner is Mafia. Stop trying to divert the town from that path. Vigi - kill L tonight. Lol. Go read the post. I gave you every possible outcome of how they ended up killing the bodyguards and why they could do it. Why would you suspect Ver of killing both BGs if the above applies? Clearly there must have been some amazing trick to putting himself in danger regardless of your innocence or not, right? And I'm not the one trying to divert the town from that path. I'm the one trying to get the best possible result from that assured 1 of 2 situation. | ||
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On May 21 2009 03:32 Mynock wrote: Wondering why Ver doesn't post? He doesn't need to. Not as long as he has YOU, L. Everything is in perfect order for him. He knows he's busted, but hey, the Town won't lynch him anyway, they have L! "He'll make sure Town wastes this lynch, so why the fuck should we even be involved, right?" Ver will come in towards the very end, put his votes on Ace, and that's that. And the other Mafiosi? By that time they'll be all around on random targets, or on Ver himself. If Ver's votes suddenly get a surge, he'll come in sooner. He'll make a long post shifting the blame to all kinds of people, and we might see some of those who voted away from Ace, suddenly return, "convinced" by Ver's post. This is why voting Ver makes the most sense. Whoever doesn't want to lynch Ver now, is suspicious, if the Ver votes gain momentum, whoever tries to turn the tide is suspicious. Remember tho, Ver still hasn't even played his 2 votes yet! That without even making his soon-to-come post about why Ace such a juicier target, bound to convince some gullible Townies. Do you realize just how deep his rake is up your asses yet? I'm cool with having ver vig hit the first night. Where's the delay here? Regardless of what we do, we can't knock down KP with a single kill. the double lynch happens essentially during the same kp cycle as our vig hit, so why depend on the vig? O_o. | ||
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On May 21 2009 03:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: wait, did you just call me mafia? lolwtf? It also opens the option of why if a mafia is in office they would kill 2 BGs. It was an accident. Only purposely hit one. If mafia know BGs and have someone in office they sometimes do that because it gives them the ability to just quick kill the other BG later in the game and then get the other elected official. Uh, no i didn't? I agree with your analysis: I was pointing to the fact that I did a similar analysis earlier and called it 1 luck 1 roleclaim, and that it was a very safe play by mafia because they didn't know they would hit both BGs, like you're saying. | ||
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On May 21 2009 03:46 Mynock wrote: Apparently you don't understand what I'm saying here. Ver doesn't come because everything goes to plan? Why? Cause we're about to lynch an innocent. He knows he's out, but why would he be involved here? No need. The Town is making a mistake as it is now, and he needs not to intervene. Stop with your endless accusations of Ace, you'll see how Ver jumps back here in an instant. Or if they're both mafia, Ver's absence draws suspicion to him and pulls it away from Ace. Again, if they're both mafia, they're setting up an Either/Or scenario in order to make Ver's death lend credibility to mafia Ace. Mynock. What happens if they're both mafia? What happens if ver flips town? Both situations we get FUCKED. In my plan we only get fucked if there's a double innocent lynch. An innocent Ace death would at least provide security for the following double lynch + information on his voting list. It is the best possible situation in which to take out someone suspicious. | ||
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On May 21 2009 05:24 HeavOnEarth wrote: Seconded. Just a side note that L did the exact same thing as mafia last game. it was quite hilarious how he never got caught though XD The way I played last game and the way I played this game are obviously MASSIVELY different. I was/am the highest posting volume player in the game. I came out very strong during day 1. Both are something I haven't done previously. Making a strong argument is the only thing I've done which fits with previous play. | ||
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What if Ace and Ver are both mafia? Everyone seems to have ignored that. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:15 MTF wrote: Then that will become apparent with time and we can still win, even though Ace would be able to Pardon a single fellow Mafia member. As is, there isn't sufficient proof for me (or for the majority of people, it seems) to go along with this "safest route" plan. How? Ace would be the least scrutinizable individual in the game: he's got a group of followers that have consistently defended him since day 1, cannot be rolechecked, and cannot even be looked at during a double lynch. This is the equivalent of the argument we made for Qatol earlier: "Well, its cool, we'll just kill him a turn later if we find out something's fishy" in the face of a mountain of evidence against him. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:17 Bockit wrote: Nobody has discounted the possibility.. I just don't think it likely atm. I'd like to take this opportunity to ask people to make the swap to Ver. At this stage it's Ace 7 - 11 Ver, ver's vote counts for 3, making it 10 - 11. All that has to happen at that point is for a mafia voting for ver to swap to Ace, or a couple of the mafia abstaining/not voting/voting for others to 'finally decide to go to Ace' after a massive post from ver that will tip the lynch vote. Don't let mafia control the day 2 lynch! No, pretty much everyone has discounted it. Examine who would be defending who in this thread based on the voting pattern if both members are mafia: Early bandwagon on Ver along with a straggler switch onto Ace. Odd coincidence that many of those players are the ones pushing so heavily for a Ver lynch and discounting that Ace is likely mafia? Everything fits in that situation. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:20 Bockit wrote: You do realise that every day he lives, if he is mafia, there will be clues building up against him? You realize that the longer we delay killing him, the less we're able to use our double lynch because of his pseudo veto over it and that killing quickly gives us more days for clues to build up, right? What's more, compare him to any other player: We can't R/C him. People bandwagon behind his statements, etc. