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On March 27 2020 22:40 LightningStrike wrote:Barely awake was to tired to post last night Show nested quote +On March 27 2020 11:01 Trfel wrote:
GlowingBear and everyone else, care to respond to the actual points I've raised instead of meaningless nonsense?
Getting kinda sick of this.
Yes, I'm confused because one of my main scumreads is voting for the other one. I'm not confident enough in my reads to vote, given the circumstance. If you have any actual help or comments on my reads to help sort this out, I would really appreciate it.
Otherwise, BUGGER OFF. Regarding your case on Palmar (had to check meta this morning): He had a lazyish Day 1 before as town as shown in Mafia For Busy People and Mafia Mafia Mafia (his filters if you want them: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/534114-mafia-for-busy-people?user=Palmar https://tl.net/forum/mafia/528650-mafia-mafia-mafia-mafia?user=Palmar ) Now regarding no direction: He had 4 scum reads with a stronger one on Shockeyy by that point when you posted your case. As for your play: Even if one of your scumreads voted one of your other scumreads why not vote for the one who you think is scummier? That is why I think you're mafia. With that being said Palmar does move up for me as closer to town now with that meta research I done this morning. @LightningStrike, if we're going to argue meta and all that...
In Mafia for Busy People, Palmar was lynched Day 1, on a weekend. It's well known Palmar doesn't play on weekends. While Palmar didn't do anything in the linked game, he didn't start this game on a weekend, so there is no excuse.
In Mafia Mafia Mafia, again this is quite a different case, as Palmar was apparently in Portugal and didn't realize the game started until there were about 8 hours left in Day 1. Obviously not relevant to this situation. But I'll humor you. Read Palmar's filter from that game, and he gets right to the point in trying to figure out who he wants to vote for. He acknowledges the current cases and chooses his vote. Of course he has no thread presence (since he didn't read any of the game) so he had to play with that, but I still see more investment from Palmar in that game than in the current game.
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We waited so long, for this?
Honestly I'm quite disappointed. Very happy to kill [UoN]Sentinel after that.
Voting to consolidate. Still don't like Palmar.
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So little activity going into the deadline, makes me so uneasy...
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On March 31 2020 02:50 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2020 02:48 Trfel wrote:
So little activity going into the deadline, makes me so uneasy... Activity is fine considering the active players? I just feel like if [UoN]Sentinel is mafia there should be more going on right now, no? Either more of a counterpush or more of a push on him as a bus.
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Yesssss  Feels so good! The rolecop, too!
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Chezinu, do you and/or raynpelikoneet have any updated reads?
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On March 31 2020 03:03 Rels wrote:
but we're in MYLO now Really?
Started 9v2
ML 8v2
NK 7v2
D2 7v1
NK 6v1
HF 5v1
One mislynch brings it to MYLO, no?
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On March 31 2020 03:13 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2020 03:05 Trfel wrote:
Chezinu, do you and/or raynpelikoneet have any updated reads? Of course we do! Care to share them? I'm interested!
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The game is close to being solved, yes But there are still a few question marks that need to be cleared up.
Chezinu, any thoughts?
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Are you kidding me?
We lost our cop AND you guys are both scumreading me and voting for me already over nonsense associations. What a lousy way to wake up 
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On April 01 2020 03:15 Rels wrote:
Trfel what do you think of Chez and rayn chats? If they are fake, I think it would be under raynpelikoneet's direction; it sounds too much like raynpelikoneet. I think it's a decent town indicator for Chezinu but I've also seen mafia go to far greater lengths for deceptions.
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I'm not going to quote the stupid association posts because that would take forever. Instead I'll link to them:
GlowingBear's post
Rels's post
@GlowingBear, what do you mean by deflecting suspicion of [UoN]Sentinel? Do you mean not knowing his alignment? If so, yes I read [UoN]Sentinel as null/lurking for most of the game, I have a hard time reading into his posts (before the end of day 2) more than that. Holyflare even admitted to reading [UoN]Sentinel as null for his early posts (which, let's be honest, were most of his posts), so I wasn't alone in that.
You just quoted every time I mentioned [UoN]Sentinel, even if I was using his posts to make a point on someone else. You didn't actually read the posts in question. Even the "main point," I clearly explained it by saying that I wanted to see how [UoN]Sentinel's play developed while there were valid reasons to be suspicious of KelsierSC at the time. In retrospect a wrong read, but at the time it was very reasonable.
As for towards the end of Day 2, if I were really mafia and wanted to keep [UoN]Sentinel alive, why would I vote for Palmar? I would have instead coordinated with [UoN]Sentinel and stacked votes on GlowingBear and pushed GlowingBear, that would have been the better play by far. Getting Palmar lynched was a much harder play with a low likelihood of success.
Furthermore, and most importantly to these last points, if I were mafia, I would know [UoN]Sentinel wasn't going to try and save himself, so I would have voted for him and pushed him much sooner to get towncredit. There is absolutely no mafia motivation for what I did, because it would be the absolute stupidest thing for mafia to do there. [UoN]Sentinel didn't try to keep himself alive, I didn't try to keep him alive, there is literally no reason not to get town credit for the lynch there.
