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On March 11 2024 12:57 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 12:57 CopCake wrote:On March 11 2024 12:54 DarthPunk wrote:On March 11 2024 12:54 CopCake wrote:On March 11 2024 12:53 DarthPunk wrote:
You realize If they shoot me I still get a shot off right? But they can block you and shot you. What if vivax JK me? then slam gets a check. But you are a vet, vivax doesnt need to jail you. winnet winner
You are both terrible. I am done with this argument.
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On March 11 2024 12:58 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 12:58 DarthPunk wrote:On March 11 2024 12:57 CopCake wrote:On March 11 2024 12:54 DarthPunk wrote:On March 11 2024 12:54 CopCake wrote:On March 11 2024 12:53 DarthPunk wrote:
You realize If they shoot me I still get a shot off right? But they can block you and shot you. What if vivax JK me? then slam gets a check. But you are a vet, vivax doesnt need to jail you. He flips a coin so that RB+ shot doesn't kill me. And he literally said he was flipping a coin. I lied I was always going to jail a confirmed cop here
OK BUT THE WHOLE POINT IS TO WIFOM THE MAFIA VIVAX.
NOW WE ARE WIFOMING OURSELVES.
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At most I could have jailed JS otherwise
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On March 11 2024 12:57 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 12:56 Rels wrote:On March 11 2024 12:51 CopCake wrote:
The problem is
Why not kill DP when we have
- vivax jailing Slam so his cop check doesnt work
- kill DP who is about to kill mafia TTS/Cake/DMB
If two of those are real mafia, I think blocking DP takes priority and not blocking vivax to kill slam, I mean the cop check would had been blocked.
I saw this in your filter too, in my mind it's not even a question. I mean, killing DP or not might be a question, but roleblock wise, scum HAD to RB Vivax and kill Slam Scum cannot know who Vivax will target, so that's the only plan where you get your 2 KPs + be sure there isn't another check. Any other plan, you risk having one of your KP blocked by Vivax The second KP (the marv one) could have been used to kill DP yeah, but killing marv is super logical too Mafia knows who vivax is going to target if DP claimed vet.
They can make an educated guess that is the most logical, but they cannot be 100% sure
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Fuck already midnight. I thought I was only going to play for 30 minutes. I have 2 interviews tomorrow morning ... wish me luck!
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On March 09 2024 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
DP: he’s been actively pushing to lynch me this entire cycle which I don’t think mafia would do here, much safer to just go with the flow and not actively keep pushing. He’s also started actually giving reads this latter half of the day and scumhunting which again, doesn’t make sense for mafia to do.
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Going to take a look at VE and go to bed
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On March 11 2024 13:02 Rels wrote:
Fuck already midnight. I thought I was only going to play for 30 minutes. I have 2 interviews tomorrow morning ... wish me luck!
GL! As someone who has been on the "getting a better job" grind for way too long, I know this struggle. You got this!
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Well, that was quick lol. 2 posts since I last posted
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Well whatever.
This day is cast in stone but I see two green flips here and id not you get to call me bad.
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VE is basically claiming scum? They should still be the lynch today over CC IMO
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Thanks 
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Calling me mafia is just fucking bad vivax.
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Funny how Oats said mafia wouldn‘t actively push him though.
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On March 11 2024 13:06 Vivax wrote:
Funny how Oats said mafia wouldn‘t actively push him though.
Yes that is a good pickup.
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On March 11 2024 13:06 DarthPunk wrote:
Calling me mafia is just fucking bad vivax.
Maybe but it bothers you a lot and you are automatically dismissing MZ and Jealous.
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On March 11 2024 13:07 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 13:06 DarthPunk wrote:
Calling me mafia is just fucking bad vivax. Maybe but it bothers you a lot and you are automatically dismissing MZ and Jealous.
Vivax, did it bother me in my last mafia game?
Or did I just try and pocket you?
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On March 11 2024 13:00 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 12:57 CopCake wrote:On March 11 2024 12:56 Rels wrote:On March 11 2024 12:51 CopCake wrote:
The problem is
Why not kill DP when we have
- vivax jailing Slam so his cop check doesnt work
- kill DP who is about to kill mafia TTS/Cake/DMB
If two of those are real mafia, I think blocking DP takes priority and not blocking vivax to kill slam, I mean the cop check would had been blocked.
I saw this in your filter too, in my mind it's not even a question. I mean, killing DP or not might be a question, but roleblock wise, scum HAD to RB Vivax and kill Slam Scum cannot know who Vivax will target, so that's the only plan where you get your 2 KPs + be sure there isn't another check. Any other plan, you risk having one of your KP blocked by Vivax The second KP (the marv one) could have been used to kill DP yeah, but killing marv is super logical too Mafia knows who vivax is going to target if DP claimed vet. They can make an educated guess that is the most logical, but they cannot be 100% sure
Mafia knows some stuff tho
These is what happened according to what has been posted here
- vivax jailed darth punk
- jsl gave a gun to darth
- slam checked oats
- darth is vet
We know mafia didnt block slam so they pretty much blocked vivax.
If we go by that, darth needs to have his vest 100% unless mafia vig vigged darth but wouldnt the jail prevent that? So darth has his vest intact.
From that logic I think is obvious vivax would have protected slam the next night.
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On March 11 2024 12:59 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 12:57 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 11 2024 12:52 Rels wrote:
Maybe it is as simple as VE / DMB / CC
It doesn't feel right as it's the easiest lynches. Doesn't feel right at all. But maybe it is What happened to your Palmar read dude? Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:22 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 13:21 iamperfection wrote:On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling we should ask the palmar expert when he wakes up. Yeah. @marv what do you think? Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:23 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
The 2 dumbtells are in that post ("4 or 5 mafia", "JSL could be scum even though he claimed") I might be biaised by this but I really like this Palmar post. Feels like a really genuine world view
hmmm
I'm gonna have to think about this. A decent chunk of my scumread on you right now comes from you seemingly abandoning your Palmar read. That said, DMB is not scum, I'm almost certain of this. If you take her out, who else do you think could be scum?
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EPT
