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On April 04 2008 14:19 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
im going with plexas rather than scorch's. His analysis is way more detailed and usually has a pretty good aim at hitting mafias
that's ok by me. my clue interpretations weren't meant to be in-depth. i had hoped an overlap would occur between my stuff and plexa's, but it didn't. so i will go with plexa's find of d.arkive. i'm not fully convinced, but it looks like a nice plausible link, a connection that chuiu would likely build into the clues. thanks for your work plexa!
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regarding araav's case, Showtime! told me in a PM that araav is a plain townie after the "hacking" incident:
araav = a stupid townie
i have no way of knowing if this is true, considering showtime's generally strange behavior. on the other hand, he turned up townie after his death, so he probably wouldn't have a reason to lie. i suspect araav was detective role-checked as was stated in the thread and turned out to be green. furthermore, there aren't any hard clues against araav. so i suggest we leave him alone.
note that this PM came long before Showtime's death, so nothing of this is against the rules.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 04 2008 18:11 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2008 14:19 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
im going with plexas rather than scorch's. His analysis is way more detailed and usually has a pretty good aim at hitting mafias that's ok by me. my clue interpretations weren't meant to be in-depth. i had hoped an overlap would occur between my stuff and plexa's, but it didn't. so i will go with plexa's find of d.arkive. i'm not fully convinced, but it looks like a nice plausible link, a connection that chuiu would likely build into the clues. thanks for your work plexa! I respect your analysis Scorch, he porbably doesn't like it because he is a suspect under your analysis  !
Here is my take on your clues
+ Show Spoiler [The Wolf] ++ Show Spoiler [The Wolf] +The Wolf and Taipan Snake had followed his near suicidal jump and were on him quick. Taipan Snake automatically knocked him to the ground and proceeded to kick him, being unarmed at the time. The Wolf approached "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand" as he pulled out a gun and made his mark on Chuiu's head.
The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. - One shot kill - targets the head Scorch's analysisCandidates for The Wolf: SoMuchBetter because The Wolf does the nail throwing "so much better" than the other mafia. Medium clue. - This is an interesting link, but it only corresponds to the most recent nights activity. The first night he seems almost remorseful when he kills Chuiu with no hint of him doing anything better. Perhaps you could make a case for 'leaving his mark' being a cocky thing to do, but i dno. suresh0t because The Wolf kills with one sure shot. Medium clue. - Fair enough, would correspond nicely with the first night too as it was exactly one shot to the head and he was dead. Nails could possibly correspond to his picture. He would be my other pick for the wolf HotZhot for the same reason, HotShot being the same as a SureShot. Medium clue. - We have overlap here. Less confident about this connection due to the similarity between his picture and the image of a wolf therefore not likely to be the wolf. LostYourSkills' signature indicates that he is very skilled, like The Wolf. Medium clue. - I can see the connection here, but it doesn't exactly line up with the first days clue. More evidence is needed before we can do anything with this.
+ Show Spoiler [Cottonmouth] ++ Show Spoiler [Cottonmouth] +Snake Charmer came in with a sword in hand and they saw Cottonmouth with a belt of knives and half a moment later Mr. White came in and closed the door. NeaX didn't care anymore, he started going to the front door when two knives met his hand as he reached for the handle. He braced himself against the wall as he pulled them out with his good hand. He chucked them back at Cottonmouth and went to open the door again but one by one four more knived embraced his good arm.
NeaX managed to get the door open and was crawling out while they were distracted by goldenkrnboi but Cottonmouth quickly picked up his target once more and finished him off throwing three knives into each of his legs and three in his back.
He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground, he walked slowly over to them to investigate. As he was bending over to take a closer look Cottonmouth approached from behind and stabbed a nail into his back. He fell to the ground and Cottonmouth used the opportunity to stab six more nails into him.
Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 - Throws sharp objects (knives/nails) - Delays killing for a long time - Notice the repetition of numbers; 2-4-3-3-5-6-1 What could this sequence be alluding to? Scorch's analysisRtS)Night[Mare could be Cottonmouth placing 5 nails, then stabbing him with 6 more. Nightmare was born on the 5th of June(6). Very weak clue, but maybe smart and obscure enough to be a strong clue? There are a couple more possible combinations of numbers in this paragraph, this was just the one i stumbled upon. - I saw Nightmare's as well and thought similar thoughts. The recurring theme of numbers is somewhat interesting. However, i beleive fanatacist pertains stronger to the clue of numbers. ulszz's signature indicates that he is a noob (at throwing nails) and needs reminding (by The Wolf), so he could be Cottonmouth. Medium clue. - Cottonmouth knows what he is doing i think. He purposely tortures his victims - although i might be wrong. Eti307's could be Cottonmouth. signature: "A person who never made a mistake (missing a lot of nail throws) never tried anyething new (trying to kill someone with nails)". Plus the numbers could point at his name: stabbing the victim with 1+6=7 nails, then throwing 3 more, 0 of which hit the target. Medium clue plus a weak one. - he was used last game and has little content left to use. There would be a time clue imo not this clue LostYourSkills could be Cottonmouth, having lost all his nail throwing skills and thus missing thrice. Medium clue. - As before, i beleive Cottonmouth to be highly skilled, i may be proven wrong, but as it stands hes skillful - but sadistic suresh0t could be Cottonmouth using nails because he wields a hammer in his profile pic. who else would kill with nails? Strong clue. - Disagree here, this only pertains to last nights kills not the first round of clues (knives). Therefore i doubt any connection here
+ Show Spoiler [Taipan Snake] ++ Show Spoiler [Taipan Snake] +parked out front but The Wolf and Taipan Snake had followed his near suicidal jump and were on him quick. Taipan Snake automatically knocked him to the ground and proceeded to kick him, being unarmed at the time.
They both stood up in a haste and Neax went to call the police. The phone line was dead. goldenkrnboi pulled out his cell phone and began dialing when it began glitching on him. He kept trying but dropped the phone and gave up when he noticed the rest of the electronics in the house going haywire. They both grouped up in the room and decided to head out to investigate, possibly even try a neighbors phone when they noticed a Taipan Snake operating what dawned on them must be some sort of electronic jamming device
Next door French_Toast was grabbing a midnight snack. He was headed to his computer room to check his email one last time before going to bed when he noticed all the batteries to some of his electronics have been removed and tossed on the floor. He bent down to pick them up and was just about done when Taipan Snake charged into him and knocked him to the ground. As if the last couple events weren't out of the blue enough for him French_Toast found himself being dragged to the nearest window. Eddie smashed the glass of the window and Taipan Snake grabbed French_Toast's head and they both used the remaining broken glass in the window pane to stab his neck with. It wasn't until they threw him through the window and he landed on his neighbors lawn darts did French_Toast die though.
Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner. "Oh I see you have friends" said Empyrean, now realized how screwed he was. "Yeah they're pretty cool guys, always ready to help" said Enigma and with that he and Eddie charged at Empyrean and proceeded to hold him to the ground. Taipan Snake walked up slowly and with a strange device fired out a direct current of electricity which proceeded to fry every inch of Empyrean. - Seems to be unarmed (not associated with weapons) -> Used broken glass recently -> Used a taser like device - Electronics connection -> Thematic disabling of electronics -> Thematic use of electricity (DC?) Scorch's analysisstr could be Taipan Snake grilling his prey with electrical power. Weak clue. - str was a suspect before last nights clue. The no power clue is really lame considering 3 nights haven't actually had the power cut Zeks could be Taipan Snake. His signature reminds me of an unresponsible policeman abusing his power to kill a guy with a tazer (with electrical power). Medium clue. - There is no real concrete evidence here. This great responsibility quote has me thinking he's more suited to enigma than Taipan. HotZhot could be Taipan Snake, "frying" Empyrean with the great heat signaled by HotZhot's name. Weak clue. - Only pertains to last night, not all 4 nights Energies' name relates to the tazer gun. Medium to strong clue, but maybe too obvious. - Energies has too many clues against him for it to be true. This may seem like a contradiction - but look at Ghar and shadowdrgn who had multiple strong clues linking to them whereas Queasy had one clue only and he was mafia. Energies has wayyy too many clues against him for him to be mafia. Theres the energy connection, the australian connection etc which is too strong. Lynching him will be fruitless and i am 100% sure of this fact
+ Show Spoiler [Enigma] ++ Show Spoiler [Enigma] +Enigma ran his hand through his hair and said "So we're going to gut this town clean and take it over, eh? No more of this bullshit protection, thats grand!"