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:21 Bockit wrote: I mean, you've already found 1 clue, I don't know if I agree with it yet, but if it pops up as a continuous theme then yes, I might have to re-evaluate. Again, nobody is discounting the possibility. Can you please drop the safest route plan, swap your vote to Ver so there is less chance of them controlling the vote? You have to see this is bad. I see mafia trying to save one of their members in office as bad. I see not being able to examine how mafia voted people into office day 1 as bad. Why would I swap my vote to Ver if the entire point of killing ace tonight is so that I can have a double called against him the next day if the vig doesn't snipe him tonight. No matter if Ace or Ver are both innocent or both guilty, we can't drop KP with a successful kill, so it doesn't really matter townwise if Ver dies right now, to vig tonight, or to double tomorrow. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:25 Bockit wrote: Holding back the double lynches because you are afraid that he might pardon them is stupid and I really hope that doesn't end up happening. No, it just removes our ability to hit Ace during the double lynches, which makes him invulnerable until Day 5 if we do 2 back to back. Do you understand why I'm not super peachy keen on waiting for 'clues' to build up if he's already got a bunch of suspicion on him? He's a fantastic tool to push town down the wrong paths. Its not 'oh we'll kill Ace if he's suspicious', because we simply can't kill him during a double. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:30 MTF wrote: You don't need a role check to identify him with time (you can't fake away clues even if you can fake behavior) and I'm quite sure that if those defending him were not Mafia, they would stop doing so in the face of clear evidence. If not, then you were right. You're either making the assumption that there is a mountain of evidence against Ace right now that nobody is seeing except you or that there will be a mountain of evidence later with which town will do nothing with. I'm guessing the former. I don't think there's really anything constructive to say if either option is correct, though. I didn't say we needed a role check. I said he's the least scrutinizable player in the game. Is that correct or not? No rolecheck. Large bandwagon behind him. Cannot vote for him until day 5 or vig hit if we do back to back double lynches. Consistently contradictory posts. Has supported mafia players in the past. The target of a massive voteswing. I mean, 2+2. There's evidence. | ||
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On May 17 2009 08:01 Qatol wrote: The pardoner CAN still use his ability to pardon someone who is being lynched alongside himself. He has to use his ability before the night post by definition. Therefore, he is still alive when he can send in his role and can thus pardon when he is about to be lynched. An analogous use would be a vigilante using his hit when he is also taking a hit from the mafia. Both actions go through. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:36 Ace wrote: What Mafia players have I supported in the past? Obvious one? Your buddy running mate Ver. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:39 Bockit wrote: @showtime! Ver's already implied what his defense is going to be in his previous post. It's going to be something along the lines of 'You all sucked, so I ignored you, and the thread', 'I'm really disappointed', 'I was too busy to try and correct misconceptions'. If that sits with you as a legitimate defense then by all means, wait. If it doesn't, I'd recommend voting for him now. It was Ace's defense last game. I agree its a bullshit defense, but it was actually valid in the most recent example of it being used. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:40 MTF wrote: First, the so-called large bandwagon behind him is pretty small to the very consistent core that voted Ver in and people can defend Ace without being die-hard about it. Like me, right now. Second, the "cannot vote for him" bit is incorrect, unless you assume that we can't vote for him because he'd pardon whoever the other person was. Which is incorrect. I haven't seen that many contradictory posts and I'm not sure what you mean by his having supported mafia players in the past, unless you somehow have them figured out already. Finally, the massive voteswing you're talking about happened because of the Nemy situation. Nemy was close to being pushed into a position and many players did not like that, so there was a movement to vote in either Mynock or Ace in behind Ver. Ace ended up being the one that got the votes. MTF, we already 100% agreed that if Ace is mafia and he's going down, its always in his best interest to pardon the other player, mafia or not. If both Ver and Ace are mafia, your analysis of the 'large bandwagon' is consistent with what most mafia players would do in the current situation. Drop Ver, switch to Ace. And regardless of the nemY situation, if Ace flips red, the voteswing is a voteswing. THIS IS WHY WE NEED TO BE ABLE TO TELL WHICH SIDE HE'S ON. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:41 Ace wrote: You mean the Day before the bodyguards were killed right? Right. Because after they died + the shifty PM I instantly said I think he's fishy. Thanks for the fail. Now what other Mafia players have I supported? Pretty sure by all analysis of the bodyguards dying performed to this point towards you and Ver equally. The main cause of suspicion on Ver is simple inactivity. Guess what, I was calling him fishy before day 1 even ended, : ). | ||
