EPTIf Rels is town, his modkill costs us a lynch. If we mislynch and Rels is modkilled, it's 4v2 MYLO which is far from ideal.
[M][N] Holy Guardians - Chapter 2 - Page 3
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If Rels is town, his modkill costs us a lynch. If we mislynch and Rels is modkilled, it's 4v2 MYLO which is far from ideal. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
@Raynpelikoneet: I know this is slightly WIFOM, but if Hapahauli is mafia and double bussed with Jockmcplop, why did he go into the deadline openly saying he doesn't care about the lynch? That seems really dumb to me. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Same with Hapahauli saying he is tempted to lynch a townread before a scumread. He's obviously not actually going to do that, so why does him saying that make him mafia? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I do want to check on Jockmcplop's read on BloodyC0bbler, where he said it checks out and keeps him at town lean. Does it really check out? Note to self. Also BloodyC0bbler's read on ShoCkeyy. Hapahauli made some really good points on this, where BloodyC0bbler said he read ShoCkeyy as town partially because some of his scumreads were reading ShoCkeyy as mafia. But that's actually not true at all. This point was kinda forgotten but I think it's worth bringing back up. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
ShoCkeyy, thanks for answering too. For the record, my "case" on raynpelikoneet was pretty weak, and I don't think it's worth revisiting. Just to make sure, you are saying Hapahauli is town and BloodyC0bbler and Chezinu are null? Or the reverse? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 05 2020 04:16 BloodyC0bbler wrote: So my memory is correct. BloodyC0bbler himself was suspicious of ShoCkeyy's entrance to the thread. Jockmcplop, BloodyC0bbler's townread at the time, was too.hmm, im having some intuitions that say "watch the trfel person, or that shockeyy" the entrance they made hasn't been good enough. Also glad to see you still play exactly as my brain remembers you Vivax. Fast and loose. Like I was at 17 apparently. This makes BloodyC0bbler's townread on ShoCkeyy early on even harder to understand. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Just thinking out loud, which given the low number of posts in the thread is fine I believe. Curious if anyone knows when Jockmcplop realized he was going to be lynched. I want to look at Jockmcplop's filter to try and get any hints to if there was an intentional bus play or not. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I know you already answered it here: On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote: But to me, that doesn't make any sense. Given that you said that you didn't like his entrance: The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him. On April 05 2020 04:16 BloodyC0bbler wrote: and your scumreads (Vivax, Hapahauli, and me) weren't focusing him at all. I looked at player filters to confirm this. I asked ShoCkeyy a few questions, but said my read on him was "exactly null." Vivax had ShoCkeyy had top scum for about 20 minutes, and quickly jumped away to focus on Jockmcplop. Hapahauli barely mentioned ShoCkeyy and didn't suggest he was mafia in the slightest.hmm, im having some intuitions that say "watch the trfel person, or that shockeyy" the entrance they made hasn't been good enough. So how did you arrive at this read? Because to me it doesn't add up. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 06 2020 23:33 Jockmcplop wrote: Does that really make sense?Yeah that checks out. BC still a townread for me then. Here's a look at some of Vivax's posts before BloodyC0bbler's first read list. The "unexplained reads." (pre post 120) + Show Spoiler [Vivax's posts at first] + On April 05 2020 12:44 Vivax wrote: You are probably town for this. I also think you are right on rayn but not for those reasons., On April 05 2020 14:43 Vivax wrote: Shockeyy do you have any scumreads or leads? Feels like you are just coexisting. Jock I really really think Trfel is town here. He has a mind of his own if I had to name the reason, instead of just being a void content factory. I kinda understand where BloodyC0bbler is coming from to put Vivax at a scum lean at this point. He explained his townread on me (Trfel), and said he is suspicious of raynpelikoneet, and implied that he is suspicious of ShoCkeyy. But there were no reasons given for the last two. And how did Vivax's posts change by BloodyC0bbler's updated read list? (post 121-225) + Show Spoiler [Vivax's posts later] + On April 05 2020 15:55 Vivax wrote: It's funny you quote a post where I explain why and ask for the why. There is enough content in the game already to form opinions, but you don't have any reads and want more content. I don't know if