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End of the World Party Mafia - Page 375

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 13 2019 00:10 GMT
#7481
On March 13 2019 09:06 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2019 09:03 LightningStrike wrote:
there 19 people left alive so unless we got 1 3rd party and about 4-5 maybe 6 mafia's left then than 3 kp total does make some sense. That just a stab trying to make sense of the kp.
But the point is how Acro fits in with the KP??

idk will try to figure out I not the greated on kp calculations and shit.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 13 2019 00:10 GMT
#7482
On March 13 2019 09:10 Grackaroni wrote:
Ace kill has potential to be a 3p attempt at killing mafia instead of a mafia night kill.

This a potential good point there.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
March 13 2019 00:15 GMT
#7483
whoops
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
March 13 2019 00:15 GMT
#7484
On March 11 2019 07:45 kitaman27 wrote:
Day Three Vote Count

[UoN]Sentinel (7): Pandain, Grackaroni, Mocsta, Ace, Ticktock, Acrofales, LightningStrike
Ace (6): Oatsmaster, Rels, Jockmcplop, Chezinu, [UoN]Sentinel, darthfoley
Chezinu (4): Alakaslam, Vivax, Fecalfeast, Onegu
Alakaslam (2): Tumblewood, sicklucker
Tubesock (1): Mr. Wiggles
Mr. Wiggles (1): Meapak_Ziphh

Not voting (2): ExO_, Tubesock

[UoN]Sentinel is currently set to be lynched.

Please let us know if you notice any mistakes. The deadline is Sunday, Mar 10 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in .


It was Chezinu!

Probably not but would be funny
Fecalfeast
Profile Joined January 2010
Canada11355 Posts
March 13 2019 00:17 GMT
#7485
how do we know there was no KP blocked or stacked or that mafia didn't lose a KP and without any vigs the night kills go to 4

Also
+ Show Spoiler [Mocsta's night kill theory] +
On March 13 2019 08:36 Mocsta wrote:
Sorry if this has been covered, but how do we explain 3KP on N3?

2 scummers dead = 1KP reduction


N1 = Cop, Vet, VT
Claims: Nil
Scum KP: Max (3 or 4)

Option 1 = 4KP (Scum) - 2shots on Iamp
Option 2 = 3KP (Scum) - RB on iamp
Option 3 = 3KP (Scum) + 1KP (3P) - Scum + 3P shoot iamp


[b]N2 = VT, VT, VT, VT, RB[b/]
Claims: Lurker Vig, Delayed Vig
Scum KP: Max (3 or 4)

Option 1 = 3KP (Scum) + 1KP (Lurker Vig) + 1KP (Delayed Vig)
Option 2 = 4KP (Scum) + 1KP (Delayed Vig)
Option 3 = 3KP (Scum) + 1KP (Delayed Vig) + 1KP (3P)


D3 = VT
Claims: Dayvig


N3 = Ace, Vig, VT
Scum KP: Max -1 (2 or 3)
Claims: Nil

Option 1 = 3KP (Scum)
Option 2 = 2KP Scum) + 1KP (3P)



Analysing N3

If option 1 applies (3KP), then, scum had 4KP on N1 + N2; OR a 3P is in play. No matter what, Acro lurker vig claim is false.

If option 2 applies (2KP), then scum had 3KP on N1 + N2 AND a 3P is in play. No matter what, Acro lurker vig claim is false.


???!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??


N1: Option 2
N2: Option 1
N3: Option 1
ModeratorINFLATE YOUR POST COUNT; PLAY TL MAFIA
Fecalfeast
Profile Joined January 2010
Canada11355 Posts
March 13 2019 00:18 GMT
#7486
There is no basis to assume mafia loses a KP from losing those two players
based entirely on the inclusion of this in the OP
On February 18 2019 04:15 kitaman27 wrote:
Game setup information:

Mafia KP formula: Hidden


ModeratorINFLATE YOUR POST COUNT; PLAY TL MAFIA
Fecalfeast
Profile Joined January 2010
Canada11355 Posts
March 13 2019 00:28 GMT
#7487
Now, with all that being said

Lurker vig is bullshit and sounds fake as fuck IDK why it took me this long to come to this conclusion. Acro is probably just mafia and mafia has a vig or two and he's just claiming some crazy shit