The man on the far side introduced himself as Enigma and the closer man bowed with his hat in hand and referred to himself as California Mountain Snake. Well Dinmsab was getting really impatient at this point and demanded an explanation for what was going on. Enigma stood up and proclaimed "why we're here to rid the world of good, because we're the only ones who can".
Empyrean got up from his desk, thirsty, went to the break room for a cup of coffee. Along the way he noticed Enigma writing a note, perhaps with the intention to replace Empyreans findings with false ones to throw the town off. Empyrean noted the features of the man and quickly linked him to a murder just the previous day. "Stop right there, you're under arrest for suspicion of murder" he called out, knowing he didn't really have the means to detain the man but would certainly try his best. Enigma grinned back at him and motioned someone to come to him. Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner. "Oh I see you have friends" said Empyrean, now realized how screwed he was. "Yeah they're pretty cool guys, always ready to help" said Enigma and with that he and Eddie charged at Empyrean and proceeded to hold him to the ground. - Righteous - Eager to to what he sees is right --- Perhaps the clue changing relates to actions in the threadScorch's analysisHotZhot could be Enigma smiling back, according to his signature. Weak clue. - Pertains only to last night, doesn't consider the character of Enigma as a whole Caller could be Enigma "calling" his friends over to help him. Weak clue. - Again, only pertains to the most recent events not the grand scheme Unfogiven_ve could be smiling Enigma due to his smilie signature. Weak clue. - As above KorvspaD could be Enigma being fond of his friends (signature: "a friend with weed is a friend indeed..."). Medium clue. - As above BuGzIToOnI could be Enigma who loves his friends because of his signature. Weak clue. - As above Note, when looking for clues pertaining to Enigma you need to consider his whole character, which at the moment is rather enigmatic. I think MTF is a much stronger clue here, but then again ned more evidence to make a call on enigma
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On April 04 2008 18:19 Scorch wrote:regarding araav's case, Showtime! told me in a PM that araav is a plain townie after the "hacking" incident: i have no way of knowing if this is true, considering showtime's generally strange behavior. on the other hand, he turned up townie after his death, so he probably wouldn't have a reason to lie. i suspect araav was detective role-checked as was stated in the thread and turned out to be green. furthermore, there aren't any hard clues against araav. so i suggest we leave him alone. note that this PM came long before Showtime's death, so nothing of this is against the rules.
hmmm, should i thank you for "stupid townie" reference? :-/
Showtime was calling me names because I accused his townie behavior as stupid - as it really was.
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suresh0t seems a real suspect as of now
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 04 2008 19:06 araav wrote:
suresh0t seems a real suspect as of now any particular reason?
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reasons from your list - hammer, super shot
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 04 2008 19:23 araav wrote:
reasons from your list - hammer, super shot personally i beleive he is Mr Orange
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w/e he is, he fits under some clues 
edit: fits, not feets :D
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
so yea that brings the suspect list to:
d.arkive
suresh0t
Hotzhot
SoMuchBetter
MTF
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On April 04 2008 19:45 Plexa wrote:
so yea that brings the suspect list to:
d.arkive
suresh0t
Hotzhot
SoMuchBetter
MTF
i would even agree with this exact order you rock plexa.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 04 2008 19:49 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2008 19:45 Plexa wrote:
so yea that brings the suspect list to:
d.arkive
suresh0t
Hotzhot
SoMuchBetter
MTF i would even agree with this exact order you rock plexa. Awesome!
Ace, your move
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yeah, Plexa, very nice job!
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btw, do not wait Ace.
He may be somewhat humiliated after these failures, if he's a townie of course.
