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On April 15 2008 22:11 qrs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2008 21:15 MTF wrote:
1: Just because he hasn't doesn't mean he wouldn't. You say it's easy to twist the clues, but reading my bold/capitalized you can clearly see I haven't done anything but count numeric references. ALL of them that are specifically numeric and NONE that are not. And you've yet to provide any specific "tweaks".
*sigh* I hardly think it's necessary, but to make you happy I had a look to see what I could tweak and I noticed that you had inexplicably failed to bold " two knives met his hands". Oh, hey, now the numbers both add up to 44! They must point at str! (sarcasm, but that would still be marginally more convincing than your original version).
Shit, you're right!
I don't think the sarcasm is right, though. STR is a really vague name, and the numbers add up on both the days Cottonmouth was active.
Thank you for criticizing me and looking into it. :p
I did point out where I felt your analysis was stretched. I can't say "wrong" because there's no proof per se against your concoction (nor against any other 'clues'). I just don't find it very credible.
I've said I'm willing to drop this. You're the one who's being stubborn. I know you're proud of your detective work, but that doesn't mean that anyone who disagrees with you is Mafia.
I have to point out that you can say it's wrong because I missed that two; which led to a different, stronger suspect! XD
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Haha, my God I feel like a dumbass for missing that number. XD
But, despite it all, I'm gonna put my top and general suspects list in here from my blog in case day comes soon. Maybe somebody can find more critical errors that I missed and refocus our attentions.
+ Show Spoiler [My Stronger Suspicions] +LostYourSkills as Eddie:+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +
His quote refers to luck being skill that becomes habit. On the second day, he first gets a lucky kick off on Yogurt, then shortly thereafter, begins kicking him over and over again. He was also defended by BlindAlbino, who is pretty much confirmed Mafia.
Cottonmouth:
Cottonmouth is surrounded by numbers. By counting up the number references in the Day posts he shows up in, we arrive at this:
Day 2:
Specific numbers mentioned:
2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 4 = 29
Number placements:
once, fourth, = 5
Name (OneBlueAugust):
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 = 10
Total: 44
Day 4:
Specific numbers mentioned:
5, 6, 3 = 14
Name (New104):
1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4 = 30
Total: 44
#44 on the participant list is str. It makes sense for him to be linked by numbers as well, as he has a very ambiguous name.
Credit to Plexa for pointing out the days corresponding with the numbers. - Past analysis.
[i]Credit to qrs for pointing out the missing two in Day 2.
There are several references to the time being midnight in the Day posts. Snake Charmer has thus far only been known to use swords, and MidnightGladius has a sword in his name and profile. He is on the Mandalor list. Finally, BlindAlbino, now pretty much a confirmed Mafia, has protected him in the past.
Purely based off his speech and 0cz3c's profile quote. Both allude to two choices, one being a mystery, and in Copperhead's speech the object in his right pocket bulged to the point of it seeming impossible to hold whatever was inside. This coincides with the quote.
Firstly, Clazziquai is a Korean band. This fits in with the singing; to tie the hat/respectful manner in is Oddball. Oddball was Korean born in the Bond movies. He never talked, wore a suit, and threw a metal rimmed bowler hat that famously decapitated a statue in one of the movies.
Note: If he turns up Mafia later, look hard at Randombum.
Definite clues: He is very short and doesn't appear to be human/appears to be deformed as he is "a strange man". I believe this is a strong allusion to the person not being human, as Chuiu can't just come right out and say such. Crazie-Penguin: Penguins are short and would most definitely be strange looking if assumed a man. Also note this: King Brown Snake slapped him back to the ground Slapped is a rather specific phrase. A penguin cannot punch, but they could slap. And this: Caller got a leg free and kicked off the maddened King Brown Snake Maddened is, again, a specific phrase. Madness is a term for insanity, or craziness.
Take a look..
Yogurt had thrown a rock that struck Black Mamba in the face with much ease.
He kicked Eddie aside as he was helping Black Mamba recover from the stone that struck his face and stumbled but still managed to make an easy round house kick to knock Black Mamba back down.
He moved toward Eddie readying himself for another fight but was tripped by Black Mambas flailing legs.
Black Mamba felt his way up and began kicking Yogurt in the back to compliment Eddies assault.
They both took their turns dealing with Yogurt but when Eddie noticed Yogurt manage to pull some sort of switch out of his pocket he yelled at Black Mamba to back off.
Mr. Orange shrugged and shot him in the leg. Meta fell to the ground and started screaming for help. Black Mamba was a bit alarmed and tried to quiet the man, permanently, but ended up just bruising his face from stomping his foot around.
The point of all of these clues is one of two things: Black Mamba is physically helpless and CANNOT SEE. This is why he feels his way up to kick Yogurt, why Eddie has to yell at him to warm him about the switch, why Black Mamba is alarmed by the gunshot and proceeds to miss his attempts to stomp the man, why Eddie went back to help him in the first place, and why he is so easily hit; he can't dodge because he can't see.
