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Finland9675 Posts
Too bad. At least he wasn't a blue.
Anyways I really need to sleep now for the workday. Good night!
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Alright. disformation is scum. I'm almost 100% sure of it.
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Eh. I haven't been able to really keep up with the game so well up to this point, so I'll just say it: I'm the Cop and I decided to check disfo last night. He returned Mafia.
I was so close to claiming Cop several times last EOD, but managed to barely hold it in, because I wanted to use my power at least once. Luckily it paid off big time.
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One Miller already flipped so I suppose there could be another. Still, the odds are heavily in the favor of disfo being scum.
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On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.
Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.
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On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.
I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.
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On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos. Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead. Heres the thing. Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.
Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.
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On June 17 2017 19:42 ruXxar wrote:
Xatalos, ignoring your red check, who would you have lynched today?
I'm not 100% sure since my reading of filters / even the thread generally has been lackluster this game (unfortunately very busy in real life for a change). Ignoring the use of my check as a tool, I guess I would have looked at ruxxar or rayn again after the lynch. Then I started thinking more about disfo since he had voted me, didn't really do much worthwhile despite the activity and was slipping by unnoticed. So I might have looked at him more too, but he was more of a ??? read so I decided to just check it.
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On June 17 2017 19:47 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos. Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead. Heres the thing. Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum. Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess. Can you walk me through your rationale for your check?
I guess I already kind of answered that the last post?
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On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky.
I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead.
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On June 17 2017 19:51 disformation wrote:
mh actually i dont think a framer would frame me.
or a cop would check me over like tw or one of the inactives.
Yea I'd think the only realistic option would be that you're a second unaware Miller if you're town. Usually there's 2 of them from what I've seen. The odds are low though, like 10% or less. So I'm content our best bet is to just lynch you.
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On June 17 2017 19:53 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. nonoonno you always shoot the close counterwagon to scum. you cop check the inactives. hard to read. low volumes.
Not really. The lurky players are just a detriment at LYLO anyway, so it's better to kill them off immediately. Whereas somewhat active, but not widely townread players are likely to live until LYLO but it's often hard to tell their alignment so checking is optimal.
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On June 17 2017 19:46 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos. Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead. Heres the thing. Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum. Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess. I already made a case for why you can't be the same alignment. Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 18:33 ruXxar wrote:On June 16 2017 03:37 Koshi wrote:
Koshi (5): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, annul, ruXxar
ruXxar (3): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax
There is at least 2 probably 3 mafia in these 9 players and I am pretty sure it isn't ruXxar. So 3 in 7. And I am pretty sure it isn't Vivax or fefe. So that's 3 in 5. Doesn't get easier than that. On June 16 2017 03:39 Koshi wrote:
And both disfo and btdt are doing this same thing of not fully committing to scumread me but do it meh meh. I think btdt is more likely mafia over disfo though. Probably not both. And then HF is without doubt pushing mafia agenda the most this game. What a scrub cuz he is more likely town. Here's two posts of koshi that he made early. Looking at this list, and knowing that koshi is town, I would assume that there is definitely some mafia on the koshi train. I mean, Holyflare is like the EASIEST guy to sheep. If holy flare makes a push on someone, it's so easy to just ride on the back of his arguments and let him do all the job. Knowing that, I think koshi is right. There is one mafia here: Koshi (5): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, annul, ruXxarruXxar (3): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, VivaxAlso notice that there was two town wagons going. That means that mafia has no reason to pile up together, they rather split up to reduce risk.
Now here's another tidbit I want to throw out there. Theres no way that xatalos and disformation are scum together.Here's why: Look at this vote. Koshi is sitting comfortably in the lead as town, mafia are happy. Xatalos has 3 votes, but is not directly in danger yet. On June 16 2017 02:09 Half the Sky wrote:Vote Count - Day 1 Koshi (5): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, Vivax, annul, ruXxar, VivaxruXxar (3): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax Xatalos (3): darthfoley, Koshi, Skynx raynpelikoneet (1): Xatalos, sicklucker, Tumblewoodmarvellosity (1): Koshi, Tumblewood sicklucker (1): Palmar Palmar (0): Koshi, Skynxbeentheredonethat (0): KoshiEversince (0): sickluckerNot voted (8): Rels, Damdred, VayneAuthority, raynpelikoneet, AMG, marvellosity, Grackaroni, Eversince So what happens next? On June 16 2017 03:37 disformation wrote:
##unvote
##vote Xatalos The vote situation ends up like this: On June 16 2017 03:58 Half the Sky wrote:Vote Count - Day 1 Xatalos (4): darthfoley, Koshi, Skynx, disformation Koshi (3): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, Vivax, annul, ruXxar, Vivaxannul (3): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast ruXxar (2): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax marvellosity (1): Koshi, Tumblewood sicklucker (1): Palmar Tumblewood (0): ruXxarPalmar (0): sickluckerraynpelikoneet (0): Xatalos, sicklucker, TumblewoodPalmar (0): Koshi, Skynxbeentheredonethat (0): KoshiEversince (0): sickluckerNot voted (8): Rels, Damdred, VayneAuthority, raynpelikoneet, AMG, marvellosity, Grackaroni, Eversince There is no way Disformation would do this to his buddy xatalosSo the conclusion is this. If Xatalos is mafia, then Disformation is town.I'm very confident in this finding.
