|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 06 2018 06:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I heavily disagree with your byj read early on. As i already said people who do scummy stuff are usually scum, and there is simply no reasonable explanation why someone wouldn't even try to properly play the game as town, espicially when asked to contribute.
Yet it happens all the time and you know it. I'm not saying it's good town play, but there are just as many examples where town players do absolutely nothing, as there are mafia. From my personal experience, newbie mafia players go out of their way to look good and comment on stuff that doesn't really matter within the first 24 hours of the game because they're overly excited about looking good, where as I felt that byj didn't fit that mold. It was basically a heuristic, until he started posting content to make it easier to determine what his alignment was. Now that he has posted more, I tend to agree that he doesn't look very good, but I stand by the original thought process.
On November 06 2018 06:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:I heavily disagree with your lack of conclusion in the Grack + Conversion / Rels thingy because i think, if you actually thought that through from liberal pov you should have realized there is basically no way Grack can be mafia with Conversion, yet every time you talked about the matter you coupled up Conversion and Rels together and i think you are trying to use that as disguise so you don't actually have to make a conclusion that might hurt you later on. Regarding the above, this is your list after the discussion about it: Show nested quote +Overall though, I think my trust ratings are better suited as tiers.
tier 1: krogan/rayn (myself)
tier 2: byj/prl/grack
tier 3: conversion/rels If you really think Conversion and Rels are mafia then why the hell is Grack in the tier 2? Because it would simply be the most retarded thing i have ever seen if Grack wanted to originally nominate two of his scumbuddies, one of which is Rels who is considered scum by almost every single person in the game. If you actually think Conv/Rels are tier 3 then Grack should always be town for you, and just made two bad reads at the start of his presidential turn. Once again we go there; you don't make any hard conclusions when you actually could make those, if you don't think your tier list is accurate the why are you even making one? The above happened before Grack wanted to pass on his presidental turn and you apparently townread him for it. You have also taken "pot shots" on purplehaze yet it seems like none of his answers gets you anywhere regarding him, well i'd say that's the case with you on others aswell but that is possible you could do that as town since there isn't much from a lot of players in the thread (aka anyone who isn't me or krogan).
This point is moot since I think I misread grack on day one and it's pretty pointless to try to argue a scenario that I don't think is likely, but you do realize that facist players can lie right? Grack threw out the idea of nominating conversion and rels, but he didn't actually nominate them, which is far more relevant in my mind. Just like a game of mafia, scum buddies can pretend to be suspicious of each other, but at the end of the day if they're not willing to vote each other then it really doesn't matter. Plus, I think it's a disservice to yourself to try to identify the entire scum team at the start of the game. I went with the players that I thought looked the worse and based my voting criteria on excluding those. There was also the Grack + conv Hilter breadcrumb thing from day one that was sitting in the back of my mind, but like I said, I don't think that's the case.
On November 06 2018 06:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Basically i find your reads very easy to make and based on them, if you believed in those reads, the lists you have made make absolutely no sense to me. You should know something is wrong when you have your reads and make them into a list, which should get you into reconsidering and / or trying to find more evidence. You do neither, and instead just post the list.
You say I don't reconsider, but I did reconsider if you compare my first list to my latest list. My reads on grack and byj have indeed changed. Either way, I don't think we're that far off with our current reads, except maybe conversion, so I don't need you to think of me as confirmed town as long as things continue to stay on track.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 06 2018 06:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Do you seriously think Grackaroni had the thought that he'd backpedal from nominating Conversion? Because i don't think that's a possibility given how strong he implied his read was (i agree Rels was never gonna get nominated most likely). Because if that was the case this would have happened:
1) Grack thinks: "okay i put my scumbuddy Conversion up there" (at least i agreed with his townread on Conversion back then)
2) "Well this is a super terrible thing to do because Rels isn't gonna be nominated anyways so i have to WAIT FOR HAIL MARY AND CROSS FINGERS THAT SOMEONE COMES AND TELLS ME TO NOMINATE SOMEONE ELSE"
3) rayn vouches for prplhz -> "THANK GOD I WOULD HAVE DONE A TERRIBLE MISTAKE FULLY KNOWING I DID ONE IF RAYN DIDNT DO THAT"
really kita? really? that's not how mafia plays.
On November 01 2018 23:37 kitaman27 wrote:
It does seem unlikely that grack would want to pair himself with another facist early on in the game.