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When incriminated by versatile you threw up your hands said the town was stupid and won a titay. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:49 Ace wrote: IF I'm Mafia - which while is a solid idea you keep ignoring the fact that very few people think I am. Your plan relies on the fact that I'd be confirmed Mafia by now which is not the case and you keep trying to ACT like I am. Which brings us to problem #2 - Ver and I are Mafia - which is impossible at this point. If both of us were Mafia you'd be ignoring a VERY glaring problem - we would never kill off both Bodyguards if that were the case. And since you are relying on #2 to prove #1 as the point for me being Mafia and going along with your plan - it fails. This is what we've been telling you for ages but you come up with new ideas in your head to justify a failed plan. This is probably the THIRD time I repeat this. My plan does not REQUIRE that you're mafia to pay off. It does, however, pay off even in the event that you are. NONE of the other suggestions, including lynching ver today over you, do. If both of you were mafia, there are a number of scenarios which would lead to both BGs dying. I believe Incog summarized my thinking on the matter like 2 pages ago in a completely seperate analysis. Since #1 isn't an assumption I make and #2 doesn't prove what you want it to, you have no rational argument against my position. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:51 Ace wrote: because you'd have to pretty stupid to believe someone who's about to die as their last line" I know Ace's playing style - he's Mafia lynch him!" and when she flips innocent you assume she knows what she was talking about even though she barely paid attention to the game. I win. You know very stupid players are in both games, waiting to be led around by the nose. That would be exactly why you died. Not like Caller's NOT in this game, or the quality of players towers above him on average. That said, the "i know his style, lol, i am right" argument was your initial gloss for Ver. | ||
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On May 21 2009 10:56 MTF wrote: I agree with everything in the first two sentences. The problem is they are complete "what if" situations to you. For the third, however...Help me understand this. Assume that you are right, and Ace is Mafia. Why would Mafia not have voted him in sooner or secured him a strong spot in the election earlier on, so as to avoid the very suspicion you are putting on him? Was Nemy just a convenient cover for a sudden five-six votes to switch over to him? And assuming further that both are mafia: Was the plan just to get Ver in first and then the Nemy situation happened, so they figured, hell, why not try to get both of them in? Or was Nemy an intentional part of it? See the problem I have with your scenario? Why would Mafia not have voted him in sooner? Because mafia already HAD him in prior to nemY. Ver had a commanding lead, showtime had like 3 votes and Ace was sitting above that. No point stacking people on, might as well sprinkle mafia on other targets to lay low. When nemY happened, mafia didn't 'want' to have to voteswing Ace in, but nemY's candidacy forced some people to switch to him. Obviously you examine each voter independantly, but there are a number of late Ace voters that are fishy. Tricode, for instance, has been either been playing consistently stupid (and given last game I sadly concede that he's potentially that stupid without ulterior motives. So what do I do regarding a player like tricode? How do I crack his motivations? Well, I need date from Ace to complete the picture. Basically you're saying "mafia could have done many things" which is true. What doesn't change, however, is that mafia will push their members into office given a chance, and during this election there was clearly an opportunity go go x2 office, which is why I think we should prepare for that possibility. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:01 MTF wrote: The point is, L, that you are really the only person who strongly feels Ace is Mafia and wasting a vote on him today does not feel worth it. Additionally, some may feel as I do about the voting pattern in that it is irrelevant for the moment who voted for Ace near the end of the last election, due to the Nemy situation. It only becomes relevant if more evidence builds up against Ace or, tenuously, if Nemy turns up red. I am not the only one who suspects Ace. By a longshot. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:09 MTF wrote: O, and seeing as you're looking for voting stuff, look at the current situation: Ver's Mayoral Voter List: BloodyC0bbler Caller Scaramanga Mynock 0cz3c dreamflower RebirthOfLeGenD Vivi57 iNfuNdiBuLuM Incognito <-- from Showtime Malongo <-- from Ace LucasWoJ Ace Current Lynching List: L nemY dreamflower Amber[Light] Bockit <-- from Ver Plexa BloodyC0bbler <-- from Plexa Scaramanga <-- from Ver Italics are overlapped. Dreamflower has only ever posted in the thread to defend herself and Scaramanga has been even more inactive, yet they both voted in Ver and are both gunning for Ace. If Ver is Mafia and some of those who voted for him also are, and now they want to switch over to Ace, they're doing a pretty poor job of it right now. This type of information becomes crystal clear when we find out who is who . That's exactly why I want to blow away the confusion. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:13 Bockit wrote: It's pretty crystal clear simply if Ver flips red, who we all suspect anyway. That information doesn't require Ace to be flipped. Not really, that's the problem. If we only get information on Ver there's plenty of room for valid actions coming from both town and mafia with respect to both of the voting lists. WE NEED THE INFORMATION. Also, Ver, I really don't care if you're innocent. I need your information. I'm not going to stop asking that you get Vig after we kill Ace, or get doubled after we kill Ace. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:15 Tricode wrote: You know you're getting on my nervs. Keep me out of your stupid tangents and raves. You have brought my name quite a few times with a few insults here and there. If you can take some consideration, my last game was the first time I was ever townie. Before that I was just thrown into mafia with out a shit of a clue in what to do. Now if you would like to call me stupid this game. I would like you to present me with some sort of reasoning, other wise stop being a emotional cry baby about how since I didn't agree with you early on in the game = me being stupid. Why would you get offended that I call you stupid when you admit it a phrase before complaining about it? Derp Derp. Its the content of your posts rather than your position that make me think you're a dumb shit. Ace disagrees with me but I think he's being very smart about how he presents his arguments (or lack thereof). You, on the other hand? Dumb. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:29 Tricode wrote: What the hell are you talking about? Dude, i have been reading your posts about me, if you have a problem with what i have to say, have some reasonable argument and how it is stupid. It's not that I'm really offended I'm more annoyed with the crap you have to say. Also last that I checked, I seen more people calling you a dumb ass rather then me ;p . I also never admited about me being stupid. So i don't know what you are talking about. Either learn to read or stop saying crap. Ok lol. Better hope they dont' both turn red. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:37 Tricode wrote: Meh, if are going to kill them both, i hope they both turn red. I rather not waste time killing an innocent. I don't really want to help the mafia out. Though if one of them do turn to be townie, what should we say about you? Seems like you're a bit trigger happy buddy, ready to kill anyone that didn't agree with you eh? Its not that you don't agree with me, Its your position on the voter lists which make you suspicious. There are a number of people who don't agree with me that I think are perfectly innocent. See: MTF. Could be wrong, but that's one of the side benefits of trying to hit Ver/Dreamflower on Day 3: If MTF's clue analysis is spot on, he would have to have been an incredibly ballsy mafia player to seal the deal on two of his allies. Now do you see why I think getting both out of the way is useful? There's such a treasure trove of information waiting to be given to us in the case of ANY outcome besides double innocent. | ||
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But glaring mistakes are pretty much ignored by the town, because your post had 2 and most of your posts contain one if not more. I like your coolacecucumber return to form, though. Shoulda kept that up the entire game. | ||
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Nevermind. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:49 Ace wrote: Naw, I tried to keep cool last game for too long and drunken Caller killed me. If I don't shout they don't pay attention to people's mistakes. Someone just said your style this game and last game were the same as evidence you're innocent. You now state the opposite but didn't call it our early. k. But srsly, coulda avoided so much hassle if you kept things civil T_T. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:50 Tricode wrote: L, i'll give you this. Yeah there might be a treasure trove of information. But now you are saying you are picking me if they both turn red cause i voted for Ace? Either case, if Ver dies and turns blue. That treasure of information will be how poop just came out of someone's ass and landed on our faces. Anyways let's see what happens. If we do have to kill both then I suggest Ace. If ver is telling the truth, vig can just hit him. he will lose that 1 up but if vig calls out on it, then we can at least keep ver alive. So we don't lose as much. No, i didn't say you're auto red. I said I'd go back and look at your posts again with the knowledge we have. If Ver dies and flips blue, most people agree Ace is mafia. If Ace is mafia and we've voted for 2x lynch, we're fucked. Note how fucking ROBUST my plan is. IF shit goes wrong, we get out around even. IF shit goes awesome we have a roadmap to end the game. Lynching Ver first completely ASSFUCKS us if we get it wrong. | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:50 Ace wrote: I've just highlighted the part of your post that will send you to the chopping block. Don't think we forgot about how you were linked to a clue before either. See you on hmm...Day 3 on that double lynch block? Yea, sounds about right. You just fucked up REALLY hard. Go check your statement and your vote today : ). | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:56 Ace wrote: Let me get this straight (holding in laughter) Ver sends you a PM, fishing for info. He claims medic or DT (even though you have no clue about what other blues he could have known) and you think because he kept you alive - he must be innocent? ... ... So...you come with this "evidence" near the lynch deadline. Showing up with Ver and his magical pixie buddies. However - there IS one thing you just did - you just fucked Ver over. Lets read between the lines. Ver asks you if your a medic or a DT right? He didn't ask about Bodyguard?! Which would kinda mean he'd know who the Bodyguards were. And you said this occured well before Day 2 which means it happened BEFORE the bodyguards died. Good going smart guy - you just proved that Ver indeed had to know who the Bodyguards were. BOOM! Lol, what. there's no proof of that at all. Ver could have been uninterested in finding bodyguards or already Pm'd by mikey and didn't want to hit both. More than that, look at the content of the fucking post: how would he analyse dreamflower's role if bodyguard is given after the election. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL That said, i disagree with other portions of dreamflower's post and dont' doubt there's a mafia there. That's why chopping block + day 3 already has her guillotine ready | ||
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On May 21 2009 11:59 Ace wrote: where's the fun and amusement if no one is insulted? :/ Look at how civil Ozc or whatever is in his posts and no one reads those shits. Yeah, but he has an erratic voting pattern and is hiding something . There's fun there too :3. | ||
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On May 21 2009 12:00 Ace wrote: I voted for Ver. Which statement are you talking about? Talking about double lynch day 3 when 1) we currently aren't going to get one by the current vote count. 2) you aren't voting for it. | ||
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On May 21 2009 12:04 Ace wrote: A better question is how could he possibly analyze dreamflower's posts when she barely posted anything at that point. ^_^ But yea she just jumped on the train post so I guess she's gone Day 3. Lack of posts and the profile thread indicates a town disposition that doesn't want to be discovered. A long term blue role: Dt or medic. I don't really give a shit about Ver's suspicions because he's going to die and we can talk about them more later, but its pretty open and shut how he'd figure shit like that out. That's how he sniped the majority of blues last game. | ||
