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A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 19

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 19:07 GMT
#4967
On March 09 2024 03:46 Koshi wrote:
Oats got to say. You did everything right.
If people complain about effort in future games I will post your performance. Solid through entire game and this town has no balls. Yesterday I was proud to be in this town. Today I am ashamed.

Ty for the nice words :>
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 19:25 GMT
#4970
Skimmed through jealous’ filter and I think I’m just more annoyed at the playstyle than anything that actually makes him scummy so he’s in the town pile
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 19:25 GMT
#4971
On March 09 2024 04:11 Koshi wrote:
(They care but are mafia)

Mafia living good tonight
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 20:07 GMT
#4974
On March 09 2024 04:57 iamperfection wrote:
He didn't do the self meta though.

If you really wanna see it I’ll do it lol
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 20:48 GMT
#4979
@iamp
Latest mafia game
https://tl.net/forum/mafia/532537-mafiacalfeast-i?user=Oatsmaster
Latest town game
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?sid=&f=2&t=92237&user_select[]=37336


Id say that my mafia meta is that I like to attack everyone and constantly be poking the same person/tunneling especially if it’s not necessarily the games consensus. I also just drop off in activity as the game goes on.

My town meta I like to try and get some good townreads going to play off of and generally am able to view the game more holistically than as mafia.
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 20:48 GMT
#4980
On March 09 2024 05:28 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also fuck didn't realise you were actually projecting an oats check. This makes framer more likely yet not confirmed.

That’s what I’m trying to say this whole day regarding framer likelihood
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 21:27 GMT
#4986
On March 09 2024 06:01 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 04:25 Oatsmaster wrote:
Skimmed through jealous’ filter and I think I’m just more annoyed at the playstyle than anything that actually makes him scummy so he’s in the town pile

How would you characterize my play style? What annoys you?

The part where you go through and summerize people’s votes/reads as a whole and then kinda go off that instead of having specific posts.

Feels too structured to me but I understand that people have different play styles
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 21:44 GMT
#4992
On March 09 2024 06:36 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2024 15:25 Oatsmaster wrote:
Alright Palmar:

He has 11 pages, that’s really surprising to me tbh, again like I said earlier with rels, if I can’t remember what you posted, that’s bad.


On March 05 2024 22:48 Palmar wrote:
I need Sandroba to come convince me his mason buddies aren't just mafia.

I really, really, really don't think marv just tries to kill me without even talking about it.


I really don’t like this post, it has the inbuilt assumption that Sandro is town and the only other post that Palmar made preceding this about Sandro he expressed suspicion at the 3 in the Mason group. It not a natural anything. Palmar is just posting for the sake of posting.

He then comes back to this Sandro read and justifies it after the fact as if he arrived at it later on which is obviously not the case.

On March 06 2024 06:46 Palmar wrote:
Marv is very, very, very likely to be mafia.

I already didn't love his stance on the Vivax thing and his tone in the thread. Then this line of thinking is really what's sealing the deal.

On March 06 2024 00:13 marvellosity wrote:
On March 06 2024 00:12 Palmar wrote:
On March 06 2024 00:09 iamperfection wrote:
On March 06 2024 00:07 Palmar wrote:
On March 06 2024 00:00 marvellosity wrote:
Do you know why I normally tr read you Palmar?

No idea.

Or well, I do have a guess that it's largely a tone read coupled with some parameters on how I think about the game.

Honestly, doesn't really matter to me. But please do explain because I'm going to enjoy watching your backtrack if I flip before you this game.

Unless....

You just wanna be my friend and give me a townread.

In your mind this is town marv coming after you?

I don't know.

I want marv to be happier, more excited, and maybe a little friendlier.

But I don't really think I can call him mafia for being lazy and boring. He does after all have his little mason society to retreat to.

Mostly, I kinda just don't care at the moment. Marv has integrity and respect for the game. He is, usually, to be counted on to continue playing past day 1, and he is good enough that he can be forced to participate usefully or die. Even if I'm kinda suspicious, or at least uncomfortable, about his alignment at the moment, it's not a productive venue for today.

Also, his reaction to me actually playing the game is going to be very interesting.

Mafia. Should be calling me bad. Isn’t. Mafia.


This isn't a valid complaint.

I'm not gonna call marv bad when he votes for me. In fact, I kinda understand why he voted for me early on. I had done very little as I was busy yesterday. Today I produced a long filter with all kinds of reads and explanations of them and that did absolutely nothing to budge his opinion on me.

