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[M][T] Secret Hitler, Act I, Take II - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:19 GMT
#663
Kitaman are you around?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:23 GMT
#664
I am entertaining the possibility of just passing three cards.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:38 GMT
#665
The possibility of drawing FFF is 6/8 x 5/7 x 4/6 which is approx 35,7%
So about 65% of the time we hit at least one liberal (well i'd stop right away if we get liberal anyways).

If we happen to hit FFF the deck is resuffled.
Second fascist policy goes to krogan who i believe is town, he gets the investigation. I would trust the result. krogan can investigate kitaman.
Third fascist policy goes to kitaman, in case he is town. If not then we will do something else but we know kitaman (or at least one of krogan / kitaman) is mafia.

Is there anyone who believes that krogan is mafia? Because in my opinion from the presidents (if you think someone is mafia there) Grackaroni looks the worst for not passing FL instead of LL (passibg FL to prplhz is the correct play there). That's not much, but still a possiblilty, i would find it more likely that mafia are just rels/byj/kitaman/(prplhz).
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:39 GMT
#666
Wait no the deck is not reshuffled but the tracker hits zero and we can just pass Rels (which we would based on current info do anyways) and give me the 4th presidency, and in case that hits F too i can shoot hitler in da face.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:40 GMT
#667
The thing is we also get information about if someone has lied or not more accurately if we try to use most of the cards in the deck. If noone is lying then krogan is almost always town and Conversion is definitely town.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:42 GMT
#668
lolol i am actually not sure if it is the best play to use the whole deck right here.
Probably the only downside is if the last 2 liberal cards are in the bottom 3, or if we happen to elect hitler as chancellor after 3F.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:43 GMT
#670
Can we discuss my plan?
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:46 GMT
#672
happykrogan have you played secret hitler before?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 21:49 GMT
#673
Sentinel, what if there is a situation where the current president would get an ability by 2nd, 3rd, or so on fascist policy being enacted, but the policy is enacted by election tracker going to three, who gets to use the ability? I am not that familiar with the rules so it would be nice if we'd get a GM confirmation on what happens then.
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:05 GMT
#675
Why is there a decent chance that krogan is scum?
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:06 GMT
#676
I also have absolutely no idea why you think Rels is town....... Because he called you town?????????
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:09 GMT
#677
On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission.

Basically your town ppl are;
you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman

right?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:15 GMT
#679
On November 07 2018 07:11 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2018 07:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission.

Basically your town ppl are;
you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman

right?

No I'm pretty close to the same page as Rels.

I think the most likely team is Prplhz/Kitaman/HK

Can you elaborate here a bit more.
Why does Conversion's gov pass if this is the case? Or even your gov?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:26 GMT
#682
I mean we just downvote the next three governments until there is a liberal policy in the first two.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:27 GMT
#683
next nine*
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:30 GMT
#686
Meh, shit...
We downvote you, the next whoever that was, me -> 1F
We downvote next 3 -> 2F -> krogan gets investigation -> krogan investigates you (gets town - you're ok, gets scum, one of you 2 are scum and we re-evaluate)
We downvote next 3 (if you = town) -> 3F -> you get to choose president there

Now if this happens, we will re-evaluate there.
If there is a liberal passed anywhere on the path we re-evaluate there.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:32 GMT
#687
On November 07 2018 07:29 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2018 07:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On November 07 2018 07:11 Grackaroni wrote:
On November 07 2018 07:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission.

Basically your town ppl are;
you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman

right?

No I'm pretty close to the same page as Rels.

I think the most likely team is Prplhz/Kitaman/HK

Can you elaborate here a bit more.
Why does Conversion's gov pass if this is the case? Or even your gov?

Kitaman/HK were both pushing against Conversion which aside from you was why I ended up choosing Prplhz, so I didn't like that.

If this is town/town then maybe you are right and Rels/Byj are scum downvoting and one scum upvoted. But if prplhz is scum then I'm much more suspicious of Kita/HK who passed the mission when it was going to be a close vote. (Also if I was mafia then this is like your entire mafia team down voting a scum mission and all town upvoting.)
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2018 07:03 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
1. happykrogan - Ja!
2. Grackaroni - Nein!
3. Conversion - Ja!
4. kitaman27 - Ja!
5. Rels - Nein!
6. raynpelikoneet - Ja!
7. byj - Nein!
8. prplhz - Ja!

Honestly I haven't put much effort into analyzing anything recently though and I may be completely wrong just from looking at the second vote count. I recall Happykrogan kind of wavering his way into voting yes on this and being kind of suspicious of it but I don't see remember anything about Prplhz here and I don't see why scum prplhz would upvote this mission if you/conversion are both town.
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2018 10:32 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
1. happykrogan - Ja!
2. Grackaroni - Ja!
3. Conversion - Ja!
4. kitaman27 - Nein!
5. Rels - has been warned for not voting
6. raynpelikoneet - Ja!
7. byj - Nein!
8. prplhz - Ja!



I can't figure out your conclusion here. Can you put some effort at some point into well.. making a conclusion. Because to me it feels like you aren't really saying anything like "this is why i think this is true" instead of "this might be or this might not be".
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:35 GMT
#689
He is talking about first government and you just kinda explained why kita and krogan are not mafia together..
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:38 GMT
#691
On November 07 2018 07:35 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2018 07:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Meh, shit...
We downvote you, the next whoever that was, me -> 1F
We downvote next 3 -> 2F -> krogan gets investigation -> krogan investigates you (gets town - you're ok, gets scum, one of you 2 are scum and we re-evaluate)
We downvote next 3 (if you = town) -> 3F -> you get to choose president there

Now if this happens, we will re-evaluate there.
If there is a liberal passed anywhere on the path we re-evaluate there.


Do you think that's better than passing a Kita/Krogan pair with a 65% chance of a liberal card getting to Krogan and then doing a single draw rotation afterwards if we get FFF since that would leave the deck at 3F, 2L and then we can follow through like planned?

The problem is that's not going to necessarily be 3F 2L. If the last draw would have 100% chance of drawing at least 1L (unless someone is lying) it'd make perfect sense to do that, but i wanna cover possible "fuck ups" with at least [i]guaranteed[/] information.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
November 06 2018 22:39 GMT
#692
If i did know for sure that chance is 65% i'd take it but unfortunately i am not sure about you at this point.
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