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wtf, you fucked up again ^_^. | ||
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People that need to die today Ace . | ||
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On May 21 2009 12:31 Ace wrote: come on, people can't literally be thinking "shit I'm a Dt better act shifty" - actually nevermind. I just remembered how last game went. Took a while. | ||
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On May 21 2009 12:35 Malongo wrote: Caller: Mafia KP=3 2 veterans in the game. DO YOU RUN AS MAYOR? Hell NO. Malongo: You are town, you know you can get office. Do you run as mayor? HELL YES. If you know you can get office, you get it. If you're blue, the spot isn't in red hands. If you're red, it isn't in blue hands. What shitty fucking analysis. | ||
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Kinda sad Tricode didnt' just plop another vote on ver at the last minute. That woulda been fun. Doesn't help Ver though as he's scum Lol Tracil. | ||
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Then we take the first day votes and see where people voted. From that we compile that information with independant clue information. This is why I waited so long to post my plan: to get unbiased unplan-touched clue analysis. Town provided like.. 2 scraps worth, so I went ahead. | ||
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On May 21 2009 12:44 Ace wrote: Caller if you've read this thread and can't come to the conclusion by now then there's nothing I can do for you. Vote how you please. There are enough arguments that don't deal with L that I've made about Ver some pages way in the back there. Oh well. ONCE AGAIN Ver's guilt does not mean YOU aren't guilty. | ||
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You dying is more like you initiating with earthshaker. You might die and be innocent and have played properly, but the town gains even if that's the case. I know people switching now are suspicious. I think when Vivi and Tricode vote it will be suspicious either way. That's exactly why I need to know who is who, so I can go back and decode WHY people have been acting the way they are. If some sketchy mafia are trying to get you killed, I can CONFIRM THAT post death. As for the speed of our killing, if you're 100% certain Dream and Ver are mafia, we chop KP for Night 3 regardless of how you flip. There is NO downside to this. We trade a double lynch for a VAST amount of information. | ||
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On May 21 2009 12:54 Caller wrote: good. As if the last minute vote switching of everybody else isn't sketchy? Isn't it weird that suddenly a lot of people started voting for Ace? Isn't it weird that this sudden change is within 45 minutes before lynch closes? Personally I don't really think either are mafia. But this sudden changing of votes has me worried. You're part of that sudden change of votes. If you were suspicious of people who are on the lists voting now, we could figure out their stories with the confirmation of mafia/town post lynch of Ace and Ver and your suspicions would come to good use. We would be doing so on Day 4 with another 2 days worth of clue analysis and 2 days worth of mafia hits to give us information. So why the fuck would you say: Yo, guys, don't fling mud, that's weird, then toss a gigantic glob of it with the intention of fucking the town out of its best bet? I just dont' get that. I don't think i CAN get that. This is why I want to know what Ace/Ver flip. If you ARE mafia, i will be able to see you early on the Ver list. I will see your fucking retarded voting here. I will be able to examine what a mafia would do in that situation. | ||
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If there is an extra hit tonight which corresponds with you, done. Problem solved. If not we proceed with tomorrow's double hit. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:03 Ace wrote: Ver gets modkilled. Have dreamflower if she's legit just end BCs miserable stay in this town, or Incog because he's a gump. I don't know if we can assume Ver will ask for a modkill if he's mafia. Better to just laugh at us and absorb another lynch, or msg Qatol on msn and go "lol i lied ^_^" or some shit. Does my caution seem reasonable here? I haven't fully analysed the entire modkill business yet, so opinions are helpful. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:07 Bockit wrote: L if you wanted proof that Ace is innocent, I think this rush of votes from highly suspected mafia players is proof enough. Stop letting the fact that he disagrees with you bias your judgement on his innocence. It isn't proof. I would throw up 1-2 people after some legit players tipped the voting too. Either way, look at the RESULT. I DONT KNOW ACE IS INNOCENT. NEITHER DO YOU. GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:08 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: What if Ace gets lynched, so she vigi's Ver, who happened to not be bullshitting about being a vet? Even if both are blue, we cant' confirm innocence unless Ver flips red on kill. Either both bullshit about the hit, which is likely because they're both going to die day 3 anyways, or Ver dies to a clue linking to dream and she's proven correct. Still working out the rest of the details, thanks for your input here. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:12 Malongo wrote: BTW I JUST BET 10 BUCKS THAT L IS MAFIA: PAY IN FULLTILT (JUST GREEN PLAYERS PLEASE) Malongo is still angry about the balance discussion after last game. Plz less rage. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:15 Ace wrote: Wait L - WAIT! Look at Bockits last post! Look at Bockits last post! Look at Bockits last post! Look at Bockits last post! Look at Bockits last post! Look at Bockits last post! Look at Bockits last post! Ver made a deal but it's not a guaranteed modkill! It's a false pretense! L come on man you know what to do! I agree. That's why I'm not accepting the modkill as a replacement for the vig hit. Dreamflower MUST hit the target that doesn't go down tonight because we can't trust ver to kill himself. If dream IS legit, mafia know it. Mafia are going to rape your pretty little flower ass anyways, so fire now. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:15 Malongo wrote: Shhhhh i need to increase my bankroll. Seriously, offer valid to 1 non dt-townie. Pm if you want the deal. I bet L IS mafia. Can I bet? Can we seriously make a contract and bet higher stakes? Please? | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:16 Bockit wrote: Do you admit that is clearly a bandwagon being formed by mafia here? I'll know when Ace/Ver flip. There's a bit too much going on without those simplifying pieces of information, but yes, there seems to have been a bandwagon formed today. We'll just find out for whom tomorrow morning. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:17 Caller wrote: L I just talked to Qatol You are misspoken Ver just asked if he could be modkilled and Qatol said yes. That's it. I am not misspoken. I said there is no deal and we can't be certain either way. Qatol posted in the thread saying as much. Ace agrees. Qatol's post agrees. Reread the last 2 pages, please. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:19 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I think requesting modkill points to being innocent. Reasoning: it lets us know his alignment without wasting a town kill. Also if he's going to be inactive again, it would be better to get rid of himself so the town isn't arguing about like we did all Day Circumstantial evidence. If he's red and so is dreamflower, this is also a perfectly valid play to get people off his nuts. Either way nothing can be proven. Killing them proves shit. Lets get some fucking CONFIRMED INFORMATION please. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:20 Malongo wrote: Wrong again MR MAFIA. If ver doesnt modkill himself WHY THE HELL TO WASTE A HIT IF WE HAVE A DOUBLE LYNCH? YOU ARE MAFIA L Because dreamflower rolecalled and we can see her vig hit in clues during morning. If she is not lying she is very likely to die tonight. The hit is wasted if she dies, and we just get another slot open for our double hit during day 3, as well as the full list information from which to populate suspects. I've been okay with a vig hit since like TWENTY FUCKING PAGES AGO WHEN BOCKIT SUGGESTED IT. WHY WASNT I MAFIA BACK THEN YOU SNOTTY FACED CUNTFLAP? OH BECAUSE YOU'RE A FUCKING RETARD. Get over last game malongo. Please. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:25 Qatol wrote: Correct. No deals. If he says he wants it, it will happen though. (sorry I am being positively bombarded right now.) So what if Ver says he doesn't want to be modkilled to you, but claims differently in this thread? Is his first instance of wanting modkill enough to kill him? If so, is he already going to die because he asked for it? why the fuck are these new rules coming out with like 20 minutes left to voting end, you fucking retard? | ||
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fucking switch my vote to LTT Reason: Chuiu. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:31 Malongo wrote: Do it in the right thread or you are plain mafia. This is the real deal, you know. LTT is running the game. So is Qatol. .... It was a joke :/ | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:31 Ace wrote: no Inf, I'm certainly not confused. Ver is mafia/traitor. He told you guys "lol kill ace yo I promise I'd mod kill myself to prove it to you guys ez!" and Qatol just said IF Ver asks for it he will do it. DUH! He just won't ask for it. L how many dunce caps do we have left? Vivi is holding like 8 and I'm running out. Vivi's pretty dumb, yes. Also suspicious on votelists. I like that combination : ). | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:33 Qatol wrote: Please do not use that kind of language with me. What else do you expect me to do though? I'm trying to make the fairest decision I can in this position. It isn't like being modkilled doesn't have consequences beyond this game..... But I would rather not have players just posting to troll the game. Ver says he is considering doing that. Nothing I can do about it. If he decides he will, I will have to modkill him. If he says he doesn't want to be modkilled to me but claims otherwise in the thread, I will just correct him. So if Ver asks for a Modkill in thread, you will kill him guaranteed regardless of any other information. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:36 Ace wrote: REMEMBER TO READ MY POSTS ESPECIALLY THE LAST ONE WITH ALL THOSE INSTRUCTIONS TO OWN THE FUCKING MAFIA! DO NOT FORGET YOU FUCKTARDS!!! Can someone make a list of all Ace's posts in this thread? Dreamflower you seem to be able to write scripts, can you do this asap? | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:45 Ver wrote: LOL. That's just sad. Ok I'm gonna modkill myself. Any final requests? I'll stay on and take them before I go. Finally I can be done and take a break from mafia (I'm sitting out next game too I'm sick of it). Release all of your PMs. They'll be fairly useful. To: Qatol. When will Ver die? | ||
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Go. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:57 Ver wrote: I have around 120-130 pm's. I'm apathetic as it is no way am I posting that. Ask for specific info instead. Fair enough. Simple version: Who do you suspect now that ace has turned up blue and the specific PMs that support that. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:11 Ace wrote: Check it - infundibulum and RoL just zerg rushed too. Take dreamflower off my list until another person claims Vigi. With 6 players Mafia won't want to or hope that an inactive Vigi was the case. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS - clear the Vigi issue first. Once thats done, go back to voting list of zerg rushers. Your FIRST suspect should be BC, second should be RebirthofLegend and Incognito. Then and only then shall you move on to nemy. Don't drop the fucking ball on this. Medic - of all people not to protect tonight DO NOT protect anyone that voted to have me lynched. DO NOT FUCK THIS UP. There should only be ONE person on that list you should even be thinking about protecting and it's so fucking obvious I wont even say it. Last but not least, READ my posts. There are tons of little hints in them. I'm going to quote this and bring it to our attention. Once Ace's full list of quotes are out I'll suggest we go through those together as town too. There is a LOT of finger pointing that Ace did that I agree with. A lot of fishy voting and supporting that that went down. I will post a full analysis of Ace's suspicions, why they mirror my own in many cases, and what we can do with the full list of voters once we figure out what Ver is. | ||