I don't really know what sandroba thinks of me but he did come back and kinda changed his mind, at least moved off the scumread a little bit. But marv is dug in. He is not this certain about my alignment if he's town. There should be some doubt in him.

I actually think Oats looks a lot better for this observation

On March 06 2024 01:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
I’m trying to wrap my head around this Palmar push by marv and what it means for marvs alignment.
I think Palmar has been way more townie this last like 5 pages and that only seems to solidify marvs read


Like this is what I expect people to do who don't just want a kill.

I don't think marv is bad, I just think he's scum.

And if ANYONE buys this logic with me dead, that person is an infinite moron.

On March 06 2024 00:10 marvellosity wrote:
On March 06 2024 00:07 Palmar wrote:
On March 06 2024 00:00 marvellosity wrote:
Do you know why I normally tr read you Palmar?

No idea.

Or well, I do have a guess that it's largely a tone read coupled with some parameters on how I think about the game.

Honestly, doesn't really matter to me. But please do explain because I'm going to enjoy watching your backtrack if I flip before you this game.

Unless....

You just wanna be my friend and give me a townread.

You’re fairly close. And those things remain consistent despite your time allowances.

And they’re absent here.

So you’re mafia.

And - i know you know I don’t push for you like this as mafia. As if you are town I am putting myself in an incredibly difficult spot when the person I know best flips town. It’s a terrible play. The only logical explanation is I am town and I think you are mafia.

You know this.

If you were town you’d be much more actively calling me stupid and all those normal things. But you’re not.


This is not true.

This read is a lotta words for calling marv scum cause bad. I mean just read it, there’s no logical consistency for why Palmar has such a strong read on Marv based on the evidence he provides

On March 06 2024 19:53 Palmar wrote:
On March 06 2024 19:47 CopCake wrote:
On March 06 2024 19:44 JacobStrangelove wrote:
On March 06 2024 19:42 CopCake wrote:
Can someone link me the infamous "DP was mafia" game?



Tbh I think dps filter is massive. So big I don't think he's ever had a filter this size before as mafia. If he's mafia he has taken it to heights since unknown.


His recent game in which he fooled grack, rayn and idk who else, oats?

Ok if you're town and you admit you suck as town, maybe listen to some experience.

DP is very good as mafia and can be mafia here.

But it's a huge game and we need to prioritize. We're not lynching people who are making sense, making good calls and leading town when we have plenty of lower hanging fruit to go after. You HAVE to be willing to be wrong to be good at town. You can always change your mind later. I was wrong so much last game and ended up back to back supporting lynch on mafia I had called town to win the game last game. And doing so I sheeped/supported people I had (wrongly) called mafia all game.

Re-evaluating based on game state is NOT A BAD THING. Killing a town leader with a huge filter and good takes is just tinfoil hat bad play. No need to be a hero when there's administrative tasks to be finished first. If DP is mafia we'll cross that bridge when we get there. You're not using your time efficiently by chasing him at the moment. We'll cross that bridge when we get there.

People are really afraid of "getting fooled" by good mafia, but the reality it's so much worse to get fooled by bad mafia. If let's say... TTS and DP are both mafia, I'd much rather be fooled by DP than TTS.

This is just a classic mafia advice post that pushes nothing but appears to be helpful by telling cake to move along

On March 07 2024 00:56 Palmar wrote:
On March 07 2024 00:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I entirely dislike that you even have a thought in your head at any point of the game that me and marv are mafia together (which you had as per your posts). And i think it makes you mafia.


Again, I understand you disliking it, but now that I've reminded you that these kind of associative reads don't really matter to me as town, doesn't that change your stance?

This is after Palmar expresses a scumread on rayn, during their conversation. Does this sound like someone who thinks that the person he’s talking to is town? I don’t think so and I think it’s clear he tried to attempt to distance from the flip.

There’s just nothing from day 2 besides using bad math to justify lynching me, no engagement just checking boxes.

This was longer than I thought it was but yeah this is where my current read on Palmar is.

@copcake from what I can tell from the voting around Palmar going from lead lynch to no votes was marv dropping his read along with trfel getting wagoned on but it’s a mixed bag with slam and vivax on that wagon too so I’m not really sure if there was mafia involvement


OMGUS

I mean the rayn case made me laugh thanks for that
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 21:46 GMT
#4993
On March 09 2024 06:41 Palmar wrote:
But to answer, the reason I said sandroba is that at the time he was the one of them not wanting to kill me.

Also marv is bad if he thinks I'm mafia and I'm town. It's a pretty universal tell. All that marv-posting was just made in case I died. It can be safely ignored.

