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Winter Warfare Mafia - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 17:55 GMT
#857
Nah, I don't buy that you think that. Either tmi or agenda sounds more reasonable
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 17:57 GMT
#858
Or maybe I just suck while thinking I'm onto something and expecting you feel the same but actually you are just right and good while I'm bad? A harder pill to swallow but I guess could be true
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 18:13 GMT
#862
On December 12 2023 03:06 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2023 02:55 sandroba wrote:
Nah, I don't buy that you think that. Either tmi or agenda sounds more reasonable

Are you nuts? You haven’t explained in any way how the post you quoted was different from the rest of Trfel’s filter…?!

I don't think I need to explain, I think the post and filter speak from themselves
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 18:25 GMT
#864
typo kinda ruined it though
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 22:14 GMT
#903
@marv waffling on slam is the whole reason you think I'm suspicious? At that point in the thread, we only had very few posts and I did the best with what I had to get some alignment discussion going, while trying to be transparent with my thought process. Even after this whole day I would probably waffle on Slam if I'm being honest as I find him and chezinu pretty much wild cards.
Just seems like a low-effort crutch what you are doing to justify your position on me.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 22:23 GMT
#908
I feel like rayn, you and koshi are town.
Lean town on slam, palmar (move to town if vivax is scum)
Neutral on hf, chezinu, dmb
I lean scum on vivax, marv, conflicted on trfel.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 22:50 GMT
#921
On December 12 2023 07:40 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2023 07:22 marvellosity wrote:
On December 12 2023 07:14 sandroba wrote:
@marv waffling on slam is the whole reason you think I'm suspicious? At that point in the thread, we only had very few posts and I did the best with what I had to get some alignment discussion going, while trying to be transparent with my thought process. Even after this whole day I would probably waffle on Slam if I'm being honest as I find him and chezinu pretty much wild cards.
Just seems like a low-effort crutch what you are doing to justify your position on me.

You know I said stuff that wasn’t just that first post right?

Saying it’s the whole reason is clearly disingenuous

Just want to repeat this. sandro trying to reduce what I’ve said so he can attack that aspect of it in isolation.

Anyway, let’s hope the flip goes okay.


Other than that, you said all his posts are okay but I feel like he is trying to solve the game. I dismissed this point because it's literaly dumb, as you say this while I'm trying to force you to talk about me and so I can see if I can find a townie mindset behind it. Basically what I could buy into is that you felt the first post was suspicious and then based of that preconceived notion it tainted the rest of the interpretation. But really that doesn't make sense if you didn't like my first post because I was waffling on Slam (of all people)
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 11 2023 22:51 GMT
#922
Sorry, misspoke above. Should read "not trying to solve the game"
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 12 2023 15:05 GMT
#1172
Okay, so I'm just going to operate under the assumption I'll probably be lynched tomorrow.
I'm going on a clean slate and re-read the thread trying to forget about my assumptions and try to get a more impartial view of things.

The first post that I really liked and gave me a strong town read on DP was this one, since it matched my assessment of what was going on perfectly:
On December 10 2023 17:14 DarthPunk wrote:
Hey guys, just got back from watching my nieces (they are obsessed with Bluey if anyone knows that show) but have been following along the thread while I was away.

Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 12:03 Alakaslam wrote:
Why aren't y'all instant and hanging on every second like my phoneposting ass?


I liked Slams entry, seemed keen to be playing, I think slam probably could do that as mafia, but I think his alignment will work itself out along the lines of his engagement levels so wouldn't want to lynch him today.

Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 12:03 Trfel wrote:
Hi everyone, hope you have been well

Excited for the 12 player game. Increases my chance of finding mafia to 27.2%, higher than my normal 25% average!



Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 12:10 Trfel wrote:
Also I should add, I could be wrong, but this seems like a heavy-EU player base in a game where the deadline is late at night for EU. So it's probably going to be important to be more organized and not rely on deadline shenanigans since people (hopefully) won't be around Unless there is some other solution to the Grackaroni deadline that people have discovered in my 3-year-plus absence.



Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 12:40 Trfel wrote:
How are you doing, Alakaslam? Anyone else around?

