[M][N] Generic Mini Mafia II - Page 4

On May 13 2017 00:36 Palmar wrote:

Btw, this is just you being wrong about me. I am one of the strongest proponents of intelligent sheeping on TL. It's not gonna be me that builds the best case every game. My job is to identify the best case and go with that.

On May 13 2017 00:50 Palmar wrote:

Then you just don't know me. It's like one of the things I take pride in.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23686540

But I cba arguing about it, it's not really relevant this game.

On May 13 2017 01:36 Prison Break wrote:
I'm having trouble catching up but I'll give my reads based on my vote analysis of day 1. I don't know people here so I can't make meta reads, so I'm going to make reads based on votes and on my own reference points of what scum does, since I found them to be universal across all sites, and while meta-based reads can be more accurate and detailled, there are some things that scum always does so I'm going to trust my ability to solve this game the way I usually do it. Either way, I haven't caught up yet, but I do have a few strong reads so far:

Grackaroni (2) - Palmar, sicklucker
sicklucker (2) - Prison Break, fuba
Vivax (1) - raynpelikoneet
darthfoley (3) - Damdred, Tumblewood, Grackaroni
Damdred (4) - darthfoley, LightningStrike, Holyflare, Skynx
Skynx (1) - Vivax

Not voting (0) -

Damdred is the lynch!



According to my theory that "we prob catched 1-2 scum, and scum is now trying to spread the votes so it's not obvious who it is and they can control the lynch at any moment", combined with the fact that Damdred was the lynch and flipped town, I want to look at the people that were on the vote, that were also a possible target.

People on the vote: darthfoley, LightningStrike, Holyflare, Skynx

Alright let's look at the reasons why they voted

So darthfoley has 3 votes, and Damdred has 4 votes, so at this point it's likely both are town because if they were scum, scum could've pushed the others harder, which makes me think scum could be between the people with 1 or 2 votes.

Townread on darthfoley, based on this analysis

Both Holyflare and Skynx were late on the Damdred lynch, so both are suspicious. darthfoley was also on damdred, but if damdred was scum he could have switched to another target rather than having 2-3 scum pile on the same person. There's probably a townie with like 2 townvotes in there, so why not use 1-2 scum to pile onto it, which also gives additional momentum for others to join and to form a big wagon? This makes my townread on dartfoley stronger.

Holyflare very looks bad for coming in and dropping the vote, Skynx looks bad for dropping the final vote.

As for LightingStrike, I like LightingStrike. He looks town. He's been calling out Holyflare and pressuring him a long time. I can't see it being scum/scum. I can see it being LightningStrike town, Holyflare scum.

I also like how LightningStrike pushes Sicklurker as well, I think if sicklurker was town he had been the lynch day 1, like it seems scum is just trying to steer direction away from him everytime so he doesn't get lynched. Sicklurker also with the 180 on me, first he townreads me and says it's likely for people from other sites to scumread him (aka trying to get me to drop my case against him) - then he goes "he didn't re-evaluate, so he's scummy". I did re-evaluate, I just came to the same conclusion. The fact you townread me at first after I scumread you is already weird, but then your 180 on me is even weirder, only makes sense from a scum PoV

Posts from LightningStrike such as "why you guys trying to settle on to lynching low activity players? Why can't we lynch HF?" seem like actively trying to keep town into the good direction, where as scum you would want to keep town going after inactives (because, then you can just up your activity and join the hunt for inactives. it's an easy strategy for scum to bandwagon on town being bad and imploding, so trying to keep town in the right direction is major townpoints.)

Let's look at an earlier vote-count:

vote-count 3:

Holyflare (1) - LightningStrike
Grackaroni (2) - Palmar, sicklucker
sicklucker (2) - Prison Break, fuba
darthfoley (2) - raynpelikoneet, Vivax
Damdred (1) - Grackaroni
Skynx (1) - darthfoley

As to be seen here, if we assume there's 2 scum between (holyflare, sicklurker, skynx), then it makes sense that Damdred was the counterwagon to it. This vote-count does not prove anything, but like I said it's highly likely 1-2 scum were between these, and we know darthfoley-damdred aren't it, according to my reads.

I want to look more into Skynx before I give me opinion - does this site have an ISO fuction? Right now I'm going control f people's names but it's not the most effective way in the world, ugh.. Though Skynx pushed both sicklurker and holyflare so based on connections, it's likely that he's town or bussing, so I'm leaning Skynx on being town

I also want to look into Grackaroni as well, but sicklurker pushed him though, so prob not a team

We should kill Sicklurker and Holyflare 100%, will vote either of them

On May 13 2017 02:12 Prison Break wrote:
I thought you said you didn't like his day 1 + made a few posts about how he could be scum, like early this day

On May 13 2017 07:22 darthfoley wrote:
Hasn't the deadline passed by like 1h30?

On May 13 2017 11:58 Skynx wrote:
Who feels like having a drunk chat? I might give you our qt link...

On May 13 2017 20:45 Holyflare wrote:
Hey ls can you tell me why you lynched best friend damdred and then dropped every iota of scum read on me to dislike rayn?

On May 13 2017 00:01 LightningStrike wrote:

I want to say Palmar but it's because his Day 1 wasn't really the Day 1 I would expect from Palmar (Palmar is known to be very strong Day 1 player but falls off later in terms of his strength) and the fact he entertained about potentially sheeping me onto HF should be sort of a red flag for a person like him.

I agreed with your conclusion that's all.

His reentrance wasn't pretty meh and thought he would be higher chance of being scum than df at EoD I will be honest on that. I think it was two town wagons EoD seeing how EoD played out honestly.

On May 13 2017 22:19 Holyflare wrote:
So you're keeping me as a scum read for later despite agreeing with me?

Also you are the one that started the damdred wagon. You could have picked any single person. Can you point to what posts of damdred you saw that were scummy?

On May 13 2017 23:19 fuba wrote:
Does LS always ask suggestive questions about innocent/joke posts, or is it just repeatedly in this game?

On May 14 2017 05:01 Tumblewood wrote:
@rayn: admittedly i have been skimming your cases but why are vivax and palmar confirmed mafia

On May 14 2017 05:07 fuba wrote:

Should probably stop that.

On May 14 2017 08:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Because LS is mafia. He jas been calling you and me scum all game and cant make up his mind. It doesnt bode well with him being town. He prolly has infuence which is scum qt.

On May 15 2017 03:56 Holyflare wrote:
what page does he berate you? i'm not reading 38 pages

On May 15 2017 03:56 Holyflare wrote:
but god damn was that game well hosted, it's sexy as fuck

On May 15 2017 04:02 Holyflare wrote:


this looks nothing like that game in the slightest, where's the rage?

On May 15 2017 04:13 Holyflare wrote:
LS, who do you think are rayn's partners?

On May 15 2017 04:50 Holyflare wrote:
so what do you think of palmar calling him confirmed town?