Also, bad Oats for calling me scum for being nice. I'm really working hard on being nice to people in mafia games, and I actually have some pretty strong opinions on how to approach the game. I love spreading the word on these.

And the last point is quite simple, I am actually very surprised that rayn doesn't change his read after being reminded. This is just me trying to beat into his thick skull that he should know how I approach scumhunting. But my strength falters... the skull is too thick.

I’ll make it up to you if you vote for VE
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:16 GMT
#5011

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:17 GMT
#5012
I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:25 GMT
#5017
Hey look Palmar Sandro thought i was town too.
Just like for your records
On March 06 2024 11:00 sandroba wrote:
oats is very townie imo

No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:27 GMT
#5020
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol

Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron.

Fair
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:32 GMT
#5027
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 07:16 Oatsmaster wrote:

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.

I don’t mind getting lynched but not because of math this bad…

Slam checking me probability is 1 because it happened.

So the only probability in play is whether there is a framer and whether the framer landed on me.
Consertively let’s say the probability of a framer existing in this game is 0.9 and the probability of the framer landing on me randomly is 0.07 so the total probability is 0.064 which is 6.5% MINIMUM.
Now if you bump the probability of a framer up to 1 and consertively say slam had 4 possible cop checks it becomes 25% that I got framed.

Miller is not really consequential I agree at this point it’s like a 8% chance it’s on me if it even exists


I mean slam could also just be lying and he's mafia happily going 1 for 1, we already have a ton of blue roles running around.

[b]But the math isn't bad. You have to consider the possibility of "Oats gets framed, Slam checks marv" or something. From my vantage point that is an entirely plausible scenario, because I cannot control Slam.[b]

This is btw why framer is a terrible role. It's so useless like 99% of the time and randomly swings 1% of games way out of whack. It really shouldn't exist.

I mean sure for a future hypothetical scenario, but the current real scenario is he did check me so the probabilities will account for that.

I don’t think the framer role is that swingy, the whole point is to not make the game follow the cop which isn’t fun for anyone. The cop checks just becomes another data point in the analysis but it allows more skill based play.
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 08 2024 22:40 GMT
#5038
On March 09 2024 07:39 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait you are saying that the mafia team is playing THAT fast?

6:55 my time is 5 minutes until deadline

5’minutes is plenty of time to submit an action.
Normally people post end of night stuff like the minute before
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 09 2024 00:42 GMT
#5159
On March 09 2024 09:37 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 09:33 DarthPunk wrote:
On March 09 2024 09:28 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
On March 09 2024 09:22 DarthPunk wrote:
On March 08 2024 11:20 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
The egos people have in this game to sit here and try to talk around probability is absurd. Someone doing it is scum.


If we wanna talk more math that I'm bad at, it's not 1/19 chance of Slam's check vs 1/19 check of a framer (which tbh is what I'm assuming happened), it's 1/slam's reads vs 1/slams read's since he claimed so scum had an idea of where he'd be looking.

Koshi's post about this earlier today was really good on this, I think I've quoted it twice now.


Haven’t you called people not voting for oats mafia for the whole phase?



Also this is exactly what I was looking for by voting palmer I'm not dumb wanted to see who else would jump ship when oats flips scum to find others. If not scum then jumping ship might be town behaviour

Back on oats ftr

Any conclusions from this?
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 09 2024 00:42 GMT
#5161
On March 09 2024 09:40 DarthPunk wrote:
what are we supposed to do tomorrow if oats lives?

Do we just repeat today?

Why in the world would we repeat today?
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 09 2024 00:45 GMT
#5164
On March 09 2024 09:43 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 09:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 09 2024 09:40 DarthPunk wrote:
what are we supposed to do tomorrow if oats lives?

Do we just repeat today?

Why in the world would we repeat today?


Cause you are still an unresolved red check.

No, if we don’t lynch me today, the resolution is that I’m town
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 09 2024 00:49 GMT
#5173
On March 09 2024 09:47 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2024 09:45 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 09 2024 09:43 DarthPunk wrote:
On March 09 2024 09:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 09 2024 09:40 DarthPunk wrote:
what are we supposed to do tomorrow if oats lives?

Do we just repeat today?

Why in the world would we repeat today?


Cause you are still an unresolved red check.

No, if we don’t lynch me today, the resolution is that I’m town


If you are town you a real easy mislynch at lylo?

Do you really not see the issues here? like I get you wanna live but still.

I’m really not? Just play the game man, the way you wanted to without blues
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
March 09 2024 00:52 GMT
#5176
I really don’t think that we are getting replacements for this game lol
No gg, No skill.
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