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On November 03 2020 00:46 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 00:42 Hapahauli wrote:
The player that looks the worst from Day 1 is Grack IMO.
As I stated before, he poked and prodded all of Day 1 and didn't make any commitments on Acro until SUPER LATE in the day, when it was pretty clear that everyone wanted Acro dead. I don't think that's true. I spent like half of that day reading through the thread from the start and there wasn't much of a consensus or really any activity at all. You dropped your case and left. Dirkzor voted 3 different people and then I voted Acro rather than try to go for a lynch of my own. I don't think Acro would be dead if I didn't put my vote there.
Literally all of thread B was screaming for Acro's head. Are you telling me that you didn't pay attention to that at all?
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Occam's razor says that Acro got lynched because mafia was inactive and had zero thread control. I'm much more inclined to look at passive players (onegu/slam/grack) before going down the Koshi path.
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On November 03 2020 01:02 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 17:04 Koshi wrote:On October 30 2020 16:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 30 2020 16:33 yamato77 wrote:
I personally think the best lynch tomorrow is Acro. Onegu and Grack I don't really expect much from as town, so it's a crapshoot to try to lynch them. I made my case on Acro and that has largely gone unresponded to so I stand by it. So this IS a scumread? Sorry i didnt see it because you didnt say you think he is mafia:
One person I absolutely do not care for is Acro. He is hyper-focused on Hapa's claim to a fault. His comments on anything outside of that since the early parts of the game are sparse. He wrote a whole bunch of nothing about my spat with Rayn and has followed up on literally nothing except his evaluation of a single 3p claim. This fixation is something that appears genuine, but could easily come from mafia. I do not trust him.
100% mafia read and I would vote Acro just based on that. -eats carrot- -eats carrot- -eats carrot- -eats carrot-
I believe the horse-language translation is that Koshi is the most plausible mafia-bus candidate. Vote Acro super decisively and try to dramatically claim cred for it, even though it wasn't his original idea, and several other players had concrete suspicions of Acro before him.
On November 02 2020 21:44 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 17:04 Koshi wrote:On October 30 2020 16:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 30 2020 16:33 yamato77 wrote:
I personally think the best lynch tomorrow is Acro. Onegu and Grack I don't really expect much from as town, so it's a crapshoot to try to lynch them. I made my case on Acro and that has largely gone unresponded to so I stand by it. So this IS a scumread? Sorry i didnt see it because you didnt say you think he is mafia:
One person I absolutely do not care for is Acro. He is hyper-focused on Hapa's claim to a fault. His comments on anything outside of that since the early parts of the game are sparse. He wrote a whole bunch of nothing about my spat with Rayn and has followed up on literally nothing except his evaluation of a single 3p claim. This fixation is something that appears genuine, but could easily come from mafia. I do not trust him.
100% mafia read and I would vote Acro just based on that. Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 18:13 Koshi wrote:On October 30 2020 17:43 Acrofales wrote:On October 30 2020 17:04 Koshi wrote:On October 30 2020 16:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 30 2020 16:33 yamato77 wrote:
I personally think the best lynch tomorrow is Acro. Onegu and Grack I don't really expect much from as town, so it's a crapshoot to try to lynch them. I made my case on Acro and that has largely gone unresponded to so I stand by it. So this IS a scumread? Sorry i didnt see it because you didnt say you think he is mafia:
One person I absolutely do not care for is Acro. He is hyper-focused on Hapa's claim to a fault. His comments on anything outside of that since the early parts of the game are sparse. He wrote a whole bunch of nothing about my spat with Rayn and has followed up on literally nothing except his evaluation of a single 3p claim. This fixation is something that appears genuine, but could easily come from mafia. I do not trust him.
100% mafia read and I would vote Acro just based on that. Good morning. This is more like the TL mafia I remember. Piling on me for no good reason. Especially the lurkers. 100% mafia move. Anyway, I'll use my ability tonight and that'll prove I'm town. It'll be pretty obvious. More in a bit. 100% mafia move to enter the game. Call a read from another player convincing. During night. More than 50 hours before deadline. Ok then Acrofoles! Let's make a deal. If you night action doesn't prove 100% that you are town. I will lynch you! w00t  Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 19:17 Koshi wrote:
See? Those are 4 posts made as 1 post.
I think that is better.
I will do that for a while.
I am not motivated to find mafia because I failed last time.
I want to just sit in this game till the right answer hits me instead of me trying to hit the right answer.
I am going to vote based on thread sentiment, where I give people I enjoy more thread sentiment power.
Other than that. hmmm.
I think if we forced everybody to visit the thingie, it wouldnt be so bad. But no time now.
Dirkzor is 3p thingie detonator or something. I don't think he is mafia.
rayn is a great guy but spams too much and I wouldn't mind him out of the game. Like what did he do? Not enough structure atm. I don't know what he wants etc.
iamp made me laugh so he is cool.
Other than that... Nothing pops out really. Acro/TT are 2 people I am wary of. TT I don't know why but his name is in my head. Maybe he is tip top town if I would reread. But I wont.