I did say that it's unlikely in that exact post. Like I said, I wasn't entirely concerned about having the mafia team solved day one to have a scum read on both grack and conversion at the time. I don't think a facist grack necessarily had to anticipate someone else throwing out the prpl read. I think he could have nominated myself or prpl himself, but clearly you think otherwise. Either way, we're trending too far into hypothetical scenarios.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 06 2018 07:05 happykrogan wrote:
Is it generally a bad Idea to just sheep a good player you think is townie when you are unsure about your own reads?
Yes, it's usually fine to sheep another player if you think they are town, as long as you develop reads of your own eventually.
That being said, I do find it weird that you seem to lean fascist on Conversion and say that you don't want to read me until tomorrow, yet are planning to pass this one through.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Do you still think he was lying? If not, why would a town player have motivation to lie in that case? If not, what changed your mind?
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 06 2018 07:32 kitaman27 wrote:
Do you still think he was lying? If not, why would a town player have motivation to lie in that case? If so, what changed your mind?
EBWOP
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Those facists are up to no good. Trying to reject the very principles that our democracy is based upon.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 06 2018 08:23 byj wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2018 03:44 Conversion wrote:
why am I or Rels suspicious for flat out ignoring you on getting reads onto people? Did I say that? 
Rather than speaking in riddles, any chance that you could tell us what you do think?
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
What did you vote this cycle and why?
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
You realize that's only going to happen once every 8 rounds and it's unlikely to pass, right?
How do you intend to make any progress doing that?
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 06 2018 10:36 Rels wrote:fuck just as I got to a PC 
I assume you would have voted yes?
On November 06 2018 11:11 byj wrote:
So kitaman, why did you vote no? :~)
I think Conversion is a baddie. Apparently not many others share that opinion 
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Cool.
There was at least one facist who has been elected so far, which means they either chose not to sabotage or didn't have an opportunity to sabotage. I think the facist player would usually choose to sabotage if they have the opportunity, unless they are Hitler.
Unless things really, really spiral out of control it seems unlikely that we'd hit 6 facist policies. The path to victory seems to be pretty straight forward and we have a dt check as a safe guard for when we eventually hit FFF. If we get a town result, that gives us a decent way to avoid Hitler as chancellor for half of the elections.
Either Krogan or Grack for me this cycle. I'm going to re-read one more time before I decide to see if I can figure out who the elected facist might be.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Yeah I'm around, but I'm at work still so my posting might be a bit sporadic
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Yeah, give me a second to look it over.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
So assuming everyone is telling the truth, with 6F and 2L left in the deck:
35.5% FFF
54.5% FFL
11% FLL
0 % LLL
Which gives me a 65% chance of passing a liberal policy to Krogan like you say. If he passes liberal, then we're at 4 and it's pretty much trivial playing things out from there.
If I get FFF, then that means 3F and 2L is left in the deck, which allows us to follow through with your plan. Either we win the game outright or Krogan can check me if we get unlucky and reach a second facist policy. Then I can serve as Chancellor for every odd cycle since it would guarantee we're not electing Hitler and I'd have a town check on me to prove it. The only different from your plan that I'd suggest is that the player with the town DT check should be given the gun to shoot Hitler if we make it that far.
The only flaws I'm seeing are 3F, followed by 3F which would be really unlucky (10% * 35% = 3.5% I think?) or if someone was lying about which card they discarded, which still puts us in a solid spot with this plan since at worse, we're 1 card off.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 07 2018 07:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 07:11 Grackaroni wrote:On November 07 2018 07:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2018 07:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't like the plan because it goes really badly if Krogan is scum, and I think there is still a decent chance that he is scum. Thinking about the president powers I'd rather try Kita or Rels (would prefer Rels but I assume it will be Kita) and leave you with the check if there's a failed mission. Basically your town ppl are; you, me, conversion, rels, kitaman right? No I'm pretty close to the same page as Rels. I think the most likely team is Prplhz/Kitaman/HK Can you elaborate here a bit more. Why does Conversion's gov pass if this is the case? Or even your gov?
lol I got crucified for suggesting a Grack + Conversion team, yet HK said that he was going to nominate me about 5 times, before he ended up with rayn. That team really doesn't make sense.
