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TL Mafia 4 - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Trezeguet
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States2656 Posts
February 28 2009 16:03 GMT
#241
And so it began...

One brave citizen has risen from the masses to lead. Is he signing his own hit? His enemies lie waiting, but his fellow supporters are aligning their efforts to thwart the evil.....
Dyno.
Profile Joined August 2008
United States286 Posts
February 28 2009 16:03 GMT
#242
I'd like to once again remind our paramedics to please protect me tonight. I will be without my extra life, and it's imperative that I stay alive for this plan to work.
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5464 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-02-28 16:07:20
February 28 2009 16:05 GMT
#243
Detectives: Can you ask if the "benign" clue points to inertinept?
You guys have daily powers so at this point it is fine to check him out. Hopefully we had a lucky Day 1 clue analysis and this pays off. If not, we just prove his innocence so its win-win. When Dyno. gets confirmed, just PM him your roles/result of clue check.

edit: added colors, formatted better, no words/content were changes
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
LTT
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Shakuras1095 Posts
February 28 2009 16:06 GMT
#244
Dyno, it isn't. Tonight, Chuiu has a Vote Count. Voting won't end until another day after that. The other veterans can confirm themselves to you at the final vote in the same manner. You then have all night to organize and pass them all your information. You can then organize the medics after they have PMed you once you are confirmed. All this happens before the Mafia gets a single hit, so no one has to rush to do anything right now.
Dyno.
Profile Joined August 2008
United States286 Posts
February 28 2009 16:07 GMT
#245
Blue_arrow is mostly an arbitrary vote. However, as mentioned in a post shortly after the day 1 post, the "sharp person" is most likely a clue, and arrows are certainly sharp. It's not much to go off of, but it's more than anyone else.

I saw the idea that maybe the "some that looked like they had been incarcerated for past crimes" line may be a clue, but I think that was just flavor text. I don't think he would give us such a huge clue as that.

It's a moot point anyway since he won't be lynched.
BWdero
Profile Joined February 2008
Netherlands476 Posts
February 28 2009 16:08 GMT
#246
Chuiu usually does a preliminary vote count before doing a final one. That's when we can confirm if you are really a veteran.

I strongly suggest nobody acts before we can confirm Dyno's veteran status.

Besides voting of course, just don't vote on blue_arrow.
Stars fighting! Member #43 of Violet fan cafe. Fuck Kespa.
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5464 Posts
February 28 2009 16:10 GMT
#247
Alright I just reread the role listing and realized that the Don can use snakeskin and be immune to cluechecks. That changes a lot and I guess we can't assume a person cleared by a cluecheck is totally innocent.
Detectives: Go ahead and cluecheck inertinept anyways. It's the best thing to go on right now and we can just play it by ear from there.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
LTT
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Shakuras1095 Posts
February 28 2009 16:11 GMT
#248
Dyno, can you confirm in this thread that you sent a PM to Chuiu regarding your vote? You are probably a veteran, but if not I don't want you to have the excuse that "I didn't know I had to PM Chuiu".
Night[Mare
Profile Blog Joined December 2004
Mexico4793 Posts
February 28 2009 16:11 GMT
#249
sooooo we cast our vote in this thread? ill wait for confirmation from chuiu.

the vet plan sounds good, but i guess we're likely to proceed until the vote count list is revealed
Teamliquidian townie
BWdero
Profile Joined February 2008
Netherlands476 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-02-28 16:15:28
February 28 2009 16:13 GMT
#250
Actually it would be a better idea to clue check redtooth and blue_arrow for the sharpness clue. Since we are going to lynch someone before detectives ever get a chance to check for anything. And that person is going to be inertinept most likely so it doesn't make any sense to clue check him.

@nightmare yes we vote in this thread. I suggest we all vote for inertinept but if someone can make another solid case against someone else I'm open to suggestions.
Stars fighting! Member #43 of Violet fan cafe. Fuck Kespa.
Trezeguet
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States2656 Posts
February 28 2009 16:15 GMT
#251
On February 28 2009 15:12 redtooth wrote:
Yes it's finally started!

First off, we shouldn't do any clue analysis on the first day (especially clues that vague...). I don't know if RoL and Pyrr are probing but I suggest you lay off accusing. You'd be surprised how influential bandwagons are. I really don't want to die the first day just because you thought "sharp" equates to "redtooth" and "blue_arrow". That's just stupid.

As for "start posting", there's only a few people who have a significant enough background to be threatened by behavior analysis. Especially since the majority of the "power players" are either smurfing or not playing. We'll see how that turns out (Ace are you out there somewhere?).

Just guessing that a silent player is mafia is probably not a good idea. I think a lot of players in this game are new players (at least that is what I feel...) and we can expect some to be legitimately not participating due to forgetfulness or otherwise. Now if that silent person was previously an active poster... that changes things.

Also, using powers is different per role. The OP makes it sound like detective gets to use his ability nightly (confirmation please?) while the doctor cannot use his ability two nights in a row. This will lead to more strategical uses (staggering saves to keep a person alive?) but severely weakens the doctor and makes each save precious.

Though its only been an ~hour since the game started at the time of writing this, I actually expected much more participation even at this stage. Come on guys, let's keep this game alive, running, and fun! It's 1AM EST so when I wake up I hope to see a lot more posts!