I wonder who of the detectives checked him
For the next game I propose adding the ability for the dead people to post one message after they die.
Or better - before the day lights - before anyone knows they are dead - they may send their will - any text - to Chuiu. If the person dies Chuiu publishes the dead person's will (in OP or special blog).
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 04 2008 20:30 araav wrote:btw, do not wait Ace. He may be somewhat humiliated after these failures, if he's a townie of course. I wonder who of the detectives checked him For the next game I propose adding the ability for the dead people to post one message after they die. Or better - before the day lights - before anyone knows they are dead - they may send their will - any text - to Chuiu. If the person dies Chuiu publishes the dead person's will (in OP or special blog). Why don't they just pm it to Ace?
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errm, because he still may be mafia?
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On April 04 2008 15:34 araav wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2008 08:24 qrs wrote:
Waiting on Ace, but so far, araav seems at least suspicious, given what we know: viz, he got into a chatroom and had a chance to see the names of people who had roles. He's never really addressed what happened there.
Araav, I think it's time for you to explain yourself. How did you find it, why did you go there, what did you see there? And why did two detectives die last night? qrs, you were more attentive to what happened at the beginning... I already answered the accusations "several pages ago" (c). Show nested quote +On March 28 2008 16:21 araav wrote:Guys, I kindly ask everybody - please do not use bad words when referring to me - even with "if". Remember - this is a game - a good game thanks to Chuiu, please do not ruin it for us. Also, remmeber the nature of the game for the future. You do not necessarily believe to ideas thrown here by random people, unless you are 100% sure they are townies. Sometimes dumb towneis can ruin the game by really stupid moves. Now, for stupid moves. Throwing in this idea was really stupid of Showtime (or Ace, if he stands after this). if Showtime's a townie: come on - mafia already knows this is false, so whom you are fucking with - with townies? want to lure some dumb mafia into this and find him out? do you really think mafia members would be so dumb? if Showtime's a mafia: this is somewhat logical for a mafia member to distract the town's usual day-flow of smart guys' analyzing the clues, making good points, etc. But still dumb enough. Do you think Ace is stupid to collect the "blues" together? Even if there was 1% chance of haveing a fake blue there that must not happned. <-> (like Tracil did ) overall...... something is not right out here... from one hand it seems that Showtime is green, as the killed mafia member was panicing and Ace brought some info in... form the other hand - what the hell is he doing? Now, let's analyze the situation and try to understand what really happened with hindsight. Show nested quote +if Showtime's a townie:
come on - mafia already knows this is false, so whom you are fucking with - with townies? want to lure some dumb mafia into this and find him out? do you really think mafia members would be so dumb? it turned out Showtime is a green. so why on earth was he talking about? Why Ace supported him saying "at that moment, when araav entered there were at most 5-6 blues"? Why on earth was Showtime in the "channel of clues"? What really happened? I think these are the questions that Ace can answer only.
In short, you are saying that this IRC channel never was?
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I think that Eti307 is mafia again this round based on several clues.
Remember a while back there was a mention of how someone threw three knives into three different body parts? 3, 3, 3... Person #3 is Eti307.
Then there was a clue about a "three house raid." Hmm...
Now there's another clue about 3 nails. 3, 3, 3... Eti307.
Not to mention his behavior this round is remarkably similar to his behavior last round, where he was mafia as well, and on top of that he's been very quiet.
Hmmdehmmm...^_^
As I've already just put my head on the chopping block, I might as well come out with other accusations as well.
A while ago, on Day 1, there was a mention of a red moon. Now, what does a red moon do? It signifies a Lunar Eclipse, and the last one was on February 22nd... the same day as EvilMonkey. 's Birthday.
Just saying ^_^
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Ace is not mafia. Did you believe Empryeam would not have followed through the plan to check if Ace was mafia. Of course he would, especially so cause he was also a mayoral candidate and he would be rightfully suspicious. And he wouldn't be scared to say it in public. Not one detective said anything, and he got full cooperation from them. The only logical conclusions is they all checked him up first thing and he is clean.
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EPT