He's always seemed mafia to me anyway
ModeratorINFLATE YOUR POST COUNT; PLAY TL MAFIA
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22297 Posts
March 13 2019 00:36 GMT
#7488
On March 13 2019 09:28 Fecalfeast wrote:
Now, with all that being said

Lurker vig is bullshit and sounds fake as fuck IDK why it took me this long to come to this conclusion. Acro is probably just mafia and mafia has a vig or two and he's just claiming some crazy shit

He's always seemed mafia to me anyway


Welcome, we are on the same page now.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 13 2019 01:11 GMT
#7489
Rayn did call for Acro's head , Marv called for his head, Ace called for his head as well these night kill WIFOM is strong >.<
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 13 2019 01:56 GMT
#7490
Not as helpful as I had imagined as it does allow for more possibilities than i suspected.

Firstly, I tried to be as thorough as I could with options however, I refuse to analyse a world where scum start with 2KP.

I rarely see KP rounded UP, but it is included for the sake of discussion.
I also think the traitor leads to two distinct outcomes.
(1) Traitor always counts towards scum KP -> Mason could be town
(2) Traitor recruited before adding to scum KP -> Mason must be scum

As I mentioned to Vivax, I havent seen an active recruitment of traitor before, so i think this is unlikely, but is included for sake of discussion.

In short:
The game doesnt make sense if scum start with 4KP; unless there is missing KP claim.(e.g. hatter bomb)
Otherwise, the game had to play out as 2 shots on iamp, and scum + lurker vig or 3P to both shoot damdred -> highly unlikely.

In the world with scum starting with 3KP
There are a few options that work, pending round up, round down, 3P, no 3P.

In my mind, KP is normally rounded down and the traitor would count to scum KP. Thats just what I would expect from a balance point of view as an observer. Nothing to do with how the game has planned out.

In that scenario, the most likely arrangement is: That a 3P exists OR there is another batch of missing KP (e.g. a second hatter bomb)


[image loading]
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
March 13 2019 01:59 GMT
#7491
Good evening to our long time fans and first time listeners alike. You're tuned in to the Dead Zone Show, Liquidia's number one and only late night radio program. I'm your host Mr. Wiggles, and it's a pleasure to be with you here tonight, whether you're driving a dark lonely road all by yourself or racing down the bright city strip in a van packed full of your scum buddies.

We'll be responding to your fan mail here on the air before opening up the line to our dedicated callers. We hope you enjoy the program.

+ Show Spoiler +


you gotta dance
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
March 13 2019 02:08 GMT
#7492
On March 12 2019 15:53 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2019 10:14 Rels wrote:
On March 12 2019 09:13 Fecalfeast wrote:
My bomb was on chezinu for the record

probably why scum was afraid to kill you


Thats acualy true. If mafia knows ff is town they kill him if chez is town because its a 2 for 1 shot. Of course ff puts the bomb on the guy claiming his role who wouldnt. Like the logic is so sound no one can dispute today is over not voting chez is a scum claim. Goodbye see you next cycle this ones already over

yep. That was my reasonning
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
March 13 2019 02:10 GMT
#7493
On March 12 2019 19:03 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2019 15:53 sicklucker wrote:
On March 12 2019 10:14 Rels wrote:
On March 12 2019 09:13 Fecalfeast wrote:
My bomb was on chezinu for the record

probably why scum was afraid to kill you


Thats acualy true. If mafia knows ff is town they kill him if chez is town because its a 2 for 1 shot. Of course ff puts the bomb on the guy claiming his role who wouldnt. Like the logic is so sound no one can dispute today is over not voting chez is a scum claim. Goodbye see you next cycle this ones already over



Wow this is fucking genius.

Vote chez

don't fall for SL idea stealing tactics, I'm the genius
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
March 13 2019 02:13 GMT
#7494
We arranged a secret meeting earlier with the Brazen Brown Bomber to allow them to give their side of story regarding the recent explosives scares in Liquidia. Here's what they had to say:

On March 12 2019 14:01 Chezinu wrote:
Dear Mr. Wiggles.

If you are mafia and are roleplaying cause you know it make me want to never lymch you... its working... and then you vote not me... making want to save .myself more...