Ok, so i'm not trying to align myself against redtooth, since he seems like he really is trying to help. On the other hand, we should be careful because if he is the "sharp" character, he could be leading us astray. So just like how we are going to wait on PMing Dyno, we should wait on following redtooth till we can know just a bit more. Though if he is proven innocent, he looks like he will be a great, strong leader in this game!
Naib
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Hungary4952 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-02-28 16:20:30
February 28 2009 16:17 GMT
#252
Well, we really should start voting. So far there are only two votes?

In that case, I'm as well voting for inertinept to be lynched.

As for the detectives checking him out:

I think it's a bad idea because of the following things:
-if you just randomly call them out, they'll end up checking him X-1 times (but certainly more than one), wasting their skills with overkilling it
-you're still suspicious, aren't you? (at least somewhat, sharp could be tied to redtooth, even if it's marginal)
-say, a detective used his powers to check out inertinept. He gets the result, and then what? He only gets the result when the day is over (as far as my understanding goes), and by that time the lynching will be done already. Besides, even if he got the results before - what could he do? Waving arms around "HEY GUYS INERTINEPT ISN'T MAFIA PLZ DON'T LYNCH HIM" - I bet that'd really convince the town that it isn't just a mafia ploy . We couldn't know if someone doing that was a real detective, or a mafia to defy our plan, because the said detective couldn't prove himself (not until Dyno is a proven veteran, revealing oneself to him now in order to make yourself innocent too could prove disastrous, should he be fake-claiming).

Bottom line: To me, it seems that inertinept will be gone either way. I would suggest PE's / detectives to use their abilities elsewhere, it wouldn't matter on inertinept now.

And definitely, medics should watch out for Dyno - we'll see what tomorrow brings.

edited: clarified sentence before the last
Complete the cycle!
Dyno.
Profile Joined August 2008
United States286 Posts
February 28 2009 16:18 GMT
#253
On March 01 2009 01:11 LTT wrote:
Dyno, can you confirm in this thread that you sent a PM to Chuiu regarding your vote? You are probably a veteran, but if not I don't want you to have the excuse that "I didn't know I had to PM Chuiu".

yes, it's already sent
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5464 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-02-28 16:21:41
February 28 2009 16:21 GMT
#254
I don't know what I was smoking a few posts ago but assuming a person innocent after being cleared of a cluecheck is a terrible (and incorrect) idea. My bad for suggesting that. People can still be mafia without having the clue pointing to them.

As for cluechecking me, I'm fine with it. We can also assume there is more than one detective and have them check each (me, inertinept, blue_arrow). Though they can't communicate with each other, we can try to organize them in a "public" manner.

+ Show Spoiler [EXAMPLE DO NOT ACTUALLY COMPLY] +

Detective with a name that starts with a letter earlier in the alphabet (i.e. A-M) check redtooth.
Detective with a name that starts with a letter later in the alphabet (i.e. N-Z) check blue_arrow.

Though that doesn't guarantee they won't overlap, it still gives a better chance than being silent.


edit: Wanted to add that this is "Just a thought" and might fail epically.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5464 Posts
February 28 2009 16:23 GMT
#255
On March 01 2009 01:15 Trezeguet23 wrote:
Though if he is proven innocent, he looks like he will be a great, strong leader in this game!

Thanks for the promotion but that just means mafia would be willing to kill me earlier...
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
BWdero
Profile Joined February 2008
Netherlands476 Posts
February 28 2009 16:25 GMT
#256
Just want to clarify something.

Detectives, do not waste you clue check on inertinept, since we are going to lynch him anyways your check will be wasted on him. Use your check elsewhere.
Stars fighting! Member #43 of Violet fan cafe. Fuck Kespa.
Naib
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Hungary4952 Posts
February 28 2009 16:26 GMT
#257
On March 01 2009 01:21 redtooth wrote:
I don't know what I was smoking a few posts ago but assuming a person innocent after being cleared of a cluecheck is a terrible (and incorrect) idea. My bad for suggesting that. People can still be mafia without having the clue pointing to them.

...



That's a pretty important point too. What do you have to say about checking inertinept out being a waste? (I want to provide discussion over here so detectives can go on their own)
Complete the cycle!
LordWeird
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States3411 Posts
February 28 2009 16:26 GMT
#258
Wow. This moves along quite quickly. I woke up at 10:00 or so to try to catch up on what's happening and every time I refresh there's like twenty more posts to read through.

As for the clue analysis, I am inclined to agree that the only 'strong' lead we have at this point are what has been mentioned already in the thread. I will hold off on voting until after I've had more time to soak in all of it.

Just wanted to throw that out there.
Chains none
Naib
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Hungary4952 Posts
February 28 2009 16:27 GMT
#259
On March 01 2009 01:25 BWdero wrote:
Just want to clarify something.

Detectives, do not waste you clue check on inertinept, since we are going to lynch him anyways your check will be wasted on him. Use your check elsewhere.


Yeah, exactly what I was saying above.

Ok time to cut the 2liner posts, I don't want to clutter this thread with meaningless junk. But we're thinking alike (if there's gonna be more than 3 voters here, LOL :D)
Complete the cycle!
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22213 Posts
February 28 2009 16:28 GMT
#260
I think the most solid lead we have today is inertinept, detectives follow up on other clues (such as the sharp reference).
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
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