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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:03 Hapahauli wrote: Should I say? Or should I wait?Ok. The suspense is too much. What did you do? Presumably mafia already knows what I did...... Unless they held their shot. Which is what I'm worried about currently. But that would be quite the gamble, I dunno if mafia would actually do that. Though it would be hilarious if it worked. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:03 Hapahauli wrote: Also, shouldn't you know what I did if you are town?Ok. The suspense is too much. What did you do? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:06 Trfel wrote: Also, shouldn't you know what I did if you are town? Well I didn't receive a roleblock notification if that's what you're asking. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:13 Trfel wrote: Hapahauli, would mafia hold their KP here? I don't think so actually. I thought it was possible, but it's not like mafia guarentees a mislynch if you RB a poor unfortunate townie and we auto-lynch him. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:18 Hapahauli wrote: Yes I was.Actually before I do the math, were you Roleblocked Trfel? This affects the analysis. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
For scum to hold the shot, they would have to have to have a >75% chance of victory by holding it. Mafia holding the shot would be an attempt to "frame" a townie or mislynch Trfel. Problem is that Trfel has a 50% chance of "blocking" mafia. Therefore from Trfel's perspective, you end up with a 50% of Trfel targeting a mafia and that mafia player getting "framed" by holding the shot, which does not seem like good odds to do so. So I'd say no. I don't think mafia holds KP here. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Obviously throw out all of this analysis if you targeted me Trfel, which in that case, you'd be lying scum since I wasn't roleblocked, and I'm obviously super innocent. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I failed to take into account that Trfel only has three realistic targets: Myself, Rayn and Vivax. That's 1/3 odds of blocking the shot, and 2/3 odds of mafia victory. So mafia needs >66% chance... and if they hold the shot, Mafia has a 66% chance of being targeted... Which is worse odds than the first scenario, so the "mafia has bad odds to hold KP" stands I think. | ||
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Vivax
21972 Posts
So assuming yes it's groundhog day again, and I was right. Additionally, why would mafia ever hold their shot? For some sort of unlikely grand finale where they mislynch rayn? Rayn + Hapa and all the post-game swag goes to yours truly. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Playing a board game with my roommate, be back later. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Vivax
21972 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:31 Trfel wrote: I'm just going to say it. I jailed raynpelikoneet. Playing a board game with my roommate, be back later. Hapa would have claimed RB if you jailed him. So kinda obvious tbh. But how TF are you roleblocked and rayn jailed? Something doesn't add up here. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 02 2020 07:33 Vivax wrote: Hapa would have claimed RB if you jailed him. So kinda obvious tbh. But how TF are you roleblocked and rayn jailed? Something doesn't add up here. Roleblock mechanics. Host confirmed that JK is broken down into 2 stages: 1) A high priority roleblock, then subsequently; 2) A low priority save. Therefore, Trfel can roleblock if he is roleblocked, but he cannot save | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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