BLACK MAMBA IS BLINDALBINO
how the fuck did I miss this before?
+ Show Spoiler [General Suspects/Not Strong Suspects:] +ieatkids5 as Mr. White:+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +
Let me clarify at the start that I am nowhere near 100% sure on this guy. The only reason I suspect him is because of his quote dealing with procrastination, being that laziness pays off now rather than working towards a later goal.
Easy arguments against this are that there are no obvious connections with smashing in heads and that he was one of the people BlindAlbino was pushing to be lynched. Because of these two things I do not yet feel strongly that he is Mr. White. He is, however, the closest match I have at the moment, with his quote covering both laziness and waiting 'til the last second to get things done.
Lysithea is a moon, and everyone knows that if you scream (or call for help) in space, nobody can hear you. Furthermore, there was a red moon reference in one of the day posts that may reference him. Lastly, Blind Albino, pretty much confirmed Mafia at this point, defended him.
Unsoundlogic: Reasoning is that unsound is clearly a lack of sound, which seems to be Mr. Orange's theme.
Mr. Brown constantly comes face to face with people, staring back at them, and doesn't seem to do anything else. Nemy has a mirror in his profile.
Jim Tudor is a hockey players name. Mr. Blonde tends to come right up on his opponents and often knocks them down, and is very physical. He is also very fast, which may be linked to a hockey players speed on ice, knocking their opponents over from seemingly out of nowhere.
The only reason I'm including him is because BlindAlbino defended him in the very same post he defended Queasy, who was Mafia, and MidnightGladius, who I'm pretty sure is Mafia.
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On April 15 2008 22:07 MTF wrote:
Iii don't get how it [...] is a coincidence. o_O
Chuiu could have taken arbitrary/meaningless numbers which were possibly never meant to be added, and add up to a similar result only by chance. Or the numbers could be connected to something else entirely. An unintentional red herring if you will.
Help me out here:
- Only & all of the numeric words in those days that Cottonmouth was present.
- A close sum total for both days, with a minimal difference between them.
- They both meet at a single total when the days number they are on is subtracted from them.
I had already understood before how you got your results, thank you.
What exactly is missing to convince you and why would the next time convince you if two separate occurrences don't?
As I said twice already, I'm waiting for a 46 tomorrow. Why? First, because the larger sample size would make it that much less likely that it's all a coincidence (especially because our discussion warns Chuiu not to make that unintentional mistake again, if it was one). Second, because you would then have made a correct prediction, proving your theory right.
Two occurences would be enough for me if they added up to the same number, but we need to include an additional variable (the day count), making it all more complicated and unsure. EDIT: This case became true just while I was typing. #44 (str) is thus a strong suspect for me. I think we've used up our actions for the night, so we can wait for the day post anyway to confirm the suspicion.
---
By the way, you would appear much more credible and serious if you wouldn't absolutely rule out that maybe, just maybe, you might not know the answer to everything.
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On April 15 2008 22:46 Scorch wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 15 2008 22:07 MTF wrote:
Iii don't get how it [...] is a coincidence. o_O Chuiu could have taken arbitrary/meaningless numbers which were possibly never meant to be added, and add up to a similar result only by chance. Or the numbers could be connected to something else entirely. An unintentional red herring if you will. Help me out here:
- Only & all of the numeric words in those days that Cottonmouth was present.
- A close sum total for both days, with a minimal difference between them.
- They both meet at a single total when the days number they are on is subtracted from them. I had already understood before how you got your results, thank you. What exactly is missing to convince you and why would the next time convince you if two separate occurrences don't? As I said twice already, I'm waiting for a 46 tomorrow. Why? First, because the larger sample size would make it that much less likely that it's all a coincidence (especially because our discussion warns Chuiu not to make that unintentional mistake again, if it was one). Second, because you would then have made a correct prediction, proving your theory right. Two occurences would be enough for me if they added up to the same number, but we need to include an additional variable (the day count), making it all more complicated and unsure. --- By the way, you would appear much more credible and serious if you wouldn't absolutely rule out that maybe, just maybe, you might not know the answer to everything.
See above. XD
I agree that 44 could add up to something other than a suspect on the list, but I strongly feel like it does just that, especially now that the suspect has such a vague name/small quote.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Id just like to say that i support MTF's findings for the following mafia;
Eddie as LostYourSkills
MidnightGladius as Snake Charmer
Crazie-Penguin as King Brown Snake
0cz3c as Copperhead
And JimTudor as mafia, although not necessarily Mr Blonde 
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On April 15 2008 23:01 Plexa wrote:Id just like to say that i support MTF's findings for the following mafia; Eddie as LostYourSkills MidnightGladius as Snake Charmer Crazie-Penguin as King Brown Snake 0cz3c as Copperhead And JimTudor as mafia, although not necessarily Mr Blonde
what about blindalbino?