Hmm... I don't think that's necessarily true. It's more telling how the votes go very close to EOD, not what people do earlier on. You can always switch if needed (especially if you're not really committed either way), and if things go badly, you just gain cred by being "early".
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But other than that, it's quite unlikely we're both town I agree.
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On June 17 2017 19:55 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. So, are you going to solve the game today? Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious.
Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what.
Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy.
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Finland9675 Posts
On June 17 2017 20:05 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 20:02 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:55 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. So, are you going to solve the game today? Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious. Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what. Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy. Yes, but the best case is still far superior. We do not mislynch and scum have to shoot you. You should mind the outcome.
That is true I suppose. It's just been an exhausting couple of days.
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On June 17 2017 20:06 disformation wrote:
oh. just realized. scum is actually 1v1 me in a sense.
hilarious! =D
Rather the other way around 
+ Show Spoiler +Maybe a small chance of TvT. Doubt it though. I'll have to look at your filter closer today to make surer.
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On June 17 2017 20:10 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 20:02 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:55 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. So, are you going to solve the game today? Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious. Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what. Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy. I'm thinking that if you had a red check, you wouldn't give up this easily and be so calm about it. You should be kicking and screaming all the way to the gallows. Like, a cop is a HUGE asset to town. You were so close to getting lynched yesterday, yet you made no effort to even change the tide of the votes, know that you could play a critical role in winning this for us. My feeling is that if you were a cop, you would have put in way more effort yesterday to get out of a near lynch situation.
I think I played exactly similarly last time I was Cop and the main wagon at D1 end. I thought of claiming there several times too, but hid my cards as much as I possibly could, betting on the chance of an approaching reversal.
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Finland9675 Posts
On June 17 2017 20:18 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 20:13 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 20:10 ruXxar wrote:On June 17 2017 20:02 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:55 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. So, are you going to solve the game today? Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious. Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what. Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy. I'm thinking that if you had a red check, you wouldn't give up this easily and be so calm about it. You should be kicking and screaming all the way to the gallows. Like, a cop is a HUGE asset to town. You were so close to getting lynched yesterday, yet you made no effort to even change the tide of the votes, know that you could play a critical role in winning this for us. My feeling is that if you were a cop, you would have put in way more effort yesterday to get out of a near lynch situation. I think I played exactly similarly last time I was Cop and the main wagon at D1 end. I thought of claiming there several times too, but hid my cards as much as I possibly could, betting on the chance of an approaching reversal. If you are a cop, why didn't you put in a check on the person that was leading the counter wagon? In your situation I would've checked sicklucker. Sicklucker was the lead of a train on annul, as well as being trained on by holy flare. Did you think that all three wagons: Annul, Sicklucker and You were town? That would be quite masterful play by the mafia.
Well I didn't really see the case on sl that much. After annul flipped, I didn't consider it to be that impossible all 3 were town. After all there were so many non-voters / random target voters / no specific counter-push to sl, more like it was between me/sl/annul and gradually went to me vs annul. sl will be under pressure anyway in the coming days. disfo had basically slipped by under the radar on the other hand.
Btw I think this was the game I was talking about before: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/465098-guilty-mini-mafia
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Finland9675 Posts
On June 17 2017 20:21 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 20:13 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 20:10 ruXxar wrote:On June 17 2017 20:02 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:55 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. So, are you going to solve the game today? Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious. Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what. Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy. I'm thinking that if you had a red check, you wouldn't give up this easily and be so calm about it. You should be kicking and screaming all the way to the gallows. Like, a cop is a HUGE asset to town. You were so close to getting lynched yesterday, yet you made no effort to even change the tide of the votes, know that you could play a critical role in winning this for us. My feeling is that if you were a cop, you would have put in way more effort yesterday to get out of a near lynch situation. I think I played exactly similarly last time I was Cop and the main wagon at D1 end. I thought of claiming there several times too, but hid my cards as much as I possibly could, betting on the chance of an approaching reversal. you fail to mention that the guy who was lynched over you happend to be the gf.
Can't remember the game so closely anymore. What does that have to do with anything?
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EPT
