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On November 03 2020 04:01 Hapahauli wrote: Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up? but me yamato ticktock and onegu all went so that would have raised it
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On November 03 2020 04:04 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 04:01 Hapahauli wrote: Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up? Wasn't it cause of Dirk?
Dirk was responsible for Level 1. I am referring to the increase from Level 1 to Level 2.
AFAIK, I don't think we ever got a complete list of who claimed to visit the Database on Night 0.
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On November 03 2020 04:07 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 04:01 Hapahauli wrote: Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up? but me yamato ticktock and onegu all went so that would have raised it
Ah, got it. Nevermind that.
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On November 03 2020 04:07 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 04:04 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 03 2020 04:01 Hapahauli wrote: Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up? Wasn't it cause of Dirk? Dirk was responsible for Level 1. I am referring to the increase from Level 1 to Level 2. AFAIK, I don't think we ever got a complete list of who claimed to visit the Database on Night 0.
On November 01 2020 18:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: Alakaslam (no) Tictock Koshi (no) Raynpelikoneet (no) Yamato77 (yes) Iamperfection (yes)
Hapahauli (roleblocked, so no) Grackaroni (no) Onegu Dirkzor (no) Acrofales (confirmed no) ShoCkeyy (no) [/QUOTE]
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United States9846 Posts
I changed my mind. I bet the other mafia in my group was dirkzor who panicked when he saw the entire other thread wanted to lynch Acro.
On October 30 2020 16:41 Dirkzor wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 16:33 yamato77 wrote: I personally think the best lynch tomorrow is Acro. Onegu and Grack I don't really expect much from as town, so it's a crapshoot to try to lynch them. I made my case on Acro and that has largely gone unresponded to so I stand by it. To be fair your buried your acro "case" in a the last paragraph in a very long post. I do think acro is also a but scummy, but not as much as grack. After reading his acros filter i stumbled upon one of his very first posts: Show nested quote +On October 28 2020 20:16 Acrofales wrote: Koshi, Dirkzor. Where are you? Rayn? You scum? Why ask to Koshi? He have posted once and that was his /in. No reason to think he was here. Myself and ray had just posted before game start so make sense... but not Koshi. Posts like this come from someone who knows Acro is mafia and is already looking to imply that Koshi is his partner. There's absolutely no reason to ping that post as town.
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I dont think the part you bolded means anything.
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Also why does there have to be 2 mafia in your thread?
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United States9846 Posts
The idea is that people will think Acro is trying to include his scum buddy (Koshi) even though he hadn't posted yet.
I don't see town looking through a filter and seeing that as the most pertinent information worth quoting.
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United States9846 Posts
There doesn't but I don't really see Koshi as potential scum anymore.
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On November 03 2020 04:30 Grackaroni wrote: The idea is that people will think Acro is trying to include his scum buddy (Koshi) even though he hadn't posted yet.
I don't see town looking through a filter and seeing that as the most pertinent information worth quoting.
I think the simplest explanation is that Acro included all europeans in his post and dirkzor just failed to see that.
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Game started afternoon EU time, early morning or night for US.
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On November 03 2020 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: 1.Iamperfection 2. Hapahauli 3. Grackaroni 4. Onegu 5. Dirkzor 6. Acrofales (mafia)
7. ShoCkeyy 8. Alakaslam 9. Tictock 10. Koshi 11. Raynpelikoneet 12. Yamato77
now who gets lynched who is not mafia in each thread? maybe shockeyy was the assumed scapegoat in the second thread. Maybe acrofales was the only mafia in first thread? I wouldnt bank on onegu/grack 1v1 and you definitely dont want to lynch yourself and you cannot pretty much lynch anyone out of iamp/hapa/dirk.
This is really interesting, and I think it heavily discounts the Onegu mafia theory. If you are Acro and set up the threads in this way, who is the mislynch target in 1-6? Onegu and Grack are the only realistic mislynch targets here.
Acro doesn't really attempt to push Grack at all, and instead pushes Onegu and Shockeyy for most of the day.
So we have to believe that Onegu and Acro had a plan to bus each other hard for town cred (unlikely, given how inactive Onegu was and generally is), or that Acro's motivations have more face-value to them.
The other thing that sticks out to me is Acro's attempt to goad me into shooting Onegu:
On October 30 2020 03:35 Acrofales wrote: If so shoot onegu.
On October 30 2020 03:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 03:38 Hapahauli wrote: I know why I would want Onegu shot. Why do you? He has no intention to play the game. I know onegu is often like this, but more likely he is *completely* useless when scum. He is now *completely* useless and I don't want to waste time, thought or effort on him. So having a self-claimed 3p shoot him seems like a neat solution! And then when he flips scum, you are super unlikely to be scum with him, and it is also less likely you have some weird cultist crap. Could still be SK, but that sounds easy to deal with.
Now I was Roleblocked (seemingly by mafia), so this may have been an "empty" play by Acro. However, if Acro seriously thinks I have KP, and he successfully "convinces" me into shooting Onegu, mafia is committed to Roleblock me for the rest of the game.
I am inclined to take Acro's words at face value once again - mafia generally don't goad third parties into shooting scumbuddies.
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Rayn, my assessment of Grack/Acro is that: 1) Acro never put any serious heat on Grack, and; 2) Grack had some minor suspicions on him throughout the early game, but none of them really stuck.
Does that line up with your interpretation of the game prior to Acro's flip?
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On November 03 2020 02:04 Hapahauli wrote: Honestly, the more I read TT's filter, the more I reallllly regret shooting him.
Yeah you should have shot me...
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for both grack and onegu why did they lynch their partner then if mafia ? Surely just lie about your vote no to waste time?
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I probably would have if Acro didn't ask me to :/
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On November 03 2020 05:27 iamperfection wrote: for both grack and onegu why did they lynch their partner then if mafia ? Surely just lie about your vote no to waste time? just for the cred because acros role is bad ? eh i dont think so
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On November 03 2020 05:27 iamperfection wrote: for both grack and onegu why did they lynch their partner then if mafia ? Surely just lie about your vote no to waste time?
Let's look at the hypothetical scenario of "scum-Grack" where the declared votes in-thread are:
Acro (5): Hapa, Grack, Shockeyy, Onegu, Dirkzor Onegu (1): Acro
... in the 5 vote scenario, it doesn't matter what a "scumbuddy" does - Acro still dies, making the scummer's action a moot issue. I believe this is what everyone thought the vote-count was going into the lynch.
Now let's play the 4 vote scenario with "Scum-Grack" with how the vote count actually played out.
Acro (4): Hapa, Grack, Onegu, Dirkzor Dirk (1): Shockeyy Onegu (1): Acro
If Dirk swaps his vote to create a no lynch, the effect is the following: 1) Acro is confirmed mafia; 2) Shockeyy is confirmed town. 3) Exactly 1 mafia is in the group of "Hapa/Grack/Onegu/Dirk", which means that 0-3 players can be confirmed town if that mafia dies.
I don't think that is a great outcome for mafia.
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That all aside, and mathematically speaking, it is optimal to lynch into "Thread B", since (assuming a standard 3p mafia team) there are 1-2 mafia present in that thread, vs. 0-1 in "Thread A". Therefore, we should look to killing Slam/Koshi before addressing Grack.
However, I do not believe Grack is clear.
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I dont really want to put this out there, I could not be lying about my role but my faction he knows I am mafia and trys to get you to shoot me knowing it will power me up... This was before my claim.
Also if there is another gun you really should shoot me. The next day you still lynch and then I stop all kills for a cycle if I dont immediately sacrifice myself it is a scum claim and you react accordingly
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