I can't really speak much to [UoN]Sentinel's posts. Obviously the implication is false, but in particular the last few posts are worthless to look at. [UoN]Sentinel didn't try to save himself, so his posts at that time are WIFOM because it's obvious he's going to die. Of course he would try to set up the last mafia for an easy mislynch or two. You can't look at those posts as anything more than WIFOM.
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As for finding who is actually mafia... that's harder. I still find Palmar quite suspicious but I haven't been able to re-evaluate since [UoN]Sentinel flipped. I haven't looked much at LightningStrike, Rels, or Chezinu this game, they feel kinda like town but I don't really know why. I need to re-evaluate them as well. Still have so much trouble reading LightningStrike and Chezinu.
GlowingBear is a tougher case. His posts and pushes have been all over the place. Generally the player with the most posts is town, and that would be GlowingBear here I believe. But two strong town players thought GlowingBear was mafia (Vivax and Holyflare), it's at least worth consideration. His play feels really erratic this game and that confuses me so I need to read him again for sure.
I really thought the cop would help us solve the game
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Is this a Chezinu with a case?!
What is the world coming to. I love it.
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On April 01 2020 08:46 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 06:13 Chezinu wrote:
Look and behold, I saw a bright beam of light. I gazed at it's frequency and felt the vibrations that hummed:
Rels wanted to lynch Trfel over Sentinel, waited for Palmar, Palmar said nothing new to what he said before.
Rels promised to write a case on Trfel. He didn't follow up, and after Sentinel flip the only case he provided is reasoned on because Sentinel was mafia.
ggnore I did promise a case lol, that's actually a good town meta tell for me I would have done it 100% as scum. I would have gotten a Trfel lynch easy as scum in this game lol Oh joy, the wonders of self meta ^^ What is this game devolving into...
Time to sheep the Chezinu?
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On April 01 2020 10:33 GlowingBear wrote:
Trfel, this next question could make me take my vote off of you and switch to Rels. Please answer it very careful and in it's entirety.
Which country are you from? I have a hard time believing you...
But I'm from the United States of America.
What am I missing?
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On April 01 2020 13:22 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 13:13 Chezinu wrote:On April 01 2020 12:53 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 12:33 Chezinu wrote:On April 01 2020 11:08 Trfel wrote:On April 01 2020 08:46 Rels wrote:On April 01 2020 06:13 Chezinu wrote:
Look and behold, I saw a bright beam of light. I gazed at it's frequency and felt the vibrations that hummed:
Rels wanted to lynch Trfel over Sentinel, waited for Palmar, Palmar said nothing new to what he said before.
Rels promised to write a case on Trfel. He didn't follow up, and after Sentinel flip the only case he provided is reasoned on because Sentinel was mafia.
ggnore I did promise a case lol, that's actually a good town meta tell for me I would have done it 100% as scum. I would have gotten a Trfel lynch easy as scum in this game lol Oh joy, the wonders of self meta ^^ What is this game devolving into... Time to sheep the Chezinu? Better watch out. Last time town followed the Chez. They got two mafias lynched back to back and one mafia killed by vigi. That was over ten years ago... Since then, the house of brown developed into a fine investigation office known throughout the world Ok, I need to actually read this game and play. After reading the game from a decade ago ( + Show Spoiler +https://tl.net/forum/mafia/105463-mini-mafia-2 ), I laughed so much at my trolls. If only I can troll as before. Do you know why the Chez doesn't build cases? Chez lynches suspects based on hunches. He doesn't know why he suspects who he suspects. It is not found in his conscious mind. So, the bear that glows. If you could troll for another day, what would you troll? I'm killing Trfel and if he flips town I'll kill Rels It's one of them 100% Now, if I could troll for another day, I would troll a check How are you so sure it's not Palmar? Or LightningStrike, for that matter?
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On April 01 2020 13:33 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 13:31 Trfel wrote:On April 01 2020 13:22 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 13:13 Chezinu wrote:On April 01 2020 12:53 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 12:33 Chezinu wrote:On April 01 2020 11:08 Trfel wrote:On April 01 2020 08:46 Rels wrote:On April 01 2020 06:13 Chezinu wrote:
Look and behold, I saw a bright beam of light. I gazed at it's frequency and felt the vibrations that hummed:
Rels wanted to lynch Trfel over Sentinel, waited for Palmar, Palmar said nothing new to what he said before.