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
that goes without saying i think 
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On April 15 2008 23:13 HeRoS)Pink wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2008 23:01 Plexa wrote:Id just like to say that i support MTF's findings for the following mafia; Eddie as LostYourSkills MidnightGladius as Snake Charmer Crazie-Penguin as King Brown Snake 0cz3c as Copperhead And JimTudor as mafia, although not necessarily Mr Blonde what about blindalbino?
BlindAlbino as Black Mamba
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'Since I lost some confidence in my surety that the number = the place on the list through my recent acting like an ass, I'm looking more indepth into the profiles to see if I can turn up 44 anywhere.
I'm going to be counting numbers occuring in names, photos, date joined, birthday, quote, and profile; all the post count related stuff changes, so cannot be used.
I will provide a link to each persons profile for easy access.
Fen:
1, 9, 2, 6, 1, 1, 1, 9, 8, 6 = 44
The one I view as the most likely, considering that Chuiu already used the marsh clue, the strongest word association for Fen, in the last game.
HotZhot:
8, 2, 8, 4 = 22.
HotZhot is a double-sided name, so it could be interpreted that the number goes twice.
22 x 2 = 44.
It's a stretch.
Wizard:
5, 2, 7, 9, 1, 9, 9, 2 = 44
nemY:
2, 3, 2, 6, 1, 5, 1, 9, 8, 7 = 44
DTDominion:
2, 7, 2, 5, 2, 1, 9, 8, 8 = 44
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As you can see, depressingly many added up to 44. Feel free to search through other people, guys, but my strongest suspect is still str, because at least his connection is not overlapping with other people.
Alright, this will be my last post for a little while. If I'm not dead when I come back, I'll start looking through my top suspects posting histories (and note any edits that occurred today in case this serves as a warning to!) to see if I can find suspicious behavior.
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While I like your passion for the mafia finding, I think your methods are bordering on the absurd. Go take a nap or something  
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On April 15 2008 14:45 Chuiu wrote:
I'm sorry guys I've been bogged down with tons of extra work lately. I'll get it up tomorrow I promise.
EDIT: Oh and don't worry about the inactive player situation. It's better than you think, I assure you.
Well Im here if it gets bad haha
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Yeah chuiu, dont worry about it, just tell me who dies, names of all the mafia, and I will try to help :D
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hopefully this day post reveals enough info for us to get where we need to be.
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Everyone owes me a post-death apology. Yeah, I'm asking for it now
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how are you so sure you're dead?
afaik no vigi's put a hit out on you.
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If I don't die in the morning, I'll be dead before night, the way things are going. Only thing that's going to save me is if MTF is vigi'ed and turns out red. Para mi, the chances of that happening are slim enough to warrant my death, sooner more likely than later.
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Well I would like to defend myself properly. First although MTF's logic and clues that link to most people are well thought out and reasonable. His link to my name is the weakest. If Chiu wanted to use my name which happens to be an unknown minor leaguer hockey player as a clue. It is easy. All he needs to do is say there was some ice around, the ground was slippery, it was freezing cold or Mr. blonde wacked the person in the head with a stick. Being physical is not a reasonable clue, 95% of the writeups in this game and the last game and probabably any mafia game, the mafia are overly physical and aggresive in their kills. That's why they are the mafia. Or if Chiu wanted to use my last name as a clue. All he needs to do is maybe talk about some kinda of crown lying somewhere, or have one of the mafia act in a noble or dignified manner, or recite a speech from a shakespearan play said by the royal family. Not some kind of weird religion switching random trivia that is at best a long, long stretch. Chiu's clues are a lot more direct, and I am innocent.
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Since this seems to be a theme, if I die tonight, nothing of value will be lost.
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Hmm, I missed your new conclusion MTF. I am glad you also recognize your clues to me aren't strong. Well, to your fast and coming out of nowhere accusations, I would just say isn't that also another common mafia characteristic. Anyways, I wouldn't say hockey players come out of nowhere. Hockey players aren't ninjas. Refs are watching, millions are watching and even the players usually are able to brace themselves for a check a hit because they are always aware.
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Wow, I feel like a dumbass for missing that Black Mamba "felt his way up". The toll of being a non-native speaker of the language, eh. I totally imagined that situation differently as I read it through, but now MTF and Plexa convinced me about BlindAlbino being Mafia (I pray to God that this time we're correct though...we can't afford to waste many more lynches, especially since Ace is roleblocked again). We should also nail that Sabouteur. I suspect, unlike d.arkive (the other special Mafia role) he's a silent lurker, without posting in the thread, and (intentionally) missing (not sure here!) votes sometimes. Should look at those people more closely - but ofc nailing sure Mafia is more important than running after the trail of the Saboteur.
edit: Grammar (added "also" into the Saboteur sentence  )
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EPT