I do find it interesting that there is a mason mechanic this game. Not sure if there is any way to realistically use that to our advantage, but I guess it probably doesn't hurt?


As a rule, I tend to associate entry to threads like this with mafia play (setup speculation particularly). Admittedly,
it could be a case of a returning player trying to feel his way back into the thread, but the BS detector was going off big time.


Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 12:49 sandroba wrote:
Hi everyone, excited to be playing a game after being away from Mafia for so long! I believe I have some familiarity with most if not all players on the list, although I might be very outdated in accessing their meta.

So far we have Alakaslam who I feel is posting within what I expected, not leaning one way or the other based on his initial posts. I like the poking about smiles being sus, but at the same time, it's phrased as a question so there is a bit of avoidance in there as well. Again, not very telling.

For Trfel, some might say I'm nit-picking, but I don't like the self-demeaning tone about his performance right out of the gate. Also, some generic advice and deadlines which sounds like trying to say something just to fit in. This could be understandable because we are mostly trying to generate some content at this point and get the discussion going, but this advice at this point so far away from the deadline doesn't do us much good at face value or as a conversation starter. Leaning suspicious from what I've seen so far.


The last paragraph of this post reflected my viewpoint at that point in the thread, I don't really like the slam stuff. Meh.


Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 13:25 Trfel wrote:
On December 10 2023 12:49 sandroba wrote:
Hi everyone, excited to be playing a game after being away from Mafia for so long! I believe I have some familiarity with most if not all players on the list, although I might be very outdated in accessing their meta.

So far we have Alakaslam who I feel is posting within what I expected, not leaning one way or the other based on his initial posts. I like the poking about smiles being sus, but at the same time, it's phrased as a question so there is a bit of avoidance in there as well. Again, not very telling.

For Trfel, some might say I'm nit-picking, but I don't like the self-demeaning tone about his performance right out of the gate. Also, some generic advice and deadlines which sounds like trying to say something just to fit in. This could be understandable because we are mostly trying to generate some content at this point and get the discussion going, but this advice at this point so far away from the deadline doesn't do us much good at face value or as a conversation starter. Leaning suspicious from what I've seen so far.
I guess instead of waiting I'll let the cat out of the bag, I'm impatient.

This post seems very wishy-washy, non-committal, and pointless. The first paragraph doesn't really say anything of substance (not that it's wrong per se, just doesn't really contribute anything meaningful to the game). The second paragraph is the same way. To me, he seems to end with exactly no read (and next to no thoughts) on Alakaslam. There's even "I like the poking about smiles, but it's phrased as a question so there is avoidance as well" which seems like aggressive-but-with-a-heavy-grain-of-salt that is easy to say without actually committing to it. "Posting within what I expected" and "not leaning one way or the other based on initial posts" doesn't end up meaning much at all.

The other thing I want to note is all of the caveats and grain of salts and backtracking in sandroba's post. Not exactly sure how to phrase what I mean, but see here, in red:

On December 10 2023 12:49 sandroba wrote:
So far we have Alakaslam who I feel is posting within what I expected, not leaning one way or the other based on his initial posts. I like the poking about smiles being sus, but at the same time, it's phrased as a question so there is a bit of avoidance in there as well. Again, not very telling.

For Trfel, some might say I'm nit-picking, but I don't like the self-demeaning tone about his performance right out of the gate. Also, some generic advice and deadlines which sounds like trying to say something just to fit in. This could be understandable because we are mostly trying to generate some content at this point and get the discussion going, but this advice at this point so far away from the deadline doesn't do us much good at face value or as a conversation starter. Leaning suspicious from what I've seen so far.
He's shying away from saying something, like making a read and then backing off from it. Or giving a reason to doubt what he just said, or placing a limiter on it. For such a small post, it's riddled with it. To me, this comes across as trying to be non-committal and playing the "safe game" while making it look like you are saying things and trying to figure things out.


The level 1 analysis of this is that a player is being aggressive early, not afraid to post and that would be good for Trfel. My initial feelings reading the post was that it felt forced, with a lot of generic statements to try and make Sandroba's post seeem worse than it was.

