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Okay you posted again, pointing out a specific statement from Vivax.
On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why?
Please explain it to me. I tried to work it out, but my evaluation of the statement falls apart at the point where Vivax talks about a "Qatol made decision," considering the mafia didn't make a decision about HF, other than maybe roleblocking him.
Unless you are pointing out that the incorrect logic is a reason to trust Vivax?
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On September 13 2018 06:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Put together a little matrix with all the current alive players and their current reads (as near as I can tell). I had this feeling a lot of people haven’t really given strong reads or have simply called a bunch of people town which at this point in the game I thing is a sure sign of someone trying to avoid being noticed. A quick note about this, I have not included RoL since he literally has no posts.
Kelsier
Scum: Vivax Sergio prplhz qatol
Town: NA
Meapak
Scum: Rels
Town: prplhz
Rels
Scum: qatol
Town: Sergio rayn kelsier vivax
Qatol
Scum: vivax kelsier?
Town: NA
Rayn
Scum: kelsier
Town: Sergio Qatol vivax? Prplhz
Sergio
Scum: vivax
Town: NA
Vivax
Scum: Qatol?
Town: Sergio MZ
Prplhz
Scum: Qatol
Town: NA
Firstly, if you disagree with how I’ve classified your reads please let me know, it’s always good to nail down people on what they’re thinking. Secondly, a few things jump out at me. Rels has called a lot of people town and only has one scum read, Qatol, who half the remaining players have as scum so it’s a very safe read. I’m pretty certain Rels is scum at this point when pared with the other analysis I did. Another person who jumps out is Rayn. Along with Rels, he’s got a lot of town reads and more importantly they share Sergio as a town read. Sergio has been fantastically useless, has asked a loooot of filler questions, and has only one claim to fame which is a scum read on vivax. Rayn has Kelsier as a scum read but hasn’t really done much to push that. Vivax is also worth noting because he has the easy scumread on qatol but also has a townread on Sergio as well. So after looking at all this, what I’m left with is Rels: 100% scum. Sergio: 90% scum, Rayn: 70% Vivax: 50% (only scum if one of the other 3 is somehow town).
As a quick explanation for my thought process, what I look for right now are people pushing easy reads as scum, and people who are quick to call many people town. Scum push easy reads so they can blend in, which is why I'm not a huge fan of the Qatol votes, regardless of the validity of the case, if a lot of people are doing it you can be sure there are a few scum trying to slip under the radar. This is a nail in the coffin for Rels. Rayn has called a lot of people town, but most importantly Sergio who has done nothing to warrant this.
I don't have a scumread on kelsier. I do have one on prplhz. I'm also willing to vote Rels in lylo. I'm not going to provide my townreads unless they are under serious pressure, because I think it just hands the mafia information about the consensus most trusted players.
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On September 13 2018 06:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:24 Qatol wrote:Okay you posted again, pointing out a specific statement from Vivax. On September 13 2018 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:I am going to tell you a secret. Mafia never writes this: + Show Spoiler +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
can you understand why? Please explain it to me. I tried to work it out, but my evaluation of the statement falls apart at the point where Vivax talks about a "Qatol made decision," considering the mafia didn't make a decision about HF, other than maybe roleblocking him. Unless you are pointing out that the incorrect logic is a reason to trust Vivax? You think mafia!Vivax comes here on D2 and tells "holyflare night kill points towards Qatol" when, if he is mafia, he clearly knows that's not what happened? Like he makes an utterly "bullshit case" when he knows every single person in the game knows is bullshit if they have just looked at the day post....
Okay, fair point. Clearly I'm not seeing the forest for the trees on this one, and I'm willing to reconsider vivax based on what happens tonight.
If accusing Vivax isn't productive, then let's talk about prplhz. He latched onto Vivax pretty hard on day 2. In fact, he followed Vivax onto damdred after he made the argument you mentioned and his justification for latching onto Vivax was:
On September 11 2018 05:20 prplhz wrote:
Generally I find some people who
1) Are good at finding scum
2) Are town
And then I sheep them. That's really how I do. I rarely do a lot of analysis because I'm really not very good at it. But I wrote a few points on you that I myself find to be something I would expect more from scum.
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On September 13 2018 06:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Incorrect logic does not make anyone mafia per se, but like... If Vivax is mafia he HAS TO KNOW what really happened during the night because when you are mafia night is your time, you kill people at night. Do you remember a time when you didn't know who you nightkilled when posting the next day as mafia?
Sure you can argue "he is faking" but you can also argue "kitaman made as all town and this is jsut a bastard game" and i think that's almost evenly likely.....
I've only been mafia once, and we had a prominent team member (L) who didn't know the night kills; this was before quicktopics were used. That being said, I understand your point. I just wish you had made it earlier. I will back off of Vivax for now.
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rayn and meapak, I think you've reached the point of diminishing returns. Is either of you seriously pushing for the other as the lynch target for day 3 anyways? Remember, we have to coordinate our votes or the town loses.