Plus each of the last two votes reached majority with a single vote being able to swing things. On day two, I announced that I was passing your grack + conv team and then krogran decided to switch his vote to pass afterwards as well. There is really no reason for us to send it through.
Plus there was the whole prpl throwing my name out at the start of the game for no good reason thing, which I think shows that it's pretty obvious we're not buddies either.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
For single card draws, you're saying?
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 07 2018 07:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Meh, shit...
We downvote you, the next whoever that was, me -> 1F
We downvote next 3 -> 2F -> krogan gets investigation -> krogan investigates you (gets town - you're ok, gets scum, one of you 2 are scum and we re-evaluate)
We downvote next 3 (if you = town) -> 3F -> you get to choose president there
Now if this happens, we will re-evaluate there.
If there is a liberal passed anywhere on the path we re-evaluate there.
Do you think that's better than passing a Kita/Krogan pair with a 65% chance of a liberal card getting to Krogan and then doing a single draw rotation afterwards if we get FFF since that would leave the deck at 3F, 2L and then we can follow through like planned?
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 07 2018 07:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I will say something though, that i have been keeping to my chest for a while. Why were you more certain of krogan being town than me being town at some point during the game, kita? I mean the point when for example the prplhz discussion was going on. krogan did absolutely nothing during maybe 2 irl-days other than rewrote my posts.
I think Krogan deserved the town cred from the first election where he had the opportunity to pass FF and claim FFF, where as you had less of a choice. If I had the opportunity now, I'd choose you over krogan since you're still trying to find a path to victory and he has kinda dropped off, but I still think you're both town regardless.
I'm going to go ahead and choose grack. I have a pretty strong town read on him and I think the plan to put the DT check in rayn's hand is a good one. If we're lucky, we'll just hit the 65% liberal policy chance on my presidency and the game will kinda be over anyways.
Rels is obviously going for a hail marry with that team that makes little sense and he showed very little interest in the game early on to suddenly think he conveniently "solved" the game.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 08 2018 01:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2018 01:22 kitaman27 wrote:On November 07 2018 07:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I will say something though, that i have been keeping to my chest for a while. Why were you more certain of krogan being town than me being town at some point during the game, kita? I mean the point when for example the prplhz discussion was going on. krogan did absolutely nothing during maybe 2 irl-days other than rewrote my posts. I think Krogan deserved the town cred from the first election where he had the opportunity to pass FF and claim FFF, where as you had less of a choice. If I had the opportunity now, I'd choose you over krogan since you're still trying to find a path to victory and he has kinda dropped off, but I still think you're both town regardless. Why is it not possible krogan drew LLF?
It's possible, but I don't really think it's likely considering I think he's town. Aside from it being half as likely statistically and making grack's LLF draw even less likely, there isn't a great reason to lie about it since he's passing LF either way and you could get caught later in the game, where as the return is a bit of extra cred that people may not necessarily care about. Krogan has looked rather townie otherwise with the way he went about choosing his first chancellor and has a good voting record.
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 08 2018 01:26 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2018 01:22 kitaman27 wrote:On November 07 2018 07:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I will say something though, that i have been keeping to my chest for a while. Why were you more certain of krogan being town than me being town at some point during the game, kita? I mean the point when for example the prplhz discussion was going on. krogan did absolutely nothing during maybe 2 irl-days other than rewrote my posts. I think Krogan deserved the town cred from the first election where he had the opportunity to pass FF and claim FFF, where as you had less of a choice. If I had the opportunity now, I'd choose you over krogan since you're still trying to find a path to victory and he has kinda dropped off, but I still think you're both town regardless. I'm going to go ahead and choose grack. I have a pretty strong town read on him and I think the plan to put the DT check in rayn's hand is a good one. If we're lucky, we'll just hit the 65% liberal policy chance on my presidency and the game will kinda be over anyways. Rels is obviously going for a hail marry with that team that makes little sense and he showed very little interest in the game early on to suddenly think he conveniently "solved" the game. That makes no sense for you to plan for a investigation check if you think you, Grack, rayn and conversion are town. In that scenario, the chance that we have 6 F in a row is ridiculous. The other players are planning about it because they're not sure of our alignment. But from your POV it makes no sense
That's just the fallback plan. Like I said several times, "If we're lucky, we'll just hit the 65% liberal policy chance on my presidency and the game will kinda be over anyways."
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