I disagree that at the point of the game in which we are right now, that everything said needs to progress the game in a meaningful way. Sure, I would like that to be the case, but I also don't think that someone being non-committal is alignment indicative, in fact, someone being strongly committed early tends to make me lean mafia more than town, Town are trying to figure shit out at the start and are more curious than committed.


This really is what Trfel was doing, going on the counter-offensive trying to conjure up arguments to make my post look at lot worse.
If I knew what type of player Trfel is I would immediately consider this an ironclad case, even with so few posts in the thread at that point. But if Trfel is a very emotional player I could my suspicion of him tainting his reason and making him try to look for reasons for me being mafia and accusing him. DP followed this through with this, argued against Slam who was brushing it off as an overreaction by me and Trfel, shortly put his vote on Trfel and was rallying the thread to look at Trfel.

Due to this spot on analysis this consolidates DP as town to me, regardless of Trfel's alignment.

Marv's commentary at this point is probably what caused my initial suspicion of him:
On December 10 2023 19:19 marvellosity wrote:
Don’t understand anyone who thinks Trfel is suspicious for calling out a pretty terrible first post from sandro tbh

On December 10 2023 19:20 marvellosity wrote:
Reads like a newbie tryharding and sandro is not that


On December 10 2023 19:56 marvellosity wrote:
Why aren’t you just outright omgusing DP here Trfel?

I know that’s what I’d be doing in your spot

To me it's very hard to believe Marv reads the same DP post as I read and has 0 suspicion of Trfel.
On December 10 2023 20:12 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2023 20:03 Trfel wrote:
On December 10 2023 19:56 marvellosity wrote:
Why aren’t you just outright omgusing DP here Trfel?

I know that’s what I’d be doing in your spot
Thought about it, but in the end I don't have much of a read on him. I look forward to getting to interact with him a bit, I think his posts have given a reasonable picture of how he is approaching the game and I am interested to see how that develops.
On December 10 2023 19:52 marvellosity wrote:
Jeez, so srs
I did attempt to engage in light conversation too, but no one seemed interested.

You think it’s reasonable he’s calling you out for calling out sandro?

On December 10 2023 20:13 marvellosity wrote:
If I came In the the thread first and had called out sandro’s post, I would think it was insane DP was calling me on it.

Just sayin.



What also ticked me off is that he never addresses any of the points of DP or whatever he says is terrible about my post, he is just glossing over it "Trfel calls out Sandro and DP calls out Trfel for calling out Sandro". This sort of simplification doesn't make sense and it's the details of how things happen that are important:
I really started to see marv as mafia at this point, and his actions would make more sense if Trfel and DP are town and he is trying to pit them off against each other. He doesn't want to add details of how my post is scummy for XYZ or how what DP is doing is suspicious, he is just the guy on the sidelines saying "Oh, I can't believe you are going to let him get away with THAT" and watching chaos ensue.

I was coming to this on a clean slate and trying to get a new perspective, but again I can't see town Marv would do things in this manner. The only things that make sense to me here is a mafia agenda.

I'll stop here as I have to do some work, but I'll be continuing my reread and sharing more of my full thought process.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 12 2023 22:28 GMT
#1367
On December 11 2023 05:06 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2023 04:49 Trfel wrote:
On December 11 2023 04:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am gonna take a little break. My feet have been cold for like 3 days because of shitty socks, and i just want to go to sauna now that i can. Will be back in an hour.

If anyone would like to have an opinion on Holyflare, and especially on what i said on him, i would appreciate.
To be honest I think you are nitpicking a bit. Even if we say you are right and Holyflare isn't, I'm not sure what that demonstrates. It means he messed up in reading the thread maybe, I don't think it makes him mafia. I think that the overall picture of Holyflare's play is much more important.

Holyflare, thoughts on DarthPunk? I get that it's night in Australia but he still feels a bit off to me.


I don't like his attack on you and I think Palmar perhaps persuaded him off from tunelling you further but he tried to play it off like he came up with that idea himself to appear like he was being reasonable and then said you could be mafia anyway. He also said you weren't inquisitive about finding out information from people, while literally trying to take up all of your time with little questions thus giving you not much time to do that.