Shockey. Not sure. Bit weird. Not really playing the game but he making sure people know he is in the game. So not hiding. Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 19:27 Koshi wrote:On October 30 2020 19:14 Acrofales wrote:
##commence Acceleration Zone
This will give us a double lynch. It has a slight downside of separating the thread today into two, but basically: splits the game into two minigames both with their own lynch.
Confirmed town, commence! I hope I am in your minithread. I had that role as mafia and did practically the same as you did. Boast about how pro town it was the entire time. Well. I boasted about it for days. You only a little. But I am more dramatic than you are so it's ok. Now I hope what I said is true but I think it is. I was really good that game. Think I won an award for it. I do deserve some cookies tbh
I need to give this more thought than I have been. I had been interpreting this as just arrogance.
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On November 03 2020 01:11 iamperfection wrote:
and you know he wouldn't even have to vote for him because he was in the other thread.
On top of that, he would have known this in advance, since Acro's role PM implies that he had a choice of who to send where.
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I think we're just waiting for TT to flip. Hopefully he does before the mayor has to make a lynch choice.
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Honestly, the more I read TT's filter, the more I reallllly regret shooting him.
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Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up?
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On November 03 2020 04:04 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 04:01 Hapahauli wrote:
Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up? Wasn't it cause of Dirk?
Dirk was responsible for Level 1. I am referring to the increase from Level 1 to Level 2.
AFAIK, I don't think we ever got a complete list of who claimed to visit the Database on Night 0.
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On November 03 2020 04:07 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 04:01 Hapahauli wrote:
Did we ever resolve from Night 0 why the corruption counter went up? but me yamato ticktock and onegu all went so that would have raised it
Ah, got it. Nevermind that.
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On November 03 2020 02:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
1.Iamperfection
2. Hapahauli
3. Grackaroni
4. Onegu
5. Dirkzor
6. Acrofales (mafia)
7. ShoCkeyy
8. Alakaslam
9. Tictock
10. Koshi
11. Raynpelikoneet
12. Yamato77
now who gets lynched who is not mafia in each thread? maybe shockeyy was the assumed scapegoat in the second thread. Maybe acrofales was the only mafia in first thread? I wouldnt bank on onegu/grack 1v1 and you definitely dont want to lynch yourself and you cannot pretty much lynch anyone out of iamp/hapa/dirk.
This is really interesting, and I think it heavily discounts the Onegu mafia theory. If you are Acro and set up the threads in this way, who is the mislynch target in 1-6? Onegu and Grack are the only realistic mislynch targets here.
Acro doesn't really attempt to push Grack at all, and instead pushes Onegu and Shockeyy for most of the day.
So we have to believe that Onegu and Acro had a plan to bus each other hard for town cred (unlikely, given how inactive Onegu was and generally is), or that Acro's motivations have more face-value to them.
The other thing that sticks out to me is Acro's attempt to goad me into shooting Onegu:
On October 30 2020 03:35 Acrofales wrote:
If so shoot onegu.
On October 30 2020 03:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 03:38 Hapahauli wrote:
I know why I would want Onegu shot. Why do you? He has no intention to play the game. I know onegu is often like this, but more likely he is *completely* useless when scum. He is now *completely* useless and I don't want to waste time, thought or effort on him. So having a self-claimed 3p shoot him seems like a neat solution! And then when he flips scum, you are super unlikely to be scum with him, and it is also less likely you have some weird cultist crap. Could still be SK, but that sounds easy to deal with.
Now I was Roleblocked (seemingly by mafia), so this may have been an "empty" play by Acro. However, if Acro seriously thinks I have KP, and he successfully "convinces" me into shooting Onegu, mafia is committed to Roleblock me for the rest of the game.
I am inclined to take Acro's words at face value once again - mafia generally don't goad third parties into shooting scumbuddies.
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Rayn, my assessment of Grack/Acro is that:
1) Acro never put any serious heat on Grack, and;
2) Grack had some minor suspicions on him throughout the early game, but none of them really stuck.
Does that line up with your interpretation of the game prior to Acro's flip?
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I probably would have if Acro didn't ask me to :/
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On November 03 2020 05:27 iamperfection wrote:
for both grack and onegu why did they lynch their partner then if mafia ?
Surely just lie about your vote no to waste time?
Let's look at the hypothetical scenario of "scum-Grack" where the declared votes in-thread are:
Acro (5): Hapa, Grack, Shockeyy, Onegu, Dirkzor
Onegu (1): Acro
... in the 5 vote scenario, it doesn't matter what a "scumbuddy" does - Acro still dies, making the scummer's action a moot issue. I believe this is what everyone thought the vote-count was going into the lynch.
Now let's play the 4 vote scenario with "Scum-Grack" with how the vote count actually played out.
Acro (4): Hapa, Grack, Onegu, Dirkzor
Dirk (1): Shockeyy
Onegu (1): Acro
If Dirk swaps his vote to create a no lynch, the effect is the following:
1) Acro is confirmed mafia;
2) Shockeyy is confirmed town.
3) Exactly 1 mafia is in the group of "Hapa/Grack/Onegu/Dirk", which means that 0-3 players can be confirmed town if that mafia dies.
I don't think that is a great outcome for mafia.
