EPTvrooooommmm
TL Mafia 5 [Game Over]
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
vrooooommmm | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
I can guarantee a mafia lynch on day one AND day two. I'd even put real cash on it. Thats confidence. Thats why I can win. The question isnt about strategy-- its about drive and instinct. Forget this "past game performance" crap. Its worthless. If you want to see the mafia get smoked, let me show you what I can do. Like i said-- 2 mafia GUARANTEED. And by the time Day 3 rolls around, I will have pulled the rest of the mafia from their crevices like a dentist pulling teeth. One.by.one. I also have an afro and wear shades (often). ![[image loading]](http://greek9.com/tux/babyhands.png) | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 18 2009 04:22 semioldguy wrote: Incarcerating people who were medic-saved probably won't work. Here's why: Someone who is suspected as Mafia is less likely to be targeted for a Mafia night-time kill, meaning they won't necessarily have to be protected during the night and more likely to live until morning. If they are indeed guilty, then we potentially lower the killing power for a night and will have someone to for sure lynch the next day. If they are innocent, then we will have confirmed someone with a lot of suspicion as being innocent, which is good for a potential suspects list. there's no way to know if the person who's incarcerated is mafia this way. since the mafia doesnt have to use all their kill power every night, watching for a change in KP wont work. If an innocent gets locked up, the mafia can just nix their own KP temporarily, making the prisoner appear guilty. i agree that the jail should be used for the mafia-- at the very least it'll reduce their KP if we get it right. But its not good for verifying if they are mafia or not. A smart mafia would see this weakness and use it against the town. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
in most games, the mafia are either actively trying to get elected, or are in the back trying not to attract attention. The later is the case for this game. There is very little bandwagoning and lots of strategic talk. Mafia are just watching at this point. Which tells us that: quatol caller bw semioldguy pyrr bloddycobbler are all very likely innocent. i also know a blue role-- they'd been hinting at it for a while in this thread (prolly subconsciously-- even more proof of their innocence). i doubt anybody else has even picked up on it. I'll PM them to let them know to be more cautious. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 18 2009 05:56 Qatol wrote: You are correct about Millers. However, there isn't really anything that can be done about it. We have to treat millers as mafiosos early on at least. i disagree. i think the difference between mafia and millers can be determined by their actions and their post content. i think this is a game about people, not logical strategies. find me someone who shows up red during an investigation-- a basic post and personality analysis can tell you if you got the right person or not. the signs of people lying can be detected, even over the ether. this is a factor i think a lot of people are underestimating. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:07 Qatol wrote: Yes but that can only be done with a sufficient amount of data hence the "early on" part. Also, it cannot be done with some of the players (Ace comes to mind). we have all the data we need. past games and regular forum posts are excellent resources to a persons online personality and playing style. all players are vulnerable in this-- some more than others. but nobody is immune. lol, i'll show you what i mean once things get poppin. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:15 BWdero wrote: BabyHands, what makes you so sure mafia aren't trying to get elected? the people who made compelling arguments for being elected are also the ones finding the holes in the strategies others propose. a mafia wouldn't do nearly as much in such a situation. it behooves an elected mafia to commit to following a flawed plan. This is how people think. the people i listed are innocent. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:42 LucasWoJ wrote: This right here is how people think. Even Steven Pinker admits to knowing nothing about another's thoughts or how the mind processes them.  I'm going to read the thread after page 9 and see what's come up. Summary on the candidates running? Its true-- we cant know about a person's thoughts or what they think... or even how they think. But we CAN predict their behaviors fairly accurately. perhaps i should rephrase then. "This is how people act." would be more appropriate. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I think it's way to early for a post like this. Some mafia may just be inactive noobs like with the last game. this kinda supports my claim that the mafia havent been posting On March 18 2009 06:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: And mafia can be pretty diverse in how much they post I know when I was in MTF's mafia I talked incessantly (as I did last game as a DT). And we were pretty organized but still we all talked different amounts. All Caller has posted that I've noticed is a post to say he's running and a post to quietly say he's not. I guess maybe something came up but usually he's super active and seemed pretty pumped to participate a few days ago and internal to the game all I can see to motivate him pulling out of the race is that he started running before role PMs and then rolled red at which point he felt the need to slink away from the inevitable DT checks. But external to the game plenty of things may have come up and I can't debate that. if the mafia has few experienced people, then they wont be very diverse at all. and i read the last game-- you guys didnt seem that organized to me. lol i understand where you're coming from. i just know that i'm better at figuring people out than they are at hiding. its kinda funny tho-- by addressing my list, you are actually proving your innocence even more. a mafia member wouldnt intentionally cast doubt on a list that says they are innocent. but an innocent trying to help to town would. either way, those people are good. as the game progresses, you will see that.  | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
| ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 19 2009 04:25 Scooter wrote: After much consideration, I vote for BloodyC0bbler not to pick anyone out... but if you dont mind, can i hear your rationale? since you spent time considering it, there must have been some concerns you had | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 19 2009 04:55 Mandalor wrote: MrBabyhand's idea is based fully on behavioural analysis which is fine to a certain extent, but obviously he trusts that too much. People on tl.net are not sheep. I was killed because of this when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia. While behavioural analysis might be right in like 70% of all cases, saying stuff like i disagree. i think a skilled player can nail the mafia with amazingly high odds using behavioral analysis. much higher than 70% On March 19 2009 04:55 Mandalor wrote: You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive. they are. and they make mistakes-- they overcompensate or underperform. they have slight imperfections in their posts and sometimes they try so hard to look innocent that it backfires. mafia are under more pressure than innocents, and 9 times out of 10, you can tell if you know where to look. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
First Test: Yesterday, i said "the mafia arent being active. they arent running for office. and they arent posting their thoughts" Today, we have 3 people that have stood out to me. People who didnt contribute much yesterday, but posted contributory thoughts (not just 1 or 2 sentences) today: mandalor, MC, and ver Second Test: Yesterday, I posted a list of the people I believe are innocent. Some people questioned it. Since i was sure the mafia werent online or participating at the time, questioning such a list is certainly something the logged-on innocents would do. But a lot changes in a night. Today, i fully expected the mafia to read yesterday's posts, including my list. I also expected them to notice that i said "questioning the list is something an innocent would do." So, if the mafia read that, I would expect them to start doing just that-- questioning the list in an attempt to appear as innocent as the others. Of the 3 people i identified earlier, one of them also questioned the list: mandalor In addition, mandalor's direct response to the list was -------- On March 19 2009 04:55 Mandalor wrote: You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive. -------- In my experience, it's usually the mafia that explicitly defends a quality of the mafia (in this case, he defended the mafia's intelligence). I am now convinced that mandalor is mafia. how is that for behavioral analysis? | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
| ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
i dont think ver did a vigi hit. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
Some articles fell from his pocket, torn ticket stubs, old popcorn, a dried up white flower; just trash he had picked up from the ground. He got up and ...grabbed him from the back of his head. He slammed Camlito into a chair several times. ...finished him off with a final crushing blow. really strong; physically powerful. warrior. collects trash, like a bum or a homeless guy. He successfully pushed his way through and ran towards the door, though once he opened it a small explosion triggered at several places i feel like the mafia in this case tricked scarramanga. like he taunted him on purpose and let him think he could escape, but waited for him to open the door so he could trigger the bomb. maybe looking for a trickster. also it might be someone good with pyrotechnics and explosives. But then there was one left. Ver had been fighting off someone pathetic at fighting.... What Ver thought was a pathetic person came back after his knife... Ver slashed at him and he almost took a nasty gash to one of his arms. looking for someone/thing thats not good at physical fighting, but is still no pushover and is very capable. multiple arms-- could mean just 2, or more than 2. i have some loose ideas of who might fit this description. and what looked like a biker full of snake tattoos, crosses, and other shit he couldn't make out. bikers ride bikes (motorcycles). scooters are like motorcycle wannabes. thats the one that really jumps out at me. | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
ver specifically called out two people-- only one of them is alive. i still think we should lynch mandalor today. ##I vote to lynch mandalor | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 21 2009 21:49 malongo wrote: -The three number. At first this made me think of 3 lions, but theres one more person: [r]tricode[/r], wich is quite more suspicious since his profile is empty (thus forcing the three reference). ... this guy looks QUITE suspicious to me, im 80% sure hes mafia. -The guy that cant fight and ties ver reminds me of the Dark Archon and could be MoC (this is not really related) good catch on the tricode thing. i must've missed that post. MoC was who i originally thought of for the "bad at fighting" clue as well. In fact, besides the biker = scooter thing, MoC would be my next suspect based on the clues. I'm not convinced about Rice tho | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 22 2009 02:59 Tricode wrote: I am going to go with SOG's information since it holds merit. Unless someone can prove Mandalor is a miller or convince me otherwise. I vote for Mandalor. tricode... what do you think about malongo's post below? On March 21 2009 21:49 malongo wrote: -The three number. At first this made me think of 3 lions, but theres one more person: [r]tricode[/r], wich is quite more suspicious since his profile is empty (thus forcing the three reference). I havent read too much from him, but he voted BC and came up with this post this guy looks QUITE suspicious to me, im 80% sure hes mafia. I would have to agree with him, that post you made did look suspicious-- you havent been very active, then you post near the end of the night. It almost looks like you're just posting to not appear completely inactive. and the "I'm kinda confused" seems a bit superfluous-- adding more details about yourself than necessary and possible offering an explanation for asking the question in the first place. a self-validated post. Combined with the constant references to "3" in the clues... somethings not sitting right. what do you think about all this? | ||
|
MrBabyHands
United States72 Posts
On March 23 2009 04:07 Caller wrote: Again: People: I exhort you to ignore rice for now. The clue is not completely correct: Nothing in that picture suggests that the people can move quickly about chairs. If anything, this clue is about ninjas, which as I have mentioned before may point to chaoser. If you realistically think that the clue points to that obvious of a person, chances are you're either bandwagoning or a mafiaso. Bandwagoning is B.A.D. i co-sign this. evidence against Rice is sketchy at best. we have much more suspicious people to look at. | ||
| ||