Rels promised to write a case on Trfel. He didn't follow up, and after Sentinel flip the only case he provided is reasoned on because Sentinel was mafia.
ggnore I did promise a case lol, that's actually a good town meta tell for me I would have done it 100% as scum. I would have gotten a Trfel lynch easy as scum in this game lol Oh joy, the wonders of self meta ^^ What is this game devolving into... Time to sheep the Chezinu? Better watch out. Last time town followed the Chez. They got two mafias lynched back to back and one mafia killed by vigi. That was over ten years ago... Since then, the house of brown developed into a fine investigation office known throughout the world Ok, I need to actually read this game and play. After reading the game from a decade ago ( + Show Spoiler +https://tl.net/forum/mafia/105463-mini-mafia-2 ), I laughed so much at my trolls. If only I can troll as before. Do you know why the Chez doesn't build cases? Chez lynches suspects based on hunches. He doesn't know why he suspects who he suspects. It is not found in his conscious mind. So, the bear that glows. If you could troll for another day, what would you troll? I'm killing Trfel and if he flips town I'll kill Rels It's one of them 100% Now, if I could troll for another day, I would troll a check How are you so sure it's not Palmar? Or LightningStrike, for that matter? Check my post before deadline. I say why I think they're town and their play has been consistent since I first townread them. Ah, sorry. Missed that post in the flurry of deadline stuff.
Weren't you one of the people saying that being interested/invested in the game isn't a good metric for people's alignments? What makes the difference in using that metric on LightningStrike as opposed to someone else like Palmar?
I'll have to take a look at Palmar's read on [UoN]Sentinel, that's something I have yet to review.
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On April 01 2020 13:48 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 13:31 Trfel wrote:On April 01 2020 13:22 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 13:13 Chezinu wrote:On April 01 2020 12:53 GlowingBear wrote:On April 01 2020 12:33 Chezinu wrote:On April 01 2020 11:08 Trfel wrote:On April 01 2020 08:46 Rels wrote:On April 01 2020 06:13 Chezinu wrote:
Look and behold, I saw a bright beam of light. I gazed at it's frequency and felt the vibrations that hummed:
Rels wanted to lynch Trfel over Sentinel, waited for Palmar, Palmar said nothing new to what he said before.
Rels promised to write a case on Trfel. He didn't follow up, and after Sentinel flip the only case he provided is reasoned on because Sentinel was mafia.
ggnore I did promise a case lol, that's actually a good town meta tell for me I would have done it 100% as scum. I would have gotten a Trfel lynch easy as scum in this game lol Oh joy, the wonders of self meta ^^ What is this game devolving into... Time to sheep the Chezinu? Better watch out. Last time town followed the Chez. They got two mafias lynched back to back and one mafia killed by vigi. That was over ten years ago... Since then, the house of brown developed into a fine investigation office known throughout the world Ok, I need to actually read this game and play. After reading the game from a decade ago ( + Show Spoiler +https://tl.net/forum/mafia/105463-mini-mafia-2 ), I laughed so much at my trolls. If only I can troll as before. Do you know why the Chez doesn't build cases? Chez lynches suspects based on hunches. He doesn't know why he suspects who he suspects. It is not found in his conscious mind. So, the bear that glows. If you could troll for another day, what would you troll? I'm killing Trfel and if he flips town I'll kill Rels It's one of them 100% Now, if I could troll for another day, I would troll a check How are you so sure it's not Palmar? Or LightningStrike, for that matter? Why do you cast doubt? Dearest Chezinu, I still have yet to determine the color of most of the remaining players in the game. As such, I'm confused and curious when others discern the colors with such ease.
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Browsed through Rels' filter.
Chezinu brought up some very good points.
The only thing I'm confused about is his vote change Day 2, onto [UoN]Sentinel. Looking at the vote count at the time:
Day 2 of quarantine
Votes
GlowingBear: (2) Holyflare, Chezinu
[UoN]Sentinel: (2) GlowingBear, Palmar
Palmar: (2) Rels, Trfel
Non-voters: LightningStrike, [UoN]Sentinel, ShoCkeyy
GlowingBear is set to die with 2 votes
On the surface it actually looks good for Rels to switch to [UoN]Sentinel here. It's a 2-2-2 wagon, he switches at about the same time as LightningStrike, and these two switches together nearly seal [UoN]Sentinel as the lynch.
I need to go cook dinner now so this will be short, I'll look at this more later. But quick thoughts:
- ShoCkeyy was the only other person suspicious of Palmar. With a maximum of three votes on Palmar, and Palmar returning to play the game (at least, it maybe seemed so at the time), lynching Palmar was very unlikely. This could be observed the night before the vote switch (real time), and Rels said at that time he'd rather lynch me (Trfel) or [UoN]Sentinel than Palmar, preparing for a vote switch.
- Mafia could have easily decided to bus at about this same time, the night before the deadline. Knowing that a Palmar lynch was very unlikely, and a GlowingBear lynch was also very unlikely (only the two people already voting for him expressed suspicion of him at this point, plus GlowingBear would actively fight to save himself as needed with his high activity), [UoN]Sentinel's death is almost assured, even if he tried to save himself.
- [UoN]Sentinel put in no effort to try and stay alive. No one else tried to keep him alive either. This almost certainly indicates that [UoN]Sentinel was bussed.
So in reality, to me it looks like about a wash. Rels' play makes sense from a mafia perspective. The question is if it fits a town perspective.
@Rels:
Why did you stop scumreading Palmar on Day 2? I know he made a list post, but what about that changed your read? Or was it something else?
What changed in between this post and this post? You expected [UoN]Sentinel to make significant contribution to the game while asleep, or what?
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EPT