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That all aside, and mathematically speaking, it is optimal to lynch into "Thread B", since (assuming a standard 3p mafia team) there are 1-2 mafia present in that thread, vs. 0-1 in "Thread A". Therefore, we should look to killing Slam/Koshi before addressing Grack.
However, I do not believe Grack is clear.
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On November 03 2020 06:07 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 05:37 Hapahauli wrote:
That all aside, and mathematically speaking, it is optimal to lynch into "Thread B", since (assuming a standard 3p mafia team) there are 1-2 mafia present in that thread, vs. 0-1 in "Thread A". Therefore, we should look to killing Slam/Koshi before addressing Grack.
However, I do not believe Grack is clear. Hmm... I don't think anybody really asked, as I didn't see, but what made you shoot TT? was it this? Show nested quote +On November 02 2020 18:54 Tictock wrote:
I checked Dirk, and it seems corruption is good for scum as the next level boosts their KP.
Assuming somebody is already assigned to checking tonight so I will not visit again.
I was going to shoot TT or Onegu that night. What made me decide on TT was the following:
1) Acro goading me into trying to shoot Onegu didn't sit right with me.
2) Onegu's behavior had been, pretty attention seeking in the early game. Yes he was lurking, but he was not contributing and getting in people's faces about it.
3) I wanted to essentially "un-do" the no-lynch in Thread B so we would have some information to work with from the votes.
So I submitted my night action and was asleep while TT did his posting last night. I woke up and he was dead.
In retrospect, I regret not waiting until N2 to take the shot, since it was rash to do so when I didn't yet know Acro's alignment.
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On November 03 2020 06:19 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 06:17 Hapahauli wrote:On November 03 2020 06:07 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 03 2020 05:37 Hapahauli wrote:
That all aside, and mathematically speaking, it is optimal to lynch into "Thread B", since (assuming a standard 3p mafia team) there are 1-2 mafia present in that thread, vs. 0-1 in "Thread A". Therefore, we should look to killing Slam/Koshi before addressing Grack.
However, I do not believe Grack is clear. Hmm... I don't think anybody really asked, as I didn't see, but what made you shoot TT? On November 02 2020 21:47 Hapahauli wrote:
I shot TT. was it this? On November 02 2020 18:54 Tictock wrote:
I checked Dirk, and it seems corruption is good for scum as the next level boosts their KP.
Assuming somebody is already assigned to checking tonight so I will not visit again. I was going to shoot TT or Onegu that night. What made me decide on TT was the following: 1) Acro goading me into trying to shoot Onegu didn't sit right with me. 2) Onegu's behavior had been, pretty attention seeking in the early game. Yes he was lurking, but he was not contributing and getting in people's faces about it. 3) I wanted to essentially "un-do" the no-lynch in Thread B so we would have some information to work with from the votes. So I submitted my night action and was asleep while TT did his posting last night. I woke up and he was dead. In retrospect, I regret not waiting until N2 to take the shot, since it was rash to do so when I didn't yet know Acro's alignment. or you dont care because you have to kill everybody 
In what world would an SK think it was a good idea to claim 3p?
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Also FWIW, I intend to essentially claim my role at the end of N2, including what my 3p win condition is. At this point, I believe I can satisfy my condition while simultaneously being pro-town.
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On November 03 2020 06:26 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 06:23 Hapahauli wrote:
Also FWIW, I intend to essentially claim my role at the end of N2, including what my 3p win condition is. At this point, I believe I can satisfy my condition while simultaneously being pro-town. so according to you. You haven't visited anyone besides ticktcok because you were roleblocked correct? Just for the record.
Correct. N0 roleblock. N1 shot TT.
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On November 03 2020 06:31 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 06:26 iamperfection wrote:On November 03 2020 06:23 Hapahauli wrote:
Also FWIW, I intend to essentially claim my role at the end of N2, including what my 3p win condition is. At this point, I believe I can satisfy my condition while simultaneously being pro-town. so according to you. You haven't visited anyone besides ticktcok because you were roleblocked correct? Just for the record. I wonder if hapa claims rb because I didn't die
Regarding Roleblocks, there are two claimed roleblocks so far:
N0: Myself
N1: You (Shockeyy)
This leaves a couple of theories;
1) I am fake-claiming RB as mafia;
2) I am an anti-town 3p and I am fake-claiming RB;
3) I am an anti-town 3p and I was RB'd by mafia;
4) I am a pro-town 3p and I was RB'd by mafia.
1 and 2 are not likely scenarios, since I have nothing to gain by fake-claiming RB. If I fake-claim RB, I risk having a lot of suspicion thrown against me since there was seemingly no mafia night kill.
I believe 3 can be discounted as well. I shot TT. Why should I be killing mislynch targets as a hostile 3p, especially since I need other people to be lynched other than myself when all the mafia are dead? If this still doesn't convince you, then I hope my claim at the end of N2 will resolve things.
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Like I understand paranoia to some extent, but to believe that I am an anti-town 3p, you have to believe that I willingly put myself in an unwinnable situation on my 3rd post of the game, because I am obviously the most natural lynch target if all the mafia are dead and the game is still going.
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EPT