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On May 21 2009 15:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok guys. Now in the horrible shock of all this. We should now be looking for prime mafia candidates. I'm assuming L, that you have no issue with us getting on track now? GIT R DONE. We have plenty of info to go on at this point. I'm re-reading old posts atm from day one. | ||
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In particular: Plexa. MrBabyHands. Give a reason for your incredibly sparse posting. Give me the results of your behind the scenes work. Town: We need to hit 2 mafia in the coming day or we will be significantly behind. If we can knock 2 out, however, we are in a good position to win. | ||
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Wait for me, lol. Rereading this thread is fucking tiring. Every page is like a list of regrets. | ||
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nemY's probably mafia. In fact, when the day 3 rolls around, I'm pretty sure it'll be 100% confirmed for various reasons. Tricode, I am 90% certain, is a fucking stupid townie, but a townie nonetheless. Mynock, I am 90% certain, is legit as well. Scamp looks very red :3 Some thoughts. Ace and Ver were innocent. During the opening phases of the election, mafia would have likely put 1 or 2 on either/or in order to be able to cut support and spread out their members in order to hide them. Mafia would have a candidate running, though. Likely Showtime. Earlier on the scene than nemY, showtime had a burst of votes very quickly on the premise that he's a douchebag. Bandwagon forming activity which was then abandoned rapidly when Ace said that all candidates would be checked. Ver pulled far ahead and mafia realized that even with a 2 vote swing (from Ver to Showtime), Ver could remove support from showtime and end the incipient steal. After abandoning Showtime, nemY pops up and then goes afk for the majority of the game after failing at getting office. | ||
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On May 22 2009 06:07 Tricode wrote: Hey, I'm 110% your the most retard townie here. Every person you seem to want to lynch turns out to be a townie. You only accuse townies so far we got a count of 2 people. Congrats fucktard. I onn the other hand was very hesitant to vote for them. Not because i believed they were 100% townies, but because i wasn't sure they were actually mafia yet, though i did find things odd. So in those regards, you are a well played mafia/traitor or you are on a newb killing spree. Have fun killing more innocents. Token retard post. Lol he insulted me, maybe I'll call him mafia in return That's quite useful. | ||
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On May 22 2009 07:08 HeavOnEarth wrote: hey stop that you're supposed to be mean so i can have an incentive to argue Also, one thing that L assumed(?) in lynching ace or ver is that the blue's had to have roleclaimed to Ver or Ace. This is obviously not true. . . Well, not quite. If there was a roleclaim, it would mean that Ver shared the knowledge of a BG. That's one of the reasons I wanted his full list of PMs, but he kinda lazied out of this game. That said, it DOES seem far more likely that there was blue analysis going on, but that can't explain BODYGUARDS. It does explain fishball. We'll know more by the volume of blue hits we receive tonight. | ||
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I just woke up. Need to speak to you. | ||
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This is also why I started 'shit' up with nemY. Figured rather make him less attractive to mafia to kill by making controversy around him to feign debasement of his findings and provide a potential innocent target to try to swing to during tomorrow's double. Also, MBH has been talking to me behind the scenes. He guessed my role correctly. His suspicion list is nearly Identical, in part, to my own. The key for the following night is going to be getting that detective information blended in with the clue analysis and behavioral analysis to confirm some solid theories people have about mafia. If I die, I sincerely hope you guys can keep it fucking civil and stick to the evidence in front of you. Its been good times. I need to stop being an insomniac so I can write this shit out earlier and not be racing against the clock. | ||
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There's going to be an avalanche of high quality analysis posted tomorrow. lets have fun watching the game from the sidelines, now, caller. | ||
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On May 22 2009 14:16 Caller wrote: oh and by the way i was actually the last dt If true: rofl, cocks. | ||
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On May 24 2009 14:07 Vivi57 wrote: one minute fuck I fail at this game You had such a good chance, too. | ||
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Nemy was planning to pull out. Doesn't matter if he does. that's the problem :3if mafia were co-ordinated, a double townie lynch was game over, and they were a single vote away from getting it. The way the lists are stacked now its obvious who's mafia and who's not. I mean, c'mon guys. NOT voting for double lynch when we sacrificed SO much to be able to throw 2 out in a row to cut down KP? Shoulda been a big "lol we got handed a list of mafia" sign. | ||
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On May 24 2009 14:43 Bockit wrote: What do people think about dt roleclaiming to get elected? Perfectly valid gambit. Never works. Huge power play if it does. | ||
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On May 24 2009 14:44 Incognito wrote: nemY I hate you....or is it my fault? *edit Also why give up...I don't see how you guys would have lost even with vivis death... .I don't see how you guys would have lost even with vivis death... The vote train and voting activity was BLATANT. they were obviously trying the all-in push we did day 5 last game, but it failed. | ||
