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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:13 ruXxar wrote:
Can parity cop choose himself as a target?
Depends on the game, but it's actually better to just pick targets from among the town. after all, you can eventually build a chain like this:
N1: Adam, result nothing
N2: Adam and Bob have the SAME alignment
N3: Bob and Charlie have DIFFERENT alignment
N4: Charlie and Dave have SAME alignment
then, during N4, Adam dies and flips town. this tells you that Bob is GREEN and Charlie and Dave are RED
it's very common for a pcop check person to get shot or lynched at some point, or for someone to be obvscum or town int eh chain
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:
On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
so lets start again:
town:
fefe
chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases I have a red check on both of them
I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.
Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.
BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd
MAFIA SHOT HIM.
Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.
Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!
I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.
But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out
this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory
now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks
they couldn't afford to let him live.
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
THIS GETS EVEN BETTER
We now know the wagon yesterday, Grack vs SL, was BETWEEN TWO TOWNIES. Now, at the time of the lynch, Mafia hadn't yet seen SL's claim. So they didn't know he was the cop. But Mafia actually has no reason to push Grack over SL, right? In fact, the "Grack voters/hammerers are scum protecting" theory is just bunk!
I think we gotta take down FeFe or Chez here, I think it's super likely one or both is Mafia, and Mafia took SL's claim at face value; we know now it's a "same aligns" and at the time that we read it we dismissed it as trolling, but THEY looked at that and felt FEAR. Oh man, this also averted an SL mislynch because they HAD to shoot him right away
this is actually great
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:22 Fecalfeast wrote:
Or, bh, we can assume mafia knows the setup and takes that as a claim but hey yeah let's lynch into the two people likely to be town.
We already had a miller flip as well
why would "I have red checks on these guys" be anything but a cop claim, if as mafia, you see that the RED CHECKS ARE ON TWO OF YOUR RED GUYS
man why am I even arguing with you, you're mafia!
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:23 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote:OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it: On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
so lets start again:
town:
fefe
chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases I have a red check on both of them I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks. Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things. BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd MAFIA SHOT HIM. Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target. Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL! I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez. But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks they couldn't afford to let him live. Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory.
hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away.
on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical)
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous.
no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:26 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:24 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:22 Fecalfeast wrote:
Or, bh, we can assume mafia knows the setup and takes that as a claim but hey yeah let's lynch into the two people likely to be town.
We already had a miller flip as well why would "I have red checks on these guys" be anything but a cop claim, if as mafia, you see that the RED CHECKS ARE ON TWO OF YOUR RED GUYS man why am I even arguing with you, you're mafia! Or you see that post, knowing chez and i are towns and that there is a parity cop and think HMm.. maybe sl has a same check on those 2 townies You'reso scum wowow
So what, your theory here is that mafia had a rolecheck on SL revealing his as parity cop, and I, as Mafia, with the option to either kill Grack or SL hwo I knew was parity cop, hung out in the thread partying it up, then voted Grack? what kind of ass theory is that
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:27 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:26 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:23 Chezitwo wrote:On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote:OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it: On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
so lets start again:
town:
fefe
chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases I have a red check on both of them I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks. Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things. BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd MAFIA SHOT HIM. Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target. Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL! I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez. But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks they couldn't afford to let him live. Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory. hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away. on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical) Because they know SL will claim if push comes to shove, you moron. Btw. wasn't there a VA comment which went something like "SL will fakeclaim anyways"? What's up with that?!
ok but like, that doesn't matter in my thoery, which is that the Mafia (which includes at least 1 of you and FeFe) learned about SL's identity overnight, like 12 hours ago, then shot him to keep him quiet.
There is a question as to whether Mafia would be able to push a lynch through over a claim, and post-claim SL would be docced if there was a doctor. So it's I suppose plausible that SL was known to scum to be a cop, and they did their best to keep pressure off of him during D3. But this eems like kinda a stretch to me man, quite a stretch!
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:30 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:26 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:23 Chezitwo wrote:On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote:OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it: On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
so lets start again:
town:
fefe
chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases I have a red check on both of them I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks. Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things. BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd MAFIA SHOT HIM. Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target. Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL! I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez. But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks they couldn't afford to let him live. Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory. hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away. on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical) Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out?
