Quarterly Mafia 1 - part 2 - Page 110

On September 05 2023 22:27 TankTopTiger wrote:
Errr... I don't know Marv but if I was in ScuMarv's position I would have bussed both those guys so fast sorry not sorry.

LS is extremely bussable (he seems to be developing a playstyle of dying and taking people with him). Koshi pushed the gun into his own damn mouth and forced town to pull the trigger. This isn't some 5D scum play it's the deterministic state of the game pushed into motion by forces beyond our remaining scummer's control.

On September 04 2023 10:57 DarthPunk wrote:
DP's GameFAQ's Endgame walkthrough version 1.0

Obligatory before I maybe get killed post:

I think we are in a kind of 3 worlds situation in which 1 of 3 scenario's is the actual reality of the game and our job over the coming days is to work out which world we are living in.

I will outline these scenarios in order of likelihood (in my opinion)

Scenario 1 - Scum team collapse

This scenario basically assumes that the scum team suffered a catastrophic collapse for a variety of reasons. They have no thread control, are not able to find and push mis lynches and their team morale is in the gutter so nobody is trying.


I still think that this is a likely scenario because mathenalin is looking 'classically scummy' and clearly doesn't care about solving the game.

Issues with this is that if the scum team are just self voting one by one, first Koshi, then Math why have they not just conceded the game.

Maybe it is as Marv says, they are relying on us to WIFOM ourselves out of the obvious lynches and rely on us fucking up super badly in order to win.

I guess if this scenario is true we lynch math and then reassess (other option that fits is TTT but I think he is town)

Scenario 2 - Double Bus Gambit

This scenario is most likely if Mathenalin flips town.

Basically we have had a Goon and Mafia RB flip. There is a large chance that they have a GF remaining.

In this scenario LS was bussed because it was only a matter of time until he was lynched, and Koshi decided after failing to gain any traction and looking very scummy after his push on me that he was not able to recover and/or that attempting to not lynch Koshi was basically a scum claim for the remaining Mafioso.

So the GF lynches LS, lynches Koshi and tries to get to end game, not fearing a check.

This is probably the most dangerous scenario for town.

I think in this situation the remaining scum sit in the Marv/Vivax/JSL group. for various reasons which i will outline below.

JSL: this is fairly straightforward, he has been consistently scummy all game, TTT is strong reading him scum, I hated the way he only really cared about the lynch when he was trying to move people off of LS and onto math (in the world where math is town.) there have been a few occasions where things felt manufactured rather than genuine from him honestly i have been back and forth on him all game.


Marv: This would be the most personally upsetting result, cause if he is mafia he is channelling his old skills and pocketed me really hard. There are some good reasons to think Marv is mafia even though he seems quite reasonable and townie.

1.) I analyzed his voting patterns and it makes me nervous, for example: I sheeped his LS read but he was one of the last people on the wagon, after me, and the wagon had a lot of momentum when he got on. He also only voted for Koshi 20 minutes after Koshi self voted. Which makes me wonder if they discussed how they would handle Koshi in the scum discord. I guess when I looked at the voting patterns the concern was that there was a dissonance between marv's position on votes and his actually voting.

2.) There are a lot of metrics that align with his scum play, for example, I am on track to double his post count, he has been outposted by JSL and Perfection. (could be IRL but also tracks with his engagement levels as scum vs as town) He has also been more amiable, which is something that I associate with his mafia play more than his town play.

There is nothing that really jumps out at me that makes him mafia, but if he is trying as mafia it really wouldn't

Vivax: DMB NK, generally looking less town as time goes on, less curious than I would expect. He looks really good for getting DMB to secure the LS lynch, but that is also a bus play that I would expect, particularly if he was needing to manage the image of people.


Scenario 3 - Mafia Vig

This is basically the least concerning and most verifiable scenario.

The idea is that Perfection shot VE (a potentially strong player) while VE's stock was low and claimed vig in order to play the long game.

in this instance because the goon and RB have flipped, there cannot be a GF and Mafia Vig at the same time, COP should check here to eliminate this scenario.

I don't think this is very likely but should be eliminated for clarity.

Where to from here:


I think we lynch Mathenalin and either win the game or eliminate scenario 1.

if he flips town

Consider Scenario 2 (hopefully blue claim can help at some point): I like marv or JSL as mafia in this scenario, probably marv is most likely.

Consider Scenario 3 only if you happen to get a red check on Perfection

If you are town: and I am killed and you need to figure out Scenario 2 without me, you will need to have some thread presence to get it done. That means you actually need to push activity and make yourself obviously town, you will need to find the reasons the last mafia is mafia and make it clear to the others.

Good Luck!!