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Its seriously rage material when you know the game's over, but you're on the wrong side because one person just afk'd. I was pretty fucking raged when I overslept the night I was killed. I had SO much more information to pass onto people : (. | ||
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In all fairness, there was a HUGE bandwagon attempt, but town should be running the numbers on their chances of survival to see how ambitious mafia are going to be with the votes. | ||
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When MBH told me he was done clue analysis, I figured "mafia know me, I die tonight" or "solid mafia leads" tomorrow. I started setting up people who i was certain were blue with information, but since i kinda got back late, i couldn't give everyone the full story. I really didn't expect the hit on dreamflower, but in retrospect that was one of my large mistakes: i should have realized that if blue, a confirmed townie essentially ended the game, and that it would have been a priority hit for mafia. | ||
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Was a very good choice killing me when you did. | ||
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On May 24 2009 18:03 Ace wrote: Yea, Scamp woulda been hard to implicate as he really seemed like a clueless player. I disagree. His activity and voting record were very, very strong pointers against him. But that's coming from the only guy to actually say shit about him, so I'm probably wrong on that point ^_^. | ||
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Then again, when you have a player like tricode making himself an obvious quickstriker-like retard target... | ||
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On May 25 2009 10:45 Tricode wrote: Why do you even speak? Please man up and just say you screwed up in the game and stop trying to point fingers by saying I was the stupid one. I don't know why you keep trying to make me look stupid. You have hardly anyone agreeing with you. So I request you please stop. Pretty sure all the decent players agree you played terribly. :3 Deal with it. | ||
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On May 25 2009 13:04 Ace wrote: your talking about the very last night, I'm telling you you had it lost days before that. If you really think you had it that easy then you wouldn't have felt the need to quit. you fail. GG. Well, yes and no. If town had 2-3 more players who were active, yes. But they didn't, so no. Then again, look at the replies here. People are like 'LOL ITS NOT THE TOWN'S JOB TO THINK", "PLEASE GUIDE US IN A SHEEP-LIKE MANNER". Maybe 2-3 people wouldn't have done anything afterall :3. | ||
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On May 26 2009 00:49 Tricode wrote: Yet I think they can probably agree I did better then you :3 so stop take a breath and realize that FAIL and you are the same thing. Not because you played horribly but because of what you are trying to do right now with me. Once again. I ask you to take it like a man and shut the fuck up. Go think about your damn mistakes. That's what I will be doing. Negative. I pinned you as a stupid townie, didn't I? :3 | ||
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On May 26 2009 04:20 Tricode wrote: I'm done with this game. If you feel that accomplished that you pinned me down as a townie, congrats and big deal? You accomplished nothing. I am going to ignore your posts about me now. This is getting no where and I'm sure others are getting annoyed. This very auto-aggressive defence when criticized is exactly what I'm talking about. It makes you too suspicious as a townie, and sets you up for a mafia seeded fake clue interpretation or behavioral analysis. Its really quite difficult when sniffing out mafia to have to sift through townies that are self incriminating. That's not to say that you were the only one to play poorly. I should have kept my prot on dreamflower, bockit played fairly poorly. incognito played poorly, ver played absolutely terribly, etc. Ace played his role perfectly well and we provided a massive amount of information for the town. For instance, Reading objectively: We set a plan in motion to get 2 sequential double lynches in motion, right? We sacrificed a lot to get it set up, but then on day 3 there's a massive streak of people who don't vote for double, and the issue of double is not brought up in the thread at all? That should have been a KLAXON of "dem fukerz is mafia" blaring into your ear. I mean, there's so much more, SO much more information that was out there during day 3, but its like people just didn't want to bother reading the thread. | ||
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On May 26 2009 09:07 Camlito wrote: I think i helped alot. MVP. | ||
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On May 26 2009 07:50 BloodyC0bbler wrote: L, after all the shit we kept spewing, bumping pages of new posts, who wants to go back and re-read hehe Yeah, this is why I say I vastly overestimated the skill of the town. There were maybe 2-3 important posts per page and its rather easy to zoom in on them. When I gave the town the method of searching for specific posts, I figured they would use that to cross check what confirmed innocents were saying. I also assumed that the town would specifically look at the last incriminations I made. -> Scamp -> Showtime! -> nemY (which i revoked right before the vote b/c I was hoping that pointing a finger at him would make him less likely to get hit, and I had like 4 targets I wanted to keep up). Overall, this game really drove home how marketing you need to be. Just throw some fucking colours into your post and call people idiots when they're making perfectly rational and logical analysis. | ||
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Typically town members die off in larger numbers early because mafia are steering people and keeping their heads down and there's very little in the way of clue continuity. Day 1 gives nearly zero and the mayoral lynch is always off, Day 2 gives the first series of real clues. Day 3 you guys fucked up and lost. I don't see many games in which mafia get consistently hit during day 1 or 2. Time is always against mafia; more clues, more vote lists, more posts = more evidence and more accurate shots. I mean, what exactly are you trying to say? That the town could not have possibly seen through what was happening day 3? | ||
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