On a side note, rayn, could you please call him prplhz and not purplehaze? It's hard to search your filter for your posts on him.
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On September 13 2018 06:56 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 06:53 Qatol wrote:
rayn and meapak, I think you've reached the point of diminishing returns. Is either of you seriously pushing for the other as the lynch target for day 3 anyways? Remember, we have to coordinate our votes or the town loses.
On a side note, rayn, could you please call him prplhz and not purplehaze? It's hard to search your filter for your posts on him. Who's the scum team Qatol? If it's not Rels/Rayn/Sergio(vivax) then who have you got? I would actually be pretty comfortable lynching rayn at this point but I think rels is a much better option.
I like prplhz for mafia. Your case on rels makes sense to me. I'm honestly not sure about the third one; this is where I had vivax. I think they have someone who noticed Koshi blueslipping, so it would have to be someone relatively perceptive. Rayn meets that criteria (and honestly, I think the town has already lost if rayn is red).
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If this is what he does as town, what does he do differently as mafia?
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On September 13 2018 07:32 raynpelikoneet wrote:
What did you want Qatol?
You answered it, but while you're asking, am I correct in thinking your mafia list is Kelsier and Rels? Who is your third?
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On September 13 2018 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
you, rels and serge, in that order.
On September 13 2018 07:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Kelsier, Rels, RoL
My best guess, in that order.
??? What happened here?
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On September 13 2018 08:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Vivax unfortunately doesn't give us much except for a scum read on Qatol. I'm torn between thinking he was killed for the rb claim or killed bc he had by far the most reasonable points against qatol. Nevertheless, I'm pretty comfortable I'm on the right track with at least my Rels read and rayn's insta vote on Kelsier looks fairly terrible.
What "most reasonable points" against me? This is the type of post that gets everyone confused later (and mirrors the posts made about HF and Koshi, which lack real substance). Please point to a specific post if you're going to say this. Otherwise, it just turns into the same game of misguided telephone I've spent most of the game trying to defuse. Are you talking about post 333?
As far as your Rels read goes, as I stated before, I'm inclined to agree.
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Just to be clear, ##vote Rels
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rayn, please calm down. There is no need to talk to anyone like that. All you do is make the game less fun for all of us. We are supposed to be a friendly community at the end of the day, or we don't wind up having a community at all.
All he's asking you to do is vote for someone you already have pegged as scum. Again, this is lylo. Town needs to vote overwhelmingly.
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On September 13 2018 08:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
whatever you are not getting majority on rels unless it is mafia, so take that into account, 100% truth.
Awesome. So are you saying it's lynch Kelsier or bust? Or are you only unwilling to vote for Rels now?
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On September 13 2018 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 08:41 Qatol wrote:
rayn, please calm down. There is no need to talk to anyone like that. All you do is make the game less fun for all of us. We are supposed to be a friendly community at the end of the day, or we don't wind up having a community at all.
[bAll he's asking you to do is vote for someone you already have pegged as scum.[/b Again, this is lylo. Town needs to vote overwhelmingly. ........................................... ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????
I meant vote for rels and not kelsier. You said yourself you think rels is mafia, albeit your #2 read. However, this is lylo. We need to focus our votes. I get that you and Meapak are at odds right now. However, you both agree that rels is mafia. All I'm asking is that you follow your reads. Again, this is lylo.
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With that, I unfortunately need to deal with RL stuff for the next day or so. All I can do is ask that town players consider the situation when making their vote. We cannot have the same type of vote that occurred days 1 and 2 happen again. A majority of 3 votes cannot happen.
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On September 13 2018 16:25 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2018 00:54 Vivax wrote:
Qatol so far feels like he's furthering scum agenda and both NKs point heavily towards him. Koshi loved me for pointing out that I didn't like the way he was going after kaley, and HF also was rather sure he was mafia. Both died, and Qatols followup is to try and get a lynch on me going regardless. From a strategic perspective, both NKs are bad for me, he doesn't take that into account.
It's also been a while since HF got killed N1 simply cause HF is a player everyone who knows him is always paranoid about and he becomes a potential mislynch as the game goes on. So a Qatol made decision would fit here, simply cause he doesn't know enough about HF.
Additionally, his confidence feels fake to me so far. I haven't been able to be confident about my reads and straightforward about what I want to do not cause I am mafia, but cause we had a lot of inactives for most of the game and that tells me that I have to be careful about whom I accuse since I can never exclude that mafia simply didn't post. It feels wrong to me to just look at the actives and find reasons to scumread them under these circumstances. But Qatol doesn't. Day 1 he easily finds reasons to vote off kaley, and D2 he easily sees it as an easy reason to go after me that I display this type of hesitance.
