|
On November 11 2018 23:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The point you are missing is that even if a fascist policy is enacted it is not the end of the world, often times with a good scum team if you just auto based on what happened the first or second time you simply just lose because you arent making reads instead of just autoing. I think it is quite possible prplhz showed face when he suddenly got elected and kitaman definitely showed face last mission and byj voted yes to kita's team when he had a scumread on kita. I dont care what he says now because it never ever says in his filter he reads kita as town -- actually it says quite the opposite.
Idk, do you think i am scum? It's kinda ridiculous if you do since there is no way in hell town leads this game 4-0 if i am scum since i have heavily contributed to every single government so far (and while i didn't on yours and kitas, i could have simply just most likely get both rejected and just lie that i got 3F on my turn or take 1v1 against well.. basically every player in the game).
nope I don't think you're scum I'm just curious, and your answer is satisfying. I think you're slightly more likely scum than krogan / Grack / Conversion, but that's more my fear of you than anything else.
|
I dislike that it's the second time that you took the time to explain why you absolutely cannot be scum when you're under absoluty no pressure though.
|
It's just so ridiculous that you even entertain it, although it doesnt really matter because there is no way we can lost this game.
|
On November 12 2018 00:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
It's just so ridiculous that you even entertain it, although it doesnt really matter because there is no way we can lost this game.
Mafia is a game of doubts  I'm pretty sure scum is kita prp byj
|
We really got lucky on the 2 liberals D2
|
The proposed government is President raynpelikoneet and Chancellor Conversion. You have to vote.
|
That's a no from me, Rels moved up to likely townie for me though
|
There is a 60% chance that me+conversion draw the last liberal (that is assuming noone has lied). Probably the best play is to no elect me, elect byj/prplhz + i dont care who, then pass the turn until grackaroni who will pick Rels, since they have over 75% with a full deck.
|
Why is nobody talking anymore?
|
Here are possibilities for what i think are the best plays:
1) we elect me and Conversion; 60% to get liberal right away. Aside from the fact i obviously still trust myself over anyone else i don't think this is the best play because 40% chance of failing is too much and if that happens it will give the investigation to someone else than Grackaroni and i do not want that,
2) We pass my team and elect one of prplhz' / byj's team with someone - basically whoever - as chancellor. I see this having 0% chance of enacting a liberal policy but i don't care because then we can pass teams until we will have Grackaroni + Rels. They will also have the whole deck and for that, to get even one liberal card the probability is ~75%.
3) We pass three teams in a row. Then we pass again until it's Grackaroni's turn. The probability of this either enacting liberal from the deck, or with Grackaroni, is 80%. The thing is Grackaroni needs to pick a liberal chancellor.
4) We pass three teams in a row, then we pass another three teams in a row. Then we wait for my turn and we will have a 100% chance of passing a liberal policy, if i pick a liberal chancellor (that is not Rels/Grackaroni). I understand people probably don't want to do this but that actually would be a 100% win right here lol.
This all is assuming people are not lying about what they got as president. My preference obviously is (4) but i am okay with (3) or (2) also. Can the townies in this game give their opinion on what do we do?
|
Ftr i am not gonna be around at the deadline, having a morning shift so i have to go to bed in like 7 hours. I'd prefer if people gave an opinion by then.
|
Obviously I would prefer to become president when it is my turn but I'm fine with doing one of Rayns plans. 3 and 4 sound the best.
If we do 3, I will vote yes to myself though, because I know I am town and it's basically the same plan with me as with Grack. If people prefer Grack I don't care as I think he is town.
|
Grackaroni is simply the most trusted person in this game atm. There is absolutely no way Rels had LLL and had to pass 2L and there is simply no way Grackaroni as scum enacts L from 1F1L at this stage of the game. Like there is technically a possibility that Grackaroni is scum but it doesn't make any sense at all given where we are at (4-0).
that's why anyone who is town in this game should never ever want to even vote for themselves over him.
|
Like Grackaroni being scum would make either you or Conversion scum or me scum (with one of you/conversion) and it just doesnt make any sense at all because i think all of us would make better scumplays than this.
|
*you or conversion scum with rels or me (+ grack)
|
we were at 2L 6F, now we're at 1L 4F.
don't we have an astronomically low chance of not drawing a liberal card?
1/5 we don't draw liberal * 1/4 we don't draw liberal * 1/3 we don't draw liberal = 1.6% chance assuming no one lied
or am I bad and not understanding card drawing probabilities?
actually thinking about it, you're right. assuming no one lied 4 is the best possible option. even if someone did lie, we'd be at a 4-2 and rayn would get presidential power
|
|
|
drawing liberal in next three cards is:
1-(fascists / all cards remaining x fascists -1 / all cards -1 x fascists -2 / all cards -2)
|
Grack is 99,99% Town and I am perfectly fine with voting him. From my point of view I am 100% Town, so if we go with 3 it would still make sense for me to vote yes on my own government. I don't care if no one else does because we pretty much have won anyways if we follow the plan with Grackaroni.
Or plan 4.
|
Like (yeah we are 5 cards in deck):
1 - (4/5 x 3/4 x 2/3) = 60%
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