you're just that confused and lazy at reading or just mafia. On April 05 2020 17:20 Vivax wrote: Rayn, Shockeyy is probably scum. Also where Hapa seemed to intend to go with his posting. On April 05 2020 17:40 Vivax wrote: He's just posting along and not poking anywhere. Though I'm doubting the read a little because he just seems super carefree. Warming up for a Jock vote instead on a reread, tell me what you think? I think him going after Trfel here feels a bit like he was trying to echo some sentiment (from BC but also me at the start) so it seems kind of opportunistic and he's way too focused on just talking it out with him instead of explaining what makes Trfel scum besides the post where he said he was overdefensive. On April 05 2020 18:15 Vivax wrote: Fair enough, could use more Hapa in here anyway. But I still don't think the way Jock went after Trfel was townie. On April 05 2020 18:56 Vivax wrote: BC in this case seems to just take positions beforehand and then attach whatever reasoning he can muster to justify them, posthum. Also scummy af. On April 05 2020 19:11 Vivax wrote: (and a few more but you get the idea)How so. First thing he did was post a list. Then afterwards came any explanation for those reads. Also it bugs me massively what he writes about me. I mean sure, he doesn't understand how I read Trfel. Which is just that in the last game, he was posting 'analysis' on tons of people without seeming to have an actual opinion. While also seeming awkward and appeasing. That can be forgiven because I kept it short. But saying I have no reads or leans or claiming that not answering his question when it's obvious at what I'm looking at which answers it, is just false. I scumlean shockey, rayn, Jock. I townread Trfel and made all of those clear. But I have to admit chances are this is just bad town play. Depends really on how much he is willing to backtrack and admit it was just factually wrong. Admittedly, it seems like a reasonable change. I still struggle a little to see the initial read but if you accept the initial read, the reasons for the read to change do make sense. I'll probably be out for a bit. That or looking at Jockmcplop's filter some more. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 I was hoping to see how other people's interactions changed around the time it seems like Jockmcplop gave up (like, if people went harder to push him then, it's more likely they were bussing, etc). But given that my biggest scumread, BloodyC0bbler, wasn't around at all during that time anyway, there's probably not too much to be learned from it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
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I still think it's BloodyC0bbler, I'll re-evaluate more tomorrow. Kinda lazy currently after getting mafia day 1. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Let me know if anyone wants to talk about anything. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
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Trfel
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I feel like raynpelikoneet and Hapahauli are town. Raynpelikoneet because of not bussing Jocmcplop and his tinfoil scumread of me, feels really genuine. Hapahauli because he was the other Day 1 wagon and he's beeen doing a ton of quality analysis. However I know that raynpelikoneet is very strong as mafia and I can only assume Hapahauli is as well, I will try and read their filters and make sure. Chezinu and ShoCkeyy I both feel like are town? But I don't have a ton of reasoning for why. Chezinu because of meta (I don't like his lack of reads this game, but I know he sometimes does this as town too), but moreso because of his vote on Jockmcplop Day 1. That said I could definitely see him being mafia, I just don't know how to read him and how to see if he is indeed mafia. So it feels like a shot in the dark. ShoCkeyy I kinda forget about honestly. At a glance he feels similar to last game, where he was town. There have been some things that I don't really like about his play, specifically lack of reads/commitment to things, but I'm not rally sure if that makes him mafia or not I still need to watch most of Chezinu's videos. But if those aren't too helpful I'll probably focus on reading ShoCkeyy and going from there. And of course re-evaluating the other two (maybe after the night kill). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On April 10 2020 02:18 Hapahauli wrote: Purely because of Chezinu's vote on Jockmcplop?I don't see an option other than Shockey. Rayn, talk to me about your Trfel read when you get the chance. Maybe I'm tinfoiling too much, but the more I think about it, the more I think I could see it coming from mafia. Still a useful point but yeah, Chezinu is so unpredictable... | ||
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