But as an active poster, I don't believe Qatol takes priority before Damdred, even though I see him working against me until the point he is lynched, should he not decide to let his scumread fall (which isn't implying that it would be a reason for me to retract my own read on him). I'm thinking why vivax was killed, he was town read by some and scum read by some, however his major scum read after damdred was Qatol and only activity was saving him. Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 08:26 Qatol wrote:On September 13 2018 08:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Vivax unfortunately doesn't give us much except for a scum read on Qatol. I'm torn between thinking he was killed for the rb claim or killed bc he had by far the most reasonable points against qatol. Nevertheless, I'm pretty comfortable I'm on the right track with at least my Rels read and rayn's insta vote on Kelsier looks fairly terrible. What "most reasonable points" against me? This is the type of post that gets everyone confused later (and mirrors the posts made about HF and Koshi, which lack real substance). Please point to a specific post if you're going to say this. Otherwise, it just turns into the same game of misguided telephone I've spent most of the game trying to defuse. Are you talking about post 333? As far as your Rels read goes, as I stated before, I'm inclined to agree. Show nested quote +On September 13 2018 07:05 Qatol wrote:On September 13 2018 06:56 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On September 13 2018 06:53 Qatol wrote:
rayn and meapak, I think you've reached the point of diminishing returns. Is either of you seriously pushing for the other as the lynch target for day 3 anyways? Remember, we have to coordinate our votes or the town loses.
On a side note, rayn, could you please call him prplhz and not purplehaze? It's hard to search your filter for your posts on him. Who's the scum team Qatol? If it's not Rels/Rayn/Sergio(vivax) then who have you got? I would actually be pretty comfortable lynching rayn at this point but I think rels is a much better option. I like prplhz for mafia. Your case on rels makes sense to me. I'm honestly not sure about the third one; this is where I had vivax. I think they have someone who noticed Koshi blueslipping, so it would have to be someone relatively perceptive. Rayn meets that criteria (and honestly, I think the town has already lost if rayn is red). These quotes show he is setting himself up to lynch whatever AFK is town and win, which is at odds with his previous approach to not lynching AFK's. These reason and night kill logic almost confirm qatol as mafia ##Vote: Qatol
I really don't have time for this, but, because the game is literally on the line, I'll try to make this point one more time in the brief moment I have:
This. isn't. helping.
I can't tell if you're scum pushing an obviously false narrative or a townie who has locked in on a misguided read and refuses to think about it any more. If you're the former, I need to prevent you from confusing the actual townies. If you're the latter, because it's lylo, I unfortunately have to persuade you to think about what you're saying, so here goes:
Your argument re: Koshi is reliant upon the assumption that the mafia team felt so threatened by Koshi's early posts towards me that they needed to use a night kill on him to protect me. For once and for all: what did Koshi say that was so threatening? I don't want to hear that he "accused me." That's how you're building up this false assumption in the first place. What. did. he. say? Is it really bad enough that the mafia would be threatened?
Re: HF, again: What. did. he. say? His argument was jumping on me for being uneasy about the lynch train on Kaley (think about it: is that really anti-town?) and a mistaken assumption that I jumped on a bandwagon on Kaley (I didn't).
Here's my point. This entire portion of your argument is based on them having strong, reasonable accusations. The problem is those accusations aren't. You are literally trying to put the entire game on me being scum because the mafia was threatened by Koshi saying I was "too friendly" and a weird, early day 1 deconstruction of a post. I'm not sure even Koshi believed his argument on that one (he certainly stopped posting about it quickly enough).
As far as Vivax goes, aren't you at least a little concerned that he might have been killed because rayn spent the whole night explaining to the thread (and me specifically) why he was basically a confirmed townie? And even if he wasn't confirmed by that discussion, maybe vivax was killed because the mafia wanted to roleblock someone else (meapak) without confirming vivax?
Finally, where did I ever say I supported lynching an AFK? Those quotes don't support that. You're making assumptions to try and support your narrative.
Again, the game is literally on the line. Please think about what you're saying. Your argument is reliant upon false assumptions and falls apart when they are removed.
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To any townies, please vote rels. I really do think Meapak has a decent argument on him and think that lynching him is the best (and only) chance for town to win.
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Think of it this way: if you believe Meapak is town and think his roleblock claim is legit, then the town most likely loses with literally almost any other vote except in the situation where a single vote is placed on a mafia member, unless mafia supports a lynch on their own member.
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Okay, I am back, and am incredibly disappointed with what I'm seeing (i.e., no real focus). Let me make this simple, because the town really only has 3 options:
1) Support Meapak's read of Rels
2) Convince Meapak and every other townie to vote for someone else
3) Vote for me
Considering the level of activity in the thread, #2 is extremely unlikely. Here's something else that should help on this point: I won't support a lynch of rayn. His actions on day 3 don't make sense for mafia. I'll explain more in a follow-up post in a moment.
As far as #3 goes, if you honestly believe the arguments being made, then, by all means vote me. But, I cannot emphasize this enough, read the arguments. Don't just focus on the fact that so-and-so "accused me." This is lazy, bad play. If, after reading everything, you still feel like I'm mafia (and then you probably need to reevaluate how you read people after the game), then, by all means. At least you approached things with the right mindset, even if you reached the wrong conclusion. Anything less is giving the game to the mafia.
Hopefully you will rule out #3 as an option as well. That means the town's only chance is a vote for Rels.
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EPT