We accept the high praise given to our show here, and wish to express that we continue our work on the Dead Zone Show purely for the enjoyment of ourselves and others here in Liquidia. These are dark times, perhaps the end of times, and we are grateful for any smile or laugh we can bring to our listeners.

At this point, we doubt that Chezinu had any bombs to begin with, and think instead that his threats were meant to lash out at a cold uncaring town that was willing to lynch some of its most vulnerable citizens living out on the streets.

We at the show were happy to get Chezinu back on his feet, given his desire to save himself, but when we visited for a checkup earlier today, he was nowhere to be found. We hope that he has not fallen back into his old evil ways. We can only do so much to help him, and at a certain point it is up to himself to demonstrate his townieness to his accusers, or else finally face the noose.
you gotta dance
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 13 2019 02:15 GMT
#7495
Dear faithful host: What you think of Moscta's KP stuff from this page?
Sincerely, LS
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
March 13 2019 02:19 GMT
#7496
On March 12 2019 23:00 Tubesock wrote:
Acrofales - confirmed
Sicklucker
-he picked up why Chez is scum and FF is town
Fecalfeast
- bombing Chez is brilliant. I believe his claim and he’s the only hatter.
Onegu
- feels plus I like his mechanical analysis
LightningStrike
- Trust of the dead, too active for mafia LS
Vivax
- he’s alive because he’s useful for mafia, he does not promote town circles.

Alakaslam
- feels. I used to study Slam. This isn’t like any Slam I’ve ever seen. But feels.
Grackaroni
- he had a few posts I thought were spot on.
Mocsta
- probably should be null. Hmm

Jockmcplop
Meapak_ziph
Mr. Wiggles - I think he could be town BUT OMGUS, he half assed went after LS (LS rule), and most the dead wanted his lynch. Including Ticktock.
Darthfoley - POE mostly
Rels- mafia need a mason to find Traitor, Rsoultin said scum with good reason, and Ticktock, plus I think 8 blues is a bit much.

Pandain
- I’ll never believe that a town day vig would make this post + Show Spoiler [call 4 HF vig] +

On March 08 2019 18:43 Pandain wrote:
Hey everyone. For those who don't know me, I'm pretty sure it's pretty obvious to tell when I'm town or not when I'm actually playing. Expect to see a hell of a lot more activity, and actually I was pretty up to date with the whole part of day 2 when I asked Kita to replace after I saw AMG was similarly overwhelmed like me the first day.

I won't dwell on the past too much, but Holyflare 100% needs to be vigi'd tonight. It was remarkable watching the last day.

HF talk has already spammed the thread and later tonight I'm going to be looking into others, but I want to emphasize two points.

1. Fake claimed for no town reason . I don't care about fake claims in general ,I used to do it all the time. However, when Town does it it's because they have a reason to (and holyflare already established he did not just do it for the "Lolz".) There was no reason to fake-claim, and honestly I'm not sure about how it benefits mafia but it sure as hell makes no sense from a town perspective. Also can we just kill people who outright lie for no reason?

2. Furthermore, HF dying gives a huge amount of information. If he's mafia, I actually think we can start wrapping up the game because HF has been at the center of the thread and voting thread for both days. If he actually does just turn out to be a balls-out crazy town, I think it's very safe to say a good amount of mafia probably voted for him after he made his intentions clear to vote Palmar. Either way, town is in a good position.

However, I am pleading for a vigilante to end the job. The information best helps us if we know it at the start of the day cycle.

I'm actually not even certain I would support a Holyflare day 3 lynch.

Also just FYI BC and Ace need to die with fire if either of them live to day four.

It’s so incredibly overexplainy for someone who is going to shoot Holyflare.

Oatsmaster
- He townread then scumread Mr. Wiggles before this exchange + Show Spoiler [The Tube Trap] +
On March 08 2019 04:42 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2019 04:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Mafia boi

If wriggles does the same thing as you in that his case on you can be applied to him, and you are town, doesn’t that mean he’s also town? How does it mean he’s mafia


I never scumread him. So, it’s hilarious you are saying I’m scum for this, but apparently Wiggles is somehow town for doing exactly that. Take a look at my two posts:

Show nested quote +
On March 06 2019 18:52 Tubesock wrote:
Wiggles, you’ve been scumming me since before I even scummed Trfel. Yet you’ve never voted me. Why not? You seem pretty convinced, you have some others who agree. Think about what you say because I’m going to have great satisfaction copy and pasting things from your case on me in my defense.