OMG READING COMPREHENSION
I AM POINTING OUT THAT
IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK
THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER
SINCE THEY DIDN'T
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK
SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM
ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER
ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY
LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM
THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA
I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:35 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, this isn't hard to understand dude. They can't expect to lynch him without him claiming. And that is what they do NOT want.
I'm not saying it's inherently right, i'm just mad he misconstrued what I said. surely you understand the chain of logic
but yes if we ALREADY assume mafia has a rolecop, there are two factors at play: 1, they want SL to die, but 2) they don't want him to claim.
this also assumes they rolecopped him during N2, since if they rolecopped him N1, they'd have shot him N2 100%
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:36 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:27 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous. no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks I disagree with this point. If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already. So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either: 1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing.
Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"?
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Oy Palmar come out and fight like a man
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:38 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:37 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:36 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:27 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous. no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks I disagree with this point. If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already. So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either: 1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing. Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"? Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already."
hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:38 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:37 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:36 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:27 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous. no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks I disagree with this point. If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already. So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either: 1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing. Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"? The same way we just did. But I really doubt they were so sure without a rolecop.
the reason we know he's a parity cop is because he flipped parity cop
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:39 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:38 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:38 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:37 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:36 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:27 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous. no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks I disagree with this point. If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already. So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either: 1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing. Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"? Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already." hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though I didn't say that he's "defintely a parity cop". I said that the only 2 logical assumptions to make is that he is either bluffing or is a parity cop.
ok fine but the logic still holds then. Mafia saw someone claim 2x redcheck on 2 of them, or 1 of them and 1 green, and the assumption that town would make is "oh he's just trolling" but mafia see sthis and his frightened and shoots him right away for being pcop or just profoundly stupid cop
if he claimed 2x redcheck on greens, I feel like this wouldn't have come to mafia attention, right? like remember we need osme way to explain the SL shot based on "Mafia somehow figured out he was blue"
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:42 Fecalfeast wrote:
Think of it the way I am.
Assume for a second mafia missed all rolecop checks/has no rolecop.
No blues have flipped or claimed.
If mafia knows the setup (my big assumption here) they absolutely could see sicklucker's 2 redchecks as a samecheck since you know both myself and chez are town (or godfather or framed).
??? why would mafia know the setup
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On June 23 2017 08:43 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:41 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:39 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:38 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:38 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:37 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:36 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:27 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:24 Chezitwo wrote:
Like, BH is painting a world were SL has 2 fucking redchecks and doesn't claim even when he is almost lynched. That is absolutely ridiculous. no the point isn't that he had 2 redchecks. you're literally lying about what I'm sayhing. The point is, SL had a "same" check between you and FeFe. right? I mean, what other crumb is there? it HAS to be that, unless you can find a different crumb? So his "I have redchecks on FeFE and Chez" is his crumbing that he had a SAMECHECK on you guys. But Mafia didn't KNOW that it was a samecheck, mafia thought it was two redchecks I disagree with this point. If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already. So the only reasonable assumption for mafia to make, is either: 1) is that he is a parity cop. 2) he is bluffing. Why would mafia assume "2x redcheck on 2 mafia" -> "parity cop"? Because "If SL had two redchecks as role cop he would've absolutely claimed already." hmm, actually this is a good point for thinking SL is lying about the 2 red checks. I'm not sure how this maps to "so he's definitely a parity cop" though I didn't say that he's "defintely a parity cop". I said that the only 2 logical assumptions to make is that he is either bluffing or is a parity cop. ok fine but the logic still holds then. Mafia saw someone claim 2x redcheck on 2 of them, or 1 of them and 1 green, and the assumption that town would make is "oh he's just trolling" but mafia see sthis and his frightened and shoots him right away for being pcop or just profoundly stupid cop if he claimed 2x redcheck on greens, I feel like this wouldn't have come to mafia attention, right? like remember we need osme way to explain the SL shot based on "Mafia somehow figured out he was blue" Mafia could know the setup
I don't think I've ever on TL played in a game, and I've played in a LOT of games, in which mafia knew the setup and town didn't; with the exception of semi-open mini games with like 3 setups and Mafia could infer it based on their own roles, but so oculd town from the list of possible setups
does this happen now on TL Mafia?
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
Yeah I think "Mafia knew the setup" is a weird assumption to make, like it's the kind of assumption that's obviously false
that you might make
if you were trying to pretend not to be mafia
by pretending to think something that mafia obviously wouldn't think
dumbtell
yes
it returns
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EPT
