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On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is.
Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case
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On December 16 2023 16:48 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself?
Neither really. We’re weekend posting.
The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options.
Rayn
HF
Sandroba.
All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch
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On December 16 2023 17:48 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is. Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case
I don’t have the truth for you, just asking questions!
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Also I didn't read your filter marvellosity, that's just the current impression I have. Maybe if I read your filter I would think differently. But you post a lot so realistically speaking that isn't going to happen.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 16:48 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself? Neither really. We’re weekend posting. The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options. Rayn HF Sandroba. All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch
You’re set on DMB town?
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:48 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is. Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case
I was definitely the more openly doubt-y. But that’s more of a personality thing I think.
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On December 16 2023 17:50 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:48 Trfel wrote:On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is. Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case I don’t have the truth for you, just asking questions! Fair enough. I just don't know what to make of Palmar and I respect your ability to read him, so as a result I am very interested in your thoughts. Perhaps the things that stick out to me aren't the important things though.
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I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two?
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On December 16 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 16:48 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself? Neither really. We’re weekend posting. The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options. Rayn HF Sandroba. All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch What happened to me being possible mafia?
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On December 16 2023 17:53 Trfel wrote:
I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two?
Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now.
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On December 16 2023 17:56 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:53 Trfel wrote:
I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two? Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now. That's fair enough. I would still guess that Palmar is town, just not as certain of him being town as I was before.
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On December 16 2023 17:50 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote:On December 16 2023 16:48 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself? Neither really. We’re weekend posting. The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options. Rayn HF Sandroba. All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch You’re set on DMB town?
Yes but I forgot Trfel. He can be mafia.
I will listen if someone disagrees on dmb. But so far my town reads have been good and with a mislynch available I feel like the right course of action is to follow the simple path.
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On December 16 2023 17:58 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:56 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:53 Trfel wrote:
I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two? Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now. That's fair enough. I would still guess that Palmar is town, just not as certain of him being town as I was before.
Thinking about d1. Palmar started Vivax wagon, at that point you had 3 votes and no one else had more than 1. So from a gameplay perspective, if palmar is mafia then he’s doing it to distract from you. Of course he could potentially be doing it to wrest control of the thread to lynch Vivax, but why? He risks Vivax making himself look v town (the unfortunate fact is the deadline and when people are around meant that even high Vivax became clearly town it was too late)
The town explanation is really, really easy. Palmar wakes up on 2nd 48h of day 1. Decides to filter Vivax. Sees it’s trash. Wants to lynch him.
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On December 16 2023 17:55 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote:On December 16 2023 16:48 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself? Neither really. We’re weekend posting. The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options. Rayn HF Sandroba. All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch What happened to me being possible mafia?
Forgot you existed.
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On December 16 2023 18:01 marvellosity wrote:
The town explanation is really, really easy. Palmar wakes up on 2nd 48h of day 1. Decides to filter Vivax. Sees its trash. Wants to lynch him.
Poetry
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On December 16 2023 18:01 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:58 Trfel wrote:On December 16 2023 17:56 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:53 Trfel wrote:
I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two? Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now. That's fair enough. I would still guess that Palmar is town, just not as certain of him being town as I was before. Thinking about d1. Palmar started Vivax wagon, at that point you had 3 votes and no one else had more than 1. So from a gameplay perspective, if palmar is mafia then he’s doing it to distract from you. Of course he could potentially be doing it to wrest control of the thread to lynch Vivax, but why? He risks Vivax making himself look v town (the unfortunate fact is the deadline and when people are around meant that even high Vivax became clearly town it was too late) The town explanation is really, really easy. Palmar wakes up on 2nd 48h of day 1. Decides to filter Vivax. Sees it’s trash. Wants to lynch him. Wouldn't mafia Palmar push Vivax because it was an easy push to make himself look towny?
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Trfel as mafia scares me probably the most but not sure it’s the most likely lynch. Kinda feel that’s still just rayn
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On December 16 2023 18:24 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 18:01 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:58 Trfel wrote:On December 16 2023 17:56 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:53 Trfel wrote:
I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two? Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now. That's fair enough. I would still guess that Palmar is town, just not as certain of him being town as I was before. Thinking about d1. Palmar started Vivax wagon, at that point you had 3 votes and no one else had more than 1. So from a gameplay perspective, if palmar is mafia then he’s doing it to distract from you. Of course he could potentially be doing it to wrest control of the thread to lynch Vivax, but why? He risks Vivax making himself look v town (the unfortunate fact is the deadline and when people are around meant that even high Vivax became clearly town it was too late) The town explanation is really, really easy. Palmar wakes up on 2nd 48h of day 1. Decides to filter Vivax. Sees it’s trash. Wants to lynch him. Wouldn't mafia Palmar push Vivax because it was an easy push to make himself look towny?
Pretty sure town sentiment at the time was that he seemed townie anyway.
I mean sure, maybe. 95% of stuff can have 2 explanations. Just which is more likely to be right. My townie version requires like 0 assumptions, that’s all.
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On December 16 2023 10:29 die_meatbaby wrote:
Tip top Town:
Alakslam
Marv
Town
HF
Rayn
Sandro
not Town:
Koshi
Trfel
def. not Town
PALMAR
Despite earlier, ewww
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On December 16 2023 18:52 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 10:29 die_meatbaby wrote:
Tip top Town:
Alakslam
Marv
Town
HF
Rayn
Sandro
not Town:
Koshi
Trfel
def. not Town
PALMAR Despite earlier, ewww
Well? 
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EPT