Then

Show nested quote +
On March 06 2019 21:47 Tubesock wrote:
Wiggles is funny to me. I feel like I can just take his case on me, and find/replace his name for mine and submit it with equal fervor. Plus we voted on both wagons so we can’t be too far off.


Why do you think i wrote the big and bold?? It’s a fucking trap and you fell right into it.

Oatsmaster didn’t bother to read anything more than the single post and looking for “reads” at the shallowest of levels. You went straight to Tube is mafia because of this “slip” you found. Yet you had no idea it was a trap and you fell into it!!!

This action on your part is representative of your entire game. You are mafia.

Oatsmaster, who waffles on Mr. Wiggles, immediately takes Wiggles word without hesitation or investigating the truthfulness of either mine or Wiggles filter and says I’m scum. This of course was based on a flat lie that Oatsmaster didn’t bother at all to investigate. He shouldn’t have trusted Wiggles word as he didn’t show any indication that he strongly townread Wiggles. A town always distrusts, and when I confronted Oats, he was just “oh I’m wrong, whoops” and then just did whatever he was doing. I would think town would question Wiggles a bit after that.

Chezinu
- there’s four scenarios concerning the Great FF/Chezinu Mad Hatter Debate of 2019.
      1)Both are Mafia. This would be so goddamn genius. Lynch one they flip mafia and the other is confirmed town with 0% chance of being questioned for not being NK’d. Having a backup Cop flip day one and HF going on how this is a themed game I can see a world where Chez and FF think up this shit. Especially if Sicklucker is mafia also. They’re all crafty. But I think it is unnecessary and considering there’s only two dead mafia, I think it’s unlikely. But yolo end of era plays. HF tried one.
      2) Fecalfeast/Chezinu- a one for one would be a complete waste. Almost zero chance.
      3) both town- possible. Mafia could hold the shot on FF hoping they could mlynch Chezinu, and then shoot FF if he places a bomb on a mafia friendly target the next night. Seems needlessly risky for two free dead towns.
      4)FecalfeastCezinu- mafia would never shoot in this instance unless for some crazy bad reason they thought FF was lying about his bomb. I think this is by far the most likely situation. My vote will not waver from Chezinu.


I haven’t had internet since Thursday. Apologies. This Thursday and Friday I probably won’t have it again. There were technical difficulties at work.

I’m caught up, going to be rereading stuff. I’ll be here for several hours.

that post is so bad. Bunch of one liners for reads that should be way more explained, and an a super long explanation for the lead wagon that is arleady getting lynched. Good bus I gotta say

Basically all of them are garbage, the worst ones:
Sicklucker -he picked up why Chez is scum and FF is town

This is it? I did that first, where are my town points?
Fecalfeast - bombing Chez is brilliant. I believe his claim and he’s the only hatter.

Claiming a bomb on the person he's counterclaiming makes him town?
Vivax - he’s alive because he’s useful for mafia, he does not promote town circles.

That doesn't make anyone town.
Rels- mafia need a mason to find Traitor, Rsoultin said scum with good reason, and Ticktock, plus I think 8 blues is a bit much.

ofc I'm biaised =D but everything here is wrong. Do you think I thought rsoul and rayn were traitors? rsoul rescinded her scum read before dying. TT was suspicious of me but his main targets were MZ and Wiggles.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
March 13 2019 02:19 GMT
#7497
On March 13 2019 11:15 LightningStrike wrote:
Dear faithful host: What you think of Moscta's KP stuff from this page?
Sincerely, LS

Or rather the last few pages.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
March 13 2019 02:25 GMT
#7498
On March 13 2019 08:04 Vivax wrote:
Okay so I just spent an hour reading the last 15-20 pages. I get why y'all are annoyed with me for low activity but that's just the way the cookie has crumbled.Don't expect cases cuz I'm on one handed mobile

I don't understand why everyone is shocked Ace got NK'd. I'm pretty sure he's some old

FULL STOP THIS IS TOO ANNOYING

So you're telling me you wrote this on a phone, one handed.