I don't know what to think of that though because I'm historically bad at reading DP. Not sure I could make a gut read on it but somewhere middle of the pack, possibility of being townie but not outright surprised if mafia. See what he does next given time.

Have you made a list post summing up what your current reads are?


This exchange feels a bit off to me. The Trfel soft defense of HF, throwing the question to HF about DP and HF's response all sound a bit forced to me. It just looks like they give each other an undue amount of charitability. This feels like mafia on mafia to me.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 12 2023 22:37 GMT
#1381
As much as I mirrored Koshi's reads in the beginning, he has been skirting by while not doing much of anything.
We all know for a fact that yesterday lynch was on a townie and the other viable option (me) I know was town too. Mafia had no reason to stick out their necks and do something to sway the lynch.
That makes it more likely that mafia is hiding in the likes of Koshi and Chezinu.
Chezinu's presence and engagement in particular has been a lot lower than other times I played with him and he was town. Normally he will try to interact with people and make weird accusation posts trying to get his point across.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 12 2023 22:42 GMT
#1391
dmb also looks bad
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 02:53 GMT
#1494
6 to 10 for me is family time, got here now.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 02:56 GMT
#1495
I think mafia is within HF Trfel Chez Marv Koshi DMB. Would leave the last 3 for last maybe?
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 03:12 GMT
#1502
So we can either lynch me, I flip and then we can proceed on lynching Trfel, HF, Chez or we can go straight to them.

The fact that HF was fake claiming should be obvious, or he is omega ultra dumb, which I don't think is within the realm of possibility. I'm interested to read what his explanation is before speculating on it and feeding him any ideas.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 03:13 GMT
#1503
Chezinu give us something, even if it's cryptic
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 03:16 GMT
#1507
Btw DP, congrats on figuring out I was town and playing a really obvious town game, don't feel bad you got peer pressured by mafia/jubjubs to go back on your read.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 03:26 GMT
#1508
On December 13 2023 12:14 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2023 12:13 sandroba wrote:
Chezinu give us something, even if it's cryptic

DP blue, Truffle red/blue read more red now.

Why blue?
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 03:36 GMT
#1511
Chezinu kinda breaking out of character being reasonably straightforward while saying very little seems like mafia chez to me.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 13 2023 13:36 GMT
#1553
On December 13 2023 17:30 Koshi wrote:
DMB is mafia.
1) She is flying under the radar.
2) I think she voted Vivax because he is a threat to her. And because Vivax posted a good list.
Show nested quote +
On December 11 2023 11:16 die_meatbaby wrote:
On December 11 2023 11:07 Vivax wrote:
On December 11 2023 10:56 DarthPunk wrote:
On December 11 2023 10:54 Vivax wrote:
On December 11 2023 10:50 DarthPunk wrote:
On December 11 2023 10:44 Vivax wrote:
I'm not sure that Palmar's is a genuine effort to read me over some egotistical push.


I think you are failing your own town litmus test. Where you are usually more engaged as town.


Should have done enough to display my current thoughts. I'm hoping for wagons and vote accordingly.


You haven't though.


I can tell you who isn't in the clear for me: And that's a majority but I can't do much about it with my current degree of certainty.

You, marv, dmb, Chez, Palmar, HF. Sandro, Trfel.

I'm wondering if I should bury my sandro + Trfel approach and just assume it's two townies starting the game off like that.

##Unvote


Okey what kind of wagon are you trying to build here. Like i really really try to see it but now you making my opinion on you even worse
#vote vivax

3) Last one to move from Vivax to Sandroba. Even though she was moving with thread sentiment to a more Vivax is not mafia 30 mins prior.
4) Dont think she made 1 good post so far. Very bad of Palmar to make her so townie after that 1 "independent research" Vivax vote. Because really... That isn't that good at all.

Anyway. Start putting her in your PoE people.

##Vote Sandroba

(Last game I was mafai and I made a case on somebody and voted somebody else)

Koshi, what made you read me town in the first place? What made you think I'm mafia now?
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