You put in spaces after the commas, you capitalize everything correctly. You even quote a goddamn post.

DF is lying guys. There is no human being on this earth patient enough to put up with all that shit one handed. Hell, I've tried retyping this on a computer with my right hand and by the time I stopped, 2:55 had passed.

If df actually did what he claimed to have done, then he'd probably have needed more time than that. And on top of it, he'd have gone insane by the time he finished.

Just try it out for yourself. Also bring a volunteer in to do it on mobile.

Show nested quote +
On March 13 2019 06:55 darthfoley wrote:
Okay so I just spent an hour reading the last 15-20 pages. I get why y’all are annoyed with me for low activity but that’s just the way the cookie has crumbled. Don’t expect cases cuz I’m on one handed mobile

I don’t understand why everyone is shocked Ace got NK’d. I’m pretty sure he’s some old school legend and he had just beaten a lynch. Mafia was probably just afraid he’d come out guns blazing. TW was an obvious kill; TT I thought had been finally Town and doing the TT thing of being in his own bubble and pushing things that people didn’t interact with. Of any of them, he’s the guy I’d peg as dying for having correctly identified scum.

Definitely getting to the point where having vixax and Acro around w/ only one scum flipped on D4 is sus. I’m moreso sus of Acro because there was a lot of heat on him D1, he wiggles out of it, hasn’t really been scum read since, claimed blue and is still living. Compare that to Ace who survived one round of lynching and was immediately kaput. Plus he’s pushing me today instead of trying to figure out FF/Chez. I know that means nothing to you guys, but I’m easy lynch bait this far into the game (deservedly so). I still fail to see his issue with my handling of the mayor vote D1, but he tries to make that some coup de grace.

Part of me still thinks that we caught MZ warly day one and somehow talked ourselves out of it days later. He pulled out some ExO quote from his filter but misrepresented it for another easy lynch candidate. Also

On March 13 2019 03:54 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
On March 13 2019 03:40 Acrofales wrote:
On March 13 2019 03:37 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Acro and oats are either of you looking for reads on particular people?

I'm mainly looking for reads on you with this line of questioning. Any insight into the wagons of the day would be appreciated tho.

Those seem to be: you, TS, Chez, DF, maybe FF, maybe Slam.

I've had chez as town since d1, i wouldn't feel comfortable lynching into him until it was like 2v1 and I had a strong read on the other person.

I still think FF is scum.

I reread DF earlier today, i wouldn't put him as my number 1 scum read but he definitely pushed a lot of bad wagons that ended up on town.

I have no idea how to read slam

TS could be scum.

Also another note on rels: why in the world was rsoul shot instead of him? Like the whole mason thing pretty much confirmed her as town in many people's eyes but then scum shot TT and Ace instead of any other claims?


This is the most shallow reasoning of me being scum ever. In a game where ONE scum has been lynched. I haven’t been active enough to push wagons, and even if I did I’m part of a town that has almost exclusively pushed town wagons. Acro and MZ pushing me with little substance besides, “he’s inactive!” when we have two mad hatter sort of claims and neither one got targeted last night is poo poo. Sure it might be OMGUS but it’s apparently the last TL mafia game so sue me.

I feel like I have no idea what Rels or Mocsta have posted about anything. Rels seems too cordial and Mocsta too sensitive. But tbf I haven’t read huge chunks of the game.

From my understanding of how the claims went down, plus what SL said, Chez is probably scum and should be lynched.

Oats and Grack feel unconstrained from mafia agenda and feel Town. FF is probably legit unless they really are on some last game 3D chess. L I think ExO is just a town like me who got overwhelmed and decided they didn’t care as much as they expected to; we had similar reactions to a few events in the game.

Onegu/Wiggles/TS/etc I haven’t read enough of them to know. If you put s rope around my neck and forced me to choose, wiggles RP feels authentic and townie, TS has been so far under the radar that he may have become the radar



LOL THIS IS THE BEST ANALYSIS POST IVE EVER SEEN
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
March 13 2019 02:25 GMT
#7499
Also 99% likely to be wrong because why would he lie about it lol
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
March 13 2019 02:27 GMT
#7500
this needs to be nominated in the best case of 2019 category
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